When to go into lag mode for putting?

[Luv2kruz]

I was doing some research on putting and was thinking about when a golfer should switch from 'make' mentality to 'lag mode' mentality. Here is a graph plotting one putt percentage vs. three putt percentage for the pros. When the 3-putt percentage exceeds the 1-putt percentage, then I believe that's the point where the risk exceeds the reward and the mentality should switch to lag mode, under normal circumstances. This ends up being about 35 feet for the average pro. Obviously, if the tournament is on the line and that one putt is needed to win or tie, obviously the pro is still going to try and make it. I'm just talking about normal play.



The other way to look at this is average putts. As per the table below, when the average putts exceed 2.0, that's when the outcome of 'make' mentality doesn't have a statistical payoff. For the pros, this lines up with the previous chart nicely at between 30-40 feet and then progresses through the handicap levels at between 20-30 ft for low handicappers and 15-20 feet for mid handicappers. What I find shocking and almost unbelievable is that the data suggests that higher handicappers should be in 'lag mode' for putts between 6-10 feet. Does this even make sense? Seems to be an awfully short distance to not be in 'make mode' mentality. Thoughts?

Edited May 17, 2021 by Luv2kruz

[SNIPERBBB]

The premise is flawed if you are saying it's a risk reward proposition in trying to make a putt vs getting it close. They aren't mutually exclusive unless you're the guy that either makes the putt or blows it 4ft past.

 

If you try to make the putt in most cases your misses will be closer to the hole than trying to lag it. There are some exceptions like pins in severe slopes or near shelves.

[DShepley]

Just now, SNIPERBBB said:

The premise is flawed if you are saying it's a risk reward proposition in trying to make a putt vs getting it close. They aren't mutually exclusive unless you're the guy that either makes the putt or blows it 4ft past.

 

If you try to make the putt in most cases your misses will be closer to the hole than trying to lag it. There are some exceptions like pins in severe slopes or near shelves.

This!  I can almost promise you that the best putters are trying to make everything when they have a putter in their hand.  The lag is a result.  The pace at which they try to make the putt might change the further they get from the hole, but none of them are thinking about missing.

[NJBigFish22]

I always tried to get 30 putts or below.  As an amateur, I would say anything over 15-18 feet becomes a “lag putt”, which I am trying to make.  I’m more concerned about leaving a 18 inch putt or less, cause to me within 2 feet should be made 99 out of 100.  Pros would probably have the confidence to make 6-8 feet putts at a clip of 95% plus.  I know that 3 putts kill a score more than anything else.  If I slice a drive into the rough, knock it out short of the green, let’s say I hit a bad chip to 18 feet, if I lag to 2 feet, I salvage bogey, if I get lucky and it goes in I make par.  Just my way of thinking around the course.

Edited May 17, 2021 by NJBigFish22

[SNIPERBBB]

Just another thing to point out... accepting of outcome isn't lag putting. Im ok with missing a 30ft putt . Mildly annoyed if I miss a 10ft putt.

[b.mattay]

For me, what would you would consider "make mentality" is making sure the ball rolls beyond the hole if it were to miss. What you would consider "lag mentality" is putting with an absolute die speed (e.g 50ish % of putts will be long, 50ish % would be short). 
 

For me, the "make range" is <12 feet. Lag range becomes anything beyond 12 feet. Please note that a "lag" isn't any of that 3 foot circle B.S. You are still trying to make the putt. Only the parameters around speed change.

Edited May 17, 2021 by b.mattay

[Krt22]

If you buy into the SG method and the notion of capture size, Im not sure if there is such thing as "lag mode". The goal is always to at least get it to the hole, preferably 12-18" past the hole, the only thing that changes are the expectations of the outcome as the putt gets longer and longer. 

[ousuxndallas]

PGA Tour make % from 8 ft is 50%, I believe.  So, to me, as a single digit handicap, I can't possibly think my make % from 8+ feet should be any more than 25% and rapidly decreasing with the distance.

 

I go to lag mode on anything past 15 feet.  Because my make % at that point is probably 10% or less.

[theorangeman]

27 minutes ago, ousuxndallas said:

PGA Tour make % from 8 ft is 50%, I believe.  So, to me, as a single digit handicap, I can't possibly think my make % from 8+ feet should be any more than 25% and rapidly decreasing with the distance.

