Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

[Shilgy]

4 handicap golfers are 4's for a reason. They don't play very well. If they could play they wouldn't be 4's. LPGA players can play and would always be a prohibitive favorite to beat a 4,no matter how manly he might be.

 

Steve

You might as well say... Lower ranked LPGA players that barely make the cut are lower ranked for a reason, they aren't very good, they make bogeys and doubles and aren't as consistent.

 

This is said a bit tongue in cheek. My point is this... there are 4 HC players that are trending down to scratch, they just haven't gotten there, yet(?). Just like the fact there are lower ranked LPGA players that barely made the tour but don't have the talent/drive/consistency to move up. Or they could be trending up and break into the top 20 sometime later.

 

Your HC is NOT a stagnant number, it doesn't define every round of golf you play.

 

Well, with that variable I guess the OP should have thought things out better, huh? When you play in a tournament do they use the trending or actual handicap? How are we to judge any competition if we have to include what might happen in the future in calculating how to handicap what is happening now? I guess you can price real estate that way but then you run up against those damn appraisers who only look at past sales. Frustrating, huh? Makes me want to hit the drive 60 yards past the LPGA players and use a lob wedge when they're hitting 5 hybrids. That way I birdie all the holes and sail past 'em!

Do you even understand sports? ;-) Players can get hot in any sport, have a good day and shoot or play better than their average, that's what sports is all about. If you are a 4 hdcp, you are more than capable of shooting a round of par or better. You have all the swing mechanics to do it. Does that mean you are automatically 'scratch' and therefore are NOT a 4 hdcp? NO! That's not how it works.

 

When I say 'trending down to scratch', I mean they are actively getting better and maybe a year ago they were an 8 hdcp. Now, you have been able to practice more, working out, etc. Figured out a way to be better putting, gained more knowledge on what shot to hit at which time. Now that 8 hdcp has dropped to a 4. Who knows, given more practice, that player might be scratch in a couple of more years.

And still be behind the pro.

When you say the 4 has good and bad days what do you think about my hypothesis in the post below yours about weather related scoring? That the days the 4 plays well the lady likely will as well?

[juliette91]

Sorry, my post was too sarcastic and I know you meant well. I disagree with you and should have said it more politely.

[TheGeekGolfer]

Any 4's out there who are willing to share their last 30 scores? I can run a statistical analysis & tell you the probability you will beat one of the lower ranked LPGA players (minus the pressure of tee-ing it up before crowds).

I could share but imo the biggest variable is the weather. My high scores are mostly on windy days where the lady pro would have a higher day as well(not nearly as bothered as am I however). My good days are mostly with perfect golf weather and the pro would easily beat me then as well. That's a long way of saying you can run probabilities all you want but the graphs are largely weather related. The scores are not without cause. So the pro and I would largely go up and down scoring together.

Yes, you might "in general" go up or down the same depending on weather conditions. However, those are "general" scores, not actual scores. Let's say you take a 4 hdcp vs a lower ranked LPGA player. They each play 50 rounds against each other in decent weather conditions. Heck, even a variety of weather conditions. Now, is that LPGA player going to beat the 4 hdcp, every single time? NO, I propose that the 4 hdcp could very likely beat her on a few occasions. Now, does the 4 hdcp "generally" have as good a game as the LPGA player? No, she most likely would be better by 4-7 strokes, on average. Does that mean the 4 hdcp will NEVER beat the LPGA player? NO

 

You're looking at your scores as a variety, both good (maybe +1) and bad (that day, +6 or so). And forgetting, that the lower ranked LPGA player is also lower ranked for a reason, she's also not very consistent.

 

Could it happen the first time out? YES! Could it happen the 10th match, YES! That's how probabilities work, even if the 4 hdcp beat her the 1st time out, it doesn't mean it will happen every time. Things will even out "over time" and the LPGA player WILL beat the 4 hdcp the vast majority or even 45/50 times.

 

Let's take the first person on the list of the LPGA 2017 exempt list, in the 101-125 category.

 

Vicky Hurst finished number 101 on the money list in 2016 and has been on tour since 2009. She's NOT a rookie and has won over $1.5 million in her career. She averages 254 off the tee. Her 2016 scoring average was 73. However, if you look at her results for 2016, she had 10 rounds over 78 or higher, even a few 80 and 81s mixed in there.

 

Well, maybe those rounds she scored high, all players scored high. In the 2016 Evian Championship, she shot 78, 79. The winner that year shot -21 over 4 rounds, shooting 63, 66, 65, 69. In the first round, In Gee Chun beat her by 15 strokes the first day and 13 strokes the second day. Yet, her scoring average was 69, compared to Vicky Hurst's average of 73, a difference of ONLY 4 strokes (for the year).

 

Given the amount that she beat her by in the Evian Championship (15 and 13 strokes) and that their averages are 4 shots apart, Vicky (based on stats) wouldn't stand a chance against In Gee Chun in a head to head match.

 

A cursory glance through both of their 2016 results shows that In Gee shot an 80 in the last round of the Swinging Skirts Classic. Vicky shot a 75 in that last round. In the Women's PGA, In Gee had a score of 73 in the second round and Vicky shot a 72 in that same round, beating her by 1 shot. She had just shot a score of 80 in the previous round, beating her previous day by 8 strokes. How is this all possible, based on the STATS, this shouldn't happen?

 

My point is this. If you go by stats alone, then, NO it would never happen. However, that's why you "play the game". Stats work over the long term. However, they don't necessarily apply to the actual result in a single event.

