Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

[Red4282]

1 hour ago, glk said:

Not really.  Those are old stats.  Currently over 40 players average 260+.   And you find the unicorn 4 that hits it 300 and you want the shortest LPGA player.    Try 120 in scoring she only hits it 267.     Lol.

I said carry but ok.. give me total distance... Its not too far off and you know it ?‍♂️

[Red4282]

I dont think you guys realize how tough 7400 yards would be on the average lpga pro. 
Looking at the 2019 stats the average total driving distance is about 250ish. 
 

lets break down a par 72 7400 yard course:

10 par 4s averaging 440=4400

4 par 5s averaging 570=2280

4 par 3s averaging 210=840

 

So this means the lpga pro is hitting driver- 190 left to hole, im guessing 24 degree club- hybrid or iron. Thats average! So some they might have  150 in- nice 7 iron, and some they might not even be able to reach in two.

 

par 5s- driver 3 wood full sw (average)

par 3s, either a 3 wood or 3 hybrid on average?

 

extrapolate that to the pga tour- (295 distance average)

 

average par 4-515

average par 5-685

average par-3-260

 

5150+2740+1040= 8,930...

 

dont care how good you are thats ridiculous. Of course there are gonna be some 80s shot. 
 

and by the way its not asinine to say a 4 capper can hit it 300. My brother in law is like a 35 and hits it 300+... granted, its rare be he has the speed lol.

 

 

 

 

 

[xmanhockey7]

The harder the course the more that LPGA player shines. The 4 handicap is still a 4 handicap regardless of how far they hit it. Let’s say their driving is on par with a PGA tour player (unlikely) they are likely horrid in their approach shots and/or possibly short game. Put that 4 head to head with any LPGA players you want. LPGA player beats them every time. It’s not even close. Which is also why I don’t see worst LPGA players being scratch men’s. If they were it would mean that a 4 handicap could indeed beat an LPGA tour player. Which....they can’t. 

[ebk]

5 hours ago, hanfrac said:

California.

 

https://www.ajga.org/tournaments/2020/ajga-girls-invitational-at-stanford/leaderboard

And the best high school female in the State (Country?) isn't even in that field. She just won the US Women's Amateur and is about to play the ANA Inspiration, a tournament she has already played in once before, where she made the cut and had a late-ish tee time for the final round.  The girls are good.

Edited September 7, 2020 by ebk

[ThinkingPlus]

So for folks who want to really get into the weeds when comparing women players to men players there is the handicap index difference between genders of about 5 - 7 strokes.  This is just a base offset between the handicap systems for men and women.  In this thread everything recently has been converted to men's indices to make it easier to compare.  The additional modification that can be entertained is the impact of longer tees than the natural yardage under which the indices were established.  The average LPGA par 72 course length these days is around 6500 yards or maybe a titch more.  The scratch to +2 numbers (men's) being kicked around were established at those distances.  Now if we wish to extrapolate those numbers to longer distance tees without getting into individual course ratings we can use some USGA tables that used to be available for creating ratings for unrated tees.  If we look at the slopes of these lookup tables we can see that the men's adjustments and women's adjustments are not the same (see table below).

 

 

Using values from this table you can see that playing from a 7400 yard course vs a 6500 yard course, a woman would need roughly an extra stroke to make up the difference vs a man (since everything is linear here you take the 700 yard adjustment and add in the 200 yard adjustment to get the 1 stroke).  Another way of thinking about it would be that a woman with an index of +1 (men's in this case) would play more like a scratch man from the longer course.  Caveat: this all mostly works within the accuracy of the USGA Handicap System with the exception of forced carry's the woman is unable to accomplish which is a non-linear effect outside the scope of the simple table above.  I presume this is far more than any of you folks wished to ever see in your life so carry on.

[thatsmybikepunk]

That's crazy Kenny...

