Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

[Lincoln_Arcadia]

A win against a male pro is likely pushing this point a bit too far? Even the most obscure pros playing my home course hope to break 70 while the course is rated 74.5.

To your point, a +1 does stand a chance against a LPGA, and might make the cut against a weaker field. It’s going to be close. Scratch players are really good.

As a 7, I’ve even beaten 4s, because until we hit that 0 mark, we’re simply not that consistent. Many players don’t appreciate what it actually takes to get to a +1.

Those few strokes make a huge difference as far as the topic is concerned.

[Obee]

You are right about the 4-handicapper argument. It's absurd. Just keep in mind that not everyone is a sexist jerk because they get dragged into golf hypotheticals by 4-cappers making equally absurd, cocksure assertions that have already played out in the real world many times.

[nsxguy]

Does post #2327, by a lady, work for you as "proof of concept" ?

[iteachgolf]

The last 2 lpga tour events held in this area were at a course with a rating of 71.1-132. The cut was +4 and +5 respectively. A traveling tournament scratch could absolutely make the cut and would probably do so about 25-30% of the time. Wouldn’t have a prayer at winning the tournament.

 

this isn’t me saying the girls aren’t good. They are amazing. It’s me also saying a tournament scratch is also very good

[Lincoln_Arcadia]

Agree, a traveling scratch player is quite amazing.

However, the topic is for a male 4 who likely would have difficulty shooting his handicap in the same conditions.

[juststeve]

We all have trouble shooting our handicap. About 25% of the time I think is correct.

Steve

[bluedot]

The reframing of the question to a "traveling scratch" male is interesting, and a completely different question from the original.

If the question was asked, "Can a 4 index beat a traveling scratch?", I think we'd all answer "Yes, every now and then IF he has his absolute best day on the exact same day as the traveling scratch has his worst day!" That's just math. The gap between a 4 index and a true scratch player is HUGE.

So if we then agree that a true scratch player can beat an LPGA pro on occasion, again when he has a good day and she doesn't, what does that say about the chances of a 4 beating an LPGA player?

Those chances are so close to zero as to not be worth mentioning. Halley's Comet comes by every so often, but I wouldn't advise betting on it coming by tonight. Or tomorrow night. Or anytime in your lifetime.

[Obee]

I'm going to start a separate thread on what a traveling scratch is so that we can define our terms on this site once and for all!!!

[nsxguy]

It might be a good idea to get really specific about the LPGA player as well as pretty much everything about the proposed comp (especially distance each is playing from).

Eliminate as many variables as you can.

[Barfolomew]

Can? ......yes of course it's possible and a -4 can beat Tiger too duh

You mean how often? ......not often duh

 

Next long shot hypothetical.....

[Lincoln_Arcadia]

A 4 beating a traveling +1 scratch? There’s a huge difference in capabilities.

[Justsomeguy]

How about this: what would an extra 20pct of distance throughout the entire bag do for your handicap?

I think the strong male scratch is theoretically a 300 yard hitter in this hypothetical, and the worst lpga pro is 250 with driver.

Is that basically the question without the genders?

[Guest]

It’s crazy for anyone with a 4hdcp to think they could be an LPGA player. Even a scratch would have trouble. To think otherwise is massively disrespectful to the women’s game.

[Lincoln_Arcadia]

The only issue with what you are saying is that the average male scratch hits 250 and LPGA about the same.

For reference, I outdrive the average male scratch player by 25 yards, but have no delusions.

[Justsomeguy]

In that case the pro mops the floor.

Then rephrasing: how many extra yards throughout the bag does the male amateur need to level the playing field w an lpga pro?

I'm 220-230 short but straight, always working etc. If you give me 300 yards on the driver and a 150yd pw, I'd still lose.

But let's sweeten it. Give me 400 yards on the driver so every par 4 is a wedge in, and every par 5 is a short iron, and every par 3 is no worse than an 8 iron because the fantasy goes for the whole bag. Assume I'm a good putter for an amateur.

So how much distance or skill does an amateur male have to have to beat an lpga pro?

