Scratch/Plus Handicap amateur male golfer vs. Nelly Korda (LGPA)

MtlJeff · January 19

On 1/17/2024 at 5:23 PM, aenemated said:

Over 4 holes.

Exactly. The result is pretty much exactly what you would expect. I would expect an LPGA pro to beat a scratch golfer by 1-2 shots over 4 holes. Over time it's probably closer to 1 on average (which would be like 4.5-5 over 18 holes)

This is what i would expect a top LPGA pro to beat me by, assuming they didn't fall in love and become very nervous around me due to this

aenemated · January 19

2 hours ago, MtlJeff said:

This is what i would expect a top LPGA pro to beat me by

What's the exchange rate on Canadian strokes though? 😁

Shilgy · January 19

On 1/17/2024 at 8:33 PM, ThinkingPlus said:

The 5 to 6 number is a gross approximation. When the women pros have good weeks they play in the men's +3 - +4 realm. Those are top 5 weeks or better. However, they also have their less good weeks where it's scratch or +1 men's.

There are also the intangibles of playing for a living and course setup. We are placing the handicap system under a microscope at the extremes where the results are most non-linear and least applicable. That's why these discussions are largely silly. We are farming nits and fuzz ranching.

I agree with you…and will add…

That “easy” course this week? La Quinta Country Club is rated at 74.3/136

The only possible reason I can think of for the tour pros having a +5.4 average per that story from a few posts back is the slope works in reverse for plus handicaps. Zach Johnson shot 62 yesterday…-10 which is a bit over 12 strokes better than the rating. His differential would be “just” -10.2 for handicap purposes. And that’s just one example on a course where, for the tour, has a relatively low slope.

What that means, in a nutshell, is the 10 handicap shoots a career round of 84 at La Quinta and is told instead of the 22 strokes he was behind Johnson is he’d only get about 16 strokes instead.(ballpark didn’t do the math…might be 17 or 18)

Ive always thought that comparing tour pros to amateurs in regards to handicaps is foolish. What does the course rating system that measures based on average drives of 250 have to do with how they play the game.

It may be a fun exercise but is fundamentally apples to oranges.

edited to add

Nicklaus Tournament Course…where Burns shot -11 today is rated at 75.3/143

PGA West is 74.3/146

All of these course ratings are for “normal” conditions…not tournament setups.

Edited January 19 by Shilgy

tatertot · January 20

So ... The LPGA is holding their annual celebrity event this week.

John Smoltz, who made it to the final round of Champioins Tour Q school last year and is one of the best celebrity golfers according to some, is approximately 15-17 strokes off of Lydia Ko after 3 rounds. The celebrities play a modified stableford, but Smoltz would be 3-5 over playing stroke, and Ko is -12.

Smoltz plays to a +2.7, FYI.

And everyone is playing the same tees in this tourney.

Just thought it was interesting considering what we were discussing.

Edited January 20 by tatertot

PedronNiall · January 20

3 minutes ago, tatertot said:

So ... The LPGA is holding their annual celebrity event this week.

John Smoltz, who made it to the final round of Champioins Tour Q school last year and is one of the best celebrity golfers according to some, is approximately 15-17 strokes off of Lydia Ko after 3 rounds. The celebrities play a modified stableford, but Smoltz would 3-5 over playing stroke, and Ko is -12.

Smoltz plays to a +2.7, FYI.

And everyone is playing the same tees in this tourney.

Just thought it was interesting considering what we were discussing.

Weirdo. I was just about to post about The Hilton.

Pnwpingi210 · January 20

Is Grant still a scratch golfer? Or was he scratch golfer before he became a content creator.

I think the big difference is a lot of the scratch golfers play a lot of golf, likely on the same course. They get to know the course really well, where to leave there misses, how every inch of the green roles at every hour of the day (as they should). If dropped on a random course, they likely won’t shoot as close to their index, especially the first round.

A tour professional, man or women, plays closer to their hc or index on just about any course they play.

this is not meant to be insulting cause in any case scratch or plus 2 is elite. But a plus 6 golfer that plays a lot of tournaments on different course is playing a different game compared to the club scratch golfer.