 

Let's look at this from another angle. What if you took the bottom tier LPGA player vs the one of the top ranked LPGA players? Let's use the same 2 players from above.

 

A number of people are saying that a bottom tier LPGA player is 'close' or 'closer' on average to a male 'scratch' or even +1 player. According to the numbers then, In Gee Chun would be about a +4 or +5 hdcp. (Yes, I know these are 'loose' numbers for hdcp, so I'm sure my hdcp calculations will take a few hits by the number pros. It's hard to calculate the hdcp of a professional). However, if this is close to true, then there is a difference of 4-5 strokes between the two. However over the course of 50 rounds in 2016, in which several times they played in the same tournaments, Vicky did, in fact, beat In Gee Chun in the same rounds, under the same playing conditions (roughly, based on morning vs afternoon flight, etc).

 

If a bottom tier LPGA player can beat a top-ranked LPGA player. Even when there is a difference of 4 strokes (on average) between the two. Then it would be possible, however improbable, for a 4 hdcp to beat the lower ranked LPGA player.

 

OK...swing away, I know I'll take a few hits on this. I personally have enjoyed this discussion, even when others seem to think it's a waste of time :taunt:

[95124hacker]

I think 30 rounds is a large enough sample size to be statistically significant. The outliers will be at either end of the bell curve. Same for the LPGA pro. 30 rounds should be a Gaussian distribution.

[TheGeekGolfer]

Sorry, my post was too sarcastic and I know you meant well. I disagree with you and should have said it more politely.

It's all good, my reply may have been a bit hasty as well.

[dap]

It boils down to nothing more than this really. What are the high scores of a low ranked LPGA player? Mid to high 70's? Can a 4 handicap player occasionally beat these scores? He could sometimes when he's hot. That pretty much answers the question. The question is how often will it happen?

[Shilgy]

Geek, yes yes yes yes yes it will happen. I have not said "never". I am of the belief we're talking 1 in 30-50 rounds the 4 would be lower and I would be close to never over a 4 round event.

[bph7]

What about this question: could a woman who carries a men's 4 cap (lets assume she plays from men's tees and uses those men's ratings/slopes for her index)? This woman would be about a plus 1-2 woman's cap based on the difference between men's and women's ratings. My answer would be the same as before: yes, but not a top player and it would be very rare, maybe 3-5% of the time.

[Shilgy]

What about this question: could a woman who carries a men's 4 cap (lets assume she plays from men's tees and uses those men's ratings/slopes for her index)? This woman would be about a plus 1-2 woman's cap based on the difference between men's and women's ratings. My answer would be the same as before: yes, but not a top player and it would be very rare, maybe 3-5% of the time.

So basically you're saying, as have many on here, that a 4 is a 4?

[CallawayLefty]

What about this question: could a woman who carries a men's 4 cap (lets assume she plays from men's tees and uses those men's ratings/slopes for her index)? This woman would be about a plus 1-2 woman's cap based on the difference between men's and women's ratings. My answer would be the same as before: yes, but not a top player and it would be very rare, maybe 3-5% of the time.

So basically you're saying, as have many on here, that a 4 is a 4?

 

It's that kind of groundbreaking analysis that keeps me coming back to this thread.

[Shilgy]

What about this question: could a woman who carries a men's 4 cap (lets assume she plays from men's tees and uses those men's ratings/slopes for her index)? This woman would be about a plus 1-2 woman's cap based on the difference between men's and women's ratings. My answer would be the same as before: yes, but not a top player and it would be very rare, maybe 3-5% of the time.

So basically you're saying, as have many on here, that a 4 is a 4?

 

It's that kind of groundbreaking analysis that keeps me coming back to this thread.

Yep, you heard it here only a few hundred times. Although some have argued that there are many types of 4.

It's like watching a lawyer show on television. Page after page of "counselor, allow me to rephrase that".

[juliette91]

Any 4's out there who are willing to share their last 30 scores? I can run a statistical analysis & tell you the probability you will beat one of the lower ranked LPGA players (minus the pressure of tee-ing it up before crowds).

I could share but imo the biggest variable is the weather. My high scores are mostly on windy days where the lady pro would have a higher day as well(not nearly as bothered as am I however). My good days are mostly with perfect golf weather and the pro would easily beat me then as well. That's a long way of saying you can run probabilities all you want but the graphs are largely weather related. The scores are not without cause. So the pro and I would largely go up and down scoring together.

Yes, you might "in general" go up or down the same depending on weather conditions. However, those are "general" scores, not actual scores. Let's say you take a 4 hdcp vs a lower ranked LPGA player. They each play 50 rounds against each other in decent weather conditions. Heck, even a variety of weather conditions. Now, is that LPGA player going to beat the 4 hdcp, every single time? NO, I propose that the 4 hdcp could very likely beat her on a few occasions. Now, does the 4 hdcp "generally" have as good a game as the LPGA player? No, she most likely would be better by 4-7 strokes, on average. Does that mean the 4 hdcp will NEVER beat the LPGA player? NO

 

You're looking at your scores as a variety, both good (maybe +1) and bad (that day, +6 or so). And forgetting, that the lower ranked LPGA player is also lower ranked for a reason, she's also not very consistent.

 

Could it happen the first time out? YES! Could it happen the 10th match, YES! That's how probabilities work, even if the 4 hdcp beat her the 1st time out, it doesn't mean it will happen every time. Things will even out "over time" and the LPGA player WILL beat the 4 hdcp the vast majority or even 45/50 times.

