Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

[iteachgolf]

The mythical 4 hdcp probably plays in the high 70's-low 80's range, I believe about once every four rounds.. I don't know enough about how the USGA arrives at the numbers, but that is my guess. The 72nd ranked LPGA player is Maude-Aimee Leblanc, who has a scoring avg of 72. These are tournament scores, not weighted in any way for a hdcp. Every tiny, stupid little rule followed, every putt made, no matter the length, and witnesses to every shot played. Match any 4 hdcp and Ms. Leblanc, at any length, and she owns him. The harder the course, the bigger her advantage.

 

I am a 3 handicap right now with multiple tournament scores included in my handicap (makes a big difference).

 

I am fortunate enough to play with pros at my home track fairly frequently and feel I have a good personal barometer on how people "stack up" in general. I have played with with a few PGA Pros and a few Web.com Pros. I have only ever played with one LPGA Pro and it was pretty fun. On my best day I would be confident I could hang from the long tees, as that would be my only advantage. 69 is my personal low, shot that 3 times now and I know that an LPGA pro has a gear below that in the bag.

 

I think I have told this story on here before in a different thread, but I could be mistaken. The group was the LPGA player, a Pro who has a journeyman's resume (PGA, Web.com, US Open, minis, college stud) myself and a low handicap player who is a member at our course; maybe a 6 or 7 handicap? The member is a loudmouth and decided that he could beat the LPGA player if she played back with the guys. LOL Game on.

 

Tough to remember scores and such, but she waxed him in matchplay. If I had to guess strokes she would've popped him by 9+ shots. I played pretty well that day and would've been a good match for her had we played. My drives were definitely 20-30 yards past her as she isn't a long hitter but my god she was a ball striker. Didn't really miss and her putting was ridiculous.

 

Personally I think who is playing who would make a significant difference especially depending on what length of a course is played. Tip it out on a good day, I think from my experience I would have a chance against an LPGA player. Maybe I can talk to my buddy and set up a match? :)

No offense, but your personal best is 69 and you think you have a chance? Where is the logic there?

 

Because a decent number of girls ranked around 100 in scoring average have shot multiple rounds in the 80s from only 6300 yards and most have shot multiple round in the upper 70s. From 7,000 on a bad day they could certainly shoot mid 80s. A guy who ha shot 69 multiple times form the tips who is a low single digit with tournament experience absolutely would have a chance against a player ranked 75+ in scoring average

[North Texas]

The mythical 4 hdcp probably plays in the high 70's-low 80's range, I believe about once every four rounds.. I don't know enough about how the USGA arrives at the numbers, but that is my guess. The 72nd ranked LPGA player is Maude-Aimee Leblanc, who has a scoring avg of 72. These are tournament scores, not weighted in any way for a hdcp. Every tiny, stupid little rule followed, every putt made, no matter the length, and witnesses to every shot played. Match any 4 hdcp and Ms. Leblanc, at any length, and she owns him. The harder the course, the bigger her advantage.

 

I am a 3 handicap right now with multiple tournament scores included in my handicap (makes a big difference).

 

I am fortunate enough to play with pros at my home track fairly frequently and feel I have a good personal barometer on how people "stack up" in general. I have played with with a few PGA Pros and a few Web.com Pros. I have only ever played with one LPGA Pro and it was pretty fun. On my best day I would be confident I could hang from the long tees, as that would be my only advantage. 69 is my personal low, shot that 3 times now and I know that an LPGA pro has a gear below that in the bag.

 

I think I have told this story on here before in a different thread, but I could be mistaken. The group was the LPGA player, a Pro who has a journeyman's resume (PGA, Web.com, US Open, minis, college stud) myself and a low handicap player who is a member at our course; maybe a 6 or 7 handicap? The member is a loudmouth and decided that he could beat the LPGA player if she played back with the guys. LOL Game on.

 

Tough to remember scores and such, but she waxed him in matchplay. If I had to guess strokes she would've popped him by 9+ shots. I played pretty well that day and would've been a good match for her had we played. My drives were definitely 20-30 yards past her as she isn't a long hitter but my god she was a ball striker. Didn't really miss and her putting was ridiculous.

