Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[lowheel]

Scott gregory, brad dalke, toto gana all +4s/+5 amateurs last year after multiple practice rounds and practice struggled to break 80 in their first 2 rounds. Some perspective is needed in here because of the scenario presented by the op.

On the other hand low am Stewart hagestad who played in the walker cup last year is a +5 and shot 2 over everyday. hes 6'5 and hits it plenty long.Great short game. thats the difficulty. you have to be blind to not see it

[lowheel]

Did you even read the rest of that?

 

Do you think I just made that up?

 

I just told you a buddy of mine did it as a 2 (and I "almost" did it as a 3) in horrible physical condition, and your response is "I'll take that bet."? FTR, my buddy even had to walk off into the woods mid-round to relieve himself -- and I mean RELIEVE himself. That's the condition we were in that morning.

 

It's a heavily played, USGA rated course and with a rating about 78/150. Does that just mean nothing to you? We could just start the thread over at Bethpage, but what do you think a 2 cap should shoot there?

 

I read your whole post. When you played Bethpage Black did you play from the US Open tees and at US Open conditions? If not then your comparison to Augusta National and Sunday Masters conditions is not relevant. It's apples and oranges. Simple as that. Let me ask you something something else. Have you ever been to the Masters? Answer me this.

 

https://www.golfdige...h-augusta-knuth

 

This guy has. Says the average score for a scratch is 81. What do you know that he doesn't?

 

Based on a tuesday wednesday round at augusta... youre smarter than this. yes sunday at augusta is way tougher than wednesday at augusta.

 

Here is a sample of elite players chipping and pitching that cant get inside 3-4 feet with any regularity but hey a scratch will have no problem 2 putting and chipping it close...

With the given scenario by the OP, do you believe its doable? I dont regardless of knuths rating

 

Where's the evidence that Sunday is way tougher? Makes no sense that the practice setup would be wildly different from the tournament setup. I can't find daily scoring averages, but I'd be surprised if the Thursday scoring average differed much from the Sunday one (especially if you adjust for the weaker players who don't make the cut). Indeed, conventional wisdom is that Sunday is actually a bit easier than Saturday - they pick easier pin placements to make for a more exciting finish.

 

Tiger and the others can't get inside 3-4 feet, yet they can put up scores in the mid-60s. Scratch doesn't have to 2 putt and chip it close on every hole to break 85.

 

Yes, I think the OP's scenario is easily achievable. I don't see any reason to disagree with Knuth's rating, and you have to disagree by a _lot_ for the scenario to not be achievable.

 

Stopped reading after this. I cant take that seriously. Its cool though carry on.

[cdnglf]

Where's the evidence that Sunday is way tougher? Makes no sense that the practice setup would be wildly different from the tournament setup. I can't find daily scoring averages, but I'd be surprised if the Thursday scoring average differed much from the Sunday one (especially if you adjust for the weaker players who don't make the cut). Indeed, conventional wisdom is that Sunday is actually a bit easier than Saturday - they pick easier pin placements to make for a more exciting finish.

 

Tiger and the others can't get inside 3-4 feet, yet they can put up scores in the mid-60s. Scratch doesn't have to 2 putt and chip it close on every hole to break 85.

 

Yes, I think the OP's scenario is easily achievable. I don't see any reason to disagree with Knuth's rating, and you have to disagree by a _lot_ for the scenario to not be achievable.

 

Stopped reading after this. I cant take that seriously. Its cool though carry on.

 

So you think they have all the players practice on Tuesday and Wednesday to familiarize themselves with the course, then Thursday morning they magically crank up the difficulty by a 5+ strokes? Ok...

[cdnglf]

Scott gregory, brad dalke, toto gana all +4s/+5 amateurs last year after multiple practice rounds and practice struggled to break 80 in their first 2 rounds. Some perspective is needed in here because of the scenario presented by the op.

On the other hand low am Stewart hagestad who played in the walker cup last year is a +5 and shot 2 over everyday. hes 6'5 and hits it plenty long.Great short game. thats the difficulty. you have to be blind to not see it

 

Cherrypicking. Nearly every year, one more ams posts a round of par or better.