 

Let's take the first person on the list of the LPGA 2017 exempt list, in the 101-125 category.

 

Vicky Hurst finished number 101 on the money list in 2016 and has been on tour since 2009. She's NOT a rookie and has won over $1.5 million in her career. She averages 254 off the tee. Her 2016 scoring average was 73. However, if you look at her results for 2016, she had 10 rounds over 78 or higher, even a few 80 and 81s mixed in there.

 

Well, maybe those rounds she scored high, all players scored high. In the 2016 Evian Championship, she shot 78, 79. The winner that year shot -21 over 4 rounds, shooting 63, 66, 65, 69. In the first round, In Gee Chun beat her by 15 strokes the first day and 13 strokes the second day. Yet, her scoring average was 69, compared to Vicky Hurst's average of 73, a difference of ONLY 4 strokes (for the year).

 

Given the amount that she beat her by in the Evian Championship (15 and 13 strokes) and that their averages are 4 shots apart, Vicky (based on stats) wouldn't stand a chance against In Gee Chun in a head to head match.

 

A cursory glance through both of their 2016 results shows that In Gee shot an 80 in the last round of the Swinging Skirts Classic. Vicky shot a 75 in that last round. In the Women's PGA, In Gee had a score of 73 in the second round and Vicky shot a 72 in that same round, beating her by 1 shot. She had just shot a score of 80 in the previous round, beating her previous day by 8 strokes. How is this all possible, based on the STATS, this shouldn't happen?

 

My point is this. If you go by stats alone, then, NO it would never happen. However, that's why you "play the game". Stats work over the long term. However, they don't necessarily apply to the actual result in a single event.

 

Let's look at this from another angle. What if you took the bottom tier LPGA player vs the one of the top ranked LPGA players? Let's use the same 2 players from above.

 

A number of people are saying that a bottom tier LPGA player is 'close' or 'closer' on average to a male 'scratch' or even +1 player. According to the numbers then, In Gee Chun would be about a +4 or +5 hdcp. (Yes, I know these are 'loose' numbers for hdcp, so I'm sure my hdcp calculations will take a few hits by the number pros. It's hard to calculate the hdcp of a professional). However, if this is close to true, then there is a difference of 4-5 strokes between the two. However over the course of 50 rounds in 2016, in which several times they played in the same tournaments, Vicky did, in fact, beat In Gee Chun in the same rounds, under the same playing conditions (roughly, based on morning vs afternoon flight, etc).

 

If a bottom tier LPGA player can beat a top-ranked LPGA player. Even when there is a difference of 4 strokes (on average) between the two. Then it would be possible, however improbable, for a 4 hdcp to beat the lower ranked LPGA player.

 

OK...swing away, I know I'll take a few hits on this. I personally have enjoyed this discussion, even when others seem to think it's a waste of time :taunt:

 

Thanks for your note. On your post here, wow you really did some fine research and if you had control of the initial question on this thread you surely would have nailed a formidable reply. And maybe someone will OP something that your post answers on point.

[TheGeekGolfer]

 

 

Any 4's out there who are willing to share their last 30 scores? I can run a statistical analysis & tell you the probability you will beat one of the lower ranked LPGA players (minus the pressure of tee-ing it up before crowds).

I could share but imo the biggest variable is the weather. My high scores are mostly on windy days where the lady pro would have a higher day as well(not nearly as bothered as am I however). My good days are mostly with perfect golf weather and the pro would easily beat me then as well. That's a long way of saying you can run probabilities all you want but the graphs are largely weather related. The scores are not without cause. So the pro and I would largely go up and down scoring together.

Yes, you might "in general" go up or down the same depending on weather conditions. However, those are "general" scores, not actual scores. Let's say you take a 4 hdcp vs a lower ranked LPGA player. They each play 50 rounds against each other in decent weather conditions. Heck, even a variety of weather conditions. Now, is that LPGA player going to beat the 4 hdcp, every single time? NO, I propose that the 4 hdcp could very likely beat her on a few occasions. Now, does the 4 hdcp "generally" have as good a game as the LPGA player? No, she most likely would be better by 4-7 strokes, on average. Does that mean the 4 hdcp will NEVER beat the LPGA player? NO

 

You're looking at your scores as a variety, both good (maybe +1) and bad (that day, +6 or so). And forgetting, that the lower ranked LPGA player is also lower ranked for a reason, she's also not very consistent.

 

Could it happen the first time out? YES! Could it happen the 10th match, YES! That's how probabilities work, even if the 4 hdcp beat her the 1st time out, it doesn't mean it will happen every time. Things will even out "over time" and the LPGA player WILL beat the 4 hdcp the vast majority or even 45/50 times.

 

Let's take the first person on the list of the LPGA 2017 exempt list, in the 101-125 category.

 

Vicky Hurst finished number 101 on the money list in 2016 and has been on tour since 2009. She's NOT a rookie and has won over $1.5 million in her career. She averages 254 off the tee. Her 2016 scoring average was 73. However, if you look at her results for 2016, she had 10 rounds over 78 or higher, even a few 80 and 81s mixed in there.

 

Well, maybe those rounds she scored high, all players scored high. In the 2016 Evian Championship, she shot 78, 79. The winner that year shot -21 over 4 rounds, shooting 63, 66, 65, 69. In the first round, In Gee Chun beat her by 15 strokes the first day and 13 strokes the second day. Yet, her scoring average was 69, compared to Vicky Hurst's average of 73, a difference of ONLY 4 strokes (for the year).

