Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[Short Pete]

The big difference would be the back tees and no caddie. Doglegs like 1, 13 or 18 are playable for guys like him (without knowing how he plays) from the members tees. From the tourney tees he won't make it around the bend off the tee. 11 is 400 yds down the hill, 510 from the back tees. No. 4 is 170 for members, 240 for pros. All in all the press guys play a course that's over 1.000 yds shorter than what the pros play.

[dpb5031]

As a scratch golfer, am I alone in thinking that if I treated the task at hand as shooting, say, 82 instead of 72 that I might stand a better chance of shooting the sub 85 round? I guess what I mean is if I just accepted I might play a few par 4s like par 5s and otherwise just laid up to comfortable numbers when I missed up, it might actually go better. It seems to me like your biggest trouble at Augusta is forcing the issue when you shouldn’t.

 

No, you're not.

 

Also, remember that the long par fours usually have reasonably sized greens. If you lay up to 70 to 90 yards and can spin a wedge you're going to make your share of fours and fives on the long par fours.

 

I generally agree with Isaac, Obee, and the others that believe a scratch player could get it done at Augusta National...even in tournament conditions.

 

First off, not all scratch players have equal skillsets. Some are short knockers but hit a lot of GIRs yet don't put well. Some are bombers, but tend to hit a few off the grid. Others are scrappy grinders who putt exceptionally well.

 

It's nearly impossible to lose a ball at ANGC. Even if you spray it wildly you can still find the ball and advance it since there's no rough of any consequence.

 

I think a long hitting scratch player who is an excellent putter (especially lag putting) would do quite well as long as he negotiated conservatively around the water hazards without taking ridiculous chances. If the focus was to make bogey his worst score, low 80s shouldn't be anywhere close to impossible.

 

I think your typical US Open venue with 6 inch primary rough, acres of 2 foot high fescue, and plenty of other chances for lost balls would be much more difficult for most scratch players.

[JL1]

The CNN golf guy Shane O'Donoghue said he shot 81 at Augusta yesterday, as the press get to play the day afterwards. He's nowhere near scratch as far as I know. Know another media guy playing off 4 or 5 that shot better than 80.

 

Would be tournament conditions more or less. The big difference would be back tees and the pressure of playing in front of crowds. But a relatively long competitive scratch player should be able to deal with that.

 

Media Day following The Masters is played from the Members tees at 6,365 yards. The TIPS are strictly off limits for that day because, one, many of those selected barely play, and two, because some of the writers don't play very often and because of the majesty of it all the rounds tend towards 5.5 to even 6 hours. If they allowed them the TIPS it would get out of hand pretty quick. The point being that using O'Donoghue's score might not be applicable. Shane sports a 5.7 Index, btw.

[TheCityGame]

The average scratch never plays more than a blue diamond. And they play it repeatedly.

 

You think if they were never allowed to play the same course twice that their handicap wouldn't be higher?

 

So factor that in as well. They play the same easy courses (compared to Augusta), made easier by repeated play.

Seriously?

 

The average scratch?

 

Because ALL of the low guys I know have been up to Bethpage and/or down to Pinehurst. They've golfed long enough (again, I'm talking about scratch golfers, not your average 18 capper) to know enough people and have played -- of the top of my head -- Merion, Congressional, Caves Valley, Robert Trent Jones, TPC Avenal/Potomac, Aronomink. They've traveled and played Torrey Pines or Pebble. I know a bunch of guys who have played Chambers, Whistling Straights, Erin Hills. That's to say nothing of an assortment of Tillinghast, Ross, Flynn courses. Courses like Bulle Rock (which used to hold an LPGA major) and Baltimore CC (which holds/held a senior event).

 

As a matter of fact I don't know ANY golfers who are at -- or have been at -- scratch who haven't played at least a few courses I just listed.

 

Not to mention -- there are a ton of courses around here -- high end Daily Fee and municipal, some that hold US Open qualifiers that can play over 7300 yards (and tons more in the 7000+ range.) And that's what these guys play.

 

Your "average scratch" who got there playing some 6500 par 72 is the fictional character here. And even if that's all he did, I bet he has game.