[lowheel]

Where's the evidence that Sunday is way tougher? Makes no sense that the practice setup would be wildly different from the tournament setup. I can't find daily scoring averages, but I'd be surprised if the Thursday scoring average differed much from the Sunday one (especially if you adjust for the weaker players who don't make the cut). Indeed, conventional wisdom is that Sunday is actually a bit easier than Saturday - they pick easier pin placements to make for a more exciting finish.

 

Tiger and the others can't get inside 3-4 feet, yet they can put up scores in the mid-60s. Scratch doesn't have to 2 putt and chip it close on every hole to break 85.

 

Yes, I think the OP's scenario is easily achievable. I don't see any reason to disagree with Knuth's rating, and you have to disagree by a _lot_ for the scenario to not be achievable.

 

Stopped reading after this. I cant take that seriously. Its cool though carry on.

 

So you think they have all the players practice on Tuesday and Wednesday to familiarize themselves with the course, then Thursday morning they magically crank up the difficulty by a 5+ strokes? Ok...

 

Youve never been there so ill tell you that yes they geek up the greens overnight. Every green has an underground pump that dries out greens at their discretion. it can rain hard for 1 hour and the greens will still run at 14... theres also this thing called pressure it adds 4-5 shots easy to your score. i dont believe you want to have a serious discussion on this because youre obsessed with the rating. Its cool man i enjoy most of your posts but on this we'll just agree to disagree. if you cant see that in this scenario set out by the op its nearly impossible to get it done theres really nothing further to discuss.take care

[RobotDoctor]

Unless it rains the greens at the Masters get harder and a little faster each day. Some years the greens bake out a bit. Anyone who thinks a major doesn't get tougher from Thursday to Sunday must have been watching different major championships for the most part for the past 35 years he so. This is generally true for the Masters and the US Open as the courses have a tendency to become very tough as the weekend comes. The Open Championship is generally pretty steady in terms of condition (due to the weather). The PGA also gets tougher as the week progresses unless it rains.

[NoFancyUsername.]

Consider this... could Michelle Wie break 85 under stated conditions? I don't think so, and it would be harder for a scratch golfer.

 

Michelle plays brilliantly between Monday and Wednesday, so i'll take your bet if she plays those days.

[8thehardway]

Consider this... could Michelle Wie break 85 under stated conditions? I don't think so, and it would be harder for a scratch golfer.

 

Michelle plays brilliantly between Monday and Wednesday, so i'll take your bet if she plays those days.

 

Yeah, but at 1,000 yards longer than normal and greens that would overwhelm her putting? she'd be crying "Wei, Wei, Wei all the way home."

[RobotDoctor]

Consider this... could Michelle Wie break 85 under stated conditions? I don't think so, and it would be harder for a scratch golfer.

 

Michelle plays brilliantly between Monday and Wednesday, so i'll take your bet if she plays those days.

 

Yeah, but at 1,000 yards longer than normal and greens that would overwhelm her putting? she'd be crying "Wei, Wei, Wei all the way home."

 

:D

[Komarms]

Where's the evidence that Sunday is way tougher? Makes no sense that the practice setup would be wildly different from the tournament setup. I can't find daily scoring averages, but I'd be surprised if the Thursday scoring average differed much from the Sunday one (especially if you adjust for the weaker players who don't make the cut). Indeed, conventional wisdom is that Sunday is actually a bit easier than Saturday - they pick easier pin placements to make for a more exciting finish.

 

Tiger and the others can't get inside 3-4 feet, yet they can put up scores in the mid-60s. Scratch doesn't have to 2 putt and chip it close on every hole to break 85.

 

Yes, I think the OP's scenario is easily achievable. I don't see any reason to disagree with Knuth's rating, and you have to disagree by a _lot_ for the scenario to not be achievable.

 

Stopped reading after this. I cant take that seriously. Its cool though carry on.

 

So you think they have all the players practice on Tuesday and Wednesday to familiarize themselves with the course, then Thursday morning they magically crank up the difficulty by a 5+ strokes? Ok...

