Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[mjen43]

Was just listening to PGA Tour Radio on Sirius XM. One of the Paulson's just said "A scratch golfer could hit every green at Augusta National and shoot over 90."

 

Interesting. I wonder why he thinks a scratch golfer could be good enough to hit 18 GIRs while also being so bad at putting they wouldn’t break 90. I’ve never seen a player of this type before.

[jslane57]

Was just listening to PGA Tour Radio on Sirius XM. One of the Paulson's just said "A scratch golfer could hit every green at Augusta National and shoot over 90."

 

Interesting. I wonder why he thinks a scratch golfer could be good enough to hit 18 GIRs while also being so bad at putting they wouldn't break 90. I've never seen a player of this type before.

Not really what he meant. He meant if the scratch golfer had the tee to green day of his entire life, he still may not be able to break 90 due to the severity of the greens...

[mjen43]

Was just listening to PGA Tour Radio on Sirius XM. One of the Paulson's just said "A scratch golfer could hit every green at Augusta National and shoot over 90."

 

Interesting. I wonder why he thinks a scratch golfer could be good enough to hit 18 GIRs while also being so bad at putting they wouldn't break 90. I've never seen a player of this type before.

Not really what he meant. He meant if the scratch golfer had the tee to green day of his entire life, he still may not be able to break 90 due to the severity of the greens...

 

Interesting. All indications are that putting is the one skill in which decent amateurs are closest in ability to touring professionals. Estimates place a scratch amateur at about 1 stroke worse per round on the greens. Seems pretty illogical to think that all of a sudden that would rocket up to approximately 20 shots just because the greens are extra fast and hilly. Maybe 2-5 would make more sense. Seems like he’s just talking out of his a**.

[heavy_hitter]

Was just listening to PGA Tour Radio on Sirius XM. One of the Paulson's just said "A scratch golfer could hit every green at Augusta National and shoot over 90."

 

Interesting. I wonder why he thinks a scratch golfer could be good enough to hit 18 GIRs while also being so bad at putting they wouldn't break 90. I've never seen a player of this type before.

Not really what he meant. He meant if the scratch golfer had the tee to green day of his entire life, he still may not be able to break 90 due to the severity of the greens...

 

Interesting. All indications are that putting is the one skill in which decent amateurs are closest in ability to touring professionals. Estimates place a scratch amateur at about 1 stroke worse per round on the greens. Seems pretty illogical to think that all of a sudden that would rocket up to approximately 20 shots just because the greens are extra fast and hilly. Maybe 2-5 would make more sense. Seems like he's just talking out of his a**.

 

You have it all wrong. If they hit the wrong part of the green they are 3 putting. Even the pros are three putting from certain parts of the green. It is because Augusta is a second shot course. How you play is going to be dictated by that approach shot.

[mjen43]

Was just listening to PGA Tour Radio on Sirius XM. One of the Paulson's just said "A scratch golfer could hit every green at Augusta National and shoot over 90."

 

Interesting. I wonder why he thinks a scratch golfer could be good enough to hit 18 GIRs while also being so bad at putting they wouldn't break 90. I've never seen a player of this type before.

Not really what he meant. He meant if the scratch golfer had the tee to green day of his entire life, he still may not be able to break 90 due to the severity of the greens...

 

Interesting. All indications are that putting is the one skill in which decent amateurs are closest in ability to touring professionals. Estimates place a scratch amateur at about 1 stroke worse per round on the greens. Seems pretty illogical to think that all of a sudden that would rocket up to approximately 20 shots just because the greens are extra fast and hilly. Maybe 2-5 would make more sense. Seems like he's just talking out of his a**.

 

You have it all wrong. If they hit the wrong part of the green they are 3 putting. Even the pros are three putting from certain parts of the green. It is because Augusta is a second shot course. How you play is going to be dictated by that approach shot.

 

So someone who has the ability to hit 18 GIR is also going to hit it on the wrong spot on every single green? I don’t think so. A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90.

[BMC]

Absolutely. But, not often. The hypothetical debate here is ridiculous.

[straightshot7]

You have it all wrong. If they hit the wrong part of the green they are 3 putting. Even the pros are three putting from certain parts of the green. It is because Augusta is a second shot course. How you play is going to be dictated by that approach shot.

 

So someone who has the ability to hit 18 GIR is also going to hit it on the wrong spot on every single green? I don't think so. A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90.