 

Given the amount that she beat her by in the Evian Championship (15 and 13 strokes) and that their averages are 4 shots apart, Vicky (based on stats) wouldn't stand a chance against In Gee Chun in a head to head match.

 

A cursory glance through both of their 2016 results shows that In Gee shot an 80 in the last round of the Swinging Skirts Classic. Vicky shot a 75 in that last round. In the Women's PGA, In Gee had a score of 73 in the second round and Vicky shot a 72 in that same round, beating her by 1 shot. She had just shot a score of 80 in the previous round, beating her previous day by 8 strokes. How is this all possible, based on the STATS, this shouldn't happen?

 

My point is this. If you go by stats alone, then, NO it would never happen. However, that's why you "play the game". Stats work over the long term. However, they don't necessarily apply to the actual result in a single event.

 

Let's look at this from another angle. What if you took the bottom tier LPGA player vs the one of the top ranked LPGA players? Let's use the same 2 players from above.

 

A number of people are saying that a bottom tier LPGA player is 'close' or 'closer' on average to a male 'scratch' or even +1 player. According to the numbers then, In Gee Chun would be about a +4 or +5 hdcp. (Yes, I know these are 'loose' numbers for hdcp, so I'm sure my hdcp calculations will take a few hits by the number pros. It's hard to calculate the hdcp of a professional). However, if this is close to true, then there is a difference of 4-5 strokes between the two. However over the course of 50 rounds in 2016, in which several times they played in the same tournaments, Vicky did, in fact, beat In Gee Chun in the same rounds, under the same playing conditions (roughly, based on morning vs afternoon flight, etc).

 

If a bottom tier LPGA player can beat a top-ranked LPGA player. Even when there is a difference of 4 strokes (on average) between the two. Then it would be possible, however improbable, for a 4 hdcp to beat the lower ranked LPGA player.

 

OK...swing away, I know I'll take a few hits on this. I personally have enjoyed this discussion, even when others seem to think it's a waste of time :taunt:

 

Thanks for your note. On your post here, wow you really did some fine research and if you had control of the initial question on this thread you surely would have nailed a formidable reply. And maybe someone will OP something that your post answers on point.

 

Word not allowed

[PowderedToastMan]

Any 4's out there who are willing to share their last 30 scores? I can run a statistical analysis & tell you the probability you will beat one of the lower ranked LPGA players (minus the pressure of tee-ing it up before crowds).

I could share but imo the biggest variable is the weather. My high scores are mostly on windy days where the lady pro would have a higher day as well(not nearly as bothered as am I however). My good days are mostly with perfect golf weather and the pro would easily beat me then as well. That's a long way of saying you can run probabilities all you want but the graphs are largely weather related. The scores are not without cause. So the pro and I would largely go up and down scoring together.

Yes, you might "in general" go up or down the same depending on weather conditions. However, those are "general" scores, not actual scores. Let's say you take a 4 hdcp vs a lower ranked LPGA player. They each play 50 rounds against each other in decent weather conditions. Heck, even a variety of weather conditions. Now, is that LPGA player going to beat the 4 hdcp, every single time? NO, I propose that the 4 hdcp could very likely beat her on a few occasions. Now, does the 4 hdcp "generally" have as good a game as the LPGA player? No, she most likely would be better by 4-7 strokes, on average. Does that mean the 4 hdcp will NEVER beat the LPGA player? NO

 

You're looking at your scores as a variety, both good (maybe +1) and bad (that day, +6 or so). And forgetting, that the lower ranked LPGA player is also lower ranked for a reason, she's also not very consistent.

 

Could it happen the first time out? YES! Could it happen the 10th match, YES! That's how probabilities work, even if the 4 hdcp beat her the 1st time out, it doesn't mean it will happen every time. Things will even out "over time" and the LPGA player WILL beat the 4 hdcp the vast majority or even 45/50 times.

 

Let's take the first person on the list of the LPGA 2017 exempt list, in the 101-125 category.

 

Vicky Hurst finished number 101 on the money list in 2016 and has been on tour since 2009. She's NOT a rookie and has won over $1.5 million in her career. She averages 254 off the tee. Her 2016 scoring average was 73. However, if you look at her results for 2016, she had 10 rounds over 78 or higher, even a few 80 and 81s mixed in there.

 

Well, maybe those rounds she scored high, all players scored high. In the 2016 Evian Championship, she shot 78, 79. The winner that year shot -21 over 4 rounds, shooting 63, 66, 65, 69. In the first round, In Gee Chun beat her by 15 strokes the first day and 13 strokes the second day. Yet, her scoring average was 69, compared to Vicky Hurst's average of 73, a difference of ONLY 4 strokes (for the year).

 

Given the amount that she beat her by in the Evian Championship (15 and 13 strokes) and that their averages are 4 shots apart, Vicky (based on stats) wouldn't stand a chance against In Gee Chun in a head to head match.

 

A cursory glance through both of their 2016 results shows that In Gee shot an 80 in the last round of the Swinging Skirts Classic. Vicky shot a 75 in that last round. In the Women's PGA, In Gee had a score of 73 in the second round and Vicky shot a 72 in that same round, beating her by 1 shot. She had just shot a score of 80 in the previous round, beating her previous day by 8 strokes. How is this all possible, based on the STATS, this shouldn't happen?

 

My point is this. If you go by stats alone, then, NO it would never happen. However, that's why you "play the game". Stats work over the long term. However, they don't necessarily apply to the actual result in a single event.

