Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[lowheel]

Scratch

 

Fair enough. You might be right. I just think that to come on and say that a legitimate scratch golfer ( not a vanity cap) has absolutely zero chance whatsoever of shooting seven or eight shots OVER his handicap is a pretty big stretch. I’m not saying it’s a guaranteed not by a long shot, but to say there’s zero chance?

 

I honestly can’t think of the last time I had a round where I shot 10 over my handicap in a tournament. It might’ve been 20 years ago. Most good tournament scratch golfers have a range of about eight shots in any given season. Meaning they shoot somewhere between two or three under their handicap and five or six over there handicap literally every single day of the year.

To Definitively say that they have “no chance “ whatsoever? Just seems like a stretch to me.

 

How many play major venues 700-800 yards longer then their normal venues with 14 greens that slope like rollercoasters? This isn’t your local track or some muni. Those #s you quote don’t even apply here. Think outside the box a little.

 

Shooting 10 over your cap happens all the time on tour during majors.

 

Last weeks winner Gary woodland shot 75-80 in last years masters.

Henrik Stenson shot 77-75

Tommy Fleetwood 78-75

Bubba Watson 74-78

Webb Simpson 75-77

Zach Johnson 77-74

Patrick reed 76-77

Angel Cabrera 79-75

Vijay Singh 78-75

 

 

These aren’t cherry picked it’s just a sample of all ages and calibres of tour pros to show you the difficult task the scratch would have. These guys have played Augusta a ton of times with plenty of practice rounds and are +6+7s élite pga tour players and still shoot those #s. Some of them have won there...

 

But a scratch walks in there in the scenario presented by the op and breaks 85 half the time? Seriously?

 

This is quite possibly the worst example of statistics I’ve ever seen posted on the site. You quite literally take the absolute worst scores that a tour pro shoots at the high end of his range and asked me if I think a scratch golfer Can compare to them.

If a tour pro has a handicap of approximately +6 and his range is approximately seven or eight shots, then his high end scores are not that far off of the low-end of a scratch.

 

Don’t read that that I’m saying a scratch at his best is on par with the most elite players in the world. I’m not saying that at all. I’m simply saying that if A scratch plays well, he can be with in eight shots of a tour players worst round.

 

What you’re doing in this thread is simply saying “I feel this is the way it is therefore it must be so.”

 

Then you try to use completely cherry picked statistics to point out how difficult the course is.

 

I’m not using cherry pick statistics. I’m saying over the course of hundreds of thousands of rounds played around the world people have a handicap it is determined. Their handicapped is determined by what they actually shoot. Not by what they think they will shoot. Zero handicap is zero handicap because he has a certain ability to shoot a score on any golf course based on its difficulty rating. You’re saying that the guy who created the method that determines how golf courses difficulties are measured is basically wrong by 7 shots.

 

If you said he was wrong by one shot or two shots I might accept it but you’re saying that the guy who does nothing but this very thing for a living for the last 35 years is wrong by almost 150%. He’s saying the course rating is six over par and you’re saying the course rating is 13 or 14 over par.

 

And yes I’ve read the OP’s original premise.

 

Jesus Christ you’re all over the place. You have no argument other than the Knuths rating and using simple math. You can’t properly rate a course during a major especially during a final round. It’s impossible. A static course that stays the same over a period of a month is easy to due however a major venue such as the masters changes dramatically in a span of 7 days.

 

I provided a list of top level players in their 20s 30s and 40s and heck one in his 50s some major champions some winners at the masters that have access to the facilities and course for weeks at a time and all the practice time they need. Knuths rating which you take as gospel was taken during practice rounds from outside the ropes... the greens were 12. It’s a generous estimate at best. I respect his work in the field but he’s not immune to making mistakes or exaggerated statements.

If indeed you read the ops question/challenge. You show up sight unseen other than tv and have 1 hour warmup in Sunday masters conditions from tournament back tees.

 

Ask yourself how many scratches are scratches on 7400 yard tracks? How many have greens at their course that run 14. When you break down those #s the small % left of scratches who can challenge that # is minuscule. You say there’s no tournament pressure. Do you believe playing Augusta for the first time (and probably your last time) even with no crowd will not give some people pause? Show me some outside the box thinking and not emotional pleas to respect the rating!! You denigrating my “stats” doesn’t bother me because it disproves your theory that no one ever shoots 10 above their cap. I believe it’s possible like I believe I can win the lotto so yes technically semantically possible. Realistic? Of course not.