 

Personally I think who is playing who would make a significant difference especially depending on what length of a course is played. Tip it out on a good day, I think from my experience I would have a chance against an LPGA player. Maybe I can talk to my buddy and set up a match? :)

No offense, but your personal best is 69 and you think you have a chance? Where is the logic there?

 

Because a decent number of girls ranked around 100 in scoring average have shot multiple rounds in the 80s from only 6300 yards and most have shot multiple round in the upper 70s. From 7,000 on a bad day they could certainly shoot mid 80s. A guy who ha shot 69 multiple times form the tips who is a low single digit with tournament experience absolutely would have a chance against a player ranked 75+ in scoring average

 

Well I had to look this up to see if you were right. The 100th ranked LPGA player has shot only 3 rounds over 75 all year. Two rounds of 76 and 1 round of 77.

[North Texas]

The mythical 4 hdcp probably plays in the high 70's-low 80's range, I believe about once every four rounds.. I don't know enough about how the USGA arrives at the numbers, but that is my guess. The 72nd ranked LPGA player is Maude-Aimee Leblanc, who has a scoring avg of 72. These are tournament scores, not weighted in any way for a hdcp. Every tiny, stupid little rule followed, every putt made, no matter the length, and witnesses to every shot played. Match any 4 hdcp and Ms. Leblanc, at any length, and she owns him. The harder the course, the bigger her advantage.

 

I am a 3 handicap right now with multiple tournament scores included in my handicap (makes a big difference).

 

I am fortunate enough to play with pros at my home track fairly frequently and feel I have a good personal barometer on how people "stack up" in general. I have played with with a few PGA Pros and a few Web.com Pros. I have only ever played with one LPGA Pro and it was pretty fun. On my best day I would be confident I could hang from the long tees, as that would be my only advantage. 69 is my personal low, shot that 3 times now and I know that an LPGA pro has a gear below that in the bag.

 

I think I have told this story on here before in a different thread, but I could be mistaken. The group was the LPGA player, a Pro who has a journeyman's resume (PGA, Web.com, US Open, minis, college stud) myself and a low handicap player who is a member at our course; maybe a 6 or 7 handicap? The member is a loudmouth and decided that he could beat the LPGA player if she played back with the guys. LOL Game on.

 

Tough to remember scores and such, but she waxed him in matchplay. If I had to guess strokes she would've popped him by 9+ shots. I played pretty well that day and would've been a good match for her had we played. My drives were definitely 20-30 yards past her as she isn't a long hitter but my god she was a ball striker. Didn't really miss and her putting was ridiculous.

 

Personally I think who is playing who would make a significant difference especially depending on what length of a course is played. Tip it out on a good day, I think from my experience I would have a chance against an LPGA player. Maybe I can talk to my buddy and set up a match? :)

No offense, but your personal best is 69 and you think you have a chance? Where is the logic there?

 

Because a decent number of girls ranked around 100 in scoring average have shot multiple rounds in the 80s from only 6300 yards and most have shot multiple round in the upper 70s. From 7,000 on a bad day they could certainly shoot mid 80s. A guy who ha shot 69 multiple times form the tips who is a low single digit with tournament experience absolutely would have a chance against a player ranked 75+ in scoring average

 

The 150th ranked player has 6 rounds of 78 or higher out of 37 with 3 78's and 3 over 80. And is averaging right at 74.

[PowderedToastMan]

The mythical 4 hdcp probably plays in the high 70's-low 80's range, I believe about once every four rounds.. I don't know enough about how the USGA arrives at the numbers, but that is my guess. The 72nd ranked LPGA player is Maude-Aimee Leblanc, who has a scoring avg of 72. These are tournament scores, not weighted in any way for a hdcp. Every tiny, stupid little rule followed, every putt made, no matter the length, and witnesses to every shot played. Match any 4 hdcp and Ms. Leblanc, at any length, and she owns him. The harder the course, the bigger her advantage.

 

I am a 3 handicap right now with multiple tournament scores included in my handicap (makes a big difference).

