Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[MtlJeff]

I figured this would be a appropriate bump of this thread. Harry Ellis, winner of The Amateur Championship, posted an 86 today.

 

well sure, but is he a "true" scratch?

[straightshot7]

I figured this would be a appropriate bump of this thread. Harry Ellis, winner of The Amateur Championship, posted an 86 today.

 

Yeah but has he won his Club Championship?

[lowheel]

I figured this would be a appropriate bump of this thread. Harry Ellis, winner of The Amateur Championship, posted an 86 today.

 

well sure, but is he a "true" scratch?

 

hes like a +3.5... which tells you alot about the cocky people in this thread

[MtlJeff]

I figured this would be a appropriate bump of this thread. Harry Ellis, winner of The Amateur Championship, posted an 86 today.

 

well sure, but is he a "true" scratch?

 

hes like a +3.5... which tells you alot about the cocky people in this thread

 

Well, one thing that we can all agree on is that one individual round by one player should answer this question definitively

[Roadking2003]

I figured this would be a appropriate bump of this thread. Harry Ellis, winner of The Amateur Championship, posted an 86 today.

 

well sure, but is he a "true" scratch?

 

hes like a +3.5... which tells you alot about the cocky people in this thread

 

Well, one thing that we can all agree on is that one individual round by one player should answer this question definitively

 

True. But he is way beyond "one player". He is way better than scratch and he probably had an experienced caddie.

[Dr. Block]

I posted this earlier in this thread, guess I’ll post it again. A member from my club ( a 5 cap) played there from the members tees a few years ago and shot 78. Said the beauty of the course and the moment brought out the best in his game, and he also said he had the best lag putting round of his life.

[MtlJeff]

I figured this would be a appropriate bump of this thread. Harry Ellis, winner of The Amateur Championship, posted an 86 today.

 

well sure, but is he a "true" scratch?

 

hes like a +3.5... which tells you alot about the cocky people in this thread

 

Well, one thing that we can all agree on is that one individual round by one player should answer this question definitively

 

True. But he is way beyond "one player". He is way better than scratch and he probably had an experienced caddie.

 

That's why i said what i did. I totally agree with you. No good player has ever had a bad round.

[lowheel]

not to mention the #1 and #2 amateurs in the world ( who are +4s) shot 76s... with a ton of practice rounds and practice on the grounds for the last 2 weeks to get used to the speed...

mid am champ shot 81...

[deadsolid...shank]

not to mention the #1 and #2 amateurs in the world ( who are +4s) shot 76s... with a ton of practice rounds and practice on the grounds for the last 2 weeks to get used to the speed...

mid am champ shot 81...

 

So you're saying there's a chance!?

[Macklessdaddy]

plain and simple,some days he could and some days he couldn't.

[RobotDoctor]

Also keep in mind the original criteria, as ridiculous as it is. The amateurs playing in the 2018 Masters tournament have played the course multiple times from the Masters tournament tees. Any comparison of anyone's "friends" who have played from member's tees and shot in the upper 70s is irrelevant. Sunday Masters tournament conditions from Masters tournament tees, no caddie, 1 hour warm up, and no prior access to ANGC. When tournament plus handicap golfers score in the mid/upper 70s to mid 80s on Thursday with practice rounds and caddies I would think that it would be impossible for some mere scratch golfer would break 85 under the criteria. No need for tournament experience as this wasn't in the criteria.

 

Hopefully this thread will find it's way into the archives.

 

[Golfjack]

Right cuz those top amateurs, mid am champs etc are just what we would call scratch golfers. Are we just lumping in all top amateurs into this conversation?

 

From the members tees, hundred percent scratch guys have a chance. It's only like 6300 yards. Adding a thousand yards to PGA tour lengths it'll probably take a career round. Unless they are used to playing to such lengths.

 

And to put things in perspective, first round, 25 of the 87 pros shot over 75. One pro even shot an 86. Lin Yuxin (one of the top Asian Ams) shot 79. Matt Firefighter Parziale shot 81. And you expect any random scratch guy from your local course could break 85? I think it's a 90 pct chance they will shoot 90 to low 90's. Joaquinn Niemann and Doc Redman, two of the top amateurs (Niemann actually the top, Redman just hot) shot 76s. Those guys are basically pro's and will probably be real good ones.

 

On a par 3 course, the gap is much smaller between scratch and pro. On a PGA Augusta setup, the gap is rather large, as in maybe 20 strokes large.

[cdnglf]

Right cuz those top amateurs, mid am champs etc are just what we would call scratch golfers. Are we just lumping in all top amateurs into this conversation?

 

From the members tees, hundred percent scratch guys have a chance. It's only like 6300 yards. Adding a thousand yards to PGA tour lengths it'll probably take a career round. Unless they are used to playing to such lengths.

 

And to put things in perspective, first round, 25 of the 87 pros shot over 75. One pro even shot an 86. Lin Yuxin (one of the top Asian Ams) shot 79. Matt Firefighter Parziale shot 81. And you expect any random scratch guy from your local course could break 85? I think it's a 90 pct chance they will shoot 90 to low 90's. Joaquinn Niemann and Doc Redman, two of the top amateurs (Niemann actually the top, Redman just hot) shot 76s. Those guys are basically pro's and will probably be real good ones.

 

On a par 3 course, the gap is much smaller between scratch and pro. On a PGA Augusta setup, the gap is rather large, as in maybe 20 strokes large.

 

LOL. Nope. Not even close.

[Bingo1976]

Today was not a day for low scores - the pins were tucked up tighter than a transexuals wedding tackle. The Sunday pins would be more accessible, but for sure the amateurs have not acquitted themselves well on Day 1. I still think 85 is doable, but probably a 10% chance given the stipulated conditions.