[isaacbm]

Lowheal

 

The funny thing, is in the past we’ve been on the same side of most debates.

I just truly don’t understand how you assume it’s an automatic that a legitimate tournament scratch is going to shoot so high.

The extra two or 300 yards is made up by adding 1.5 or so to their score. The extra difficulty in greens is made up by adding approximately 3 to 5 shots to their score.

 

Do you think that the stress factor of playing at Augusta is going to add about 6-8 more shotss??

[lowheel]

Lowheal

 

The funny thing, is in the past we’ve been on the same side of most debates.

I just truly don’t understand how you assume it’s an automatic that a legitimate tournament scratch is going to shoot so high.

The extra two or 300 yards is made up by adding 1.5 or so to their score. The extra difficulty in greens is made up by adding approximately 3 to 5 shots to their score.

 

Do you think that the stress factor of playing at Augusta is going to add about 6-8 more shotss??

 

Honestly, this is the the 50th time I’ve said this on this thread. You have to go there to see the potential carnage, tv does not do it justice. The elevation changes, the side hill lies.

If you believe that the extra yardage is only 1.5-3 shots difference then I don’t know what to say because it’s a long course.Those greens are not made to absorb long irons or hybrid/woods. #1 alone if your scratch hits it 250-260 on average he’s hitting a wood to an insane green complex with a deep bunker.#4 is 250 yards over a bunker with OB all around. There are 7-8 more holes like that. They won’t be hitting short irons into any par 4 except #3 and that green is all kinds of evil if you’re a hair long or short. I’m trying to understand you’re reluctance to accept that the task is much more daunting than you’re stating. Throw out conventional handicap math. This is a Major test that even tourney scratches would struggle to overcome in this scenario. The scenario is key. Any of other theory or scenario should go to another thread as were discussing the one the op proposed. I think they’d be close to 85 but that seems to me as the sweet spot in the over under. If I was betting money I’d bet my house on the over. Last springs final rounds should tell you all you need to know about the real difficulty.

 

For the record, if we’re talking us open at oakmont same scenario I feel the same way.

[bscinstnct]

Geoff Ogilvy on the greens.. This is key since we have to assume most scratch golfers will be farther even farther from the hole in nearly every instance than a pro. And this would compound putting issues on these treacherous greens even more for them than he is describing here.

 

 

http://golfweek.com/...-famous-greens/

 

 

 

 

"You just don’t regularly get putts from 15 feet that break 10 feet, and on the true starting line, that can happen on most greens at Augusta. The first green for sure, the second green definitely … you can have a putt that breaks 30 feet on the second hole. On the third, you can have a putt that breaks 20 feet. So it’s having that imagination and trust that it’s going to break that far because the most you are going to see at a regular tour event is 2 feet, maybe? On tour, 2 feet is quite a lot from 15 feet, and that would be rare. All of a sudden you’re at the Masters on the third hole, and it might be breaking 6 or 8 feet."

 

On tour, 2 feet is quite a lot from 15 feet, and that would be rare. All of a sudden you’re at the Masters on the third hole, and it might be breaking 6 or 8 feet."

 

"Dusek: How often when you are putting at Augusta National will you find yourself not trying to make it, but rather, trying to leave a stress-free second putt?

Ogilvy: All the time. You’re not actively trying to not hole it, but you may be trying to hit it in such a way that if it does not go in, it will very likely stop next to the hole. You have to make that assessment at Augusta on almost every putt over a certain distance. Every little bit closer you get to playing the correct line to hole it opens up a whole window of bad things that can happen. You can putt it off the green sometimes"

[Hattie Pants]

Lowheal

 

The funny thing, is in the past we've been on the same side of most debates.

I just truly don't understand how you assume it's an automatic that a legitimate tournament scratch is going to shoot so high.

The extra two or 300 yards is made up by adding 1.5 or so to their score. The extra difficulty in greens is made up by adding approximately 3 to 5 shots to their score.

 

Do you think that the stress factor of playing at Augusta is going to add about 6-8 more shotss??

 

Honestly, this is the the 50th time I've said this on this thread. You have to go there to see the potential carnage, tv does not do it justice. The elevation changes, the side hill lies.