 

I go to lag mode on anything past 15 feet.  Because my make % at that point is probably 10% or less.

 

That's interesting because I would have thought pros make more than 50% of 8ft putts.  Sort of ironic because I was playing yesterday and I had about that much for a par on the final hole but missed it.  I was disappointed but then thought to myself, that's okay, I won't get them all - probably only about half of those.  Perhaps I'm overinflating my actual success with 7-8 ft putts.  🙂  

[SNIPERBBB]

The 6-10ft make percentage seems higher than it is due to you not really being in that range much. It's a middling chipping ability result or a very good approach shot.

[betarhoalphadelta]

39 minutes ago, b.mattay said:

For me, what would you would consider "make mentality" is making sure the ball rolls beyond the hole if it were to miss. What you would consider "lag mentality" is putting with an absolute die speed (e.g 50ish % of putts will be long, 50ish % would be short). 
 

For me, the "make range" is <12 feet. Lag range becomes anything beyond 12 feet. Please note that a "lag" isn't any of that 3 foot circle B.S. You are still trying to make the putt. Only the parameters around speed change.

 

That's my take as well. And I think the difference comes down to distance dispersion. 

 

On a 4 foot putt, you look at your distance dispersion. If your distance dispersion on, say, 5-6' intended roll is 12", then trying to roll it 12-18 inches beyond the hole should ensure that you're never short but you're never longer than 2 1/2 feet coming back. At that point if you intend to roll it 4', your distance dispersion means that you'll always be left within 1 foot, but you give up the chance to make 50% of your putts. The risk-reward on that doesn't justify a "die at the hole" mentality. 

 

On a 60 foot putt, your distance dispersion might be +/- 6 feet. If you putt with a "never leave it short of the hole" mentality, that means that 50% of your misses will be 6-12 feet past the hole. If you putt with a "die at the hole" mentality, you shouldn't have any misses that are farther than 6 feet from the hole. The likelihood of making a 60 foot putt is so low that the reward of a make is so improbable that what you REALLY want to do is put yourself in a position that your next putt is easily makeable. And with a +/- 6 foot dispersion, that's to have a few 12 footers as possible, trying to keep your putts within 6 feet. 

 

38 minutes ago, Krt22 said:

If you buy into the SG method and the notion of capture size, Im not sure if there is such thing as "lag mode". The goal is always to at least get it to the hole, preferably 12-18" past the hole, the only thing that changes are the expectations of the outcome as the putt gets longer and longer. 

 

I think if you look at it correctly, setting your "target distance" at 12" past the hole is probably optimal on all putts. However I don't think you want to have the mentality of ALWAYS getting the ball to the hole, because of dispersion. 

 

In the above example I used [i.e. completely made up], the distance dispersion of +/- 6 feet means that on a 60 foot putt, if your target distance is 61 feet, you'll still leave a ton of putts short. Not quite the 50% number that b.mattay suggests, but probably well north of 40%. But a 61 foot target distance is fine, because what you're giving up for a slightly higher chance of a make is to keep your putts that go past the hole within 7 feet rather than 6. And your putts left short reduce from a max of 6 feet to a max of 5 feet, so you'll have a slightly higher make % on the putts left short to offset the slightly lower on putts struck long. 

 

So if you have a mindset of the central point of your dispersion being 12" past the hole, that's fine, but it also means that you'll leave putts short sometimes. If you have the mindset that you should never leave the putt short of the hole, you'll end up IMHO losing strokes because your long misses are going to result in too many two-putts coming back. 

[glk]

1 hour ago, Luv2kruz said:

I was doing some research on putting and was thinking about when a golfer should switch from 'make' mentality to 'lag mode' mentality. Here is a graph plotting one putt percentage vs. three putt percentage for the pros. When the 3-putt percentage exceeds the 1-putt percentage, then I believe that's the point where the risk exceeds the reward and the mentality should switch to lag mode, under normal circumstances. This ends up being about 35 feet for the average pro. Obviously, if the tournament is on the line and that one putt is needed to win or tie, obviously the pro is still going to try and make it. I'm just talking about normal play.