[Lincoln_Arcadia]

My point was it’s not just distance. If it was only about distance and accuracy off the tee, most long drive would dominate the field.

You bring up a good scenario, though. A male long drive versus an LPGA might be something entertaining to watch? Although, the LPGA would likely beat the long drive score wise, it would be entertaining to see.

[bluedot]

For the sake of accuracy, a couple of points about driving distance.

I know that the USGA says that for rating purposes, a scratch golfer is one who averages 250 off the tee and can reach in the green in regulation on a 470 yd. hole at sea level, but I think that's a hypothetical construct that rating teams use to rate courses, rather than a statement of fact based on research. And, at least in my experience, scratch golfers do NOT average 250; they are at least somewhat longer than that, and some are MUCH longer than that.I'm willing to be convinced, but I'm going to have to see a research-based link to be convinced that the "average" driving distance on the LPGA Tour is 250 yds. If you averaged 250 off the tee on the LPGA Tour in 2019, you didn't even make the top 125 in driving distance. There were 129 players who averaged more than 250, and about 30 who averaged less than 250, according to the LPGA website, and if you only drove it 260, you wouldn't make the top 50. The three women pros that I play with are each a LOT longer than 250, I assure you.I think I have a decent amount of personal experience with all three groups; male scratch golfers, male 4 indexes, and LPGA pros. I'd put the scratch guys and the LPGA pros in the same hat as far as distance, with the 4 index guys significantly shorter and MUCH more crooked.

[Lincoln_Arcadia]

Yes, I believe those are carry distances?

[Pparlo]

a +2 ~ +5 probably makes 70-80% of the cuts and keeps their card on 6400-6600 yard courses. That same handicap range would have a higher chance of winning on 6000-6200 yard courses. A 4 Handicapper, legit no shot, would never make a cut. 

[forrester_fire]

On 7/17/2020 at 9:42 AM, bluedot said:

The reframing of the question to a "traveling scratch" male is interesting, and a completely different question from the original.

If the question was asked, "Can a 4 index beat a traveling scratch?", I think we'd all answer "Yes, every now and then IF he has his absolute best day on the exact same day as the traveling scratch has his worst day!" That's just math. The gap between a 4 index and a true scratch player is HUGE.

So if we then agree that a true scratch player can beat an LPGA pro on occasion, again when he has a good day and she doesn't, what does that say about the chances of a 4 beating an LPGA player?

Those chances are so close to zero as to not be worth mentioning. Halley's Comet comes by every so often, but I wouldn't advise betting on it coming by tonight. Or tomorrow night. Or anytime in your lifetime.

 

Halley's Comet comes once every 75-76 years, so the chances of it coming in your lifetime are better than average.

Edited September 3, 2020 by forrester_fire

[nsxguy]

10 minutes ago, forrester_fire said:

 

Halley's Comet comes once every 75-76 years, so the chances of it coming in your lifetime are better than average.

 

I wish the awakening of this old thread came along at the same rate. ?

[Bad9]

57 minutes ago, nsxguy said:

 

I wish the awakening of this old thread came along at the same rate. ?

 

Pparlo just joined, got to make a first post about something.? I'm not even sure how new guys find these threads.

[nsxguy]

2 minutes ago, Bad9 said:

 

Pparlo just joined, got to make a first post about something.? I'm not even sure how new guys find these threads.

 

Yeah, I got that. I don't know either.

 

Whether they read by forum or Unread Content the older the last post (and I'll grant you July isn't THAT long ago) the further down the list it is.

 

Ah well. No biggie.

[forrester_fire]

7 hours ago, nsxguy said:

 

I wish the awakening of this old thread came along at the same rate. ?

 

Google...  They'll google something, one of their hits will be a forum, sign up, and respond in what they don't realize is an ancient thread.

[xmanhockey7]

Even a +1 against a LPGA player would need a career round to even have a chance. Our Ping rep is a +2 or 3 and has a friend who recently got her LPGA card. I asked him if he can beat her from the same tees. He says he’s had a couple rounds he was within a shot or 2, but has yet to actually beat her. 

