Scoring Expectations for Par 5's

[oikos1]

If you're not going after par 5's, you just don't have a scoring mentality. Yet. Even the shortest of knockers should have anywhere from a wedge to 7 iron for their third shot, so attack, attack, attack!

 

[Justsomeguy]

Maybe it's the word "expectation." That indicates a mathematical prediction, not a hope or a goal or a strategy.

If your club's par 5's average 5.25 strokes for single digits, and you "expect" to average 4, maybe that's unjustified. So again, hey, why not expect a 3. Lol.

[msg]

I averaged my par 5 scoring for the two par 5's that I have at our home course (9 hole course). The first one I am averaging 5.03 and the second one is 5.6. The second one is harder off the tee as there is ob left and right. For the second shot its all ob on the right to the green. The first one is more forgiving with water of the right until 100 yards to the green and then free space on the left all the way. Both plays 500 yards off the regular tees. To be honest I just expect myself to score nothing more than a bogey on these two. I used to expect par on these two all the time and I find that I get too much pressure when playing them.

[davep043]

I said early on the I expect to be even par on the four par-5 holes, but that's an after-the-fact evaluation. I try not to set specific expectations that might influence my shot selection, to me that can be counterproductive. Everyone hits poor shots at times, consider a poor drive and a forced layup to 170 yards out. Do I choose to attack a tight pin because I expect (emotionally feel a need) to make birdie, or do I play to the middle of the green, because that will give me the best average score over the long term? I know that the more tough pins I attack from that range, the worse my score will be. I'm generally trying to play each shot in the way that will give me the lowest score, long term average. Certainly shot selection can change based on the situation, but I don't want it to change because of some pre-conceived expectation for a specific score.

[GSDriver]

Genrically I expect to have a reasonable chance at birdie on Par 5s, some I try to get home in two...as I only play about once a week, there's no laying up.

[SNIPERBBB]

There's a difference between preround expectations and what happens on the course. Everyone has a plan till they get hit in the face. If you're laying 2 from 100+ you're delusional to expect birdie.

[b.helts]

There is not a person here, including me, that would argue with your conclusion. But laying 2 from 100+ yards during play is not equal to Scoring Expectations for Par 5s.

 

So I don’t understand why you chose to make the point you did.

[SNIPERBBB]

@b.helts read the last half of @davep043 comment

[b.helts]

OK. Then I guess I don’t know why davep043 made that point.

 

It should be a given. It’s like saying if you’re putting for 5 you can’t make 4.

[nsxguy]

 

Yes, a lot depends on conditions. But you "expect" to birdie from 50 yards and in ? Personally I'd phrase it as I expect to have a reasonable putt for birdie from that range.

As for the par 5s a reasonable expectation for me would be even par, probably 1 birdie and 1 bogie.

But I play (now) the same way you do. I used to lay up to a full wedge and try to make birdie on a "short par 3" but I was "taught" by posts here on wrx to get as close to the green on the par 5s as possible while still not taking too many chance with penalty areas or OB and such. I gave that method a try and it's worked out very well. Noticeably more makeable birdie putts.

Now to be fair, laying up to that full wedge is a much easier layup because one would be hitting a 6-9 iron to that distance. One would often have to hit a considerably longer club to get "as close as possible" and that, in itself, is a little risky. But net-net, getting as close as possible, has resulted in a LOT more makeable putts than "laying up to a full wedge".

 

[davep043]

My point is simple. Some people can divorce their "expectation" from their decision-making. That's a good thing. Others remain married to the expectation, and make foolish choices in trying to achieve that expectation. That's NOT a good thing. To me, expectations regarding a score on a hole not yet started take a player away from the process, and focus too much on the result. For me, I want to work the process, and let the result be whatever it is. That is the best way for me to play golf.

[b.helts]

OK. That makes perfect sense. I had no idea that there are people that play the way you described.

 

Expectation changes shot to shot. It has to, or so I thought.

[SNIPERBBB]

Can't help the nutcases :P I just take their money.