[hanfrac]

You could have the match on an 11,000 yard golf course.  I really don't think it matters, unless there's some unfair shot that the woman cannot hit.  I'm guessing the harder you make the golf course, the worse it is for the 4 handicapper vs. the LPGA player.  The 4 handicapper who can hit it 300 yards is likely not straight and is hitting a bunch of balls OB.  Or he has hands of stone and can't chip and putt.  The LPGA tour player will play some of those 480 yard holes like 3 shotters and will probably play them in 4.4-4.5.  I bet the 4 handicapper who can theoretically reach those with driver/4 iron averages higher than 4.4-4.5.

[Soloman1]

The odds of a 4 index shooting an exceptional tournament round of par on a course used last week on the LPGA Tour (6,431 yard par 71 / 134 slope) is 379:1

 

And that score of 71 would have missed the cut. The final winning score was -20.

 

The 4 index is more likely to die of a heart attack within a year (265:1) than shoot even par in a tournament on that course.

[JungleJimbo]

 

[Red4282]

3 hours ago, JungleJimbo said:

 

2 holes in, the guy is a bogey golfer not a 4 cap...

[JungleJimbo]

13 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

2 holes in, the guy is a bogey golfer not a 4 cap...

Yes seems like he had an off-day/ was dazzled by the lady pro... @golfsidekick usually shoots in the mid-/Low-70s (and his YouTube channel=a good watch!) 

[hahanice]

12 hours ago, Red4282 said:

I dont think you guys realize how tough 7400 yards would be on the average lpga pro. 
Looking at the 2019 stats the average total driving distance is about 250ish. 
 

lets break down a par 72 7400 yard course:

10 par 4s averaging 440=4400

4 par 5s averaging 570=2280

4 par 3s averaging 210=840

 

So this means the lpga pro is hitting driver- 190 left to hole, im guessing 24 degree club- hybrid or iron. Thats average! So some they might have  150 in- nice 7 iron, and some they might not even be able to reach in two.

 

par 5s- driver 3 wood full sw (average)

par 3s, either a 3 wood or 3 hybrid on average?

 

extrapolate that to the pga tour- (295 distance average)

 

average par 4-515

average par 5-685

average par-3-260

 

5150+2740+1040= 8,930...

 

dont care how good you are thats ridiculous. Of course there are gonna be some 80s shot. 
 

and by the way its not asinine to say a 4 capper can hit it 300. My brother in law is like a 35 and hits it 300+... granted, its rare be he has the speed lol.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't think you realize how tough 7400 yards would be on a 4 handicap male...

[pinhigh27]

so he lost by 2 with essentially whiffing two shots on the first two holes.. 

[hahanice]

Well the Malaysian tour is certainly not the lpga tour... So let's assume she's worse than everyone on tour. 

 

He is also closer to scratch based on all his other videos saying he's a scratch golfer (I could be wrong about this as I don't follow his channel).

 

 

A 4 cap probably has a scoring average of 80. That's a more realistic number to use. A lpga player probably averages 70 there, maybe less. That's a 10 stroke gap easy.

 

My final point is that I live in a college town, and 2 alumni who are on the lpga edge play with a friend of mine who is a +0.5. they beat him every single day from the non championship tips (6800). I've never seen it this is just what he tells me

[Red4282]

There is already some precedent set to give us insight. Annika played at colonial and michelle wie has play quite a bit of mens event. Using annikas scores, she was playing at a mens +2. Michelle Wie’s best finish was Sony open where she was playing like a mens +4 (which is super impressive I’ll admit). BUT both of these examples are the BEST in the game at the PRIME in their careers. The average run of the mill Lpga is probably equivalent to a mens scratch at best. Put them on a LONG course against a 4 capper who is a long player and absolutely theres a chance. My money would still be on the LPGA player but the title of the thread is “can” and im saying yes its plausible. 
 