 

Youve never been there so ill tell you that yes they geek up the greens overnight. Every green has an underground pump that dries out greens at their discretion. it can rain hard for 1 hour and the greens will still run at 14... theres also this thing called pressure it adds 4-5 shots easy to your score. i dont believe you want to have a serious discussion on this because youre obsessed with the rating. Its cool man i enjoy most of your posts but on this we'll just agree to disagree. if you cant see that in this scenario set out by the op its nearly impossible to get it done theres really nothing further to discuss.take care

 

I agree that the pressure adds 4-5 shots to your score, just being in the field would be tough enough. The thing is, it’s not like this so called “scratch” player would be in the field therefore that 4-5 strokes isn’t there. There were no stipulations as to who they’d be playing with which makes a huge difference. Great ams and even great pros come to Augusta for the first time and the tournament atmosphere overwhelms them.. how can it not. Everyone that has been there knows the feeling and the sounds you hear. But without the crowds and pressure of legitimately being in the tournament that should equal a few less strokes. The ams you mentioned earlier who are world class would shoot much lower scores under these circumstances.

[isaacbm]

Where's the evidence that Sunday is way tougher? Makes no sense that the practice setup would be wildly different from the tournament setup. I can't find daily scoring averages, but I'd be surprised if the Thursday scoring average differed much from the Sunday one (especially if you adjust for the weaker players who don't make the cut). Indeed, conventional wisdom is that Sunday is actually a bit easier than Saturday - they pick easier pin placements to make for a more exciting finish.

 

Tiger and the others can't get inside 3-4 feet, yet they can put up scores in the mid-60s. Scratch doesn't have to 2 putt and chip it close on every hole to break 85.

 

Yes, I think the OP's scenario is easily achievable. I don't see any reason to disagree with Knuth's rating, and you have to disagree by a _lot_ for the scenario to not be achievable.

 

Stopped reading after this. I cant take that seriously. Its cool though carry on.

 

So you think they have all the players practice on Tuesday and Wednesday to familiarize themselves with the course, then Thursday morning they magically crank up the difficulty by a 5+ strokes? Ok...

 

Youve never been there so ill tell you that yes they geek up the greens overnight. Every green has an underground pump that dries out greens at their discretion. it can rain hard for 1 hour and the greens will still run at 14... theres also this thing called pressure it adds 4-5 shots easy to your score. i dont believe you want to have a serious discussion on this because youre obsessed with the rating. Its cool man i enjoy most of your posts but on this we'll just agree to disagree. if you cant see that in this scenario set out by the op its nearly impossible to get it done theres really nothing further to discuss.take care

 

So you say it’s nearly impossible and I say it’s very probable. Let me ask you this question: if there was some kind of outing the day after the Masters with 100 scratch golfers Following the OP’s original premise, how many do you think will break 85, how many do you think would shoot 85 to 90 and how many do you think would shoot Over 90?

 

For you to say that it’s nearly impossible, does that mean you think maybe one in 100 would do it?

 

I say 40 to 50 guys break 85, 40 to 50 guys shoot between 85 and 92 and maybe 10 guys shoot over 92.

 

 

[scratchswinger]

Where's the evidence that Sunday is way tougher? Makes no sense that the practice setup would be wildly different from the tournament setup. I can't find daily scoring averages, but I'd be surprised if the Thursday scoring average differed much from the Sunday one (especially if you adjust for the weaker players who don't make the cut). Indeed, conventional wisdom is that Sunday is actually a bit easier than Saturday - they pick easier pin placements to make for a more exciting finish.

 

Tiger and the others can't get inside 3-4 feet, yet they can put up scores in the mid-60s. Scratch doesn't have to 2 putt and chip it close on every hole to break 85.

 

Yes, I think the OP's scenario is easily achievable. I don't see any reason to disagree with Knuth's rating, and you have to disagree by a _lot_ for the scenario to not be achievable.

 

Stopped reading after this. I cant take that seriously. Its cool though carry on.

 

So you think they have all the players practice on Tuesday and Wednesday to familiarize themselves with the course, then Thursday morning they magically crank up the difficulty by a 5+ strokes? Ok...

 

Youve never been there so ill tell you that yes they geek up the greens overnight. Every green has an underground pump that dries out greens at their discretion. it can rain hard for 1 hour and the greens will still run at 14... theres also this thing called pressure it adds 4-5 shots easy to your score. i dont believe you want to have a serious discussion on this because youre obsessed with the rating. Its cool man i enjoy most of your posts but on this we'll just agree to disagree. if you cant see that in this scenario set out by the op its nearly impossible to get it done theres really nothing further to discuss.take care

 

So you say it’s nearly impossible and I say it’s very probable. Let me ask you this question: if there was some kind of outing the day after the Masters with 100 scratch golfers Following the OP’s original premise, how many do you think will break 85, how many do you think would shoot 85 to 90 and how many do you think would shoot Over 90?

