Could a single digit handicapper break 100 at Shinnecock?

[deadsolid...shank]

Four singles from my league (3 of us high and one low single) debated on what we would shoot in a scramble with Saturday's setup. It wouldn't shock me if we shot 100 as a group lol, but it would be fun to try!

 

No chance any of us individually would break 100.

 

That's an interesting question. What would a scramble team of four singles shoot?

 

I think as long as the team isn't composed entirely of short(ish) hitting players, they are low to mid 70's. Most decent scramble team scores are better than an individual pro playing his own ball. The outlier here being if no one is long enough to handle the forced carries.

[dpb5031]

There is only one way to answer this question: have a single digit play SH. Everything else is speculation, which means all of your opinions are correct. :-)

 

I've played there 3 times over the past 15 years. The fairways were narrower when I played, having been widened by Coore-Crenshaw recently, then tightened up a bit prior to this year's US Open. Greens are almost always fast and the wind is ever-present. I shot low 80s twice, and 78 in my best effort.

 

The fescue at Shinnecock is fair in most areas. Caddies are very adept at finding your ball. You can almost always extricate it unless you get greedy and take too much club. In fact, my home course has nastier stuff. The run-off areas around the greens (just over the back of #11 comes to mind) are very challenging and give everyone fits.

 

I'm currently a 3 hc and typically a very good fast greens putter. If I approached the round with the intent to break 100 I'm reasonably certain that I'd get 'er done.

[IThinkSo]

"Single digit" is way too broad... A 9 handicapper is different than a 5 is different than a 1. A legitimate 1 handicap with a good caddie who knows the course, probably. A 9, probably not.

[EKELLY]

I played there a bunch in my competitive days, so here goes. Same with Bethpage! Here's the drill: I don't care if you've played there numerous times, or a few days or a week after a major, you did NOT play either of those courses anywhere remotely near the US Open setup. A month prior we used to see paint lines down the fairway about 10 yards tighter on both sides, they'd stop mowing inside those lines. Didn't mow the primary rough at ALL for a few weeks. Rolling the greens is another thing altogether. They also increase the carry required to REACH the fairway on numerous holes, like they did at The Black, which killed some of the short hitters. Then I lived in Bay Hill for 5 years, didn't recognize the course come tournament time. Bottom line is, I shot quite a few low-70's rounds at Shinnecock and the Black, but I'd say the course was 10-12 shots harder for the US Open's, easily!....I was a heavy plus handicap back then, a round in the mid-80's would have been acceptable.....

[nsxguy]

Four singles from my league (3 of us high and one low single) debated on what we would shoot in a scramble with Saturday's setup. It wouldn't shock me if we shot 100 as a group lol, but it would be fun to try!

 

Just when I thought this thread couldn't get any sillier,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :cheesy:

[imakaveli]

Without guys spotting balls probbaly even 200...

[Jay ZG]

We heard the same thing about Bethpage Black. That was the apex of difficulty 2009.

 

Funny I was talking to my buddy about this yesterday after our round. He's a 3 index and played Bethpage Black from the tips a few years back, said he played really well and shot an 88. This was not in PGA condition, just a regular day from the back tees.

[EKELLY]

We heard the same thing about Bethpage Black. That was the apex of difficulty 2009.

 

Funny I was talking to my buddy about this yesterday after our round. He's a 3 index and played Bethpage Black from the tips a few years back, said he played really well and shot an 88. This was not in PGA condition, just a regular day from the back tees.

Tough course, unless you have 280, accurate and consistent. And that's just the first phase of the test......

[Outlier]

I am curious as to your thought process? So a tour guys index says he's 8 shots better than me, are you saying that as slope rating increases (course gets more difficult) my index gets higher but the tour guy's doesn't? Wouldn't we both shoot higher on harder courses? Isn't that the whole point of the handicap system?

Your index does not change but your course handicap would go up more than the pros on a difficult track(high slope).

 

For example

If you have a 5.74 index and the pro is +5.74

on a 118 slope course your course handicap is 6 and the pro's is +6. you get 12 strokes in the match

on a 145 slope you get a 7 course handicap and the pro is +7. 14 strokes apart

 

The gap slowly gets bigger as slope increases, but if I recall the scoring average on Saturday was ~75, so we're talking 24 strokes apart to break 100.

