What is the sensible play on this hole?

[ParHunter]

I’ve played this hole hundreds of times but I am still not sure what is the best way to play this. It is a par 5. The long hitters can often go for the green which is protected by water. For me that is not an option. I have two options 1) Hit a short iron (9-8 iron to lay up before the water and then hit a PW-7iron over the water to the green. The problem is that it is often hard to judge how far you can safely hit your iron before it jumps into the water. You don’t want to be too far away from the water for your 3rd shot. The green is not very deep from this angle. Short is dead and long leaves you a tricky shot as there is a slop behind the green and if you pitch it on the slope it might role into the water. 

 

The second option is to take a 4 iron or wood and try to hit it along the water to where the fairway gets wider again. The problem is that if you draw it you are in the water and if you push it/slice it you are OOB.

You will be rewarded with a short wedge shot with no danger of water and a long green.

 

At the moment I try to go for option 2 when possible (when I am not too far back with my tee shot) but there is always the danger of OOB or the water.

 

With option 1 I often tend to hit my layup shots particular well and they go longer than usual and end up in the water and your 3rd shot is always over about 100 yards of water. Hit it only slightly heavy and it is in the water. Normally I am okay with my irons (playing of 10) but I do get the occasional heavy one.

 

My thinking so far has been if you hit it into the water with your second you at least get the distance. If you hit your 3rd shot into the water it is penalty+distance.

 

What do you think, what is the most sensible approach to play this hole which will lead to the lowest score on average?

 

Today I hooked a 4iron into the water (option 2) and was then forced to hit the 3rd shot from option 1 which I of course duffed ending up with an 8 😞

 

Edited June 5, 2021 by ParHunter

[pinhigh27]

I would lay up short of the water, depending on how narrow the chute is, but it looks pretty narrow. 

 

Long hitters probably hit it the water with some frequency going for it in two. 

[SNIPERBBB]

If you have dependable long iron/fairway wood/hybrid club have to go with #2. I don't mind risking the trouble as long as you rarely actually get into the trouble.  I'd only want to risk the hazard once than possibly doing it twice if you get into trouble with option 1

[nitram]

It really depends on the width between the water and the woods.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Directionally, is the arrow in #1 your typical play? I.e. you're trying to get it in line between the landing zone and the green, and trying to give yourself the shortest flight possible over the water? 

 

If so, why not shoot for the same-ish distance, but aim more to the right evenly between the edge of the water and the OOB (or shade one way or the other based on your typical stock draw/fade)? 

 

If you aim a little farther right, you are still hitting a short iron which should have good dispersion, but you're no longer penalized by a long shot that runs out--in fact you're helped. It's only very long AND left which hurts you, and it's less typical to curve an 8i/9i as much as you'd curve a 4i/fairway, so your likelihood of that miss is smaller. 

 

Seems to me if you're aiming *at* the water counting on a very shallow layup zone between the creek and the lake, you're trying to play it safe but you're not actually playing it safe. Long or short on the layup kills you.

 

Aim farther right and take enough club to be SURE to fly beyond the creek, and long doesn't hurt you on that line. You might have a slightly longer approach, but it seems like being farther right also gives you a slightly better angle into the green anyway.

[SNIPERBBB]

Really I think your ideal layup location is between the #2 and that object in the middle of the fairway is. That's the widest area after the #1 zone.

[596]

I'd play my second in one of two ways.

 

1. Long iron/hybrid aiming at your red number 2.  Looks like plenty of room but also depends on the wind direction and feel for that day.

2. I'd aim for a landing spot right on those 2 people in the fairway.  Further up then your number 1 but still within an easy short iron. Should be able to hit this spot with a high percentage since it's still a 6 or 7 iron.

 

My #2 leaves a better angle too the green then your number one and higher percentage then going up the right with a long iron or hybrid.  The 8 or 9 iron to your #1 spot is a bit too conservative given the next shot over all the water.

[ParHunter]

The width between the water and the OOB is 38 yards at its narrowest point. That’s why I normally either go long #2 or short #1 .