[monty09]

85 can be broken by a 4

[isaacbm]

The average scratch never plays more than a blue diamond. And they play it repeatedly.

 

You think if they were never allowed to play the same course twice that their handicap wouldn't be higher?

 

So factor that in as well. They play the same easy courses (compared to Augusta), made easier by repeated play.

Seriously?

 

The average scratch?

 

Because ALL of the low guys I know have been up to Bethpage and/or down to Pinehurst. They've golfed long enough (again, I'm talking about scratch golfers, not your average 18 capper) to know enough people and have played -- of the top of my head -- Merion, Congressional, Caves Valley, Robert Trent Jones, TPC Avenal/Potomac, Aronomink. They've traveled and played Torrey Pines or Pebble. I know a bunch of guys who have played Chambers, Whistling Straights, Erin Hills. That's to say nothing of an assortment of Tillinghast, Ross, Flynn courses. Courses like Bulle Rock (which used to hold an LPGA major) and Baltimore CC (which holds/held a senior event).

 

As a matter of fact I don't know ANY golfers who are at -- or have been at -- scratch who haven't played at least a few courses I just listed.

 

Not to mention -- there are a ton of courses around here -- high end Daily Fee and municipal, some that hold US Open qualifiers that can play over 7300 yards (and tons more in the 7000+ range.) And that's what these guys play.

 

Your "average scratch" who got there playing some 6500 par 72 is the fictional character here. And even if that's all he did, I bet he has game.

I agree completely. I play about hundred rounds per year probably over 30 different courses.

Also, if a guy plays at 6500 all the time, in order for him to be a scratch it means that he shoots under par a lot. That’s the way handicap and slope work. Some of the people on here are making it sound like they’re confusing a scratch player with someone who shoots 72 on an easy course. In order to be a scratch player on an easy course, The guy has to actually shoot under par quite often.

[isaacbm]

As a scratch golfer, am I alone in thinking that if I treated the task at hand as shooting, say, 82 instead of 72 that I might stand a better chance of shooting the sub 85 round? I guess what I mean is if I just accepted I might play a few par 4s like par 5s and otherwise just laid up to comfortable numbers when I missed up, it might actually go better. It seems to me like your biggest trouble at Augusta is forcing the issue when you shouldn’t.

 

No, you're not.

 

Also, remember that the long par fours usually have reasonably sized greens. If you lay up to 70 to 90 yards and can spin a wedge you're going to make your share of fours and fives on the long par fours.

 

I generally agree with Isaac, Obee, and the others that believe a scratch player could get it done at Augusta National...even in tournament conditions.

 

First off, not all scratch players have equal skillsets. Some are short knockers but hit a lot of GIRs yet don't put well. Some are bombers, but tend to hit a few off the grid. Others are scrappy grinders who putt exceptionally well.

 

It's nearly impossible to lose a ball at ANGC. Even if you spray it wildly you can still find the ball and advance it since there's no rough of any consequence.

 

I think a long hitting scratch player who is an excellent putter (especially lag putting) would do quite well as long as he negotiated conservatively around the water hazards without taking ridiculous chances. If the focus was to make bogey his worst score, low 80s shouldn't be anywhere close to impossible.

 

I think your typical US Open venue with 6 inch primary rough, acres of 2 foot high fescue, and plenty of other chances for lost balls would be much more difficult for most scratch players.

Your point about the US Open venue is bang on. Of any of the four majors, the Masters would by far be the easiest one to break 85. As you said, there is no rough and it’s nearly impossible to lose a ball with driver other than maybe hole 13 if you hook it. I was an alternate in the U.S. Open the year that Corey Pavin won at Shinecock Hills. You could literally lose a ball on every hole in the rough, especially if there was no gallery or spotters. In fact, in a practice round, we were losing balls all over the place. I mean you would hit a shot 3 yards off the fairway, your chance of finding it was maybe only 50%.. Augusta is easily one of the easiest driving golf courses on the entire tour.

 

[isaacbm]

Just to be clear, Obee And I were texting each other yesterday and we both agree that a scratch definitely has the potential to shoot an an enormously high number at Augusta! I just think that they definitely have the potential to break 85. I in no way think Augusta is easy. I’m simply saying that it’s completely ridiculous to think that there is “no chance” that it could happen. There’s a better chance that the first time scratch would shoot over 85. Just not impossible!