 

For you to say that it’s nearly impossible, does that mean you think maybe one in 100 would do it?

 

I say 40 to 50 guys break 85, 40 to 50 guys shoot between 85 and 92 and maybe 10 guys shoot over 92.

 

I think more than 10 shoot over 92.... I would say more like 25 guys break 85 and maybe 10 break 80. Their are a lot of scratch players that get to 0 from playing dog tracks and knowing courses well. Playing greens this quick and with green complexes this complicated can really mess with peoples games... I mean I could easily see three doubles and a snow man on most cards and maybe one birdie. That's +7 in 4 holes.

 

If you put 100 scratch names into a hat and pulled out two random names I would gladly bet a large amount of money that they are not breaking 85. I am also considering no caddie to help. Bu your numbers 1 of those two should break 85.

[isaacbm]

Scratch

 

Fair enough. You might be right. I just think that to come on and say that a legitimate scratch golfer ( not a vanity cap) has absolutely zero chance whatsoever of shooting seven or eight shots OVER his handicap is a pretty big stretch. I’m not saying it’s a guaranteed not by a long shot, but to say there’s zero chance?

 

I honestly can’t think of the last time I had a round where I shot 10 over my handicap in a tournament. It might’ve been 20 years ago. Most good tournament scratch golfers have a range of about eight shots in any given season. Meaning they shoot somewhere between two or three under their handicap and five or six over there handicap literally every single day of the year.

To Definitively say that they have “no chance “ whatsoever? Just seems like a stretch to me.

[Shilgy]

Scratch

 

Fair enough. You might be right. I just think that to come on and say that a legitimate scratch golfer ( not a vanity cap) has absolutely zero chance whatsoever of shooting seven or eight shots OVER his handicap is a pretty big stretch. I’m not saying it’s a guaranteed not by a long shot, but to say there’s zero chance?

 

I honestly can’t think of the last time I had a round where I shot 10 over my handicap in a tournament. It might’ve been 20 years ago. Most good tournament scratch golfers have a range of about eight shots in any given season. Meaning they shoot somewhere between two or three under their handicap and five or six over there handicap literally every single day of the year.

To Definitively say that they have “no chance “ whatsoever? Just seems like a stretch to me.

100% agree. The same guys that think Wie would have no chance are not thinking clearly. She averaged under 70.5 on the ladies tour. Augusta adds over 14 shots a round to a pro? No way.

Conversations like this get very silly. Must be cold where some of y'all are living.

[lowheel]

Where's the evidence that Sunday is way tougher? Makes no sense that the practice setup would be wildly different from the tournament setup. I can't find daily scoring averages, but I'd be surprised if the Thursday scoring average differed much from the Sunday one (especially if you adjust for the weaker players who don't make the cut). Indeed, conventional wisdom is that Sunday is actually a bit easier than Saturday - they pick easier pin placements to make for a more exciting finish.

 

Tiger and the others can't get inside 3-4 feet, yet they can put up scores in the mid-60s. Scratch doesn't have to 2 putt and chip it close on every hole to break 85.

 

Yes, I think the OP's scenario is easily achievable. I don't see any reason to disagree with Knuth's rating, and you have to disagree by a _lot_ for the scenario to not be achievable.

 

Stopped reading after this. I cant take that seriously. Its cool though carry on.

 

So you think they have all the players practice on Tuesday and Wednesday to familiarize themselves with the course, then Thursday morning they magically crank up the difficulty by a 5+ strokes? Ok...

 

Youve never been there so ill tell you that yes they geek up the greens overnight. Every green has an underground pump that dries out greens at their discretion. it can rain hard for 1 hour and the greens will still run at 14... theres also this thing called pressure it adds 4-5 shots easy to your score. i dont believe you want to have a serious discussion on this because youre obsessed with the rating. Its cool man i enjoy most of your posts but on this we'll just agree to disagree. if you cant see that in this scenario set out by the op its nearly impossible to get it done theres really nothing further to discuss.take care

 

So you say it’s nearly impossible and I say it’s very probable. Let me ask you this question: if there was some kind of outing the day after the Masters with 100 scratch golfers Following the OP’s original premise, how many do you think will break 85, how many do you think would shoot 85 to 90 and how many do you think would shoot Over 90?