 

Let's look at this from another angle. What if you took the bottom tier LPGA player vs the one of the top ranked LPGA players? Let's use the same 2 players from above.

 

A number of people are saying that a bottom tier LPGA player is 'close' or 'closer' on average to a male 'scratch' or even +1 player. According to the numbers then, In Gee Chun would be about a +4 or +5 hdcp. (Yes, I know these are 'loose' numbers for hdcp, so I'm sure my hdcp calculations will take a few hits by the number pros. It's hard to calculate the hdcp of a professional). However, if this is close to true, then there is a difference of 4-5 strokes between the two. However over the course of 50 rounds in 2016, in which several times they played in the same tournaments, Vicky did, in fact, beat In Gee Chun in the same rounds, under the same playing conditions (roughly, based on morning vs afternoon flight, etc).

 

If a bottom tier LPGA player can beat a top-ranked LPGA player. Even when there is a difference of 4 strokes (on average) between the two. Then it would be possible, however improbable, for a 4 hdcp to beat the lower ranked LPGA player.

 

OK...swing away, I know I'll take a few hits on this. I personally have enjoyed this discussion, even when others seem to think it's a waste of time :taunt:

 

Thanks for your note. On your post here, wow you really did some fine research and if you had control of the initial question on this thread you surely would have nailed a formidable reply. And maybe someone will OP something that your post answers on point.

 

Word not allowed

Wow, what a gentleman. It's this kind of horrible stuff that will hopefully cause this thread to be locked, burned, and the ashes disposed in a black hole to never be seen again.

[TheGeekGolfer]

Thanks for your note. On your post here, wow you really did some fine research and if you had control of the initial question on this thread you surely would have nailed a formidable reply. And maybe someone will OP something that your post answers on point.

 

Word not allowed

Wow, what a gentleman. It's this kind of horrible stuff that will hopefully cause this thread to be locked, burned, and the ashes disposed in a black hole to never be seen again.

Whatever! The person I was replying to was acting like one, just lowering myself to their level.

[deadsolid...shank]

What about this question: could a woman who carries a men's 4 cap (lets assume she plays from men's tees and uses those men's ratings/slopes for her index)? This woman would be about a plus 1-2 woman's cap based on the difference between men's and women's ratings. My answer would be the same as before: yes, but not a top player and it would be very rare, maybe 3-5% of the time.

So basically you're saying, as have many on here, that a 4 is a 4?

 

It's that kind of groundbreaking analysis that keeps me coming back to this thread.

Yep, you heard it here only a few hundred times. Although some have argued that there are many types of 4.

It's like watching a lawyer show on television. Page after page of "counselor, allow me to rephrase that".

 

I found the right type of 4.

 

A big time sandbagging 4. One who is actually a 0 or 1.

 

But I thought the last big post (comparing Hurst and Chun) from Geek was very good. At least something different, not the same thing that's been said 100 times already.

 

 

[TheGeekGolfer]

 

 

 

But I thought the last big post (comparing Hurst and Chun) from Geek was very good. At least something different, not the same thing that's been said 100 times already.

 

Thanks

 

 

[juliette91]

Any 4's out there who are willing to share their last 30 scores? I can run a statistical analysis & tell you the probability you will beat one of the lower ranked LPGA players (minus the pressure of tee-ing it up before crowds).

I could share but imo the biggest variable is the weather. My high scores are mostly on windy days where the lady pro would have a higher day as well(not nearly as bothered as am I however). My good days are mostly with perfect golf weather and the pro would easily beat me then as well. That's a long way of saying you can run probabilities all you want but the graphs are largely weather related. The scores are not without cause. So the pro and I would largely go up and down scoring together.

Yes, you might "in general" go up or down the same depending on weather conditions. However, those are "general" scores, not actual scores. Let's say you take a 4 hdcp vs a lower ranked LPGA player. They each play 50 rounds against each other in decent weather conditions. Heck, even a variety of weather conditions. Now, is that LPGA player going to beat the 4 hdcp, every single time? NO, I propose that the 4 hdcp could very likely beat her on a few occasions. Now, does the 4 hdcp "generally" have as good a game as the LPGA player? No, she most likely would be better by 4-7 strokes, on average. Does that mean the 4 hdcp will NEVER beat the LPGA player? NO

 

You're looking at your scores as a variety, both good (maybe +1) and bad (that day, +6 or so). And forgetting, that the lower ranked LPGA player is also lower ranked for a reason, she's also not very consistent.

 

Could it happen the first time out? YES! Could it happen the 10th match, YES! That's how probabilities work, even if the 4 hdcp beat her the 1st time out, it doesn't mean it will happen every time. Things will even out "over time" and the LPGA player WILL beat the 4 hdcp the vast majority or even 45/50 times.

 

Let's take the first person on the list of the LPGA 2017 exempt list, in the 101-125 category.

 

Vicky Hurst finished number 101 on the money list in 2016 and has been on tour since 2009. She's NOT a rookie and has won over $1.5 million in her career. She averages 254 off the tee. Her 2016 scoring average was 73. However, if you look at her results for 2016, she had 10 rounds over 78 or higher, even a few 80 and 81s mixed in there.

 

Well, maybe those rounds she scored high, all players scored high. In the 2016 Evian Championship, she shot 78, 79. The winner that year shot -21 over 4 rounds, shooting 63, 66, 65, 69. In the first round, In Gee Chun beat her by 15 strokes the first day and 13 strokes the second day. Yet, her scoring average was 69, compared to Vicky Hurst's average of 73, a difference of ONLY 4 strokes (for the year).