[jmvargas]

i've said this before...my friend Luis "Golem" Silverio won our national open in 1965 and was invited to the 1965 Masters..

 

he was a true scratch player at that time with an official +1 hdcp at his home course..he was also the most bemedaled amateur of all time in our country..

 

based on our conversation when he came back from that stint he told me that in his first practice round he hit all 18 greens in regulation and shot 79..

 

he also mentioned the unbelievable contours of the greens at that time and said that it looked like they buried an elephant in the 14th green..

 

he made the cut that year and the next..

 

so the answer is YES.

[Mcgeeno]

4 AMs broke 80 and 1 shot above 85.

 

Of course its possible.

[playa]

i've said this before...my friend Luis "Golem" Silverio won our national open in 1965 and was invited to the 1965 Masters..

 

he was a true scratch player at that time with an official +1 hdcp at his home course..he was also the most bemedaled amateur of all time in our country..

 

based on our conversation when he came back from that stint he told me that in his first practice round he hit all 18 greens in regulation and shot 79..

 

he also mentioned the unbelievable contours of the greens at that time and said that it looked like they buried an elephant in the 14th green..

 

he made the cut that year and the next..

 

so the answer is YES.

So how exactly did AGNC play like in 1965?

Your example is not relevant to the question.

[Schley]

Yes no doubt. What I would add is that it depends on the field average. I look at historical cut information to give us a clue as which years the course plays easier in the first 2 rounds. It can be as low as 145 to a high of 154. Also looking at the cumulative stats 1992 was the easiest tournament scoring average (Freddie's year) at 71.9 for the entire field. Whereas in 1956 it played 77.2, Thus 5.3 stokes difference. If a scratch golfer plays it in an easier year (weather wise) then yes I'd say he has a very good chance to break 85.

[Golfjack]

Did some reading and I don't think scratch golfers technically includes the plus handicaps. Scratch golfers will shoot the course rating on handicap average, not below it. And most of the amateurs we see in Augusta are actually plus handicaps not scratch. Doc Redman, for example, you can see his tournament rounds and he's consistently shooting under par (except for a blowup here and here), so regardless of the course rating, he's clearly a plus handicap not scratch. To think these guys are so good yet still not as good as a pro? Wow. Anyway I guess this goes for any sport though. Kinda imagine college players versus NBA players. There are an elite few with true game that can excel first year in, but most need a few years to reach their peak.

[tiderider]

a TRUE scratch golfer might ... shooting a legit 70 on the weekend with your bros at 6800 yards does not a TRUE, tournament scratch golfer make ...

[elwhippy]

I used to think yes. But the best amateurs in the field are full time players (apart from the fire fighter...huge respect for him) and are off plus 5 or more and used to 7000 plus yard venues. My club's scratch players have jobs, families and Golf is their hobby. Some only carry it about 240 yards and are used to hitting long irons and hybrids into long par 4s. Add in our greens are pretty flat and rarely get above 10 on the stimp meter. Their short games are excellent but I could not see any of them breaking 90 on this week's set up. Mowing the fairways towards the tees would kill them off the tee and then mean too low flighted approach shots. Could be a bloodbath.

[Roadking2003]

Right cuz those top amateurs, mid am champs etc are just what we would call scratch golfers. Are we just lumping in all top amateurs into this conversation?

 

Those golfers are a lot better than scratch.

 

From the members tees, hundred percent scratch guys have a chance. It's only like 6300 yards. Adding a thousand yards to PGA tour lengths it'll probably take a career round. Unless they are used to playing to such lengths.

 

Members tees are 6365. I was a 9.6 index when I played and shot 86. But the course I played has no resemblence to the Masters tournament. 1000 yards shorter and greens running about 9 or 10 rather than 12 or more.

[Roadking2003]

Did some reading and I don't think scratch golfers technically includes the plus handicaps. Scratch golfers will shoot the course rating on handicap average, not below it.

 

Not even that. Scratch means the average of the ten lowest of your last 20 rounds equal the course rating.

[jslane57]

Did some reading and I don't think scratch golfers technically includes the plus handicaps. Scratch golfers will shoot the course rating on handicap average, not below it.

 

Not even that. Scratch means the average of the ten lowest of your last 20 rounds equal the course rating.

Yup, it's a potential. A scratch golfer does have the potential to break 85 at Augusta. Sergio has the potential to make a 3 on hole 15.

[Jskiser]

A friend of mine played there earlier this year. He shot 88. He’s about a 10-11. Granted it wasn’t tournament conditions. He said the greens were still slick.

[needfasp3ed]

The best amateurs in the world shoot high 70's/low 80's and Jim from accounting thinks he can break 80 or 85 in tournament conditions? I couldn't withdraw enough money from the ATM to bet against that.

[SOONERMAGIC]

The best amateurs in the world shoot high 70's/low 80's and Jim from accounting thinks he can break 80 or 85 in tournament conditions? I couldn't withdraw enough money from the ATM to bet against that.

 

But, Jim from Accounting played on the Mexican Mini-Tour and won the Yucatan Masters while fighting Chikungunya back in 2013.

[cdnglf]

The best amateurs in the world shoot high 70's/low 80's and Jim from accounting thinks he can break 80 or 85 in tournament conditions? I couldn't withdraw enough money from the ATM to bet against that.

 

Mark Broadie and Dean Knuth agree with Jim from accounting.

[AUTIGER07]

I sincerely doubt it but I would pay a lot of money for the chance to.

[heavy_hitter]

Was just listening to PGA Tour Radio on Sirius XM. One of the Paulson's just said "A scratch golfer could hit every green at Augusta National and shoot over 90."