If you believe that the extra yardage is only 1.5-3 shots difference then I don't know what to say because it's a long course.Those greens are not made to absorb long irons or hybrid/woods. #1 alone if your scratch hits it 250-260 on average he's hitting a wood to an insane green complex with a deep bunker.#4 is 250 yards over a bunker with OB all around. There are 7-8 more holes like that. They won't be hitting short irons into any par 4 except #3 and that green is all kinds of evil if you're a hair long or short. I'm trying to understand you're reluctance to accept that the task is much more daunting than you're stating. Throw out conventional handicap math. This is a Major test that even tourney scratches would struggle to overcome in this scenario. The scenario is key. Any of other theory or scenario should go to another thread as were discussing the one the op proposed. I think they'd be close to 85 but that seems to me as the sweet spot in the over under. If I was betting money I'd bet my house on the over. Last springs final rounds should tell you all you need to know about the real difficulty.

 

For the record, if we're talking us open at oakmont same scenario I feel the same way.

 

Well the "sweet spot" of an over/under would certainly suggest more than a miniscule chance of the under. :golfer:

[isaacbm]

Lowheal

 

The funny thing, is in the past we’ve been on the same side of most debates.

I just truly don’t understand how you assume it’s an automatic that a legitimate tournament scratch is going to shoot so high.

The extra two or 300 yards is made up by adding 1.5 or so to their score. The extra difficulty in greens is made up by adding approximately 3 to 5 shots to their score.

 

Do you think that the stress factor of playing at Augusta is going to add about 6-8 more shotss??

 

Honestly, this is the the 50th time I’ve said this on this thread. You have to go there to see the potential carnage, tv does not do it justice. The elevation changes, the side hill lies.

If you believe that the extra yardage is only 1.5-3 shots difference then I don’t know what to say because it’s a long course.Those greens are not made to absorb long irons or hybrid/woods. #1 alone if your scratch hits it 250-260 on average he’s hitting a wood to an insane green complex with a deep bunker.#4 is 250 yards over a bunker with OB all around. There are 7-8 more holes like that. They won’t be hitting short irons into any par 4 except #3 and that green is all kinds of evil if you’re a hair long or short. I’m trying to understand you’re reluctance to accept that the task is much more daunting than you’re stating. Throw out conventional handicap math. This is a Major test that even tourney scratches would struggle to overcome in this scenario. The scenario is key. Any of other theory or scenario should go to another thread as were discussing the one the op proposed. I think they’d be close to 85 but that seems to me as the sweet spot in the over under. If I was betting money I’d bet my house on the over. Last springs final rounds should tell you all you need to know about the real difficulty.

 

For the record, if we’re talking us open at oakmont same scenario I feel the same way.

 

Fair enough. We disagree. Honestly though in response to one point you made, OBEE is literally the only person I’ve ever played with who is a scratch that hits it as short as he does. Almost every tournament scratch that I’ve ever played with hits the ball at least 280 .

 

Also, when somebody says over/under they’re basically saying that’s the middle point. You would not bet your house on that. You might bet $1000 but you wouldn’t bet your house. I would say your betting your house number would be 78.

 

 

[lowheel]

Lowheal

 

The funny thing, is in the past we’ve been on the same side of most debates.

I just truly don’t understand how you assume it’s an automatic that a legitimate tournament scratch is going to shoot so high.

The extra two or 300 yards is made up by adding 1.5 or so to their score. The extra difficulty in greens is made up by adding approximately 3 to 5 shots to their score.

 

Do you think that the stress factor of playing at Augusta is going to add about 6-8 more shotss??

 

Honestly, this is the the 50th time I’ve said this on this thread. You have to go there to see the potential carnage, tv does not do it justice. The elevation changes, the side hill lies.

If you believe that the extra yardage is only 1.5-3 shots difference then I don’t know what to say because it’s a long course.Those greens are not made to absorb long irons or hybrid/woods. #1 alone if your scratch hits it 250-260 on average he’s hitting a wood to an insane green complex with a deep bunker.#4 is 250 yards over a bunker with OB all around. There are 7-8 more holes like that. They won’t be hitting short irons into any par 4 except #3 and that green is all kinds of evil if you’re a hair long or short. I’m trying to understand you’re reluctance to accept that the task is much more daunting than you’re stating. Throw out conventional handicap math. This is a Major test that even tourney scratches would struggle to overcome in this scenario. The scenario is key. Any of other theory or scenario should go to another thread as were discussing the one the op proposed. I think they’d be close to 85 but that seems to me as the sweet spot in the over under. If I was betting money I’d bet my house on the over. Last springs final rounds should tell you all you need to know about the real difficulty.