Edited January 20 by Pnwpingi210

pingbling23 · January 21

Micah played Brooke Henderson 3 holes and beat her by a stroke.

jimecherry · January 21

5 hours ago, pingbling23 said:

Micah played Brooke Henderson 3 holes and beat her by a stroke.

just goes to show if you can shrink the sample size enough even a +1 content creator can catch a pro off guard ;}

Edited January 21 by jimecherry

pingbling23 · January 21

4 hours ago, jimecherry said:

just goes to show if you can shrink the sample size enough even a +1 content creator can catch a pro off guard ;}

oh yeah no doubt. you take rick shiels that plays male pros 18 holes and gets beat by around 12 strokes. hes been struggling to break 75 consistently and grant and micah shoot a few under par most rounds. i think grant and micah would fair pretty well against the top females playing from the same tees but the edge would go to the pros in the long run, they are so consistent. i would like to see them play more of the top females, it could help showcase how good the females are compared to high level amateurs that we get to see play regularly. i think the females would actually fair better playing a little back, if playing the same tees, as it would showcase their elite ball striking more. when these guys play short holes and have 50 yards in every hole its easy for them to make birdies.

MtlJeff · January 21

7 hours ago, jimecherry said:

just goes to show if you can shrink the sample size enough even a +1 content creator can catch a pro off guard ;}

I could beat Steph Curry in a 3pt contest if it was 1 shot only. LOL....over enough sample sizes he'll miss one and then i just gotta make!

tacklingdummy · January 22

The Hilton Tournament of Champions is a great sample size for the "Can an amateur beat an LPGA pro?" question. All the celebrity amateurs had one very good round under par, can play, and shoot some very good scores, but not as consistent or sustainable against the LPGA pros. Just shows how great the LPGA players are. Here are the top 5 scores for celebrity amateurs and LPGA pros. The celebrity handicaps were just from a quick search and may not be accurate, but just what I found.

Top 5 celebrity amateurs: total score, handicaps, and best round of the week.

1. Jack McNeil +8 total score, +1.8 index, 71 (-1) best round of the week

2. Annika Sorenstam +8 total score, 0.0 index, 68 (-4) best round of the week

3. Derek Lowe +9 total score, 0.0 index, 70 (-2) best round of the week

4. Mark Mulder +9 total score, 0.0 index, 71 (-1) best round of the week

5. Jeremy Roenick +12 total score, +1.0 index, 70 (-2) best round of the week

Top 5 LPGA players and their total score and best round of the week.

1. Lydia Ko -14, 67 best round of the week

2. Alexa Pano -12, 67 best round of the week

3. Brooke Henderson -10, 68 best round of the week

4. Cheyanne Knight -8, 69 best round of the week

5. Ayaka Furue -8, 65 best round of the week

keys · January 22

12 hours ago, tacklingdummy said:

The Hilton Tournament of Champions is a great sample size for the "Can an amateur beat an LPGA pro?" question. All the celebrity amateurs had one very good round under par, can play, and shoot some very good scores, but not as consistent or sustainable against the LPGA pros. Just shows how great the LPGA players are. Here are the top 5 scores for celebrity amateurs and LPGA pros. The celebrity handicaps were just from a quick search and may not be accurate, but just what I found.

Top 5 celebrity amateurs: total score, handicaps, and best round of the week.

1. Jack McNeil +8 total score, +1.8 index, 71 (-1) best round of the week

2. Annika Sorenstam +8 total score, 0.0 index, 68 (-4) best round of the week

3. Derek Lowe +9 total score, 0.0 index, 70 (-2) best round of the week

4. Mark Mulder +9 total score, 0.0 index, 71 (-1) best round of the week

5. Jeremy Roenick +12 total score, +1.0 index, 70 (-2) best round of the week

Top 5 LPGA players and their total score and best round of the week.

1. Lydia Ko -14, 67 best round of the week

2. Alexa Pano -12, 67 best round of the week

3. Brooke Henderson -10, 68 best round of the week

4. Cheyanne Knight -8, 69 best round of the week

5. Ayaka Furue -8, 65 best round of the week

Not the most useful, but by place (ie 3rd place vs. 3rd place), the stroke difference is:

1. 22

2. 20

3. 19

4. 17

5. 20

that's burly

tacklingdummy · January 22

21 minutes ago, keys said:

Not the most useful, but by place (ie 3rd place vs. 3rd place), the stroke difference is:

1. 22

2. 20

3. 19

4. 17

5. 20

that's burly

I think it is useful. Shows the amount of strokes per round and total the LPGA players beat the celebrity amateurs for the week. LPGA players would have to give the celebrities 5 strokes a round (2.5 strokes a side) on heads up match. That is substantial. Granted these were the LPGA tournament winners of 2023, but I'd bet money on the LPGA players against amateurs every day of the week with exception of some of the better D-1 men college players.

tatertot · January 23

21 hours ago, keys said:

Not the most useful, but by place (ie 3rd place vs. 3rd place), the stroke difference is:

1. 22

2. 20

3. 19

4. 17

5. 20

that's burly

It's roughly 5 stroke a round ... We're looking at a bunch of scratch to +2 players, and some were estimating the LPGA pros as +5 to +7, so it all works out.