 

Given the amount that she beat her by in the Evian Championship (15 and 13 strokes) and that their averages are 4 shots apart, Vicky (based on stats) wouldn't stand a chance against In Gee Chun in a head to head match.

 

A cursory glance through both of their 2016 results shows that In Gee shot an 80 in the last round of the Swinging Skirts Classic. Vicky shot a 75 in that last round. In the Women's PGA, In Gee had a score of 73 in the second round and Vicky shot a 72 in that same round, beating her by 1 shot. She had just shot a score of 80 in the previous round, beating her previous day by 8 strokes. How is this all possible, based on the STATS, this shouldn't happen?

 

My point is this. If you go by stats alone, then, NO it would never happen. However, that's why you "play the game". Stats work over the long term. However, they don't necessarily apply to the actual result in a single event.

 

Let's look at this from another angle. What if you took the bottom tier LPGA player vs the one of the top ranked LPGA players? Let's use the same 2 players from above.

 

A number of people are saying that a bottom tier LPGA player is 'close' or 'closer' on average to a male 'scratch' or even +1 player. According to the numbers then, In Gee Chun would be about a +4 or +5 hdcp. (Yes, I know these are 'loose' numbers for hdcp, so I'm sure my hdcp calculations will take a few hits by the number pros. It's hard to calculate the hdcp of a professional). However, if this is close to true, then there is a difference of 4-5 strokes between the two. However over the course of 50 rounds in 2016, in which several times they played in the same tournaments, Vicky did, in fact, beat In Gee Chun in the same rounds, under the same playing conditions (roughly, based on morning vs afternoon flight, etc).

 

If a bottom tier LPGA player can beat a top-ranked LPGA player. Even when there is a difference of 4 strokes (on average) between the two. Then it would be possible, however improbable, for a 4 hdcp to beat the lower ranked LPGA player.

 

OK...swing away, I know I'll take a few hits on this. I personally have enjoyed this discussion, even when others seem to think it's a waste of time :taunt:

 

Thanks for your note. On your post here, wow you really did some fine research and if you had control of the initial question on this thread you surely would have nailed a formidable reply. And maybe someone will OP something that your post answers on point.

 

Word not allowed

Ha! You're right, this topic is driving me crazy and even though your analysis was really good and very informative I jumped on you because it just wasn't germane to the OP. Then I realized not many posts are so your post was right in line, just interesting information and I guess this thread's far beyond the OP. So, point taken.

[nsxguy]

Yes, you might "in general" go up or down the same depending on weather conditions. However, those are "general" scores, not actual scores. Let's say you take a 4 hdcp vs a lower ranked LPGA player. They each play 50 rounds against each other in decent weather conditions. Heck, even a variety of weather conditions. Now, is that LPGA player going to beat the 4 hdcp, every single time? NO, I propose that the 4 hdcp could very likely beat her on a few occasions. Now, does the 4 hdcp "generally" have as good a game as the LPGA player? No, she most likely would be better by 4-7 strokes, on average. Does that mean the 4 hdcp will NEVER beat the LPGA player? NO

 

You're looking at your scores as a variety, both good (maybe +1) and bad (that day, +6 or so). And forgetting, that the lower ranked LPGA player is also lower ranked for a reason, she's also not very consistent.

 

Could it happen the first time out? YES! Could it happen the 10th match, YES! That's how probabilities work, even if the 4 hdcp beat her the 1st time out, it doesn't mean it will happen every time. Things will even out "over time" and the LPGA player WILL beat the 4 hdcp the vast majority or even 45/50 times.

 

Let's take the first person on the list of the LPGA 2017 exempt list, in the 101-125 category.

 

Vicky Hurst finished number 101 on the money list in 2016 and has been on tour since 2009. She's NOT a rookie and has won over $1.5 million in her career. She averages 254 off the tee. Her 2016 scoring average was 73. However, if you look at her results for 2016, she had 10 rounds over 78 or higher, even a few 80 and 81s mixed in there.

 

Well, maybe those rounds she scored high, all players scored high. In the 2016 Evian Championship, she shot 78, 79. The winner that year shot -21 over 4 rounds, shooting 63, 66, 65, 69. In the first round, In Gee Chun beat her by 15 strokes the first day and 13 strokes the second day. Yet, her scoring average was 69, compared to Vicky Hurst's average of 73, a difference of ONLY 4 strokes (for the year).

 

Given the amount that she beat her by in the Evian Championship (15 and 13 strokes) and that their averages are 4 shots apart, Vicky (based on stats) wouldn't stand a chance against In Gee Chun in a head to head match.

 

A cursory glance through both of their 2016 results shows that In Gee shot an 80 in the last round of the Swinging Skirts Classic. Vicky shot a 75 in that last round. In the Women's PGA, In Gee had a score of 73 in the second round and Vicky shot a 72 in that same round, beating her by 1 shot. She had just shot a score of 80 in the previous round, beating her previous day by 8 strokes. How is this all possible, based on the STATS, this shouldn't happen?

 

My point is this. If you go by stats alone, then, NO it would never happen. However, that's why you "play the game". Stats work over the long term. However, they don't necessarily apply to the actual result in a single event.

 

Let's look at this from another angle. What if you took the bottom tier LPGA player vs the one of the top ranked LPGA players? Let's use the same 2 players from above.