 

I am fortunate enough to play with pros at my home track fairly frequently and feel I have a good personal barometer on how people "stack up" in general. I have played with with a few PGA Pros and a few Web.com Pros. I have only ever played with one LPGA Pro and it was pretty fun. On my best day I would be confident I could hang from the long tees, as that would be my only advantage. 69 is my personal low, shot that 3 times now and I know that an LPGA pro has a gear below that in the bag.

 

I think I have told this story on here before in a different thread, but I could be mistaken. The group was the LPGA player, a Pro who has a journeyman's resume (PGA, Web.com, US Open, minis, college stud) myself and a low handicap player who is a member at our course; maybe a 6 or 7 handicap? The member is a loudmouth and decided that he could beat the LPGA player if she played back with the guys. LOL Game on.

 

Tough to remember scores and such, but she waxed him in matchplay. If I had to guess strokes she would've popped him by 9+ shots. I played pretty well that day and would've been a good match for her had we played. My drives were definitely 20-30 yards past her as she isn't a long hitter but my god she was a ball striker. Didn't really miss and her putting was ridiculous.

 

Personally I think who is playing who would make a significant difference especially depending on what length of a course is played. Tip it out on a good day, I think from my experience I would have a chance against an LPGA player. Maybe I can talk to my buddy and set up a match? :)

No offense, but your personal best is 69 and you think you have a chance? Where is the logic there?

 

Because a decent number of girls ranked around 100 in scoring average have shot multiple rounds in the 80s from only 6300 yards and most have shot multiple round in the upper 70s. From 7,000 on a bad day they could certainly shoot mid 80s. A guy who ha shot 69 multiple times form the tips who is a low single digit with tournament experience absolutely would have a chance against a player ranked 75+ in scoring average

iTeach, I'm surprised by the amount of fallacies you've managed to combine into one post, coming from a man who deciphers data so well.

 

Are you going to put your money on a 3 cap who has shot 69 in a casual round against an LPGA Tour player in the 75-100 range based on the idea that in an LPGA Tournament, they've shot 80 before? Forgetting the idea that the 3 cap shoots in the 80's regularly in practice rounds, not tournaments? Of course there's a chance. But it's just a chance. The odds aren't high. Would you argue that a 3 cap has a chance against a 75-100 player on the champions tour? They've shot in the 80's and don't hit it that long.

[iteachgolf]

The mythical 4 hdcp probably plays in the high 70's-low 80's range, I believe about once every four rounds.. I don't know enough about how the USGA arrives at the numbers, but that is my guess. The 72nd ranked LPGA player is Maude-Aimee Leblanc, who has a scoring avg of 72. These are tournament scores, not weighted in any way for a hdcp. Every tiny, stupid little rule followed, every putt made, no matter the length, and witnesses to every shot played. Match any 4 hdcp and Ms. Leblanc, at any length, and she owns him. The harder the course, the bigger her advantage.

 

I am a 3 handicap right now with multiple tournament scores included in my handicap (makes a big difference).

 

I am fortunate enough to play with pros at my home track fairly frequently and feel I have a good personal barometer on how people "stack up" in general. I have played with with a few PGA Pros and a few Web.com Pros. I have only ever played with one LPGA Pro and it was pretty fun. On my best day I would be confident I could hang from the long tees, as that would be my only advantage. 69 is my personal low, shot that 3 times now and I know that an LPGA pro has a gear below that in the bag.

 

I think I have told this story on here before in a different thread, but I could be mistaken. The group was the LPGA player, a Pro who has a journeyman's resume (PGA, Web.com, US Open, minis, college stud) myself and a low handicap player who is a member at our course; maybe a 6 or 7 handicap? The member is a loudmouth and decided that he could beat the LPGA player if she played back with the guys. LOL Game on.

 

Tough to remember scores and such, but she waxed him in matchplay. If I had to guess strokes she would've popped him by 9+ shots. I played pretty well that day and would've been a good match for her had we played. My drives were definitely 20-30 yards past her as she isn't a long hitter but my god she was a ball striker. Didn't really miss and her putting was ridiculous.