ThinkingPlus · January 23

Just now, tatertot said:

It's roughly 5 stroke a round ... We're looking at a bunch of scratch to +2 players, and some were estimating the LPGA pros as +5 to +7, so it all works out.

It was +5 - +7 women's index not men's. The ams didn't shoot anywhere near their caps over the 3 rounds while the pros, with some exceptions, did. It illustrates the biggest difference between pros and ams; consistency.

mshills · January 23

14 minutes ago, ThinkingPlus said:

It was +5 - +7 women's index not men's. The ams didn't shoot anywhere near their caps over the 3 rounds while the pros, with some exceptions, did. It illustrates the biggest difference between pros and ams; consistency.

Indeed....consistency. Pressure is a huge factor too. Those ams thought they were feeling pressure -- there are cameras , there are galleries, etc. That feels like pressure, but it's not. Pressure is "...jeez, that bed in the Knights Inn last night sucked, I couldn't sleep.....my stomach hurts.....shucks, I really need to make this cut and get paid this week or I'm over my credit card limit with that luxury hotel stay.....crap, and you know what, if I don't make some $$ I am going to have to ask my caddie to pay for his own Zaxby's dinner tonight...." If that aspiring pro has a spouse and baby at home then ratchet that pressure up ten fold!

There's probably a lot less of that these days, but playing when playing is your livelihood versus playing when your livelihood supports your playing is another galaxy of pressure.

knock it close · January 23

On 1/20/2024 at 7:04 PM, pingbling23 said:

Micah played Brooke Henderson 3 holes and beat her by a stroke.

Micah can barely break 80 in low pro events, guy is an absolute pretender

tatertot · January 24

7 hours ago, ThinkingPlus said:

It was +5 - +7 women's index not men's. The ams didn't shoot anywhere near their caps over the 3 rounds while the pros, with some exceptions, did. It illustrates the biggest difference between pros and ams; consistency.

It was 4 rounds ... and most of the celebrities in this event have played in a lot of tournaments - either this one, Tahoe or Pebble.

Just more excuses ... here are results, but here's why they're not valid ... yada yada.

ThinkingPlus · January 24

34 minutes ago, tatertot said:

It was 4 rounds ... and most of the celebrities in this event have played in a lot of tournaments - either this one, Tahoe or Pebble.

Just more excuses ... here are results, but here's why they're not valid ... yada yada.

Sorry. For some reason I had 3 rounds stuck in my head. Regardless, it is provable that the ams did not play to their handicaps. It is also provable that the LPGA pros played at or above their handicaps (at least those that keep them). I'm not sure of the point you are arguing.

Shilgy · January 24

On 1/23/2024 at 10:11 AM, ThinkingPlus said:

It was +5 - +7 women's index not men's. The ams didn't shoot anywhere near their caps over the 3 rounds while the pros, with some exceptions, did. It illustrates the biggest difference between pros and ams; consistency.

I still do not understand why we keep throwing women’s index into the equation when it’s just as easy to use mens across the board. Last year the top 100 women all averaged under 72.0 on courses that likely averaged near that for men’s course rating. Considering only 8 of 20 are used for handicap I would guess that would put them in the +2 to +4 men’s index range while their anti handicap, which is the index based on their non counting scores, would be much better than the celebrity counterparts due to their better consistency.

Note…the +2 to +4 estimate would be for #100 on the scoring list averaging a hair under 72.0.

Note….the ladies tour is definitely getting , just like the men’s , deeper and deeper with talent.

2023 100 players under 72.0 scoring average

2020 69 players

2015 56

2010 32

2005 26

Edited January 24 by Shilgy
Clarity

Ty_Webb · January 24

For what it's worth, Grant has a video out of him playing a match against Tommy Fleetwood over 6 holes and losing by 2. He also was beating Wesley Bryan through 16 holes in their "event" in Bermuda. Wesley's not as good as he was, but he's still very, very good indeed. Grant's pretty good. Quite a bit below scratch I would hazard a guess. Playing four holes against Nelly I would think he might occasionally win. Four holes is such a small sample size, but not very often.

ThinkingPlus · January 24

8 hours ago, Shilgy said:

I still do not understand why we keep throwing women’s index into the equation when it’s just as easy to use mens across the board. Last year the top 100 women all averaged under 72.0 on courses that likely averaged near that for men’s course rating. Considering only 8 of 20 are used for handicap I would guess that would put them in the +2 to +4 men’s index range while their anti handicap, which is the index based on their non counting scores, would be much better than the celebrity counterparts due to their better consistency.

Note…the +2 to +4 estimate would be for #100 on the scoring list averaging a hair under 72.0.

Note….the ladies tour is definitely getting , just like the men’s , deeper and deeper with talent.