[isaacbm]

I think realistically, Vegas odds makers would put the chance of a legitimate scratch breaking 85 at about 5 to 1. There’s no way they would take on more risk than that.

 

If you disagree then I honestly think you don’t understand odds or risk or have simply never placed bets.

[Shilgy]

85 can be broken by a 4

But could an LPGA player shoot 85? :) But seriously...in that thread the same guys that are saying the scratch has no chance said the LPGA average player is +1 to scratch. So none of them could shoot 85 either?

[Obee]

I think a really big factor is this, are the “Sunday conditions” really like this year’s Friday or Saturday conditions?

 

Big difference there. It was the Friday conditions that originally made me change my mind, but apparently yesterday’s were little more benign.

 

Last years sunday conditions were way tougher of course. this year the rain took the fire out of the course and allowed players to get super aggressive. if it stayed like friday it would be a bloodbath this weekend. Either were not a typical.

 

And still, Torrey South played tougher on Sunday of the Farmers....

 

Glad to see you’re still here beating the Torrey pines drum...

 

Well, you never acknowledge when you are wrong. LOL I guess I'll keep beating it until you acknowledge it. Maybe once every few months until you acknowledge it...

 

It's actually not that difficult to say something like "Wow I guess I have my facts wrong. I was combining the north and south courses. But Torrey Pines South actually is tougher on Sunday during a regular tour stop than Augusta is for the Masters on Sunday."

 

I point it out to demystify Augusta. Torrey is a regular tour stop. Torrey south is a super difficult golf course. But the thing is, it is accessible to the general public. Anyone can play it around the time of the tournament. It's easy to know what scratch golfers will shoot at Torrey (give or take a few shots). They play there all the time.

 

But in our exchange a while back, you dismissed that as having no bearing whatsoever on the Augusta conversation. Your initial response was to point out (incorrectly) that Torrey South was easier than Augusta. When I did some research and proved to you that it was tougher than Augusta, you never responded.

 

In your mind, Augusta is an untameable beast. It's just not. Stewart Hagestad and Jeff Knox are 4 to 8 shots better per round then a true scratch golfer who posts all of his scores and plays some tournament golf. The range of their high scores is much lower than the range of a scratch player's high scores, but the scratch players best scores will be 4 to 8 shots worse than guys like Hagestad and Knox.

 

Around four on a relatively easy course, and around eight on a very tough course like Torrey South or Augusta or any other course with a very high rating and slope.

 

And, like Isaac said, are there scratch players who would shoot a boatload? Absolutely! High 90s is not out of the question! The range of scores would be very very high. That is what a long difficult golf course does to all golfers.

 

Finally, I will acknowledge that there are some "scratch" golfers who have next to no chance of shooting 85 at Augusta. These are the guys that when you look up any tournament scores that they do have consistently shoot in the low 80s. A guy like this would likely shoot 90+ at Augusta for sure. They just haven't learned to shoot any type of reasonable number when it counts.

 

I will also acknowledge I might shoot 90 at Augusta right now. It is been a long, difficult winter, and I have elbow tendinitis so bad I can barely pick up a cup of coffee in the morning. :-(

 

Birdies and eagles to everyone in this thread. I would love to tee it up with any of you when you are in Southern California anytime. Anybody who is compelled to post on this thread more than once is a friend of mine for sure regardless of what side of the argument they are on. :-)

 

Except you, LowHeel... ;-)

[Obee]

The average scratch never plays more than a blue diamond. And they play it repeatedly.

 

You think if they were never allowed to play the same course twice that their handicap wouldn't be higher?

 

So factor that in as well. They play the same easy courses (compared to Augusta), made easier by repeated play.

 

Have to respond to this one: like Isaac and several others have said here, I don't know very many true scratch golfers (who average a scratch handicap over an entire year) who do not play some tournament golf and seek out very very difficult golf courses to play. Their home course might not be a difficult one, but literally every scratch golfer that I know under the age of 50 seeks out difficult, challenging golf courses to play as often as possible. From the tips.