 

A number of people are saying that a bottom tier LPGA player is 'close' or 'closer' on average to a male 'scratch' or even +1 player. According to the numbers then, In Gee Chun would be about a +4 or +5 hdcp. (Yes, I know these are 'loose' numbers for hdcp, so I'm sure my hdcp calculations will take a few hits by the number pros. It's hard to calculate the hdcp of a professional). However, if this is close to true, then there is a difference of 4-5 strokes between the two. However over the course of 50 rounds in 2016, in which several times they played in the same tournaments, Vicky did, in fact, beat In Gee Chun in the same rounds, under the same playing conditions (roughly, based on morning vs afternoon flight, etc).

 

If a bottom tier LPGA player can beat a top-ranked LPGA player. Even when there is a difference of 4 strokes (on average) between the two. Then it would be possible, however improbable, for a 4 hdcp to beat the lower ranked LPGA player.

 

OK...swing away, I know I'll take a few hits on this. I personally have enjoyed this discussion, even when others seem to think it's a waste of time :taunt:

 

Thanks for your note. On your post here, wow you really did some fine research and if you had control of the initial question on this thread you surely would have nailed a formidable reply. And maybe someone will OP something that your post answers on point.

 

Word not allowed

Ha! You're right, this topic is driving me crazy and even though your analysis was really good and very informative I jumped on you because it just wasn't germane to the OP. Then I realized not many posts are so your post was right in line, just interesting information and I guess this thread's far beyond the OP. So, point taken.

 

[dap]

What about this question: could a woman who carries a men's 4 cap (lets assume she plays from men's tees and uses those men's ratings/slopes for her index)? This woman would be about a plus 1-2 woman's cap based on the difference between men's and women's ratings. My answer would be the same as before: yes, but not a top player and it would be very rare, maybe 3-5% of the time.

So basically you're saying, as have many on here, that a 4 is a 4?

 

It's that kind of groundbreaking analysis that keeps me coming back to this thread.

Yep, you heard it here only a few hundred times. Although some have argued that there are many types of 4.

It's like watching a lawyer show on television. Page after page of "counselor, allow me to rephrase that".

 

I found the right type of 4.

 

A big time sandbagging 4. One who is actually a 0 or 1.

 

But I thought the last big post (comparing Hurst and Chun) from Geek was very good. At least something different, not the same thing that's been said 100 times already.

Not all good 4's are sandbaggers but they are very capable of shooting their handicap and possibly under. The vanity 4 has has virtually no hope of shooting his handicap. Probably does it a couple of times a year and "forgets" most of his high scores. They don't gamble often because they know they have no hope of winning.

[oregongolfguy]

all i have is to offer is my cousin. she is 24yrs old, thinking about trying the minor leagues and seeing what happens. last time we played together was last fall. just your average 6700yd muni course. fairly open. decent greens, lots of bunkers. she went 68. on a course she had never seen. no bogeys, 14 or 15 gir. pretty much destroyed the course. 250ish in the fairway all day long off the tee, pretty much center of green every approach shot. easy birdies on the par 5's...it was awesome to watch.

if i remember right she is a + handicap. as she put it there was a big difference between casual rounds and the pressure of big tournaments.

 

[golfer07840]

I would agree except for the fact that in this thread we are not comparing ladies handicaps. The lady pros, in general, match up perfectly to the USGA rating system. The course rating is based on a male scratch player that hits it 250 off the tee which is about the average lady pros distance. So the have the scratch players distance but are more consistent at scoring and are in the +1 to +2 neighborhood of a male cap.

 

So CAn a 4 beat the bottom lady pro? Sure-occasionally/rarely. Is the 4 the equivalent of the bottom LPGA pro? Not even close imo.

 

I generally agree that a 4 really is not as good as most think. Is there a generally accepted "crossover" point where the female golfer's handicap is equivalent to the male golfer when playing from the same tees?

 

And is the bottom LPGA pro's "handicap" calculated as a man or woman? Is the +1/+2 figure you offer an equivalent male handicap based on their female handicap (which may be +4 or +5) or their female handicap?

+1 to +2 male cap.

 

I'm pretty close to you but think it's scratch to +1 primarily because I believe that LPGA courses play meaningfully shorter than the stated distances. Members at Westchester CC believe that the course played well below the stated 6600 yards and pin placements were generally easier over the four days than the normal set-up (i.e., closer to the way they set it up for charity outings).

 

I note that no one has even attempted to make good on my challenge to actually set up a match.....

I am in northern/west NJ,so I'd actually go and pay to watch this match if it ever happened.

[golfer07840]

 

Players can get hot in any sport, have a good day and shoot or play better than their average, that's what sports is all about. If you are a 4 hdcp, you are more than capable of shooting a round of par or better. You have all the swing mechanics to do it.

 

100% this. A good friend of mine at one point, about 7 years ago was a 4.

 

He visited home here in NJ and we played 3 rounds in 3 days. He was living full time in FL and playing at least 72 holes a week.

 

His 3 round scores were 80, 108, 78.

 

Now it's possible he was a club 4, and not a traveling 4, but the course he shot 78 on is pretty hard. With that said, an LPGA player, even a short hitting one like Morgan Pressel, would have beaten him by 5 shots, at least.

 

[PowderedToastMan]

If I'm ever getting a really important surgery, I make sure the surgeon is a 4 handicap. Same thing with my lawyer. I just know a 4 handicap is going to get the job done.

[ThinkingPlus]

If I'm ever getting a really important surgery, I make sure the surgeon is a 4 handicap. Same thing with my lawyer. I just know a 4 handicap is going to get the job done.