 

For the record, if we’re talking us open at oakmont same scenario I feel the same way.

 

Fair enough. We disagree. Honestly though in response to one point you made, OBEE is literally the only person I’ve ever played with who is a scratch that hits it as short as he does. Almost every tournament scratch that I’ve ever played with hits the ball at least 280 .

 

Also, when somebody says over/under they’re basically saying that’s the middle point. You would not bet your house on that. You might bet $1000 but you wouldn’t bet your house. I would say your betting your house number would be 78.

 

Fair enough. But i would bet my house if i got to choose the scratch. Tournament scratches are not the same as everyday homecourse scratches that we`ll agree on. I teach plenty of scratches with ages varying from 22 to 55. they all hit it different yardages off the tee. So in essence im saying it would take a scratch whos tourney hardened, hits it at least 280-285, has a trmendous short game and is a member at oakmont, winged foot or oakland hills or one of the sea island boys as their greens are prepped to like 13-14 regularly.How many fit that profile in your opinion? I say very few. FYI i enjoy the back and forths and respect your opinion on this.Always fun discussing these things, all in good fun

[lowheel]

Scratch

 

Fair enough. You might be right. I just think that to come on and say that a legitimate scratch golfer ( not a vanity cap) has absolutely zero chance whatsoever of shooting seven or eight shots OVER his handicap is a pretty big stretch. I’m not saying it’s a guaranteed not by a long shot, but to say there’s zero chance?

 

I honestly can’t think of the last time I had a round where I shot 10 over my handicap in a tournament. It might’ve been 20 years ago. Most good tournament scratch golfers have a range of about eight shots in any given season. Meaning they shoot somewhere between two or three under their handicap and five or six over there handicap literally every single day of the year.

To Definitively say that they have “no chance “ whatsoever? Just seems like a stretch to me.

 

How many play major venues 700-800 yards longer then their normal venues with 14 greens that slope like rollercoasters? This isn’t your local track or some muni. Those #s you quote don’t even apply here. Think outside the box a little.

 

Shooting 10 over your cap happens all the time on tour during majors.

 

Last weeks winner Gary woodland shot 75-80 in last years masters.

Henrik Stenson shot 77-75

Tommy Fleetwood 78-75

Bubba Watson 74-78

Webb Simpson 75-77

Zach Johnson 77-74

Patrick reed 76-77

Angel Cabrera 79-75

Vijay Singh 78-75

 

 

These aren’t cherry picked it’s just a sample of all ages and calibres of tour pros to show you the difficult task the scratch would have. These guys have played Augusta a ton of times with plenty of practice rounds and are +6+7s élite pga tour players and still shoot those #s. Some of them have won there...

 

But a scratch walks in there in the scenario presented by the op and breaks 85 half the time? Seriously?

 

Quite possibly the most realistic statistical post in this entire thread. How may scratch golfers think they're within 5 strokes of some of the best golfers on the planet? Come on people.

 

This is the best slant your stats to support your argument thread ever. Gold! The point above for instance just "cherry picks" the instances in which a pro golfer had a bad tournament. Literally has nothing to do with "do we think a scratch is within 5 of Gary Woodland", the question is COULD a scratch break 85 at Augusta. The answer is logically, statistically, completely YES. They COULD.

 

Oh no!! you used caps!!!! you won the discussion. good job

[Hattie Pants]

Thank you so much!! :taunt: Just making sure we both understood the question is 'could' and the answer is 'yes'

[isaacbm]

Lowheal

 

The funny thing, is in the past we’ve been on the same side of most debates.

I just truly don’t understand how you assume it’s an automatic that a legitimate tournament scratch is going to shoot so high.

The extra two or 300 yards is made up by adding 1.5 or so to their score. The extra difficulty in greens is made up by adding approximately 3 to 5 shots to their score.

 

Do you think that the stress factor of playing at Augusta is going to add about 6-8 more shotss??

 

Honestly, this is the the 50th time I’ve said this on this thread. You have to go there to see the potential carnage, tv does not do it justice. The elevation changes, the side hill lies.