 

Part of the problem here is that there are too many guys out there who claim to be scratch golfers, or who we think of as scratch golfers because one month their index was 0.3. That is not a scratch golfer. That is a guy who one month had an index near scratch. I repeat, that is not a scratch golfer. If that guy also doesn't play much tournament golf, he would have a very slim chance of breaking 85 at Augusta no matter the circumstances.

 

Also, at the "near scratch level," there are quite a few who are reverse sandbaggers, or vanity handicappers. Many guys near scratch do not post their high scores. They figure out a reason to not post the 84 they shoot because they were injured, or they "forget."

 

But they do post literally every score they shoot around par or below. This is not a scratch golfer, people. This is someone who desperately wants to be a scratch golfer. I know, because in my 20s I used to be one of them! LOL

 

The further we get from someone being a player who legitimately averages a scratch handicap the more difficult it will be for them to break 85, For sure.

[Orville]

The marker that plays with the first group on the weekends is right around scratch I believe and shoots about scratch all the time even during the tournaments. 85 should be easy.

 

The hard part of Augusta is well known, the greens, deep bunkers and ledges around green, and hole 11. The easy part isn't discussed much, but the fairways are huge, there really is only pine straw if you miss hit or miss aim a ball aside from a few holes, and no matter where you land your ball, if it's on grass it's the best grass you'll ever hit off of. Also there are only a handful of holes where hitting it long past the green is real bad... Most holes have some kind of backstop. I've been the last several years and it doesn't strike me as a particularly difficult course outside of the greens, assuming you have the distance to play it. Luckily I'm not even close to scratch, so I don't have to back up this claim lol

[straightshot7]

The average scratch never plays more than a blue diamond. And they play it repeatedly.

 

You think if they were never allowed to play the same course twice that their handicap wouldn't be higher?

 

So factor that in as well. They play the same easy courses (compared to Augusta), made easier by repeated play.

Seriously?

 

The average scratch?

 

Because ALL of the low guys I know have been up to Bethpage and/or down to Pinehurst. They've golfed long enough (again, I'm talking about scratch golfers, not your average 18 capper) to know enough people and have played -- of the top of my head -- Merion, Congressional, Caves Valley, Robert Trent Jones, TPC Avenal/Potomac, Aronomink. They've traveled and played Torrey Pines or Pebble. I know a bunch of guys who have played Chambers, Whistling Straights, Erin Hills. That's to say nothing of an assortment of Tillinghast, Ross, Flynn courses. Courses like Bulle Rock (which used to hold an LPGA major) and Baltimore CC (which holds/held a senior event).

 

As a matter of fact I don't know ANY golfers who are at -- or have been at -- scratch who haven't played at least a few courses I just listed.

 

Not to mention -- there are a ton of courses around here -- high end Daily Fee and municipal, some that hold US Open qualifiers that can play over 7300 yards (and tons more in the 7000+ range.) And that's what these guys play.

 

Your "average scratch" who got there playing some 6500 par 72 is the fictional character here. And even if that's all he did, I bet he has game.

 

So we're supposed to believe that your personal experience accounts for the entire country of scratches?

 

How many scratches have you interacted/played with? 50? 100?

 

What if I told you my experience is the exact opposite? Where does that leave us?

 

I have met dozens of "scratches" who fit my description.

 

Maybe I am wrong and that your depiction of a scratch is closer to the "average". But I do know that the one I described exists. And there is a chance one of those guys is our Augusta contestant.

 

I'll give you one specific example---my very good friend who I played golf with hundreds of times at our home course. He had a +5.8 handicap at the time.

 

He had a beautiful swing and all of the tools of a top player. The course we played was a par 70 and 6,600 yards from the back tees. I think the rating was 71 or 72 but it became extremely easy when you played it over and over. We knew every place to miss and we knew the greens inside and out.

 

Guess what happened when my friend played in tournaments? He shot 74-76. His game didn't travel. He never shot over 68 at our home course, but never under 74 in tournaments.

 

I refuse to believe that there aren't a lot of other golfers out there like that.

[MtlJeff]

The average scratch never plays more than a blue diamond. And they play it repeatedly.

 

You think if they were never allowed to play the same course twice that their handicap wouldn't be higher?