 

For you to say that it’s nearly impossible, does that mean you think maybe one in 100 would do it?

 

I say 40 to 50 guys break 85, 40 to 50 guys shoot between 85 and 92 and maybe 10 guys shoot over 92.

 

Yes near impossible in the given scenario by the op. Read it again because it seems to me you didn’t read it at all. If you think half of them do it well then that’s all I need to hear and clearly don’t understand the complexity of Augusta’s unique difficulty.

[lowheel]

Scratch

 

Fair enough. You might be right. I just think that to come on and say that a legitimate scratch golfer ( not a vanity cap) has absolutely zero chance whatsoever of shooting seven or eight shots OVER his handicap is a pretty big stretch. I’m not saying it’s a guaranteed not by a long shot, but to say there’s zero chance?

 

I honestly can’t think of the last time I had a round where I shot 10 over my handicap in a tournament. It might’ve been 20 years ago. Most good tournament scratch golfers have a range of about eight shots in any given season. Meaning they shoot somewhere between two or three under their handicap and five or six over there handicap literally every single day of the year.

To Definitively say that they have “no chance “ whatsoever? Just seems like a stretch to me.

 

How many play major venues 700-800 yards longer then their normal venues with 14 greens that slope like rollercoasters? This isn’t your local track or some muni. Those #s you quote don’t even apply here. Think outside the box a little.

 

Shooting 10 over your cap happens all the time on tour during majors.

 

Last weeks winner Gary woodland shot 75-80 in last years masters.

Henrik Stenson shot 77-75

Tommy Fleetwood 78-75

Bubba Watson 74-78

Webb Simpson 75-77

Zach Johnson 77-74

Patrick reed 76-77

Angel Cabrera 79-75

Vijay Singh 78-75

 

 

These aren’t cherry picked it’s just a sample of all ages and calibres of tour pros to show you the difficult task the scratch would have. These guys have played Augusta a ton of times with plenty of practice rounds and are +6+7s élite pga tour players and still shoot those #s. Some of them have won there...

 

But a scratch walks in there in the scenario presented by the op and breaks 85 half the time? Seriously?

[bscinstnct]

I originally made this post yesterday in a reply to Isaac, got no replies, thought I'd try it again since we can actually quantify how good ams play on an actual Master's set up and then compare to other scratch ams.

 

Part of my post>

 

"Hey, do you think you and the tournament scratches you play with are as good or even better than the amateurs who play in the Master's?

 

I just looked at the am scoring for the past few years and, on quick review, looks like scores average in the high 70s. You see guys who will shoot rounds over 80 but didn't see any over 85. And they get some low rounds in there too."

[fairways4life]

I think if you took a field of 100 scratch players and had them play it under the OP's criteria, some of them would break 85 and some would not. A few might even break 80 and a few might not break 90. Look at any tournament -- amateur or pro -- and look at how wildly the scores deviate from top to bottom.

 

It's inevitable that a handful of guys will have a good ball striking day, stay out of trouble and roll in a few putts and post a nice score as a result.

 

It's equally inevitable that a few guys will spend the day fighting their swing, play out of the pines all day and piss themselves on those greens and have a not-so-proud score to show for it.

 

If I had to bet money on one guy doing it, I would probably bet on the "over." But that doesn't mean it can't or won't happen.

[lowheel]

I originally made this post yesterday in a reply to Isaac, got no replies, thought I'd try it again since we can actually quantify how good ams play on an actual Master's set up and then compare to other scratch ams.

 

Part of my post>

 

"Hey, do you think you and the tournament scratches you play with are as good or even better than the amateurs who play in the Master's?

 

I just looked at the am scoring for the past few years and, on quick review, looks like scores average in the high 70s. You see guys who will shoot rounds over 80 but didn't see any over 85. And they get some low rounds in there too."

 

Exactly. They have the benefit of 2 weeks of practice and still can’t get the average score below 76-77. Sure there are outliers but these guys are +4s minimum and tournament tested... think about that

[RobotDoctor]

Scratch

 

Fair enough. You might be right. I just think that to come on and say that a legitimate scratch golfer ( not a vanity cap) has absolutely zero chance whatsoever of shooting seven or eight shots OVER his handicap is a pretty big stretch. I’m not saying it’s a guaranteed not by a long shot, but to say there’s zero chance?