If you believe that the extra yardage is only 1.5-3 shots difference then I don’t know what to say because it’s a long course.Those greens are not made to absorb long irons or hybrid/woods. #1 alone if your scratch hits it 250-260 on average he’s hitting a wood to an insane green complex with a deep bunker.#4 is 250 yards over a bunker with OB all around. There are 7-8 more holes like that. They won’t be hitting short irons into any par 4 except #3 and that green is all kinds of evil if you’re a hair long or short. I’m trying to understand you’re reluctance to accept that the task is much more daunting than you’re stating. Throw out conventional handicap math. This is a Major test that even tourney scratches would struggle to overcome in this scenario. The scenario is key. Any of other theory or scenario should go to another thread as were discussing the one the op proposed. I think they’d be close to 85 but that seems to me as the sweet spot in the over under. If I was betting money I’d bet my house on the over. Last springs final rounds should tell you all you need to know about the real difficulty.

 

For the record, if we’re talking us open at oakmont same scenario I feel the same way.

 

Fair enough. We disagree. Honestly though in response to one point you made, OBEE is literally the only person I’ve ever played with who is a scratch that hits it as short as he does. Almost every tournament scratch that I’ve ever played with hits the ball at least 280 .

 

Also, when somebody says over/under they’re basically saying that’s the middle point. You would not bet your house on that. You might bet $1000 but you wouldn’t bet your house. I would say your betting your house number would be 78.

 

Fair enough. But i would bet my house if i got to choose the scratch. Tournament scratches are not the same as everyday homecourse scratches that we`ll agree on. I teach plenty of scratches with ages varying from 22 to 55. they all hit it different yardages off the tee. So in essence im saying it would take a scratch whos tourney hardened, hits it at least 280-285, has a trmendous short game and is a member at oakmont, winged foot or oakland hills or one of the sea island boys as their greens are prepped to like 13-14 regularly.How many fit that profile in your opinion? I say very few. FYI i enjoy the back and forths and respect your opinion on this.Always fun discussing these things, all in good fun

And another point that I often overlook in these debates is that so much of it is dependent on the sort of people youre used to playing with. A lot of my friends are golf professionals and really high-level amateur players. Guys who win provincial and national Mid am champs.

 

At our club, we currently have three players who have won the provincial mid amateur, two players who have won Canada’s national mid-amateur. Two x tour pros who play 20 times a year and win every event in the city even though their cap in the computer says +1.

 

So I’ll admit that my view of a “scratch”might be a little skewed. I’ve just always felt if it isn’t tournament scores it doesn’t count.

At our club last year, 1.2 index didn’t get in the championship flight. 21 guys 1 or lower. 75.5/143/7250 Canadian tour course.

To me though, that is what a regular scratch looks like. I suppose that’s not normal though ... ��

[Bye]

Thank you so much!! :taunt: Just making sure we both understood the question is 'could' and the answer is 'yes'

 

Still waiting for your logical, and statistical reasoning. You must have something surely...

[Hattie Pants]

Easy:

 

Possible means could happen.

 

The OP asked if it was possible.

 

Even the nay sayers say it cooullldd happen just not likely under x,y,z circumstance that they choose.

 

So therefore, yes, it is possible, according to everyone.

 

That's a+b=c logic

[benno_r]

Easy:

 

Possible means could happen.

 

The OP asked if it was possible.

 

Even the nay sayers say it cooullldd happen just not likely under x,y,z circumstance that they choose.

 

So therefore, yes, it is possible, according to everyone.

 

That's a+b=c logic

 

That would work on the assumption that logic didn't leave the discussion for most of the no's (pretty much the first page).

[lowheel]

Easy:

 

Possible means could happen.

 

The OP asked if it was possible.

 

Even the nay sayers say it cooullldd happen just not likely under x,y,z circumstance that they choose.

 

So therefore, yes, it is possible, according to everyone.

 

That's a+b=c logic

 

Ah, I see. you're that guy. good luck with that.Have a good weekend

[RobotDoctor]

Easy:

 

Possible means could happen.

 

The OP asked if it was possible.

 

Even the nay sayers say it cooullldd happen just not likely under x,y,z circumstance that they choose.

 

So therefore, yes, it is possible, according to everyone.