Wouldn't that require a slope of ~400? (I didn't check the math so its probably wrong, but you get the idea)

 

Thank God......somebody setting it straight. I used numbers for illustrative purposes only, thank you for using more precise actual numbers to illustrate the point. it is just crazy talk to say a real 2 or 3 handicapper can't break 100. Pure hyperbole.

[MadGolfer76]

I think I could do it. Yeah...

[jons1]

yes... anyone can break 100. you could shoot 101, 102, even 103.... the options are endless...

[Shilgy]

I'm not saying a 3 CAN'T do it. I'm saying this 3, me, probably would not. The normal slope and rating are thrown out the window when the course has a setup like we saw Saturday at the Open.

[jasonfish11]

I'm not saying a 3 CAN'T do it. I'm saying this 3, me, probably would not. The normal slope and rating are thrown out the window when the course has a setup like we saw Saturday at the Open.

 

True about the course rating being out the window. But good news for us is we can get a good estimate based on what happened.

 

Course rating = x

Average score = 76 (on toughest day)

Average handicap of players = +6? (Probably 1-2 too generous given 56 or so random).

 

So at worst the course rating is 82.

 

Yeah how CAN (not will) a 3 handicap possibly break 100 here? What a joke of a question. If they shoot their handicap they are breaking 90. So that means a 3 handicap has 10 shots to spare at least on their handicap.

 

I'm amazed how many people can't use simple logic.

 

 

[IThinkSo]

I'm not saying a 3 CAN'T do it. I'm saying this 3, me, probably would not. The normal slope and rating are thrown out the window when the course has a setup like we saw Saturday at the Open.

 

True about the course rating being out the window. But good news for us is we can get a good estimate based on what happened.

 

Course rating = x

Average score = 76 (on toughest day)

Average handicap of players = +6? (Probably 1-2 too generous given 56 or so random).

 

So at worst the course rating is 82.

 

Yeah how CAN (not will) a 3 handicap possibly break 100 here? What a joke of a question. If they shoot their handicap they are breaking 90. So that means a 3 handicap has 10 shots to spare at least on their handicap.

 

I'm amazed how many people can't use simple logic.

 

In theory, yes. But Shinnecock is visually intimidating. I've seen scratch players who can't break 80 in tournaments while playing on relatively easy courses. It's not always X's and O's, it comes down to each individual player. And are we talking about playing DURING the tournament on Saturday with people watching and cameras around? What many people fail realize is, tournament condition PGA Tour courses are designed to compound mistakes and run your score up before you know it.

[jasonfish11]

I'm not saying a 3 CAN'T do it. I'm saying this 3, me, probably would not. The normal slope and rating are thrown out the window when the course has a setup like we saw Saturday at the Open.

 

True about the course rating being out the window. But good news for us is we can get a good estimate based on what happened.

 

Course rating = x

Average score = 76 (on toughest day)

Average handicap of players = +6? (Probably 1-2 too generous given 56 or so random).

 

So at worst the course rating is 82.

 

Yeah how CAN (not will) a 3 handicap possibly break 100 here? What a joke of a question. If they shoot their handicap they are breaking 90. So that means a 3 handicap has 10 shots to spare at least on their handicap.

 

I'm amazed how many people can't use simple logic.

 

In theory, yes. But Shinnecock is visually intimidating. I've seen scratch players who can't break 80 in tournaments while playing on relatively easy courses. It's not always X's and O's, it comes down to each individual player. And are we talking about playing DURING the tournament on Saturday with people watching and cameras around? What many people fail realize is, tournament condition PGA Tour courses are designed to compound mistakes and run your score up before you know it.

 

The question posed is "COULD" a ...

 

Not WOULD a ...

 

I promise you if there was any way to test it, putting money on an honest 3 handicap golfer at Shinnecock in the conditions they had on Thursday to break 100 would result in a positive return if you could make the same bet large amounts of the time.

 

Would you win every bet? No of course not, but you would win more than you would lose.