 

So factor that in as well. They play the same easy courses (compared to Augusta), made easier by repeated play.

Seriously?

 

The average scratch?

 

Because ALL of the low guys I know have been up to Bethpage and/or down to Pinehurst. They've golfed long enough (again, I'm talking about scratch golfers, not your average 18 capper) to know enough people and have played -- of the top of my head -- Merion, Congressional, Caves Valley, Robert Trent Jones, TPC Avenal/Potomac, Aronomink. They've traveled and played Torrey Pines or Pebble. I know a bunch of guys who have played Chambers, Whistling Straights, Erin Hills. That's to say nothing of an assortment of Tillinghast, Ross, Flynn courses. Courses like Bulle Rock (which used to hold an LPGA major) and Baltimore CC (which holds/held a senior event).

 

As a matter of fact I don't know ANY golfers who are at -- or have been at -- scratch who haven't played at least a few courses I just listed.

 

Not to mention -- there are a ton of courses around here -- high end Daily Fee and municipal, some that hold US Open qualifiers that can play over 7300 yards (and tons more in the 7000+ range.) And that's what these guys play.

 

Your "average scratch" who got there playing some 6500 par 72 is the fictional character here. And even if that's all he did, I bet he has game.

 

So we're supposed to believe that your personal experience accounts for the entire country of scratches?

 

How many scratches have you interacted/played with? 50? 100?

 

What if I told you my experience is the exact opposite? Where does that leave us?

 

I have met dozens of "scratches" who fit my description.

 

Maybe I am wrong and that your depiction of a scratch is closer to the "average". But I do know that the one I described exists. And there is a chance one of those guys is our Augusta contestant.

 

I'll give you one specific example---my very good friend who I played golf with hundreds of times at our home course. He had a +5.8 handicap at the time.

 

He had a beautiful swing and all of the tools of a top player. The course we played was a par 70 and 6,600 yards from the back tees. I think the rating was 71 or 72 but it became extremely easy when you played it over and over. We knew every place to miss and we knew the greens inside and out.

 

Guess what happened when my friend played in tournaments? He shot 74-76. His game didn't travel. He never shot over 68 at our home course, but never under 74 in tournaments.

 

I refuse to believe that there aren't a lot of other golfers out there like that.

 

If every scratch you know is a chump, and every scratch Obee knows is legit

 

And assuming you know similar numbers of people (you both seem like personable individuals)

 

Than 1 out of 2 scratch players could do it.

 

I think that's a ratio most would be ok with.

 

 

[Z1ggy16]

The marker that plays with the first group on the weekends is right around scratch I believe and shoots about scratch all the time even during the tournaments. 85 should be easy.

 

The hard part of Augusta is well known, the greens, deep bunkers and ledges around green, and hole 11. The easy part isn't discussed much, but the fairways are huge, there really is only pine straw if you miss hit or miss aim a ball aside from a few holes, and no matter where you land your ball, if it's on grass it's the best grass you'll ever hit off of. Also there are only a handful of holes where hitting it long past the green is real bad... Most holes have some kind of backstop. I've been the last several years and it doesn't strike me as a particularly difficult course outside of the greens, assuming you have the distance to play it. Luckily I'm not even close to scratch, so I don't have to back up this claim lol

 

If it's not hard, why is the average score to par only about -8, when in other PGA tourney guys are winning with -15 or better? Web.com winners it's not uncommon to see -20.

 

Where else do you see the previous years winner take a 13?

 

I think as an entire course and tournament with the pressure, the history, tradition etc... it's one of the toughest venues out there. Some might argue Quail Hollow is a harder course overall and maybe it is statistically, but I think there's just something about the Master's that brings it up to another level.

[3ack]

Yes, they could.

[Shilgy]

The marker that plays with the first group on the weekends is right around scratch I believe and shoots about scratch all the time even during the tournaments. 85 should be easy.