[dhc1]

9 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

The average run of the mill Lpga is probably equivalent to a mens scratch at best.
 

the average LPGA is putting up scores around par. If the average round of a player is 3 strokes higher than their handicap: these women are between a +2 and scratch based on that. Scratch is the worst they could be, not the best. 

[leekgolf]

There are several women who are currently on their Division 1 golf team at my club. They've been playing often, one with her dad, a friend of mine who is a 3 handicap and his friends. The others play with an assortment of different men, their dads etc. They all play on the same tees as the men. They regularly beat the men. The guy who is a 3 and plays with his daughter tells me he might score lower than she does once or twice per year. These are girls playing college golf and mostly mid-majors level like MAC, Mountain West etc., not LPGA pros. Imagine what a top pro would do to a 4 handicap.

Edited September 7, 2020 by leekgolf

[Red4282]

56 minutes ago, dhc1 said:

the average LPGA is putting up scores around par. If the average round of a player is 3 strokes higher than their handicap: these women are between a +2 and scratch based on that. Scratch is the worst they could be, not the best. 

Playing from mens tees, no way in h e double hockey sticks

[Red4282]

17 minutes ago, leekgolf said:

There are several women who are currently on their Division 1 golf team at my club. They've been playing often, one with her dad, a friend of mine who is a 3 handicap and his friends. The others play with an assortment of different men, their dads etc. They all play on the same tees as the men. They regularly beat the men. The guy who is a 3 and plays with his daughter tells me he might score lower than she does once or twice per year. These are girls playing college golf and mostly mid-majors level like MAC, Mountain West etc., not LPGA pros. Imagine what a top pro would do to a 4 handicap.

Tipped out?

[xmanhockey7]

30 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

Playing from mens tees, no way in h e double hockey sticks

this is just getting ridiculous. Michelle Wie hadn’t even won in the LPGA when she was playing with the men. Annika had she putted average would have made the cut at colonial. She driving and approach shots were there. Putter let her down big time that week. These are handicaps based on tournament rounds only on the LPGA. I don’t know what the bottom players on the tour would be, but I don’t see it dropping off to a men’s scratch as I don’t see a men’s scratch being good enough to make it to that level in the first place. Those girls are good and I would argue you’ve got to be an extremely good men’s player to have a chance at beating them more than say 10% of the time. And anyone who’s handicap isn’t a + really doesn’t even have a resemblance of a chance. 

[goaliedad30]

I'm curious as to why everyone thinks a 4-handicapper has to be "long". I'm 57. Index fluctuates between 3 & 5, so for argument's sake, that makes me a 4 handicapper. My average drive is probably 235, with "long" pokes being 250-260 (unless there's downhill, crazy roll, wind, etc). A 5-wood is 215 carry, a 7-iron is 155. If I am playing at 6,600 yards, there are many par 4's that I will have 5 or 6-iron to the green after a solidly struck tee shot. Reaching a par 5 in two is a relatively rare occurrence.

 

My scoring average is a shade under 80 (I think it's 79.2 for 2020). Scoring range is from 71-84, although improving.

 

And yes, any female professional would smoke me, from any set of tees.

[hanfrac]

40 minutes ago, goaliedad30 said:

I'm curious as to why everyone thinks a 4-handicapper has to be "long". I'm 57. Index fluctuates between 3 & 5, so for argument's sake, that makes me a 4 handicapper. My average drive is probably 235, with "long" pokes being 250-260 (unless there's downhill, crazy roll, wind, etc). A 5-wood is 215 carry, a 7-iron is 155. If I am playing at 6,600 yards, there are many par 4's that I will have 5 or 6-iron to the green after a solidly struck tee shot. Reaching a par 5 in two is a relatively rare occurrence.

 

My scoring average is a shade under 80 (I think it's 79.2 for 2020). Scoring range is from 71-84, although improving.

 

And yes, any female professional would smoke me, from any set of tees.