2023 100 players under 72.0 scoring average

2020 69 players

2015 56

2010 32

2005 26

I think there are still folks who don't know there is a difference. They think a handicap index is a handicap index. Certainly for direct comparison to the guy ams in the recent tournament it would make sense to only do men's differentials.

KimmerBH · January 25

On 1/23/2024 at 12:36 PM, knock it close said:

Micah can barely break 80 in low pro events, guy is an absolute pretender

Most overrated golfer on YT by far. Can't stand the guy, he's a complete fraud.

TiScape · January 26

3 hours ago, KimmerBH said:

Most overrated golfer on YT by far. Can't stand the guy, he's a complete fraud.

Yet dude is making a really solid living with his content. Beats the snot out of a “real job” IMO. So I’m gonna go with the old “Don’t hate the player, hate the game” adage.

woahnelly · January 26

On 1/21/2024 at 10:42 AM, MtlJeff said:

I could beat Steph Curry in a 3pt contest if it was 1 shot only. LOL....over enough sample sizes he'll miss one and then i just gotta make!

I was just gonna say I bowled a 239 last night and the recent PBA major both guys bowled under 200 in the final match... I think I'm ready, see you on ESPN Rob Stone.

PedronNiall · January 26

4 hours ago, woahnelly said:

I was just gonna say I bowled a 239 last night and the recent PBA major both guys bowled under 200 in the final match... I think I'm ready, see you on ESPN Rob Stone.

driveandputtmachine · January 26

On 1/16/2024 at 2:40 PM, mbb86 said:

Am +2 golfer that consistently plays tournaments, have seen Nelly play in person many times. Would bet on Nelly heads up vs me any day.

I played D1 golf(mid-late 90's), was a +3.8, played US AM and state AM's, never won anything, but had some decent finishes. Through my dad's company when I was in college I got to play in one men's pro-am and three women's pro-ams while in college. Back then as a +3.8 D1 college player I would have put myself up against middle of the road LPGA players and think it would have been 50-50. I shot a round of 62 once, and a bunch of mid 60's rounds from 6700-7200 yards.

Flash forward 2010+ and I was back to a plus +1.3, played some state am events, best finish was a Top 15 in the GA Pub Links. Through my company I got to play in a LPGA pro-am and I know I would've gotten hammered by just about any LPGA player. Sure on my best days I could beat quite a few, but even as a +1.3 I know how bad my bad days are. If we played 20 times I would've won maybe four, and the other 16 been beaten. During that 2 year time span I shot numerous rounds of 68-69 from 6700-7200 yards, but also quite a few upper 70's rounds(that magically get thrown out).

ANYONE who didn't/doesn't play high level AM golf and thinks random Joe at their club who is a + and has never played in a big event could hang with a LPGA player is fooling themselves. There is literally no chance. Sure a former D1/D2 player maybe a few years out of college golf could, but there is a huge difference between, A + at your home course(95% of rounds there), A traveling + and A traveling + that plays in US and State am events.

For reference now, I am 48. I play less than I would like, had wrist surgery a few years back, and currently carry around a 4 handicap, every winter it creeps up, and then by the fall it is between a 1-2. I have caddied in a few ladies Pro events(sumetra/epson) and played a few more pro-ams, and I know there is no chance I beat an LPGA player even once out of 20 rounds.

DogBoy79 · January 27

On 1/22/2024 at 1:49 AM, tacklingdummy said:

Top 5 celebrity amateurs: total score, handicaps, and best round of the week.

1. Jack McNeil +8 total score, +1.8 index, 71 (-1) best round of the week

2. Annika Sorenstam +8 total score, 0.0 index, 68 (-4) best round of the week

3. Derek Lowe +9 total score, 0.0 index, 70 (-2) best round of the week

4. Mark Mulder +9 total score, 0.0 index, 71 (-1) best round of the week

5. Jeremy Roenick +12 total score, +1.0 index, 70 (-2) best round of the week

Top 5 LPGA players and their total score and best round of the week.

1. Lydia Ko -14, 67 best round of the week

2. Alexa Pano -12, 67 best round of the week

3. Brooke Henderson -10, 68 best round of the week

4. Cheyanne Knight -8, 69 best round of the week

5. Ayaka Furue -8, 65 best round of the week

How about the bottom 5 LPGA players from the event?

naval2006 · January 29

I think this weekend Nelly got inspired reading this thread.

Hawkeye77 · January 29

On 1/25/2024 at 3:52 PM, KimmerBH said:

Most overrated golfer on YT by far. Can't stand the guy, he's a complete fraud.

Envy is one of the seven deadly sins.

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Scratch/Plus Handicap amateur male golfer vs. Nelly Korda (LGPA)

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