 

Dude it was obviously just a sensational, hypothetical situation meant to illustrate the difficulty of the greens. It wasn't meant to be taken literally. The idea of an amateur scratch golfer hitting 18 GIR illustrates that the scenario itself was not meant to be taken as a literal/real scenario.

 

He never said that they would not break 90 in every scenario. He only said that they "could" meaning it is possible or probably.

[Sean2]

After watching today, many professionals are struggling to shoot par or better.

[mjen43]

You have it all wrong. If they hit the wrong part of the green they are 3 putting. Even the pros are three putting from certain parts of the green. It is because Augusta is a second shot course. How you play is going to be dictated by that approach shot.

 

So someone who has the ability to hit 18 GIR is also going to hit it on the wrong spot on every single green? I don't think so. A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90.

 

Dude it was obviously just a sensational, hypothetical situation meant to illustrate the difficulty of the greens. It wasn't meant to be taken literally. The idea of an amateur scratch golfer hitting 18 GIR illustrates that the scenario itself was not meant to be taken as a literal/real scenario.

 

He never said that they would not break 90 in every scenario. He only said that they "could" meaning it is possible or probably.

 

I hope you also think a scratch could break 85 then, too.

[straightshot7]

You have it all wrong. If they hit the wrong part of the green they are 3 putting. Even the pros are three putting from certain parts of the green. It is because Augusta is a second shot course. How you play is going to be dictated by that approach shot.

 

So someone who has the ability to hit 18 GIR is also going to hit it on the wrong spot on every single green? I don't think so. A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90.

 

Dude it was obviously just a sensational, hypothetical situation meant to illustrate the difficulty of the greens. It wasn't meant to be taken literally. The idea of an amateur scratch golfer hitting 18 GIR illustrates that the scenario itself was not meant to be taken as a literal/real scenario.

 

He never said that they would not break 90 in every scenario. He only said that they "could" meaning it is possible or probably.

 

I hope you also think a scratch could break 85 then, too.

 

Yes, of course I think it's possible. But not probable.

[heavy_hitter]

 

 

So someone who has the ability to hit 18 GIR is also going to hit it on the wrong spot on every single green? I don't think so. A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90.

 

You are giving a scratch golfer too much credit.

[Sean2]

So someone who has the ability to hit 18 GIR is also going to hit it on the wrong spot on every single green? I don't think so. A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90.

 

You are giving a scratch golfer too much credit.

 

If he is hitting 18 GIR's, he is not a scratch golfer. :-)

[deadsolid...shank]

Right now I'm not sure a scratch breaks a 100. Its brutal out there today. I love it!

[mjen43]

 

 

So someone who has the ability to hit 18 GIR is also going to hit it on the wrong spot on every single green? I don't think so. A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90.

 

You are giving a scratch golfer too much credit.

 

A scratch level putter hitting 18 GIR at ANGC in tournament conditions is no scratch golfer. They have now played, overall, to the level of one of the best golfers in the world, maybe the best. You are overestimating the difficulty of putting and the factors that make a professional a professional. Amateurs are much closer in ability to professionals on the greens relative to tee to green, so if you give a decent amateur putter, which we can assume a scratch golfer is, (who is 1-3 shots per round worse than a professional on the greens) a GOAT level tee to green game (which 18 GIR indicates), they are going to have a damn good round.

[WHC888]

did Rickie read this thread right before the interview just now?? :)

[straightshot7]

So someone who has the ability to hit 18 GIR is also going to hit it on the wrong spot on every single green? I don't think so. A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90.

 

You are giving a scratch golfer too much credit.

 

A scratch level putter hitting 18 GIR at ANGC in tournament conditions is no scratch golfer. They have now played, overall, to the level of one of the best golfers in the world, maybe the best. You are overestimating the difficulty of putting and the factors that make a professional a professional. Amateurs are much closer in ability to professionals on the greens relative to tee to green, so if you give a decent amateur putter, which we can assume a scratch golfer is, (who is 1-3 shots per round worse than a professional on the greens) a GOAT level tee to green game (which 18 GIR indicates), they are going to have a damn good round.

 

You're underestimating the unique difficulty of the greens at Augusta. That was the whole point of the original quote.

 

Look at the 25 foot putt Tiger just had on 13 where he had to aim 20 feet right.