 

That's a+b=c logic

 

We didn't choose X, Y or Z, the OP did with the original criteria. The more this issue is discussed the more I believe a scratch golfer will not break 85 given the criteria. Any other scenario is irrelevant to the question posed on this topic.

[Bye]

Easy:

 

Possible means could happen.

 

The OP asked if it was possible.

 

Even the nay sayers say it cooullldd happen just not likely under x,y,z circumstance that they choose.

 

So therefore, yes, it is possible, according to everyone.

 

That's a+b=c logic

 

We didn't choose X, Y or Z, the OP did with the original criteria. The more this issue is discussed the more I believe a scratch golfer will not break 85 given the criteria. Any other scenario is irrelevant to the question posed on this topic.

 

I think most of the under group would change their mind standing on the second tee.

[lowheel]

Lowheal

 

The funny thing, is in the past we've been on the same side of most debates.

I just truly don't understand how you assume it's an automatic that a legitimate tournament scratch is going to shoot so high.

The extra two or 300 yards is made up by adding 1.5 or so to their score. The extra difficulty in greens is made up by adding approximately 3 to 5 shots to their score.

 

Do you think that the stress factor of playing at Augusta is going to add about 6-8 more shotss??

 

Honestly, this is the the 50th time I've said this on this thread. You have to go there to see the potential carnage, tv does not do it justice. The elevation changes, the side hill lies.

If you believe that the extra yardage is only 1.5-3 shots difference then I don't know what to say because it's a long course.Those greens are not made to absorb long irons or hybrid/woods. #1 alone if your scratch hits it 250-260 on average he's hitting a wood to an insane green complex with a deep bunker.#4 is 250 yards over a bunker with OB all around. There are 7-8 more holes like that. They won't be hitting short irons into any par 4 except #3 and that green is all kinds of evil if you're a hair long or short. I'm trying to understand you're reluctance to accept that the task is much more daunting than you're stating. Throw out conventional handicap math. This is a Major test that even tourney scratches would struggle to overcome in this scenario. The scenario is key. Any of other theory or scenario should go to another thread as were discussing the one the op proposed. I think they'd be close to 85 but that seems to me as the sweet spot in the over under. If I was betting money I'd bet my house on the over. Last springs final rounds should tell you all you need to know about the real difficulty.

 

For the record, if we're talking us open at oakmont same scenario I feel the same way.

 

Fair enough. We disagree. Honestly though in response to one point you made, OBEE is literally the only person I've ever played with who is a scratch that hits it as short as he does. Almost every tournament scratch that I've ever played with hits the ball at least 280 .

 

Also, when somebody says over/under they're basically saying that's the middle point. You would not bet your house on that. You might bet $1000 but you wouldn't bet your house. I would say your betting your house number would be 78.

 

Fair enough. But i would bet my house if i got to choose the scratch. Tournament scratches are not the same as everyday homecourse scratches that we`ll agree on. I teach plenty of scratches with ages varying from 22 to 55. they all hit it different yardages off the tee. So in essence im saying it would take a scratch whos tourney hardened, hits it at least 280-285, has a trmendous short game and is a member at oakmont, winged foot or oakland hills or one of the sea island boys as their greens are prepped to like 13-14 regularly.How many fit that profile in your opinion? I say very few. FYI i enjoy the back and forths and respect your opinion on this.Always fun discussing these things, all in good fun

And another point that I often overlook in these debates is that so much of it is dependent on the sort of people youre used to playing with. A lot of my friends are golf professionals and really high-level amateur players. Guys who win provincial and national Mid am champs.

 

At our club, we currently have three players who have won the provincial mid amateur, two players who have won Canada's national mid-amateur. Two x tour pros who play 20 times a year and win every event in the city even though their cap in the computer says +1.

 

So I'll admit that my view of a "scratch"might be a little skewed. I've just always felt if it isn't tournament scores it doesn't count.

At our club last year, 1.2 index didn't get in the championship flight. 21 guys 1 or lower. 75.5/143/7250 Canadian tour course.