When I go for option 1 I would normally not aim for the water but for the centre of the fairway but my bad shots with my irons are draws that fly longer then normal - so they can get me into the water.

 

I guess I will need to keep track of my scores on this hole this summer and alternate my approach. This should be an easy hole but it is easy to pick up penalty shots on this one.

[NJBigFish22]

Without knowing the distances remaining from either lay up spot and how consistent you are from that distance it is hard to say what is best option.  Personally I would go for the green in 2, aiming for the bunker near the cart path to the right of the green.  If I clear the water, it becomes a scoring hole, if I knock it in the water, my drop is at where #1 would be and still have chance to make par.  

[pinhigh27]

7 minutes ago, ParHunter said:

The width between the water and the OOB is 38 yards at its narrowest point. That’s why I normally either go long #2 or short #1 .

When I go for option 1 I would normally not aim for the water but for the centre of the fairway but my bad shots with my irons are draws that fly longer then normal - so they can get me into the water.

 

I guess I will need to keep track of my scores on this hole this summer and alternate my approach. This should be an easy hole but it is easy to pick up penalty shots on this one.

Would pick a club where longest worst shot can't get into water. Looks kinda tough in this circumstance due to the path though. 

[ParHunter]

23 minutes ago, pinhigh27 said:

Would pick a club where longest worst shot can't get into water. Looks kinda tough in this circumstance due to the path though. 

If you are referring to option #1. That is not a path but a ditch that crosses the fairway. So yes you need to get the distance right.

[skraly]

Option 2 but instead of a long iron or wood use a 6-7 iron on the same line.  You’re unlikely to severely hook or slice that club unless you hit a very poor second.  That should be the widest part of that fairway.  This will leave 100 yds. or less to the middle of the green. You’ll have a better angle to the green and only a small piece of the pond to hit over.  This seems the safest option to me.  On days when you’re hitting the long iron/hybrid/woods particularly well you can always choose to bite off a little more.

[betarhoalphadelta]

2 hours ago, ParHunter said:

The width between the water and the OOB is 38 yards at its narrowest point. That’s why I normally either go long #2 or short #1 .

When I go for option 1 I would normally not aim for the water but for the centre of the fairway but my bad shots with my irons are draws that fly longer then normal - so they can get me into the water.

 

I guess I will need to keep track of my scores on this hole this summer and alternate my approach. This should be an easy hole but it is easy to pick up penalty shots on this one.

 

Then maybe aim for the right side/edge of the fairway? 

 

Granted, I'm a high-cap that can turn even a 9i into a soaring pull hook 20y long and 40y left of target... But generally that means that I play for a draw to hopefully protect from the big hook. 

 

If your miss is a long draw, then aim farther right. Even if you double-cross and push a shot... You're in the rough, not the water, unless you go WAY right to OB...

 

Again I feel like you're playing safe... But not actually playing safe. You know your tendencies but you're not giving those tendencies enough respect.

 

Take the water out of play. If you take the water out of play, out of the hundreds of times you've played the hole, how many do you actually think you'd end up OB right with a long-left miss?

[SNIPERBBB]

Since you say that going long from #1 brings into play a chip that flirts with go into the pond because you have to go long to make sure you dont go in the water, that basically rules #1 out for you. Or at least going for the green on your third shot as you might be better off hitting your third right of the green.

[RichieHunt]

The best play is #2.  Just don't be afraid to take a conservative line.  Going in the right rough really doesn't hurt you as badly as you think, particularly compared to laying up short.

 

If you execute poorly and end up int he drink, that's not a strategy problem it's an execution problem.  And you could have used option #1 and executed those shots poorly and taken a higher score.  Bad execution is just bad execution and can happen on any strategy.

 

That's unless you have a horrendous lie or some other reason as to why you have no confidence in the shot like being lousy with whatever club you want to use on option #2.

 

If you have a real problem with whatever club(s) you use for option #2, then it's okay to take option #1.  But realize that you are losing strokes by not being competent enough with the club(s) needed on option #2.