The other way to look at this is average putts. As per the table below, when the average putts exceed 2.0, that's when the outcome of 'make' mentality doesn't have a statistical payoff. For the pros, this lines up with the previous chart nicely at between 30-40 feet and then progresses through the handicap levels at between 20-30 ft for low handicappers and 15-20 feet for mid handicappers. What I find shocking and almost unbelievable is that the data suggests that higher handicappers should be in 'lag mode' for putts between 6-10 feet. Does this even make sense? Seems to be an awfully short distance to not be in 'make mode' mentality. Thoughts?

 

Here is tour strokes gained as of 2010 - they may have updated this baseline.     The probabilities are averages without standard deviation - and are of all tour putts not individuals.     Have seen some individuals putts stats and they are all over the place as would be expected - nobody putts to the tour averages - some guys have a great season at 8 feet and make way more that 50% but then at 6 feet are below the 65% average.       Here is just one example from this year - Mark Leishman is making 23% of his 10 foot putts (22 attempts) so far this year and 72% of his 9 foot putts (25 attempts).

 

 

 

 

[MTgolfer]

23 minutes ago, theorangeman said:

 

That's interesting because I would have thought pros make more than 50% of 8ft putts.  Sort of ironic because I was playing yesterday and I had about that much for a par on the final hole but missed it.  I was disappointed but then thought to myself, that's okay, I won't get them all - probably only about half of those.  Perhaps I'm overinflating my actual success with 7-8 ft putts.  🙂  

I know, it always seems like pros make all of those putts. That’s because we’re watching the ones who are going to win or contend. Those guys are making those putts. Ha

[ezpz]

Never? I just pick a line, speed an try to strike it well. On occassion I will get all 3 right and the putt goes in. Obviously my expectation on making the putt changes with the distance but always trying to figure out the line and speed to hole it.

[PracticeSwinger]

Personal experience – single capper that biggest flaw is short game and always had the lag putt mentality of ‘get it to that 3 foot circle’ from 25ft+ to assure I don’t blow it up… and it resulted in way too much 3putts and very few 1putt (even though that last part is expected)… those 3putts results usually came from 30 footer that I wanted to ‘die close’ only to baby it to, you guessed it, 7 feet short – and from what I see in my casual rounds; I wasn’t the only one suffering from that lagophobia*…

 

Switched that mentality around to (with the help of strokes gained) : ‘let’s be a master of the most frequent short game shots we face’… those being: a) 3-5ft putts and b) 30-50ft approach (putt, chip, bunker, lob, etc.) with the targets being: a) making 75% and b) making sure the end result is more often 1 or 2 shots and not 3 shots; wherever that first shot ends up…

 

Might seem simple enough, but you face more 3-5 footers than you think (and as mentioned here, even pros aren’t automatic from there); let’s make 3 out of 4… but you also face a lot of 30-50 foot shots – and a lot of ams *bleep* these ups more often than they save it (see first paragraph) – with the bonus being draining one or chipping one in… and the kicker being; if you get good at a) you won’t be afraid to go for it with b) – they aren’t mutually exclusive...

 

*: You suffer from lagophobia if the only relatively long putt you are comfortable ‘going at it’ with is the one that is uphill all the way through and even past the hole…

Edited May 17, 2021 by MtlJayMan

[Luv2kruz]

1 hour ago, DShepley said:

This!  I can almost promise you that the best putters are trying to make everything when they have a putter in their hand. 

 

Couldn't disagree more. Pros certainly go into lag mode in putting, which is a defensive mindset just like they do on some approach shots by aiming for the middle of the green. They don't attack every pin and likewise don't attack every putt. 

 

The thoughts behind my original post came after I reread the following article from many years back. https://www.golfwrx.com/226273/are-you-wasting-your-time-on-the-putting-green/. He brings up some valid data and suggestions that I agree with based on the data. I'm just surprised at some of the observations. 

 

I think some of the responses above that are 'make mode for everything' could be an explanation for why some are not as good as they could be. If they had more definitive guidance on when to go for it and when to be defensive, they might actually putt better. Certainly food for thought. 

 

 

[SNIPERBBB]

As I said there's exceptions. Only time I'm going to make a defensive putt is if you miss with any speed at all, the ball just won't stop. That has nothing to do with distance. It could be a three foot putt or a 50+ft putt.  The situations where you need are pretty self identifying if you've played the game for any amount of time.

[Luv2kruz]

Here's a quote from Dave Pelz about 'make' mentality. 