 

So again the answer is over and it's been answered. Yes a single digit handicap CAN break 100 in those conditions. Anyone arguing otherwise is either really terrible at math, logic, golf or some combination of the 3.

[IThinkSo]

I'm not saying a 3 CAN'T do it. I'm saying this 3, me, probably would not. The normal slope and rating are thrown out the window when the course has a setup like we saw Saturday at the Open.

 

True about the course rating being out the window. But good news for us is we can get a good estimate based on what happened.

 

Course rating = x

Average score = 76 (on toughest day)

Average handicap of players = +6? (Probably 1-2 too generous given 56 or so random).

 

So at worst the course rating is 82.

 

Yeah how CAN (not will) a 3 handicap possibly break 100 here? What a joke of a question. If they shoot their handicap they are breaking 90. So that means a 3 handicap has 10 shots to spare at least on their handicap.

 

I'm amazed how many people can't use simple logic.

 

In theory, yes. But Shinnecock is visually intimidating. I've seen scratch players who can't break 80 in tournaments while playing on relatively easy courses. It's not always X's and O's, it comes down to each individual player. And are we talking about playing DURING the tournament on Saturday with people watching and cameras around? What many people fail realize is, tournament condition PGA Tour courses are designed to compound mistakes and run your score up before you know it.

 

The question posed is "COULD" a ...

 

Not WOULD a ...

 

I promise you if there was any way to test it, putting money on an honest 3 handicap golfer at Shinnecock in the conditions they had on Thursday to break 100 would result in a positive return if you could make the same bet large amounts of the time.

 

Would you win every bet? No of course not, but you would win more than you would lose.

 

So again the answer is over and it's been answered. Yes a single digit handicap CAN break 100 in those conditions. Anyone arguing otherwise is either really terrible at math, logic, golf or some combination of the 3.

 

I wasn't a fan of the way the question was phrased to begin with. A single digit handicap is 1-9, which is a huge difference. Technically, a 9 handicap should be able to break a 100 at Shinnecock, but I'm not sure that even most 9 handicaps could under tournament conditions.

[widow-maker]

Also included in the OP's original post was "from the appropriate tees". So, there wouldn't be any situation where you couldn't drive far enough to clear the rough and you wouldn't necessarily be playing 520 yard par 4's or 260 yard par 3's. We're talking everybody's normal distances. So, it then comes down to how straight you hit the ball and how well you can handle chipping and putting to very difficult greens. Which is pretty much the same problem that the pro's were confronted with.

[deathbymuffin]

Probably not if I played from the same tees as the pros. The closest I've come to playing in those types of conditions is when I played Torrey Pines South the Monday following the Farmers (7500ish yards and hellacious rough). I shot 95 as a 4.8 handicap and I felt I hit the ball reasonably well.

 

If I played it at 6300-6500 yards, I'm reasonably certain I'd break 100.

[Matchplay10033]

I am a 4 and would be lucky to shoot a 120 with that set up. I played Bethpage and shot an 85... playing the ball down but that was not under US Open conditions. The ball was sticking on the greens.... there was no rough or tricked out pin positions.

[EKELLY]

I'm not saying a 3 CAN'T do it. I'm saying this 3, me, probably would not. The normal slope and rating are thrown out the window when the course has a setup like we saw Saturday at the Open.

 

True about the course rating being out the window. But good news for us is we can get a good estimate based on what happened.

 

Course rating = x

Average score = 76 (on toughest day)

Average handicap of players = +6? (Probably 1-2 too generous given 56 or so random).

 

So at worst the course rating is 82.

 

Yeah how CAN (not will) a 3 handicap possibly break 100 here? What a joke of a question. If they shoot their handicap they are breaking 90. So that means a 3 handicap has 10 shots to spare at least on their handicap.

 

I'm amazed how many people can't use simple logic.

 

In theory, yes. But Shinnecock is visually intimidating. I've seen scratch players who can't break 80 in tournaments while playing on relatively easy courses. It's not always X's and O's, it comes down to each individual player. And are we talking about playing DURING the tournament on Saturday with people watching and cameras around? What many people fail realize is, tournament condition PGA Tour courses are designed to compound mistakes and run your score up before you know it.

Exactly!....