 

I honestly can’t think of the last time I had a round where I shot 10 over my handicap in a tournament. It might’ve been 20 years ago. Most good tournament scratch golfers have a range of about eight shots in any given season. Meaning they shoot somewhere between two or three under their handicap and five or six over there handicap literally every single day of the year.

To Definitively say that they have “no chance “ whatsoever? Just seems like a stretch to me.

 

How many play major venues 700-800 yards longer then their normal venues with 14 greens that slope like rollercoasters? This isn’t your local track or some muni. Those #s you quote don’t even apply here. Think outside the box a little.

 

Shooting 10 over your cap happens all the time on tour during majors.

 

Last weeks winner Gary woodland shot 75-80 in last years masters.

Henrik Stenson shot 77-75

Tommy Fleetwood 78-75

Bubba Watson 74-78

Webb Simpson 75-77

Zach Johnson 77-74

Patrick reed 76-77

Angel Cabrera 79-75

Vijay Singh 78-75

 

 

These aren’t cherry picked it’s just a sample of all ages and calibres of tour pros to show you the difficult task the scratch would have. These guys have played Augusta a ton of times with plenty of practice rounds and are +6+7s élite pga tour players and still shoot those #s. Some of them have won there...

 

But a scratch walks in there in the scenario presented by the op and breaks 85 half the time? Seriously?

 

Quite possibly the most realistic statistical post in this entire thread. How may scratch golfers think they're within 5 strokes of some of the best golfers on the planet? Come on people.

[Bye]

I originally made this post yesterday in a reply to Isaac, got no replies, thought I'd try it again since we can actually quantify how good ams play on an actual Master's set up and then compare to other scratch ams.

 

Part of my post>

 

"Hey, do you think you and the tournament scratches you play with are as good or even better than the amateurs who play in the Master's?

 

I just looked at the am scoring for the past few years and, on quick review, looks like scores average in the high 70s. You see guys who will shoot rounds over 80 but didn't see any over 85. And they get some low rounds in there too."

 

Exactly. They have the benefit of 2 weeks of practice and still can’t get the average score below 76-77. Sure there are outliers but these guys are +4s minimum and tournament tested... think about that

 

When you just take the first round, the amateurs that play average nearer 78. As you say with practice etc.

 

20% of the field will shoot in the 80's at some point during the event.

 

People also forget that the fairways are mown back towards the tee which is why the driving averages are 20 yards shorter than a normal event.

 

Out of 100 guys, zero break 80, maybe 1 or 2 break 85 and then it's a 70/30 spilt breaking 90.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hattie Pants]

Scratch

 

Fair enough. You might be right. I just think that to come on and say that a legitimate scratch golfer ( not a vanity cap) has absolutely zero chance whatsoever of shooting seven or eight shots OVER his handicap is a pretty big stretch. I’m not saying it’s a guaranteed not by a long shot, but to say there’s zero chance?

 

I honestly can’t think of the last time I had a round where I shot 10 over my handicap in a tournament. It might’ve been 20 years ago. Most good tournament scratch golfers have a range of about eight shots in any given season. Meaning they shoot somewhere between two or three under their handicap and five or six over there handicap literally every single day of the year.

To Definitively say that they have “no chance “ whatsoever? Just seems like a stretch to me.

 

How many play major venues 700-800 yards longer then their normal venues with 14 greens that slope like rollercoasters? This isn’t your local track or some muni. Those #s you quote don’t even apply here. Think outside the box a little.

 

Shooting 10 over your cap happens all the time on tour during majors.

 

Last weeks winner Gary woodland shot 75-80 in last years masters.

Henrik Stenson shot 77-75

Tommy Fleetwood 78-75

Bubba Watson 74-78

Webb Simpson 75-77

Zach Johnson 77-74

Patrick reed 76-77

Angel Cabrera 79-75

Vijay Singh 78-75

 

 

These aren’t cherry picked it’s just a sample of all ages and calibres of tour pros to show you the difficult task the scratch would have. These guys have played Augusta a ton of times with plenty of practice rounds and are +6+7s élite pga tour players and still shoot those #s. Some of them have won there...

 

But a scratch walks in there in the scenario presented by the op and breaks 85 half the time? Seriously?

 

Quite possibly the most realistic statistical post in this entire thread. How may scratch golfers think they're within 5 strokes of some of the best golfers on the planet? Come on people.