To me though, that is what a regular scratch looks like. I suppose that's not normal though ... ��

 

Well that makes sense then. Im a mini tour guy myself and my club has 2 championship flights as well. You can ask Chad Mcaan on here about the sea island boys. Not your typical course either,the scratches there play with tour guys all the time. i also practiced at whisper rock in arizona. Theres like 10-12 tour pros at that course and alot of aspiring pros. the scratches there are tournament tested. At this point its semantic to go over that point but a typical scratch in this scenario for me its a no 100% of the time. tournament scratch as described previously i would give a 15-20% chance. Ive played 13 us open qualifiers from sectionals all the way to finals.the meltdowns ive seen by scratches at pretty basic courses who are club champs. city champs, mid ams etc as you described are plentiful. pressure affects people differently and when it starts snow balling look out. the x factor is there and cant be denied with simple math. Alot of guys talk big game and then reality sets in when theyre out of their comfort zone.

[Hattie Pants]

I just think it's funny that you say that tested players you would give a 15-20% chance, yet that doesn't equate to "it's possible".

 

That's why I think the logical argument is pretty simple, it's possible. You don't have to defend how difficult it is with your experience and qualifications, and I don't minimize the task at hand, it's certainly daunting.

[lowheel]

I just think it's funny that you say that tested players you would give a 15-20% chance, yet that doesn't equate to "it's possible".

 

That's why I think the logical argument is pretty simple, it's possible. You don't have to defend how difficult it is with your experience and qualifications, and I don't minimize the task at hand, it's certainly daunting.

 

[Hattie Pants]

Just tell me what about that statement is incorrect. Or since you've decided the discussion is over, maybe it is!

[widow-maker]

Rory shot an 80 in his prime.

 

2 triples. One one 10. One on 12.

 

Boom, thats 78.

 

And 11. I could see people making all kinds of horrific scores there.

 

Scratch guy could go +9 or +10 on 3 holes right there.

Yeah, but not all of them would. Some of them might actually make 3 or 4 birdies which would really give them a lot of leeway to break 85. There are a lot that wouldn't, but there are some that would. There are plenty of scratch golfers who are members at Oakmont, Oakland Hills, Hazeltine, Shinnecock that wouldn't be the least bit intimidated by fast greens and lots of undulation. There are some good ams out there who can play.

[North Texas]

Okay, am I the only one who thinks that if a scratch golfer can't break 85 at Augusta (under the conditions set forth in the original OP) then the course rating has to be higher than 78.1? Like maybe 80+?

[Mcgeeno]

Is it possible?

 

Yes.

 

Even 90 percent of the people disagreeing have half said the same thing. "depends on the scratch" "only if he's a long hiter" etc.

 

Its possible though, most have admitted as much over the course of 880+ posts.

 

Its 85. Not 71. A scratch can smack his way around and make 12 bogeys or 14 bogeys and 3 birdies etc.

[RobotDoctor]

Is it possible?

 

Yes.

 

Even 90 percent of the people disagreeing have half said the same thing. "depends on the scratch" "only if he's a long hiter" etc.

 

Its possible though, most have admitted as much over the course of 880+ posts.

 

Its 85. Not 71. A scratch can smack his way around and make 12 bogeys or 14 bogeys and 3 birdies etc.

 

How many people are scratch playing a golf course in excess of 7,400 yards with undulating greens at least 14 on on the Stimpmeter? 10 foot putts with 5-6 feet of break. The reality is that most likely no scratch golfer plays in those conditions .... ever. Even Oakmont greens are not that severe for normal play, only the US Open. Any course making their greens like that everyday will find their greens dying due to stress pretty quick, especially during the summer months. This scenario is strictly based on the OP's criteria, which in its own part is ludicrous. Can a scratch golfer break 85 at ANGC from members tees with a caddie? Absolutely, and quite possibly break 80 or even 78. Can a scratch golfer break 85 from the Masters tees under normal conditions with a caddie? I would say yes on occasion. Can a scratch golfer break 85 strictly under the original criteria? I don't believe they could.

[deadsolid...shank]

Is it possible?

 

Yes.

 

Even 90 percent of the people disagreeing have half said the same thing. "depends on the scratch" "only if he's a long hiter" etc.

 

Its possible though, most have admitted as much over the course of 880+ posts.

 

Its 85. Not 71. A scratch can smack his way around and make 12 bogeys or 14 bogeys and 3 birdies etc.