 

Personally I think who is playing who would make a significant difference especially depending on what length of a course is played. Tip it out on a good day, I think from my experience I would have a chance against an LPGA player. Maybe I can talk to my buddy and set up a match? :)

No offense, but your personal best is 69 and you think you have a chance? Where is the logic there?

 

Because a decent number of girls ranked around 100 in scoring average have shot multiple rounds in the 80s from only 6300 yards and most have shot multiple round in the upper 70s. From 7,000 on a bad day they could certainly shoot mid 80s. A guy who ha shot 69 multiple times form the tips who is a low single digit with tournament experience absolutely would have a chance against a player ranked 75+ in scoring average

iTeach, I'm surprised by the amount of fallacies you've managed to combine into one post, coming from a man who deciphers data so well.

 

Are you going to put your money on a 3 cap who has shot 69 in a casual round against an LPGA Tour player in the 75-100 range based on the idea that in an LPGA Tournament, they've shot 80 before? Forgetting the idea that the 3 cap shoots in the 80's regularly in practice rounds, not tournaments? Of course there's a chance. But it's just a chance. The odds aren't high. Would you argue that a 3 cap has a chance against a 75-100 player on the champions tour? They've shot in the 80's and don't hit it that long.

 

How are they fallacies? You implied he had zero chance. I'd give the 3 handicap with the ability to shoot 69 around a 5% chance of beating a LPGA tour player struggling to keep her card from 7,000 yards. I didn't say the 3 handicap would win more often I just said that he certainly could win. And wouldn't even have to play his best to do so. I've played with plenty of LPGA tour players and seen them shoot upper 70s from 6,900 yards way more often than you think of courses rated around 74. Which is exactly what a 3-4 handicap would do roughly 25% of the time. I'd guesstimate the LPGA player from all the way back would shoot 77 or higher roughly 20% of the time from 7,000 yards. Which means the player would have a 5% chance of beating her.

 

Average LPGA carry is 218 yards. Champions Tour is more like 250 carry. To compare those too is just dumb. Most low single digits could fly a hybrid past the average LPGA Tour players driver.

[iteachgolf]

The mythical 4 hdcp probably plays in the high 70's-low 80's range, I believe about once every four rounds.. I don't know enough about how the USGA arrives at the numbers, but that is my guess. The 72nd ranked LPGA player is Maude-Aimee Leblanc, who has a scoring avg of 72. These are tournament scores, not weighted in any way for a hdcp. Every tiny, stupid little rule followed, every putt made, no matter the length, and witnesses to every shot played. Match any 4 hdcp and Ms. Leblanc, at any length, and she owns him. The harder the course, the bigger her advantage.

 

I am a 3 handicap right now with multiple tournament scores included in my handicap (makes a big difference).

 

I am fortunate enough to play with pros at my home track fairly frequently and feel I have a good personal barometer on how people "stack up" in general. I have played with with a few PGA Pros and a few Web.com Pros. I have only ever played with one LPGA Pro and it was pretty fun. On my best day I would be confident I could hang from the long tees, as that would be my only advantage. 69 is my personal low, shot that 3 times now and I know that an LPGA pro has a gear below that in the bag.

 

I think I have told this story on here before in a different thread, but I could be mistaken. The group was the LPGA player, a Pro who has a journeyman's resume (PGA, Web.com, US Open, minis, college stud) myself and a low handicap player who is a member at our course; maybe a 6 or 7 handicap? The member is a loudmouth and decided that he could beat the LPGA player if she played back with the guys. LOL Game on.

 

Tough to remember scores and such, but she waxed him in matchplay. If I had to guess strokes she would've popped him by 9+ shots. I played pretty well that day and would've been a good match for her had we played. My drives were definitely 20-30 yards past her as she isn't a long hitter but my god she was a ball striker. Didn't really miss and her putting was ridiculous.

 

Personally I think who is playing who would make a significant difference especially depending on what length of a course is played. Tip it out on a good day, I think from my experience I would have a chance against an LPGA player. Maybe I can talk to my buddy and set up a match? :)

No offense, but your personal best is 69 and you think you have a chance? Where is the logic there?