[b.helts]

lol

This is an opportunity for a “Today I Learned” conversation.

[SNIPERBBB]

#whatilearnedtoday is live 8-10am est on Mojo 5.0

[davep043]

I try to encourage my partners to plan and play one shot at a time, while our opponents are salivating over the birdie they're going to make, before they've even put a tee in the ground.

[Justsomeguy]

His point is well taken because it comports with a realistic expectation.

Unless your HC is scratch or better, expecting to birdie anything is real hubris.

[scooterhd2]

For me there was a crazy gap is scoring disparity from a high handicapper to a single digit handicapper on par 5s. When I was an 18+, par 5s would often be my worst holes. Usually needed 3 great shots to be on the green. Was more likely that I was going to one really poorly, which would just lead to more poor shots. I remember thinking anything under 8 was great. Now as a 7 hadnicap, par 5s are some of the better scoring holes. Hoping to at least come away with a score of par, although I am most likely to birdie a par 5 and least likely to bogey it.

[RichieHunt]

On Tour if you're scoring average on par-5's is 4.6 or better you're doing a great job. Tops on Tour usually plays them at 4.5. So that's basically -2 under par on four par-5's in a round in golf. The best on Tour on the par-5's are birdieing them roughly 57% of the time. The average is about 45% of the time.

 

So a Tour player isn't likely to birdie a par-5's the majority of the time nor are they likely to play a par-5 under par the majority of the time. It's mostly a 50/50 scenario with some bogeys occasionally thrown into the mix.

 

Now, that's for a Tour player playing Tour quality courses. Easier courses with par-5's means that a Tour level player can make more birdies and likely play them under par.

 

The point being is that going in with scoring expectations is really the wrong thing to focus on and instead go in with expectations of being able to focus and do all of the things you know you're supposed to do when you go up to execute each shot. You do that, you'll hit better shots over the long haul and improve your scoring. You go in with scoring expectations and then it distracts you from the shot on hand and you stop doing all of the things you need to before hitting the shot. And your performance suffers and you shoot higher scores.

 

 

 

 

 

RH

[Justsomeguy]

This. So if a tour player who is playing a tournament setup is hoping to birdie 2 of 4 best case scenario, and a regular player expects 4 birdies, you have some really ballsy hopes and dreams, especially if you're not already a scratch or better, who is hoping for 1 net birdie Per Round, lol.

Only Wrx are guys like, "yeah, I should birdie all 4, who knows I'll probably eagle 1, maybe a bogey but probably not...*

[SNIPERBBB]

Tour setup...not the local sub 70 rated courses. As I pointed out earlier, my home course with my length I ought to have not much more than a tap in for birdies on 2-3 of the par 5s if my chipping is on that day(i should at least be able to scramble for birdie 50% if i miss the UGIR). If I go to another course, say Big Beaver,Piketon OH...Id be lucky to get one birdie on any of the par 5s frankly two of them at least are rediculous and another is borderline. The last one of the par 5s you cant even see the flag from the fairway. You have to layup to the top of the till then pitch down 10-15 feet.

 

This is a gross generalization but when you look at the course ratings, when you see under par ratings, its a result of assuming that a scratch player will birdie the par 5s. Again thats a gross generalization but it seems to work out.

[nsxguy]

 

Dude, why so belligerent ?

I counted exactly one guy on this whole thread that came up with a total of under par for the par 5s during a round. And even he qualified his prediction (see above).

NOBODY EXPECTED 4 birdies per round. NOBODY.

"Reductio ad absurdum" much. LOL

 

 

[RichieHunt]

Tour pros can fall into that trap as well. Just had a client that was worried about his par-5 play when he played the par-5's in a tournament at -9 under par when the field average was at -3 under par.