 

Only if they are WRXers.

[PowderedToastMan]

Ha! So I'm playing out at Oak Creek in Irvine CA last month which has a great range and heavy contingent of Korean women golfers who are awesome. So anyway I go off as a single and I catch a twosome on 3 and the Marshall asks me to play with them through 9 at which they are done.

 

The old man was not playing golf he was just bundled up and giving advise in Korean. The girl he was with was decked out in Taylor Made gear and had one of the purest swings I think I have ever seen.

 

They can't or probably more correct they don't speak a word of English to me, just nod and smile. She proceeds to birdie 4,5,6,8 &9.

 

I'm like wtf! Bombs it off the tee like 285 and a putting stroke that was machine like.

 

Come to find out I was playing with 16 year old Eun Jeong Seong the reigning and 2x US Amateur Champ and was warming up for the ladies Major in Palm Springs.

 

A 4 handicap beat her. Lol. Good luck with that.

If this was at Oak Creek, that was actually Monte Scheinblum in disguise.

[juliette91]

bradleyking posts something we've seen on this board, anecdotal playing or viewing experience that informs his opinion. Then we have well researched analyses of LPGA golfers' scores and attempts at establishing their handicaps. Then we have discussions about how often someone who has a higher handicap will beat someone with a lower handicap, and how much is that differential, really---more discussion about that too. We have very funny comments (love the sarcastic one about the making sure to get a 4 hcp surgeon or lawyer) rude ones (I take some credit here), flip ones, nonsensical ones, very late to the party ones and then not as many as I would have expected plain misogynistic ones with no real basis in fact. Happy to see there weren't more of those. And most of the discussion was quite civil considering the volume of posts and a topic which could easily veer off the rails.

 

That brings me to my final point, if I'm even making any point here, and that's the big idea of keeping an open mind on a discussion like this or any other topic with potential heat. Have to say I started out wanting to defend to the last breath the LPGA player against the 4 handicap male player. But soon I realized that It's rarely if ever so black and white (I'd say pretty much never.) People sometimes make good points that are against the fabric of your core beliefs resulting often in a predictable knee jerk reaction defending your core---without paying much attention to the facts of opposing viewpoints. We're living in highly highly polarized times here in the USA, and the World too. Listening without reacting first is a good thing. Personally, I never learned much by talking.

[bluedot]

I've written this every 20 pages or so on this thread; we're now on page 63, so it's about time to tell this story again.

 

I get to play quite a bit with an LPGA pro (first full year on Tour) when she's in town; good player who has made 3 of 5 cuts so far this year, and a great kid. A friend who is also a single digit index and I play a stroke play match against her with our better ball. We each give her $20 on the first tee, and she keeps the money if she beats us, we get it back if we win. Both of us, btw, play a fair amount of tournament golf.

 

I'll repeat that in case you weren't reading carefully: two single digit men playing their better ball against an LPGA player...

 

We have gotten our money back exactly twice in approx. 25 rounds. Twice.

 

So guess how many times either one of us would have beaten her if we were playing our own ball?

 

Those of you that think that a 4 index guy could beat an LPGA pro just have dead zero idea how good LPGA pros really are.

[farmer]

I've written this every 20 pages or so on this thread; we're now on page 63, so it's about time to tell this story again.

 

I get to play quite a bit with an LPGA pro (first full year on Tour) when she's in town; good player who has made 3 of 5 cuts so far this year, and a great kid. A friend who is also a single digit index and I play a stroke play match against her with our better ball. We each give her $20 on the first tee, and she keeps the money if she beats us, we get it back if we win. Both of us, btw, play a fair amount of tournament golf.

 

I'll repeat that in case you weren't reading carefully: two single digit men playing their better ball against an LPGA player...

 

We have gotten our money back exactly twice in approx. 25 rounds. Twice.

 

So guess how many times either one of us would have beaten her if we were playing our own ball?

 

Those of you that think that a 4 index guy could beat an LPGA pro just have dead zero idea how good LPGA pros really are.

Clearly, you and your friend are not the superb ballstriking 290 avg 4 hdcp's playing against a bottom feeder LPGA player. There's your problem. Plus, you're throwing facts and actual experience into a fantasy thread.

[bph7]

I've written this every 20 pages or so on this thread; we're now on page 63, so it's about time to tell this story again.

 

I get to play quite a bit with an LPGA pro (first full year on Tour) when she's in town; good player who has made 3 of 5 cuts so far this year, and a great kid. A friend who is also a single digit index and I play a stroke play match against her with our better ball. We each give her $20 on the first tee, and she keeps the money if she beats us, we get it back if we win. Both of us, btw, play a fair amount of tournament golf.

 

I'll repeat that in case you weren't reading carefully: two single digit men playing their better ball against an LPGA player...

 

We have gotten our money back exactly twice in approx. 25 rounds. Twice.

 

So guess how many times either one of us would have beaten her if we were playing our own ball?

 

Those of you that think that a 4 index guy could beat an LPGA pro just have dead zero idea how good LPGA pros really are.

 

We do know how good they are. They are about +1-2 men's caps. Would get annihilated by every college D1 starter, the best 16 year old kids, and every pro male golfer who makes any kind of a living. Doesn't mean they aren't great, but don't see the point in turning these middling lpga players into 2000 Tiger. They are good, very good, but would get absolutely annihilated by any high ranked male amateur, as well as all pros, as well as all the top kids 16 and up.