 

This is the best slant your stats to support your argument thread ever. Gold! The point above for instance just "cherry picks" the instances in which a pro golfer had a bad tournament. Literally has nothing to do with "do we think a scratch is within 5 of Gary Woodland", the question is COULD a scratch break 85 at Augusta. The answer is logically, statistically, completely YES. They COULD.

[isaacbm]

Scratch

 

Fair enough. You might be right. I just think that to come on and say that a legitimate scratch golfer ( not a vanity cap) has absolutely zero chance whatsoever of shooting seven or eight shots OVER his handicap is a pretty big stretch. I’m not saying it’s a guaranteed not by a long shot, but to say there’s zero chance?

 

I honestly can’t think of the last time I had a round where I shot 10 over my handicap in a tournament. It might’ve been 20 years ago. Most good tournament scratch golfers have a range of about eight shots in any given season. Meaning they shoot somewhere between two or three under their handicap and five or six over there handicap literally every single day of the year.

To Definitively say that they have “no chance “ whatsoever? Just seems like a stretch to me.

 

How many play major venues 700-800 yards longer then their normal venues with 14 greens that slope like rollercoasters? This isn’t your local track or some muni. Those #s you quote don’t even apply here. Think outside the box a little.

 

Shooting 10 over your cap happens all the time on tour during majors.

 

Last weeks winner Gary woodland shot 75-80 in last years masters.

Henrik Stenson shot 77-75

Tommy Fleetwood 78-75

Bubba Watson 74-78

Webb Simpson 75-77

Zach Johnson 77-74

Patrick reed 76-77

Angel Cabrera 79-75

Vijay Singh 78-75

 

 

These aren’t cherry picked it’s just a sample of all ages and calibres of tour pros to show you the difficult task the scratch would have. These guys have played Augusta a ton of times with plenty of practice rounds and are +6+7s élite pga tour players and still shoot those #s. Some of them have won there...

 

But a scratch walks in there in the scenario presented by the op and breaks 85 half the time? Seriously?

 

This is quite possibly the worst example of statistics I’ve ever seen posted on the site. You quite literally take the absolute worst scores that a tour pro shoots at the high end of his range and asked me if I think a scratch golfer Can compare to them.

If a tour pro has a handicap of approximately +6 and his range is approximately seven or eight shots, then his high end scores are not that far off of the low-end of a scratch.

 

Don’t read that that I’m saying a scratch at his best is on par with the most elite players in the world. I’m not saying that at all. I’m simply saying that if A scratch plays well, he can be with in eight shots of a tour players worst round.

 

What you’re doing in this thread is simply saying “I feel this is the way it is therefore it must be so.”

 

Then you try to use completely cherry picked statistics to point out how difficult the course is.

 

I’m not using cherry pick statistics. I’m saying over the course of hundreds of thousands of rounds played around the world people have a handicap it is determined. Their handicapped is determined by what they actually shoot. Not by what they think they will shoot. Zero handicap is zero handicap because he has a certain ability to shoot a score on any golf course based on its difficulty rating. You’re saying that the guy who created the method that determines how golf courses difficulties are measured is basically wrong by 7 shots.

 

If you said he was wrong by one shot or two shots I might accept it but you’re saying that the guy who does nothing but this very thing for a living for the last 35 years is wrong by almost 150%. He’s saying the course rating is six over par and you’re saying the course rating is 13 or 14 over par.

 

And yes I’ve read the OP’s original premise.

 

[Bye]

http://golfweek.com/2017/04/04/geoff-ogilvy-talks-about-putting-on-augusta-nationals-famous-greens/

 

Some perspective on the greens.

[isaacbm]

I originally made this post yesterday in a reply to Isaac, got no replies, thought I'd try it again since we can actually quantify how good ams play on an actual Master's set up and then compare to other scratch ams.

 

Part of my post>

 

"Hey, do you think you and the tournament scratches you play with are as good or even better than the amateurs who play in the Master's?

 

I just looked at the am scoring for the past few years and, on quick review, looks like scores average in the high 70s. You see guys who will shoot rounds over 80 but didn't see any over 85. And they get some low rounds in there too."