 

The hard part of Augusta is well known, the greens, deep bunkers and ledges around green, and hole 11. The easy part isn't discussed much, but the fairways are huge, there really is only pine straw if you miss hit or miss aim a ball aside from a few holes, and no matter where you land your ball, if it's on grass it's the best grass you'll ever hit off of. Also there are only a handful of holes where hitting it long past the green is real bad... Most holes have some kind of backstop. I've been the last several years and it doesn't strike me as a particularly difficult course outside of the greens, assuming you have the distance to play it. Luckily I'm not even close to scratch, so I don't have to back up this claim lol

 

If it's not hard, why is the average score to par only about -8, when in other PGA tourney guys are winning with -15 or better? Web.com winners it's not uncommon to see -20.

 

Where else do you see the previous years winner take a 13?

 

I think as an entire course and tournament with the pressure, the history, tradition etc... it's one of the toughest venues out there. Some might argue Quail Hollow is a harder course overall and maybe it is statistically, but I think there's just something about the Master's that brings it up to another level.

OP said nothing about actually playing in the Masters tournament.

 

This really has become Bickerwrx ™. Are you guys in the north where it's still snowing really that stir crazy?

[c7015]

What is the handicap of the am's that play the tournament? I have to imagine they are + since they are mostly college golfers

 

they still put up some big numbers ... so yes it's likely possible but still not a given.

[Dave230]

This was probably mentioned 20 pages ago, but let's not forget that a 14 year old Guan shot 73, 75, 77, 75 there. A 14-year-old beat 85 by 12 shots on Thursday. Of course any scratch golfer could if things go right for them. They could also not, but that could also happen at any PGA Tour tournament.

 

If 12 over is the target, on any kind of good day, a scratch could make a few birdies on Augusta between 2, 3, 8, 13, 15. These 5 holes averaged under their par during this year's tournament. As long as you don't Sergio it on 15, get through those holes in Even par, and you only need to beat a bogey average on the rest of the holes to break 85.

 

Harry Ellis was the only player in the field to fail to break 85 during this Masters. But that came from trying to shoot in the 60s/low 70s. If he knew he just had to break 85, would he go for it in 2 on 13 and double bogey? Or would he play it safe and play for par? Much of Augusta is risk/reward, but if you're trying to beat 85, you're not necessarily taking on risks.

[Shilgy]

This was probably mentioned 20 pages ago, but let's not forget that a 14 year old Guan shot 73, 75, 77, 75 there. A 14-year-old beat 85 by 12 shots on Thursday. Of course any scratch golfer could if things go right for them. They could also not, but that could also happen at any PGA Tour tournament.

 

If 12 over is the target, on any kind of good day, a scratch could make a few birdies on Augusta between 2, 3, 8, 13, 15. These 5 holes averaged under their par during this year's tournament. As long as you don't Sergio it on 15, get through those holes in Even par, and you only need to beat a bogey average on the rest of the holes to break 85.

 

Harry Ellis was the only player in the field to fail to break 85 during this Masters. But that came from trying to shoot in the 60s/low 70s. If he knew he just had to break 85, would he go for it in 2 on 13 and double bogey? Or would he play it safe and play for par? Much of Augusta is risk/reward, but if you're trying to beat 85, you're not necessarily taking on risks.

I guess that makes Mr Guan about a +10 or so. Gotta fit the narrative....

[JL1]

The thing about this issue is that there are all kinds of "scratch" golfers. Someone else mentioned it above, for every sandbagger there is an offsetting glamore-capper. Jeff Knox isn't even the lowest handicap at Augusta, but he is the one that always goes out as the marker for good reason.

 

I looked up the scores at last year's Georgia statewide Mid Am Championship. Knox and his +0.3 handicap finished in a T7 position in that event held at Cartersville CC, a course which is much easier than ANGC. At least two other members at ANGC played in that same event and finished well below that mark or did not make the cut, and both of those players have lower handicaps than even Knox. But just perusing their scores thru GHIN you can see that when these two players play tournaments their scores measurably go up.

 

Augusta has so many shots from tight lies, side hill and downhill lies, pine straw ...etc, and then all that water and the slope and speed of those greens. Players from up north rarely play off pine straw and are just not used to it. Most of them would also be playing those short pitches over or along water on 11, 13, and 15. They'd have some 3 and 4 putt greens.

 

I still believe that for most "scratch" players, in tournament conditions at ANGC, meaning all 7400 yards, most of them don't get 85. A minority will get in under that number, but just a minority.