 

You don't think a "scratch" player would, mostly due to ignorance of the greens, have at least a couple 4 putts and several 3 putts? They definitely would.

 

Tiger once putted the ball from the middle of the green into the hazard on 13. That doesn't happen on normal greens.

 

If arguably the greatest putter ever could putt the ball into a hazard, you don't think your average scratch would struggle? They'd get killed if the greens were in tournament condition.

[lowheel]

4 AMs broke 80 and 1 shot above 85.

 

Of course its possible.

 

Those guys arent scratch, theyre tournament +3s and +4s. world of difference. they also played plenty of practice rounds there and had 7 + days of use of the practice facilities to acclimatize themselves and still barely did it. Its possible to win the loto as well but not probable :)

 

did Rickie read this thread right before the interview just now?? :)

 

Yup, thought the same thing. He was being very generous as well

[MtlJeff]

If a scratch player "can't" do it, meaning like if you lined up 10 scratch players who'd never played the course before, and they all played 18 holes there under tournament conditions....and the hypothesis is that none would break 85

 

Than, as was stated several pages ago, we are saying the course rating under Sunday conditions is pretty much 85.0. Which i believe would be the highest ever recorded. And we're also saying that pros in the Masters are all +11 to +13 indexes

 

I just can't believe either to be true. It's too big a leap

[curitiba]

the answer is: YES! A scratch player can EASILY play under 85.

[deadsolid...shank]

If a scratch player "can't" do it, meaning like if you lined up 10 scratch players who'd never played the course before, and they all played 18 holes there under tournament conditions....and the hypothesis is that none would break 85

 

Than, as was stated several pages ago, we are saying the course rating under Sunday conditions is pretty much 85.0. Which i believe would be the highest ever recorded. And we're also saying that pros in the Masters are all +11 to +13 indexes

 

I just can't believe either to be true. It's too big a leap

 

I've been on that side throughout this debate Jeff, but today has made me change my opinion. Its just so severe. Just small misses can lead to such bad results. I just feel most ams, even good ones, are not going to recover from one or two of those "so close" shots. There is a big, card wrecking number waiting around every corner.

[MtlJeff]

If a scratch player "can't" do it, meaning like if you lined up 10 scratch players who'd never played the course before, and they all played 18 holes there under tournament conditions....and the hypothesis is that none would break 85

 

Than, as was stated several pages ago, we are saying the course rating under Sunday conditions is pretty much 85.0. Which i believe would be the highest ever recorded. And we're also saying that pros in the Masters are all +11 to +13 indexes

 

I just can't believe either to be true. It's too big a leap

 

I've been on that side throughout this debate Jeff, but today has made me change my opinion. Its just so severe. Just small misses can lead to such bad results. I just feel most ams, even good ones, are not going to recover from one or two of those "so close" shots. There is a big, card wrecking number waiting around every corner.

 

I just believe in math over our flawed human feelings. Some guys would absolutely do what Sergio did on 15 (or worse), but some wouldn't. A scratch player isn't a bum, he can put club to ball effectively, and he can putt moderately well on even severe greens.

 

I watched Ben Rothlesberger shoot an 81 (i think was?) on Bethpage Black from the tips under US Open conditions, you can cite that just like citing Tiger Woods putting into the water.

 

I don't think anyone is shooting 74.....but put 10 guys on the course and guys would do it. One of them would shoot 104 too. But more than one would break 85

[RobotDoctor]

I would take an entire year of my earnings and bet that a scratch golfer could not break 85 at ANGC under the original criteria. If the golfer comes in at +0.1 then they are not eligible for the challenge because that's a plus handicap golfer. I don't know of a single scratch golfer that can control the flight of their shots to the precise level to conquer the greens at ANGC. Miss a spot on the green by 5 feet in some places and you're facing a 3 putt if you even hold the green. Putt too hard on some greens and good luck holding the green or not putting into the water. No way possible. What we're watching today is Friday conditions and not too brutal as there isn't much wind and it's sunny.

[mjen43]

So someone who has the ability to hit 18 GIR is also going to hit it on the wrong spot on every single green? I don't think so. A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90.

 

You are giving a scratch golfer too much credit.