 

Red4282 argued that a long-hitting 4 handicapper would have a chance on a long golf course.  I hit it like you do and I also know I have no chance against any touring professional.  As a shorter-hitting 4 handicap, I would not be at all intimidated to take on a long-hitting 4 handicap in a match on a long, difficult golf course.  

 

That said, I've seen some guys who are clubhouse pro's who give lessons that I think I'd have a shot at beating because a lot of those guys play like 4 handicaps.

[goaliedad30]

On a related note, my dad's neighbor in Scottsdale used to be a retired LPGA pro. Can't remember her name; she was a "middle of the pack" type, and probably in her mid 40's when she lived next door to him. She would join their group to play periodically. At that point, he was playing tees that were about 6,500 yards. Fairways were firm and greens reasonably fast, although not super difficult. He said she would shoot the easiest rounds of 70-72 he'd ever seen. Drive it 240-250 down the middle, iron or fairway wood onto the green, putt lagged to 8 inches, and a tap in. She could reach two of the four par 5's in two. He said in the times he played with her, he literally couldn't remember her missing a fairway. If she missed a green, the up & down was almost automatic, unless she caught a bad lie in a bunker.

 

For comparison purposes, my best round ever on his course is 73, and that involved several 8-footers for par saves ...

[Red4282]

1 hour ago, xmanhockey7 said:

this is just getting ridiculous. Michelle Wie hadn’t even won in the LPGA when she was playing with the men. Annika had she putted average would have made the cut at colonial. She driving and approach shots were there. Putter let her down big time that week. These are handicaps based on tournament rounds only on the LPGA. I don’t know what the bottom players on the tour would be, but I don’t see it dropping off to a men’s scratch as I don’t see a men’s scratch being good enough to make it to that level in the first place. Those girls are good and I would argue you’ve got to be an extremely good men’s player to have a chance at beating them more than say 10% of the time. And anyone who’s handicap isn’t a + really doesn’t even have a resemblance of a chance. 

Those dont translate to 7000+ courses. Thats my whole point. Michele wie had success because if anyones game was setup to compete with men it was her. She had speed. Annikas putter let her down u say... yea always something huh. Im not saying the women arent good. They would absolutely tear a 4 capper apart at 6400 yards. But it changes the longer you make it. Just the way the world works, men have a physical advantage, period. Golf is one sport where skill can offset it to a degree. But its still a factor.

[Red4282]

1 hour ago, goaliedad30 said:

I'm curious as to why everyone thinks a 4-handicapper has to be "long". I'm 57. Index fluctuates between 3 & 5, so for argument's sake, that makes me a 4 handicapper. My average drive is probably 235, with "long" pokes being 250-260 (unless there's downhill, crazy roll, wind, etc). A 5-wood is 215 carry, a 7-iron is 155. If I am playing at 6,600 yards, there are many par 4's that I will have 5 or 6-iron to the green after a solidly struck tee shot. Reaching a par 5 in two is a relatively rare occurrence.

 

My scoring average is a shade under 80 (I think it's 79.2 for 2020). Scoring range is from 71-84, although improving.

 

And yes, any female professional would smoke me, from any set of tees.

It doesnt have to be, but for arguments sake, a long 4 capper has a shot with a long course. I dont know why thats so hard to undersrand

[chigolfer1]

Can't we just look at the handicaps of LPGA golfers to get an idea?

[hahanice]

This is the dumbest argument of all times. a 4 handicap has probably established his cap playing at a course thats about 6400 yards. pushing that person back to 7400 would ruin their day way more than a LPGA tour player. for reference, as a +1 i average something like 73.5 or 74 from the tips (6800), when we move back to the championship tees, which they dont even put out, im VERY lucky to break 80. i just dont have the distance. big hitters struggle just as much because you still have to be accurate. and there are only 1 or 2 big hitters that i know of at my club. people act like big hitters grow on trees. and if they are a big hitter and are stuck at a 4, they are inaccurate as hell.