[Qwiklap]

Lexi Thompson (who does not seem to be playing all that well since the restart) came in second to Sunny Kim at a minor league golf tour event (he had to birdie the final hole to win).  Which means she beat the rest of the field - all of whom I believe would be seriously good pros (though not at Korn Ferry level).  I would imagine +2 minimum to compete on that level.

 

Given that she is missing cuts on the LPGA - by the transitive property - I would say most LPGA regulars would smoke a male +1 (and probably males much better than that).

[pinhigh27]

2 hours ago, xmanhockey7 said:

Even a +1 against a LPGA player would need a career round to even have a chance. Our Ping rep is a +2 or 3 and has a friend who recently got her LPGA card. I asked him if he can beat her from the same tees. He says he’s had a couple rounds he was within a shot or 2, but has yet to actually beat her. 

 

So the LPGA woman would be better than men's +2-+3? Unlikely. 

 

I will take the +3 guy versus an average LPGA tour player every single day. If they're playing Danielle Kang, maybe not. 

 

That's the key to this. The difference between the best PGA tour player and the 100th is smaller than it is for the LPGA. The talent drops off more. 

 

1 hour ago, Qwiklap said:

Lexi Thompson (who does not seem to be playing all that well since the restart) came in second to Sunny Kim at a minor league golf tour event (he had to birdie the final hole to win).  Which means she beat the rest of the field - all of whom I believe would be seriously good pros (though not at Korn Ferry level).  I would imagine +2 minimum to compete on that level.

 

Given that she is missing cuts on the LPGA - by the transitive property - I would say most LPGA regulars would smoke a male +1 (and probably males much better than that).

The winner of that event got 1500, that's like a YMCA church game. People make more money at member guests. 

 

A guy who is " much better " than a +1 is really good at golf. 

[Qwiklap]

34 minutes ago, pinhigh27 said:

 

So the LPGA woman would be better than men's +2-+3? Unlikely. 

 

I will take the +3 guy versus an average LPGA tour player every single day. If they're playing Danielle Kang, maybe not. 

 

That's the key to this. The difference between the best PGA tour player and the 100th is smaller than it is for the LPGA. The talent drops off more. 

 

The winner of that event got 1500, that's like a YMCA church game. People make more money at member guests. 

 

A guy who is " much better " than a +1 is really good at golf. 

 

Maybe you are unfamiliar with mini tour events -- but those guys mostly hungry high-level pros and very talented post-college golfers on that tour.  It doesn't pay much but that's not to say its not a tough competition.  Many of the players go on to Korn Ferry and PGA -- Ted Potter Jr. and Kisner were mini-tour legends before they got their cards. 

 

My money is the average card-carrying LPGA player would smoke a +1 Am from the same tees. 

 

And BTW -- Sunny Kim used to play on Korn Ferry - and I suspect he is trying to get back to it. 

Edited September 4, 2020 by Qwiklap

[pinhigh27]

What does smoke mean? Let's say it's rated the tees are 72, +1 is probably going to shoot between 71-78. What do you think the LPGA woman would shoot? What do you think their handicap would be in men's system? 

 

A tee with a mens rating of 73 would probably be among the hardest courses they'd play all year from a rating standpoint.  

[xmanhockey7]

1 hour ago, pinhigh27 said:

 

So the LPGA woman would be better than men's +2-+3? Unlikely. 

 

I will take the +3 guy versus an average LPGA tour player every single day. If they're playing Danielle Kang, maybe not. 

 

That's the key to this. The difference between the best PGA tour player and the 100th is smaller than it is for the LPGA. The talent drops off more. 

 

The winner of that event got 1500, that's like a YMCA church game. People make more money at member guests. 

 

A guy who is " much better " than a +1 is really good at golf. 

LPGA woman is ABSOLUTELY better than mens +2 or 3. These are handicap index’s for LPGA players (all +) and based on tournament rounds. Not casual Sunday scores. I don’t think you understand just how good they are. 

 

Edited September 4, 2020 by xmanhockey7