 

A scratch level putter hitting 18 GIR at ANGC in tournament conditions is no scratch golfer. They have now played, overall, to the level of one of the best golfers in the world, maybe the best. You are overestimating the difficulty of putting and the factors that make a professional a professional. Amateurs are much closer in ability to professionals on the greens relative to tee to green, so if you give a decent amateur putter, which we can assume a scratch golfer is, (who is 1-3 shots per round worse than a professional on the greens) a GOAT level tee to green game (which 18 GIR indicates), they are going to have a damn good round.

 

You're underestimating the unique difficulty of the greens at Augusta. That was the whole point of the original quote.

 

Look at the 25 foot putt Tiger just had on 13 where he had to aim 20 feet right.

 

You don't think a "scratch" player would, mostly due to ignorance of the greens, have at least a couple 4 putts and several 3 putts? They definitely would.

 

Tiger once putted the ball from the middle of the green into the hazard on 13. That doesn't happen on normal greens.

 

If arguably the greatest putter ever could putt the ball into a hazard, you don't think your average scratch would struggle? They'd get killed if the greens were in tournament condition.

 

The quote was a “a scratch amateur could struggle to break 90 hitting 18 greens.” I’m sure they would struggle, but not to that extent. I’m sure if you placed the ball in the worst possible spot on each green to each pin that would be the case, as there are plenty of putts that are physically impossible to get close, but in those scenarios the player is losing more strokes from the approach shot than the 3 putt.

 

If you are 165 yards out, tour average is holing out in 3.00 shots. However, if you have 165 and hit it on the green to a location where it is extremely easy to 3 putt, and say it takes 2.8 on average to hole out (a scenario which is very possible at ANGC), and you do in fact 3 putt, you have actually lost .8 shots on the approach and only .2 shots by 3 putting.

 

Being in control enough to hit 18 greens implies you are able to control your approaches enough to manage avoiding the near impossible 2 putt locations. 13 is an extremely severe green so if you found yourself in a location where a putt can bring the hazard into play, say back top tier down to a bottom pin, you probably lost more shots on the approach than if you three putt, indicating your true mistake was the horrible wedge.

 

A round with someone on enough to hit 18 greens typically involves plenty of stuffed approaches, some safe shots to safe locations, and a few slight misses where lag putting becomes important. We’ll give our scratch golfer six 3 putts, two 4 putts, and two makes, and you’ve got a stress free 80 off of a truly horrific putting display. Give just a bad putting round of 6 3 putts and 2 makes, and now he is hanging with tour pros.

[straightshot7]

So someone who has the ability to hit 18 GIR is also going to hit it on the wrong spot on every single green? I don't think so. A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90.

 

You are giving a scratch golfer too much credit.

 

A scratch level putter hitting 18 GIR at ANGC in tournament conditions is no scratch golfer. They have now played, overall, to the level of one of the best golfers in the world, maybe the best. You are overestimating the difficulty of putting and the factors that make a professional a professional. Amateurs are much closer in ability to professionals on the greens relative to tee to green, so if you give a decent amateur putter, which we can assume a scratch golfer is, (who is 1-3 shots per round worse than a professional on the greens) a GOAT level tee to green game (which 18 GIR indicates), they are going to have a damn good round.

 

You're underestimating the unique difficulty of the greens at Augusta. That was the whole point of the original quote.

 

Look at the 25 foot putt Tiger just had on 13 where he had to aim 20 feet right.

 

You don't think a "scratch" player would, mostly due to ignorance of the greens, have at least a couple 4 putts and several 3 putts? They definitely would.

 

Tiger once putted the ball from the middle of the green into the hazard on 13. That doesn't happen on normal greens.

 

If arguably the greatest putter ever could putt the ball into a hazard, you don't think your average scratch would struggle? They'd get killed if the greens were in tournament condition.

 

The quote was a "a scratch amateur could struggle to break 90 hitting 18 greens." I'm sure they would struggle, but not to that extent. I'm sure if you placed the ball in the worst possible spot on each green to each pin that would be the case, as there are plenty of putts that are physically impossible to get close, but in those scenarios the player is losing more strokes from the approach shot than the 3 putt.

 

If you are 165 yards out, tour average is holing out in 3.00 shots. However, if you have 165 and hit it on the green to a location where it is extremely easy to 3 putt, and say it takes 2.8 on average to hole out (a scenario which is very possible at ANGC), and you do in fact 3 putt, you have actually lost .8 shots on the approach and only .2 shots by 3 putting.