 

so theres 2 scenarios

1: average LPGA vs average 4 at a normal course. he shoots 78, she shoots 69.

2: average LPGA vs average 4 at a long course. he shoots 88, she shoots 74

 

the big hitting 4 fares no better due to the other problems that distance brings into play.

 

you wanna say LPGA pro vs scratch or +1 male, i think its still a beating every day but at least thats worth having the conversation

[xmanhockey7]

21 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

Those dont translate to 7000+ courses. Thats my whole point. Michele wie had success because if anyones game was setup to compete with men it was her. She had speed. Annikas putter let her down u say... yea always something huh. Im not saying the women arent good. They would absolutely tear a 4 capper apart at 6400 yards. But it changes the longer you make it. Just the way the world works, men have a physical advantage, period. Golf is one sport where skill can offset it to a degree. But its still a factor.

It really doesn’t change. It doesn’t matter what distance you set the course up at. The average female LPGA tour player will beat on them. 4 handicap is a 4 for a reason. Let’s say they do gain some shots OTT compared to the LPGA player because they hit it so far...they’re just going to lose shots in other places like approach shots and short game. Honestly, the harder the course becomes the easier it becomes for that LPGA player to win. They will hit the center of the face with way more consistency, hit it straighter, and do far better around the green. Here are the shortest men and longest women. Certainly not the fairest comparison from a statistics stand point as to truly see the difference you need them to all hit from the same spot on the same course. Still...it’s something. 

[setter02]

Very late to this thread, and it's been an interesting read.  My take still goes back to course ratings and set ups and how much they favor decent female players vs. the men.  When I was a club pro, I would play with a couple of the D1 girls who were a +1ish while never breaking par.  I was a 5 (who 2 years previous was a 28 yr old 12-14 capper before entering the industry) and would hover, but didn't break par.  We were basically equals most of the time, while they would do nothing but golf and I would be working 6 days a week and usually 10ish hour days.  

 

We see this in most sports when we try to do a gender cross comparison and for almost all sports (unless judged), I feel that highschool males (top talent) could beat, and very badly beat in some sports, the very best females in the world, it wouldn't even be close in team sports.  

 

From the original question of a 4 beating an LPGA player, yes it could happen often, not likely, but 100% could happen.  People are trying too hard to make the argument of it having to be a top tier LPGA player vs. the reality of just saying 'an LPGA player/pro', which could mean anything.  Hell, Paige played on the LPGA and I don't think anyone can honestly say they felt she was of that caliber.

 

Having seen LPGA set ups, I don't find them overly hard and honestly wouldn't even peg them as more difficult than many of the Men's field day set ups at top tier private clubs here in Southern Ontario.  Having played the day after the Canadian Open, I think I farted in the direction of my ball once and it rolled off the green...

[Red4282]

26 minutes ago, hahanice said:

This is the dumbest argument of all times. a 4 handicap has probably established his cap playing at a course thats about 6400 yards. pushing that person back to 7400 would ruin their day way more than a LPGA tour player. for reference, as a +1 i average something like 73.5 or 74 from the tips (6800), when we move back to the championship tees, which they dont even put out, im VERY lucky to break 80. i just dont have the distance. big hitters struggle just as much because you still have to be accurate. and there are only 1 or 2 big hitters that i know of at my club. people act like big hitters grow on trees. and if they are a big hitter and are stuck at a 4, they are inaccurate as hell.

 

so theres 2 scenarios

1: average LPGA vs average 4 at a normal course. he shoots 78, she shoots 69.

2: average LPGA vs average 4 at a long course. he shoots 88, she shoots 74

 

the big hitting 4 fares no better due to the other problems that distance brings into play.

 

you wanna say LPGA pro vs scratch or +1 male, i think its still a beating every day but at least thats worth having the conversation

So what if ur a 4 cap used to playing 7400???? ?

Edited September 7, 2020 by Red4282