 

Don’t try to “make” 30-plus footers. Instead, imagine that the hole is in the center of a circle that’s six feet in diameter, and leave your lag inside that circle. This removes the pressure to make it, so you’ll putt with more feel and less tension in your hands.

[PracticeSwinger]

27 minutes ago, Luv2kruz said:

 

Couldn't disagree more. Pros certainly go into lag mode in putting, which is a defensive mindset just like they do on some approach shots by aiming for the middle of the green. They don't attack every pin and likewise don't attack every putt. 

 

The thoughts behind my original post came after I reread the following article from many years back. https://www.golfwrx.com/226273/are-you-wasting-your-time-on-the-putting-green/. He brings up some valid data and suggestions that I agree with based on the data. I'm just surprised at some of the observations. 

 

I think some of the responses above that are 'make mode for everything' could be an explanation for why some are not as good as they could be. If they had more definitive guidance on when to go for it and when to be defensive, they might actually putt better. Certainly food for thought. 

 

 

I think DShipley's point is (I don't want to put words in my mouth though) is that pros don't go into a defensive mindset when facing a 30-40 footer as much as people think... I think people interpret that (and the article you quoted is a good example) reading those stats: they face a 37 foot putt, put it into robot mode getting it to 3 feet (don't care if it doesn't go in), drain the other one (they make all these) and move on... while I tend to interpret their mindset as: going for it with the 37 footer - god damn it just rolled by, would have been awesome... 4 footer coming back (and I just saw the line), let's do this and move on...

 

They are rarely way short on those long ones - telling me they don't try and 'lag it to 3ft' like most amateurs that leave them 7 foot short do (that result in those 3putts we see in those charts)... my 2 cents

[juststeve]

I am trying to make every putt I stroke but I also try to play the high line to the butt with enough speed to fall over the lip.  There i no one or the other for m.

 

Steve

[MrJones]

2 hours ago, ousuxndallas said:

PGA Tour make % from 8 ft is 50%, I believe.  So, to me, as a single digit handicap, I can't possibly think my make % from 8+ feet should be any more than 25% and rapidly decreasing with the distance.

 

I go to lag mode on anything past 15 feet.  Because my make % at that point is probably 10% or less.

This may not apply to your situation but I know that for me, my course conditions on average are much easier (slower and less break) than what a PGA Tour player experiences. So I expect to make more putts from the same distances. I play a few courses that are closer in comparison and when I'm on those my expectations drop.

[Aviador Naval]

38 minutes ago, Luv2kruz said:

Here's a quote from Dave Pelz about 'make' mentality. 

 

Don’t try to “make” 30-plus footers. Instead, imagine that the hole is in the center of a circle that’s six feet in diameter, and leave your lag inside that circle. This removes the pressure to make it, so you’ll putt with more feel and less tension in your hands.

Dave Pelz also said typical players need a 64 degree wedge, should play all chips off the back foot and stab down at the ball, and should putt with a stroke that defies physics and requires manipulation in both backstroke and forward stroke.

 

As a general rule, if Pelz says it, there is an excellent chance most good players aren’t doing it.  Even his most famous “student” used none of the techniques he marketed to the masses.

Edited May 17, 2021 by Aviador Naval

[Barfolomew]

There are so many good posts in this thread..... I do think its a great thread and important point of discussion, even if some say "no lag" mentality and make everything.

 

I love to practice very very fast downhill putts, I think it develops great touch..... Double Black Diamonds I call 'em like the ski slopes lol.  It's the only time I think the lag mentality comes into play.  You know where you barely touch the ball and it rolls 40 feet lol..... In these rare occasions I do think stopping the ball a little before the hole is winning and getting away with a 2 putt is all you really want cause running 20 feet by is so easy, even if the putt is straightish and not that long like 8 feet.... but I'm still trying to make em lol cause all you need is the line but I'll take the 2 putt happily.

 

But Im a cuddler type putter so I always try and stop the ball just past the front lip not 1 foot by like many do.... cuddle it right in lol

Edited May 17, 2021 by Barfolomew

[MTgolfer]

Just make them all, right? I do think it depends on the putt. For instance, last week I had a very quick down hill 10 foot putt, and I was really just hoping to get it close. The next putt was 25 feet and I tried to make it.