[Sean2]

This thread is now 40 pages long. If there is a member of ANGC reading this thread, will you please invite a scratch golf to play your course so a definitive answer can be found, instead of this endless speculation? :-)

[avrag]

This thread is now 40 pages long. If there is a member of ANGC reading this thread, will you please invite a scratch golf to play your course so a definitive answer can be found, instead of this endless speculation? :-)

 

Don't you have to sign an NDA when you get invited?

As others have said, if a scratch golfer plays specfically with the sole target of breaking 85, I think that most will be able to do it.

Now, whether they manage to do it once in five tries or once in ten tries, that's another question. But it certainly isn't impossible.

[RobotDoctor]

The marker that plays with the first group on the weekends is right around scratch I believe and shoots about scratch all the time even during the tournaments. 85 should be easy.

 

The hard part of Augusta is well known, the greens, deep bunkers and ledges around green, and hole 11. The easy part isn't discussed much, but the fairways are huge, there really is only pine straw if you miss hit or miss aim a ball aside from a few holes, and no matter where you land your ball, if it's on grass it's the best grass you'll ever hit off of. Also there are only a handful of holes where hitting it long past the green is real bad... Most holes have some kind of backstop. I've been the last several years and it doesn't strike me as a particularly difficult course outside of the greens, assuming you have the distance to play it. Luckily I'm not even close to scratch, so I don't have to back up this claim lol

 

Keep in mind that Jeff Knox, a member at ANGC, has played the course many, many times and knows where to hit, where not to, and can read those greens extremely well. The scratch golfer adhering to the original criteria doesn't have first hand knowledge of ANGC except what he has either seen only on TV or on TV and attending the Masters tournament. 85 is a daunting task for any scratch golfer under the original criteria. If we follow this criteria to the letter then I say 85 or better isn't going to happen. If some of the criteria is changed, like allowing a caddie, then maybe. If the scratch has played ANGC before a handful of times and has a caddie then I agree that some scratch can break 85 under Sunday tournament conditions from tournament tees. But following the original criteria to the letter, no.

[RobotDoctor]

This was probably mentioned 20 pages ago, but let's not forget that a 14 year old Guan shot 73, 75, 77, 75 there. A 14-year-old beat 85 by 12 shots on Thursday. Of course any scratch golfer could if things go right for them. They could also not, but that could also happen at any PGA Tour tournament.

 

If 12 over is the target, on any kind of good day, a scratch could make a few birdies on Augusta between 2, 3, 8, 13, 15. These 5 holes averaged under their par during this year's tournament. As long as you don't Sergio it on 15, get through those holes in Even par, and you only need to beat a bogey average on the rest of the holes to break 85.

 

Harry Ellis was the only player in the field to fail to break 85 during this Masters. But that came from trying to shoot in the 60s/low 70s. If he knew he just had to break 85, would he go for it in 2 on 13 and double bogey? Or would he play it safe and play for par? Much of Augusta is risk/reward, but if you're trying to beat 85, you're not necessarily taking on risks.

I guess that makes Mr Guan about a +10 or so. Gotta fit the narrative....

 

Guan Tianlang played many practice rounds at ANGC before Masters week and played with quite a few former champions, including Ben Crenshaw and Tiger Woods before the tournament proper. I am certain he learned where he could hit and where not to as well as learn to read and putt the greens. That in itself disqualified Guan from the criteria set forth by the OP. I am certain Guan was a + handicapped player before his Masters appearance. He became the youngest player to win on the China Amateur Futures Tour (2010) and the China Amateur Tour (2011), he won the Boys 11-12 division at the 2011 Callaway Junior World Golf Championships in San Diego by 11 strokes. At age 13 years and 173 days, he became the youngest player to compete on the European Tour at the 2012 Volvo China Open. He won the 2012 Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship just after he turned 14. This was the win that earned him automatic qualification to the 2013 Masters Tournament.

 

So to compare Guan to our hypothetical scratch is as ludicrous as this thread has become.

[clouse8]

Very slim chance

[Obee]

This was probably mentioned 20 pages ago, but let's not forget that a 14 year old Guan shot 73, 75, 77, 75 there. A 14-year-old beat 85 by 12 shots on Thursday. Of course any scratch golfer could if things go right for them. They could also not, but that could also happen at any PGA Tour tournament.