 

 

 

 

RH

[trilerian]

The width of the fairway at the tee shot landing zone looks to be just as wide as the chute between the water and ob.  If you can hit it with a driver you should be able to hit it with a 7i.  On days where I am not feeling it, I probably hit a 7i up the chute.  On days where I am hitting it well, I probably play a 4w to what looks like rocks and try to draw/hook it in towards the green, hoping to roll on or leave it right of the green.  It's unlikely I take either of your lines, I just don't like option 1 and if I were afraid of hooking a 4i into the pond with option 2, why wouldn't I just take enough club to be past the water?

 

But, most likely I go with 7i up the chute.  I'd would have to be hitting really well or having a really bad round to go the 4w route.  Bad rounds make me tilt a bit, so hero shots are more likely... 

[Krt22]

 Judging roll out in the fairway is never a sure thing, esp since you say plenty of balls end up in the water anyway. #2 with a very conservative line is fine if you have a reasonable directional miss, if not mid iron in between  1 and 2 doesn't seem any less risky than 1 given many players directional miss isn't much larger than their length variability.  It leaves you some margin with length, but still gives you a wedge into the green. 

[TLUBulldogGolf]

Why layup short of the water when you only need a short iron? Should be able to fit a 6 iron or something into that fairway without issue. 

 

Ideally you'd be going for it in 2 as long and right look to be fine. 

[rp4golf]

Seems as if it's a no-brainer to me.

My current home course has three nines and has a similar situation regarding a fairly short par-4, in which a pond fronts the entirety of the front of the green.
To me the obvious play is a mid- to short-iron lay-up short of the water (depending on the teebox), and a short-iron or wedge to the green.
But it seems every time I play that course at least one of my playing partners go for the green. Most of the time it results in a ball in the water, or at best wildly missing the green. Have yet to see anyone make an eagle even if they do manage to hit it on, while mostly I see a lot of 6s and 8s and worse.
Me, I'd rather take my safe 3 to 5 and move along. The risk-reward just doesn't seem a viable option.

And in your case the risks are even more penal - as the further you hit it, the greater chance of losing 2 shots or more by hitting it in the water or OB. Just doesn't seen to be a hole to be screwing around with.
😎

Edited June 11, 2021 by rp4golf

[CasualLie]

I wouldn't over think it.  1 shot penalty in water, two shots OB, so favor the left with as much distance as you can.  Depending on wind, I am probably thinking tee it low and squeeze a fade down the left.  Once committed, that is all I am thinking about, not guarding against the "what ifs".  I might be in the water a few times, but it still looks like with a drop I can go at the green, get lucky and save par or make bogey.  Regardless, I am not playing any shot that flirts with the right.

[scooterhd2]

I dislike option 2 as I dont feel comfortable hitting a 4 iron or hybrid into that tight of a window. Too easy to push or pull one into trouble. I might as well go for the green with a 5 wood. 

 

Option 1 is not an easy route either. Yes, the width of the fairway there is welcoming, but the front to back distance from the creek to the pond seems unnerving, especially when you cant scope exactly how far you have to the water. The thing I hate most if flushing an iron right on my line, to find it was a penalty. I'd feel better grabbing a club I feel confident in like a 6 or 7 iron and aiming for the center of the fairway. Essentially right at that (cart?) in your first image Obviously, it is more narrow, but if you catch one heavy or really flush one its not going to hurt you. I've copied your landing area for zone 1, and my new target area is twice as big, albeit more narrow. The 3rd shot is shorter, with less carry over water, and has a better angle into the green. 

 

 

[Asics10]

You need to do some homework in order to make a good decision. 

Find out these exact yardage:

- front of Creek to center of green

- back of creek to center of green

- front of pond to center of green

Write them down or memorize them. 

When playing laser the pin, add or subtract for front pin, back pin. Then subtract your creek and pond numbers and make your decision from there. Pick your line based on the numbers.