 

Part of the problem here is that they don't understand that they can gain far more strokes by improving on the par-4's, mainly due to the average course having 10 par-4's versus 4 par-5's. So they start to think that they really need to score on the par-5's and in particular because there's only 4 of these par-5's and they press and try low percentage strategies instead of sound strategies, focus on single shot execution and worry as much about the par-4 performance as the par-5 performance in order to improve your scores.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RH

[SNIPERBBB]

Its all about low stress. Par 5's ought to be low stress birdies or par in worst case of if you get a decent drive. Par 3/4's its more about low stress pars. If your mentally grinding out either then your gonna implode eventually.

You can knock it all over the planet on every shot and make birdies and pars if you avoid ob/water(and sometimes even then as ive had my share of birdies and pars after knocking it in those areas) on par 5s. Par 4s you can tolerate one bad shot and scrape out a par.

When I get to the par 5 and playing the hole, Im thinking about in my strategy on each shot to give me a chance at birdie, not you gotta make birdie unless its on 18 and you really need it to win.

[Justsomeguy]

I don't know that you read carefully if you only saw 1 under par "expectation." I counted about 4-5. I wouldn't call criticizing that belligerent. That kind of hubris is to me the same poster that complains that his 300 yard drive is a 2 degree draw and he really wants to do an overhaul this season to turn it into a 2 degree fade.

It's the I'll take things that never happened category for $200, Alex.

It's kinda fun to compare some of the WRX claims to the pro game bc it shows some of the outlandishness. Back to distance, there's a good percentage of pros that avg under 300 with the driver, even in 2020, but we still get these claims online.

So if someone expects 2 or 4 birdies, I say again, why not eagles? Lol.

[oikos1]

Lol. Ever hear of a program called Vision54? Here are two of several concepts:

Each individual has unlimited human potential. Shooting 54 or lower is possible. Ohhhh the hubris!

[oikos1]

You also seem to have your own definition of "expectation".noun
plural noun: expectations
a strong belief that something will happen or be the case in the future.
"reality had not lived up to expectations"a belief that someone will or should achieve something.
"students had high expectations for their future"

There is nothing wrong with having high expectations as a golfer. In fact, many golfers under perform or give up once they feel they can no longer make birdie or par.
I also play a lot of match play, so I can see where my goals and @davep043 goals, such as "play each shot in the way that will give me the lowest score, long term average", would be different. My "expectation" when standing on the tee of any hole is to make birdie or better. I leave preconceived thoughts and emotions out of the equation and adjust accordingly after each shot until the hole is finished.
Henry Ford's well known quote seems apropos:"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right."
I don't know why one would ever hit a golf ball if they always thought the latter.

[jbrunk]

Bogey golfer here, 12 cap, my only expectation with scoring is to be inconsistent; two birdies per nine is pretty exceptional. Looking at my stats, par 5 scoring is very course dependent, generally around +0.75 over the last 20 rounds. The +2 peaks each came at two courses where the par 5s are particularly well-defended (narrow fairways, awkward dog legs, bunkers in range off the tee, multi-tiered green complexes, etc.).

 

And the last 10 years, from 24 hcp to 12 hcp. (if anyone cares)

[nsxguy]

Maybe you're right. Like most people I sometimes read through too quickly.

4 or 5 ? Who expected to be under par for the round on par 5s ?

Please point them out to me.

TIA

[Soloman1]

I have expectations that drivers will use turn signals, but reality does not live up to expectations.

I have expectations that employees in restaurants and stores will thank me when I leave for supporting their business, but reality does not live up to expectations.

I have expectations that leaders of companies have tried to open up their product packaging and tried the product itself at least once, but reality does not live up to expectations.

I have expectations that if I've backed out of a parking space and about to go forward no rational human being would try to squeeze behind my car, barely miss hitting it and try to go around me, but reality does not live up to expectations.

I have expectations that the bacon, egg and cheese biscuit I order at the drive-through of Chick-fil-A will be in the bag, but reality does not live up to expectations.

I have expectations that I will one day in my lifetime find that one person driving a BMW who will exhibit even the slightest bit of courtesy or rational driving, but reality does not live up to expectations.