[Ferguson]

I'm not saying a 3 CAN'T do it. I'm saying this 3, me, probably would not. The normal slope and rating are thrown out the window when the course has a setup like we saw Saturday at the Open.

 

 

I think you could do it.

[TheCityGame]

I am a 4 and would be lucky to shoot a 120 with that set up. I played Bethpage and shot an 85... playing the ball down but that was not under US Open conditions. The ball was sticking on the greens.... there was no rough or tricked out pin positions.

So, you think it was playing roughly 35 strokes harder than whatever tees you played Bethpage. And if you would be lucky to shoot 120, maybe a scratch would shoot 115, 45 strokes over par.

 

New leader in the clubhouse, ladies and gentleman.

 

FWIW, I've played Bethpage plenty of times and I've never seen it have "no rough". Not even sure what you mean by that.

[Shilgy]

Oh wait, it's the mythical wrx single digit? Any tees any time baby. Koepka would have had no chance. :)

[nsxguy]

Frankly, I think any 5 handicapper who thinks he couldn't possibly do it,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, may not be a legitimate 5 anyway,,,,,,,,,,,, or at the very least has a massive confidence issue which,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, at 5 or less, seems impossible,,,,,,,,,, :wacko:

 

[aabcuue]

I think I could, but you never know would would happen with the pins on 13 and 15.

 

For handicap purposes, according to the USGA, Shinnecock is easier for a bogey golfer than some of the courses I have played this summer. I bet some of the Shinnecock members HC's travel pretty well.

 

Course Rating and Slope Database™

 

Course Rating Search Results

 

 

Club/Course Name City, State Shinnecock Hills Golf Club Southampton, NY Tee Name USGA Course Rating (18) Slope Rating (18) Front (9) Back (9) Bogey Rating (18) Gender Red 74.4 140 37.6 / 142 36.8 / 137 100.1

M Green 72.3 134 36.3 / 136 36.0 / 132 97.2 M Blue 70.3 129 35.2 / 130 35.1 / 127 94.2 M White 67.1 125 33.7 / 125 33.4 / 124 90.2 M

Club/Course Name City State Breckenridge Golf Club - Beaver/Bear Breckenridge CO

Tee Name USGA Course Rating (18) Slope Rating (18) Front (9) Back (9) Bogey Rating (18) Gender Gold 73.9 151 36.9 / 155 37.0 / 147 102.1 M Blue 71.7 139 35.9 / 141 35.8 / 136 97.4 M Green 69.9 129 35.0 / 127 34.9 / 131 93.9 M Silver 67.9 119 33.8 / 114 34.1 / 123 89.9 M Red 63.7 113 31.6 / 113 32.1 / 113 84.7 M Silver 73.9 148 36.9 / 150 37.0 / 146 108.8 F Red 69.6 134 34.5 / 133 35.1 / 134 101.1 F

 

Might want to remember the US Open conditions were much tougher than the MET/USGA regular ratings.

 

Rough was allowed to grow many weeks after play stopped and stimp was faster by at least 2to3. Only the fairways were pinched in tighter last fall.

[aabcuue]

Do you think a single digit handicapper could break 100 at Shinnecock during Saturdays US open conditions playing the appropriate tees?

 

I think they could but it would be very hard. My dad who's a 18 handicap thinks he could break 90 from the appropriate tees in those conditions. I told him he was nuts.

 

As one who was there inside the ropes watching multitude of pros shoot upper 80s and 90s, no chance.

 

When I saw the USGA setup & test put a few greens, knew the scoring was going to be high. After seeing the official pin placements for Saturday and Sunday plans it was confirmed. Unfortunately, the picts don't show how close pins are to swales and dropoffs. You have to cross reference with one of the yardage books that was available to check.

 

fyi, the pro did play w/ marshalls/ shotlink spotting balls often up to 24/hole in the landing areas.

 

Saw many shots were I saw ball land less than 5yds away. Unless you literally were 6" or less away you would have Zero % of finding it, never mind seeing it. Yes, I was nearly hit many times/day on blind tee shots. But was the only one to find every ball.

 

Remember fescue was hip high at places and flatten down from wind @others. Many a ball buried or appeared if someone had walked on it.