 

Of course I don’t think a scratch is better than a +5. But you just said that many of the + fives average under 80. And that is during the actual competition with all of the pressure of actually playing in the masters in front of a crowd. I’m simply saying that I think it is possible that a scratch golfer can shoot 8 OVER his handicap

 

If you cite a +6 handicap golfer shooting Only two over his own handicap as an example of him playing bad, why can’t you accept that a zero handicap golfer can possibly shoot 8 over his handicap when playing well?

 

Again, I’m not saying every guy will do it. I’m saying I think that there’s a very high likelihood that it’s possible.

[bscinstnct]

I originally made this post yesterday in a reply to Isaac, got no replies, thought I'd try it again since we can actually quantify how good ams play on an actual Master's set up and then compare to other scratch ams.

 

Part of my post>

 

"Hey, do you think you and the tournament scratches you play with are as good or even better than the amateurs who play in the Master's?

 

I just looked at the am scoring for the past few years and, on quick review, looks like scores average in the high 70s. You see guys who will shoot rounds over 80 but didn't see any over 85. And they get some low rounds in there too."

 

Of course I don’t think a scratch is better than a +5. But you just said that many of the + fives average under 80. And that is during the actual competition with all of the pressure of actually playing in the masters in front of a crowd. I’m simply saying that I think it is possible that a scratch golfer can shoot 8 OVER his handicap

 

If you cite a +6 handicap golfer shooting Only two over his own handicap as an example of him playing bad, why can’t you accept that a zero handicap golfer can possibly shoot 8 over his handicap when playing well?

 

Again, I’m not saying every guy will do it. I’m saying I think that there’s a very high likelihood that it’s possible.

 

Yeah, didn't mean my note to come across in an accusatory manner. I was honestly asking if you/the guys you play with are around as good as the ams at the Masters. You're a +3 so I can see how you'd most likely be able to do it. Seems like a "tournament scratch" would have a good shot but it would be close/right around the line.

[isaacbm]

I originally made this post yesterday in a reply to Isaac, got no replies, thought I'd try it again since we can actually quantify how good ams play on an actual Master's set up and then compare to other scratch ams.

 

Part of my post>

 

"Hey, do you think you and the tournament scratches you play with are as good or even better than the amateurs who play in the Master's?

 

I just looked at the am scoring for the past few years and, on quick review, looks like scores average in the high 70s. You see guys who will shoot rounds over 80 but didn't see any over 85. And they get some low rounds in there too."

 

Of course I don’t think a scratch is better than a +5. But you just said that many of the + fives average under 80. And that is during the actual competition with all of the pressure of actually playing in the masters in front of a crowd. I’m simply saying that I think it is possible that a scratch golfer can shoot 8 OVER his handicap

 

If you cite a +6 handicap golfer shooting Only two over his own handicap as an example of him playing bad, why can’t you accept that a zero handicap golfer can possibly shoot 8 over his handicap when playing well?

 

Again, I’m not saying every guy will do it. I’m saying I think that there’s a very high likelihood that it’s possible.

 

Yeah, didn't mean my note to come across in an accusatory manner. I was honestly asking if you/the guys you play with are around as good as the ams at the Masters. You're a +3 so I can see how you'd most likely be able to do it. Seems like a "tournament scratch" would have a good shot but it would be close/right around the line.

my tournament handicap was +1.7 last season so I’m probably 4-5 shots worse than the amateurs that qualify for the Masters.

[isaacbm]

These topics always get me going. Not my intention to offend anyone !

 

Usually I’m on the other side of the fence where some three handicap is talking about how easy it is to get on tour!

[Bye]

 

 

http://www.golf-monthly.co.uk/tour/us-masters/augusta-blog/127020-127020

 

So the unofficial course rating of 78.1, taken from behind the ropes over watching 3 practice rounds. Greens estimated at 12 on the stimp.

 

The people that did it say they could peak at 15 which they probably will on Sunday.

 

Mark Brodie estimates its 3-6 shots harder on someone's first go there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[isaacbm]

 

 

http://www.golf-monthly.co.uk/tour/us-masters/augusta-blog/127020-127020

 

So the unofficial course rating of 78.1, taken from behind the ropes over watching 3 practice rounds. Greens estimated at 12 on the stimp.

 

The people that did it say they could peak at 15 which they probably will on Sunday.

 

Mark Brodie estimates its 3-6 shots harder on someone's first go there.

3-6 sounds about right which is why I am saying somewhere between 81 and 85 seems reasonable. Not as an automatic but certainly as a possibility.