 

How many people are scratch playing a golf course in excess of 7,400 yards with undulating greens at least 14 on on the Stimpmeter? 10 foot putts with 5-6 feet of break. The reality is that most likely no scratch golfer plays in those conditions .... ever. Even Oakmont greens are not that severe for normal play, only the US Open. Any course making their greens like that everyday will find their greens dying due to stress pretty quick, especially during the summer months. This scenario is strictly based on the OP's criteria, which in its own part is ludicrous. Can a scratch golfer break 85 at ANGC from members tees with a caddie? Absolutely, and quite possibly break 80 or even 78. Can a scratch golfer break 85 from the Masters tees under normal conditions with a caddie? I would say yes on occasion. Can a scratch golfer break 85 strictly under the original criteria? I don't believe they could.

 

I don’t know if there is any truth to this or not, but I’ve always read that Oakmont actually slows their greens down for the open.

[LeoLeo99]

being a stats guy:

 

if you put 100 scratch golfers on Augusta, what would the score distribution look like?

 

Some would break 80 and some wouldnt break 90.

[RobotDoctor]

being a stats guy:

 

if you put 100 scratch golfers on Augusta, what would the score distribution look like?

 

Some would break 80 and some wouldnt break 90.

 

Based on Sunday Masters tournament conditions?

[cdnglf]

Is it possible?

 

Yes.

 

Even 90 percent of the people disagreeing have half said the same thing. "depends on the scratch" "only if he's a long hiter" etc.

 

Its possible though, most have admitted as much over the course of 880+ posts.

 

Its 85. Not 71. A scratch can smack his way around and make 12 bogeys or 14 bogeys and 3 birdies etc.

 

How many people are scratch playing a golf course in excess of 7,400 yards with undulating greens at least 14 on on the Stimpmeter? 10 foot putts with 5-6 feet of break. The reality is that most likely no scratch golfer plays in those conditions .... ever. Even Oakmont greens are not that severe for normal play, only the US Open. Any course making their greens like that everyday will find their greens dying due to stress pretty quick, especially during the summer months. This scenario is strictly based on the OP's criteria, which in its own part is ludicrous. Can a scratch golfer break 85 at ANGC from members tees with a caddie? Absolutely, and quite possibly break 80 or even 78. Can a scratch golfer break 85 from the Masters tees under normal conditions with a caddie? I would say yes on occasion. Can a scratch golfer break 85 strictly under the original criteria? I don't believe they could.

 

You do realize that the course rating system takes those factors into account, right? 7400 yards and fast greens is largely why Knuth estimated the rating at 78.1.

 

A rating of 78.1 means that a scratch player will shoot 78 on "a good day" (about 25% of the time), and his average score will be 81. On a very good day, he'll shoot a 76.

 

You and lowheel claim there is virtually no chance that a scratch player can break 85 under the OP's criteria. For that to be true, the "OP Criteria Course Rating" would have to be at least 86 - 8 strokes harder than Knuth's estimated rating. However, neither of you has put forward a credible explanation for that enormous gap.

 

Below are scoring averages for the last 2 years. Do you see any evidence that Sunday was significantly more difficult than Thursday?

The idea that the course is way harder Thursday morning than it was Wednesday afternoon makes no sense at all. Why would they have players practice under conditions radically different from what they would experience during the tournament?

 

 

2016:

Thursday average (including old champs and ams): 74

Thursday average of players who made the cut: 72.3

Sunday average: 72.7

 

2017:

Thursday average (including old champs and ams): 74.97

Thursday average of players who made the cut: 73.83

Sunday average: 71.86

[RobotDoctor]

Yes, I realize that. But I also know that Knuth's assessment is based in practice rounds outside he ropes. He did not walk the actual landing areas and roll putts on the greens. He's never had access on the playing surface yet he makes this assessment. While I understand he is an expert in gauging slope ratings how can he be 100% certain of his accuracy by simply observing? I'm not buying it.

[cdnglf]

Yes, I realize that. But I also know that Knuth's assessment is based in practice rounds outside he ropes. He did not walk the actual landing areas and roll putts on the greens. He's never had access on the playing surface yet he makes this assessment. While I understand he is an expert in gauging slope ratings how can he be 100% certain of his accuracy by simply observing? I'm not buying it.

 

But he doesn't have to be 100% certain. If he's off by 1 or even 2, so what? He could be off by 5, and you guys would still be wrong. Of course, he isn't off by 5 because he invented the system and has rated 1000 courses during his career. Also, 83 is an impossibly high rating... there isn't a course in the world higher than 80, afaik.

 

How many courses have you rated?