 

Saturday, the wind was bad. On our hole it changed direction 5x and the strength change constantly. Being next to the Peconic Bay and the Atlantic Ocean on 2 sides didn't help.

 

Toss in many blind heavily elevated and tilted greens w/ false fronts &/or backs. Some greens safe landing area was 3-4yds at max w/ only 1shot shape to stay on a green.

 

Fyi, 15th green problem was not enough grass around the hole.

 

Fwiw, be glad you didn't say Friday. It only rained heavily for 2+hrs w/ 20-30mph winds all day that changed direction repeatedly.

[jmvargas]

i'm finding threads of this type to be ridiculous and a waste of time as they are all subjective...

 

...and i have no doubt that:

 

1) a scratch golfer will break 85 at Augusta

 

2) a single digit handicapper will break 100 at Shinnecock

 

my only condition are these are genuine and not vanity handicaps..

 

and forget about duplicating tournament conditions exactly because it will be impossible...you can only specify that they do it from the same tees..

 

and i'm not saying that 100% of those who try will do it but SOMEONE certainly will..

 

heck i'm almost sure i could have done it when i was a 3 hdcp in the late 60s and 70s but we'll never know for sure now..

[aabcuue]

I am a 4 and would be lucky to shoot a 120 with that set up. I played Bethpage and shot an 85... playing the ball down but that was not under US Open conditions. The ball was sticking on the greens.... there was no rough or tricked out pin positions.

 

Zero comparison of Black in normal conditions vs. Barclays/Northern Trust vs. US Open.

 

Normal is quite doable rough w/ much wider fairways, slower greens and shorter forced carries.

 

Barclays is 3-4" rough a bit tighter fairways and faster greens 10.5-11.25 stimp.

 

US Open was 275-285yd forced carries to get out of rough, mid-thigh off fairway, belly button 2nd cut and 12-13 stimp.

Multiple balls would stop in fescue before reaching ground.

[cdnglf]

Do you think a single digit handicapper could break 100 at Shinnecock during Saturdays US open conditions playing the appropriate tees?

 

I think they could but it would be very hard. My dad who's a 18 handicap thinks he could break 90 from the appropriate tees in those conditions. I told him he was nuts.

 

As one who was there inside the ropes watching multitude of pros shoot upper 80s and 90s, no chance.

 

But this isn't what actually occurred.

[nsxguy]

I think I could, but you never know would would happen with the pins on 13 and 15.

 

For handicap purposes, according to the USGA, Shinnecock is easier for a bogey golfer than some of the courses I have played this summer. I bet some of the Shinnecock members HC's travel pretty well.

 

Course Rating and Slope Database™

 

Course Rating Search Results

 

 

Club/Course Name City, State Shinnecock Hills Golf Club Southampton, NY Tee Name USGA Course Rating (18) Slope Rating (18) Front (9) Back (9) Bogey Rating (18) Gender Red 74.4 140 37.6 / 142 36.8 / 137 100.1

M Green 72.3 134 36.3 / 136 36.0 / 132 97.2 M Blue 70.3 129 35.2 / 130 35.1 / 127 94.2 M White 67.1 125 33.7 / 125 33.4 / 124 90.2 M

 

Club/Course Name City State Breckenridge Golf Club - Beaver/Bear Breckenridge CO

 

Tee Name USGA Course Rating (18) Slope Rating (18) Front (9) Back (9) Bogey Rating (18) Gender Gold 73.9 151 36.9 / 155 37.0 / 147 102.1 M Blue 71.7 139 35.9 / 141 35.8 / 136 97.4 M Green 69.9 129 35.0 / 127 34.9 / 131 93.9 M Silver 67.9 119 33.8 / 114 34.1 / 123 89.9 M Red 63.7 113 31.6 / 113 32.1 / 113 84.7 M Silver 73.9 148 36.9 / 150 37.0 / 146 108.8 F Red 69.6 134 34.5 / 133 35.1 / 134 101.1 F

 

Might want to remember the US Open conditions were much tougher than the MET/USGA regular ratings.

 

Rough was allowed to grow many weeks after play stopped and stimp was faster by at least 2to3. Only the fairways were pinched in tighter last fall.

 

Just for clarity's sake.