 

If 12 over is the target, on any kind of good day, a scratch could make a few birdies on Augusta between 2, 3, 8, 13, 15. These 5 holes averaged under their par during this year's tournament. As long as you don't Sergio it on 15, get through those holes in Even par, and you only need to beat a bogey average on the rest of the holes to break 85.

 

Harry Ellis was the only player in the field to fail to break 85 during this Masters. But that came from trying to shoot in the 60s/low 70s. If he knew he just had to break 85, would he go for it in 2 on 13 and double bogey? Or would he play it safe and play for par? Much of Augusta is risk/reward, but if you're trying to beat 85, you're not necessarily taking on risks.

I guess that makes Mr Guan about a +10 or so. Gotta fit the narrative....

 

Guan Tianlang played many practice rounds at ANGC before Masters week and played with quite a few former champions, including Ben Crenshaw and Tiger Woods before the tournament proper. I am certain he learned where he could hit and where not to as well as learn to read and putt the greens. That in itself disqualified Guan from the criteria set forth by the OP. I am certain Guan was a + handicapped player before his Masters appearance. He became the youngest player to win on the China Amateur Futures Tour (2010) and the China Amateur Tour (2011), he won the Boys 11-12 division at the 2011 Callaway Junior World Golf Championships in San Diego by 11 strokes. At age 13 years and 173 days, he became the youngest player to compete on the European Tour at the 2012 Volvo China Open. He won the 2012 Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship just after he turned 14. This was the win that earned him automatic qualification to the 2013 Masters Tournament.

 

So to compare Guan to our hypothetical scratch is as ludicrous as this thread has become.

 

He's not saying they're the same, he's using the kid's scores for context. The scratch player doesn't need to match Guan, he needs to get within 9 shots of him. Are you familiar with the best junior golfers in the country? Have you ever competed against them?

[RobotDoctor]

This was probably mentioned 20 pages ago, but let's not forget that a 14 year old Guan shot 73, 75, 77, 75 there. A 14-year-old beat 85 by 12 shots on Thursday. Of course any scratch golfer could if things go right for them. They could also not, but that could also happen at any PGA Tour tournament.

 

If 12 over is the target, on any kind of good day, a scratch could make a few birdies on Augusta between 2, 3, 8, 13, 15. These 5 holes averaged under their par during this year's tournament. As long as you don't Sergio it on 15, get through those holes in Even par, and you only need to beat a bogey average on the rest of the holes to break 85.

 

Harry Ellis was the only player in the field to fail to break 85 during this Masters. But that came from trying to shoot in the 60s/low 70s. If he knew he just had to break 85, would he go for it in 2 on 13 and double bogey? Or would he play it safe and play for par? Much of Augusta is risk/reward, but if you're trying to beat 85, you're not necessarily taking on risks.

I guess that makes Mr Guan about a +10 or so. Gotta fit the narrative....

 

Guan Tianlang played many practice rounds at ANGC before Masters week and played with quite a few former champions, including Ben Crenshaw and Tiger Woods before the tournament proper. I am certain he learned where he could hit and where not to as well as learn to read and putt the greens. That in itself disqualified Guan from the criteria set forth by the OP. I am certain Guan was a + handicapped player before his Masters appearance. He became the youngest player to win on the China Amateur Futures Tour (2010) and the China Amateur Tour (2011), he won the Boys 11-12 division at the 2011 Callaway Junior World Golf Championships in San Diego by 11 strokes. At age 13 years and 173 days, he became the youngest player to compete on the European Tour at the 2012 Volvo China Open. He won the 2012 Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship just after he turned 14. This was the win that earned him automatic qualification to the 2013 Masters Tournament.

 

So to compare Guan to our hypothetical scratch is as ludicrous as this thread has become.

 

He's not saying they're the same, he's using the kid's scores for context. The scratch player doesn't need to match Guan, he needs to get within 9 shots of him. Are you familiar with the best junior golfers in the country? Have you ever competed against them?

 

Good grief no. Those kids would destroy me and my ego couldn't take it! :D

[nsxguy]