[DShepley]

2 hours ago, Luv2kruz said:

 

Couldn't disagree more. Pros certainly go into lag mode in putting, which is a defensive mindset just like they do on some approach shots by aiming for the middle of the green. They don't attack every pin and likewise don't attack every putt. 

 

The thoughts behind my original post came after I reread the following article from many years back. https://www.golfwrx.com/226273/are-you-wasting-your-time-on-the-putting-green/. He brings up some valid data and suggestions that I agree with based on the data. I'm just surprised at some of the observations. 

 

I think some of the responses above that are 'make mode for everything' could be an explanation for why some are not as good as they could be. If they had more definitive guidance on when to go for it and when to be defensive, they might actually putt better. Certainly food for thought. 

 

 

And then make mode shuts off for an amateur at 12 feet because they are paying too much attention to stats and instead of trying to make putts, they are simply trying not to 3 putt.  A 'MAKE' mentality doesn't mean that you are aggressively hitting the putt, taking out break, etc.  It can mean from longer distance you are trying to make it with dead weight BUT, you are still trying to make it.  Telling people that there is such a thing as 'lag mode' where the objective is to simply not three putt is a very good way to create poor putters, scared putters.  I had a friend who lagged everything from 15 feet because he was scared to three putt and had lost confidence and it is a horrible way to play the game, or a horrible thing to witness.  Go ask Tiger Woods or Jack Nicklaus if they have ever tried to miss a putt....

[DShepley]

1 hour ago, MtlJayMan said:

I think DShipley's point is (I don't want to put words in my mouth though) is that pros don't go into a defensive mindset when facing a 30-40 footer as much as people think... I think people interpret that (and the article you quoted is a good example) reading those stats: they face a 37 foot putt, put it into robot mode getting it to 3 feet (don't care if it doesn't go in), drain the other one (they make all these) and move on... while I tend to interpret their mindset as: going for it with the 37 footer - god damn it just rolled by, would have been awesome... 4 footer coming back (and I just saw the line), let's do this and move on...

 

They are rarely way short on those long ones - telling me they don't try and 'lag it to 3ft' like most amateurs that leave them 7 foot short do (that result in those 3putts we see in those charts)... my 2 cents

I don't think any good putter in the world is EVER trying to miss a putt. It's that simple.  Obviously they aren't taking break out of a 40 footer and ramming it in the back, but they certainly aren't just trying to get it close.  They are picking the smallest target, (the hole), and trying to hit it in there.  How does your miss look if you miss a 3 foot circle by 12" vs missing a 4" circle by 12"?  If you want to be a good putter, learn to make consistent contact on your putter, (key to distance control), and STOP just trying to get it close!

[Aviador Naval]

2 minutes ago, DShepley said:

Telling people that there is such a thing as 'lag mode' where the objective is to simply not three putt is a very good way to create poor putters, scared putters.

This is the heart of the matter...

[DShepley]

1 hour ago, Luv2kruz said:

Here's a quote from Dave Pelz about 'make' mentality. 

 

Don’t try to “make” 30-plus footers. Instead, imagine that the hole is in the center of a circle that’s six feet in diameter, and leave your lag inside that circle. This removes the pressure to make it, so you’ll putt with more feel and less tension in your hands.

It also creates longer misses because your acceptable miss is 6 feet.  Imagine that the hole is 4" and you are trying to make the long ones over the front edge.....NEVER intentionally try to miss a putt.

[SNIPERBBB]

The problem with the lag putting concept is that when you put the focus on just getting the ball close, you tend to not read the green as close as you should and you're not making a committed or confident stroke.  The former if you dont read the putt and you miss on the low side on a long lag putt, you arent going to be anywhere close to a easy second putt. If you get lucky and miss on the high side you might have a better chance. The latter youll end up coming up well short a lot and not even close to your intended start line.

[DShepley]

7 minutes ago, SNIPERBBB said:

The problem with the lag putting concept is that when you put the focus on just getting the ball close, you tend to not read the green as close as you should and you're not making a committed or confident stroke.  The former if you dont read the putt and you miss on the low side on a long lag putt, you arent going to be anywhere close to a easy second putt. If you get lucky and miss on the high side you might have a better chance. The latter youll end up coming up well short a lot and not even close to your intended start line.

3 putt avoidance comes from aiming at a very small target knowing that the miss isn't going to be huge.  If you want to three putt less, STOP trying to get it close and START focusing on making your long putts.