 

Being in control enough to hit 18 greens implies you are able to control your approaches enough to manage avoiding the near impossible 2 putt locations. 13 is an extremely severe green so if you found yourself in a location where a putt can bring the hazard into play, say back top tier down to a bottom pin, you probably lost more shots on the approach than if you three putt, indicating your true mistake was the horrible wedge.

 

A round with someone on enough to hit 18 greens typically involves plenty of stuffed approaches, some safe shots to safe locations, and a few slight misses where lag putting becomes important. We'll give our scratch golfer six 3 putts, two 4 putts, and two makes, and you've got a stress free 80 off of a truly horrific putting display. Give just a bad putting round of 6 3 putts and 2 makes, and now he is hanging with tour pros.

 

The person who said that was exaggerating for effect. I don't think it is that likely that the person doesn't break 90 in that scenario.

 

But, if you really think "A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90", again I think you are underestimating the difficulty of the greens.

[mjen43]

 

The person who said that was exaggerating for effect. I don't think it is that likely that the person doesn't break 90 in that scenario.

 

But, if you really think "A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90", again I think you are underestimating the difficulty of the greens.

 

Considering that I believe the odds of them shooting 90 are zero, I’d take my chances.

[nsxguy]

 

did Rickie read this thread right before the interview just now?? :)

 

Yup, thought the same thing. He was being very generous as well

 

He was also referring to the "average" golfer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[Obee]

I would take an entire year of my earnings and bet that a scratch golfer could not break 85 at ANGC under the original criteria. If the golfer comes in at +0.1 then they are not eligible for the challenge because that's a plus handicap golfer. I don't know of a single scratch golfer that can control the flight of their shots to the precise level to conquer the greens at ANGC. Miss a spot on the green by 5 feet in some places and you're facing a 3 putt if you even hold the green. Putt too hard on some greens and good luck holding the green or not putting into the water. No way possible. What we're watching today is Friday conditions and not too brutal as there isn't much wind and it's sunny.

 

I'm jumpin' back in!! NOOOOOOO!!!!

 

Have you ever heard of a course called Torrey Pines South? It plays harder than Augusta virtually every year on Sunday. Look up the stats yourself.

 

Would a scratch player be able to shoot 84 there?

 

Hell they don't even tip out the golf course at Torrey any single day of the tournament.

 

If your answer is yes, why? And if your answer is no, please bring your entire year's salary and I'll bring 10 scratch players and you will lose your entire year's salary.

 

We will set it up for the Monday after the tournament. Same tees, same pins. Been there, done that. WORST score in our entire group was mid 80's.

 

My guess is that you will equivocate, and somehow figure out a way to make Augusta more difficult then Torrey, but "only for a scratch player," which is nonsense. It is tougher than Augusta

 

Tony Romo, a legitimate +1 to +3 (and prolly 2 strokes, on average, better than a year-long scratch) shot 81 there IN US OPEN CONDITIONS fer fock's sake.

 

One guy, one round, U.S. Open conditions at a course that is more difficult than Augusta, and he shoots 81.

 

Take ten guys who all AVERAGE SCRATCH for a whole year, and a couple are gonna break 85 at either course. And a couple are gonna shoot in the 90's.

 

Average score of the group will probably be right around 85, actually.

 

Which makes the "Is it possible?" bet a near certainty with even a small group of scratch players.

 

And, by the way, I would love to see your mystical player who averages 0.0 for an entire year. LOL.

 

How about be reasonable and say anybody whose index averages 0.5 to +0.5 for the entire year.

 

You are so certain that half stroke different shouldn't mean anything, right? ;-)

 

 

 

[cdnglf]

The person who said that was exaggerating for effect. I don't think it is that likely that the person doesn't break 90 in that scenario.

 

But, if you really think "A scratch golfer who hits 18 GIR is far more likely to shoot under par than they are not break 90", again I think you are underestimating the difficulty of the greens.

 

That's 54 putts! Not sure a scratch would need that many using a wrong-handed putter bought at a garage sale 10 minutes before tee time.

[DavePelz4]

If they wanted, they could set up ANGC in such a way that no one could break 80.

 

Pin positions, shaved banks, sub-aire...

[Obee]

If they wanted, they could set up ANGC in such a way that no one could break 80.

 

Pin positions, shaved banks, sub-aire...

 

Absolutely!