 

Because a decent number of girls ranked around 100 in scoring average have shot multiple rounds in the 80s from only 6300 yards and most have shot multiple round in the upper 70s. From 7,000 on a bad day they could certainly shoot mid 80s. A guy who ha shot 69 multiple times form the tips who is a low single digit with tournament experience absolutely would have a chance against a player ranked 75+ in scoring average

 

Well I had to look this up to see if you were right. The 100th ranked LPGA player has shot only 3 rounds over 75 all year. Two rounds of 76 and 1 round of 77.

 

I know this player personally. Of course I'm right or I wouldn't have said it. She's ranked 102nd in scoring average and 105th in money.

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/amelia-lewis/88236/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

98th ranked

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/caroline-hedwall/93651/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

97th

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/jane-park/82867/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

95th

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/pk-kongkraphan/93474/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

And here's Morgan Pressel who is 77th

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/morgan-pressel/82827/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

 

I could go on and on showing players with multiple rounds in the 80s and a lot in the high 70s. On that same day from the back tee they'd have shot considerably higher.

[bruinsPATSirish]

I know this player personally. Of course I'm right or I wouldn't have said it. She's ranked 102nd in scoring average and 105th in money.

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/amelia-lewis/88236/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

98th ranked

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/caroline-hedwall/93651/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

97th

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/jane-park/82867/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

95th

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/pk-kongkraphan/93474/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

And here's Morgan Pressel who is 77th

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/morgan-pressel/82827/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

 

I could go on and on showing players with multiple rounds in the 80s and a lot in the high 70s. On that same day from the back tee they'd have shot considerably higher.

 

Like iTeach has touched on, the distance factor is being grossly under-valued here by many in my opinion like I suggested before.

 

Throw me on the course from 6,300 with a solid LPGA card holder and I don't think I stand a chance 95% percent of the time. Roll is back to 7,000 plus where she is hitting a bunch of fairway woods and hybrids against my irons... I think it's a significantly different ball game

[isaacbm]

Iteach

 

Sure I guess but at my home course from the back tee a 4 handicap will only break 80 1 in 3 times at best. Put a little wind or tough pins or tournament conditions and he's having trouble breaking 85. The course is rated 75.6.

 

Using Morgan Pressel as an example. Her handicap on all of the rounds posted (assuming using men's rating's of around 71/130 from 6400 would be close to +4. So she's 8-10 shots better than a 4.

 

I think anyone can beat anyone on a one-off day but the stars would have to line up perfectly.

 

To me, the thread should be more about "over a period of time" what handicap man could compete at the LPGA Level. I think it's pretty established the number would be a traveling +2 guy could be competitive at the 75-100 level. A 4 wouldn't crack the top 50 in my club championship. Hell, a 1.4 didn't make the championship flight!!

[iteachgolf]

Iteach

 

Sure I guess but at my home course from the back tee a 4 handicap will only break 80 1 in 3 times at best. Put a little wind or tough pins or tournament conditions and he's having trouble breaking 85. The course is rated 75.6.

 

Using Morgan Pressel as an example. Her handicap on all of the rounds posted (assuming using men's rating's of around 71/130 from 6400 would be close to +4. So she's 8-10 shots better than a 4.

 

I think anyone can beat anyone on a one-off day but the stars would have to line up perfectly.

 

To me, the thread should be more about "over a period of time" what handicap man could compete at the LPGA Level. I think it's pretty established the number would be a traveling +2 guy could be competitive at the 75-100 level. A 4 wouldn't crack the top 50 in my club championship. Hell, a 1.4 didn't make the championship flight!!

 

And Morgan Pressel shot in the 80s multiple times from 6300-6400 yards. It happens. On many courses I play she couldn't reach the fairway on some holes. She'd shoot high 70s pretty often and would shoot in the 80s. There are plenty of 4s who shoot 75 1/6 rounds on these courses. Every round they shoot in the mid 70s they'd have a chance. A few years ago Morgan's driver carry was like 212 yards. She's one of the ones literally couldn't reach a couple par 4s on a 7,000 yard course. It would depend on the player, both the male and the female. There are 4s who hit it short and struggle on long golf courses. And there are 4s who hit it 290 who hit 10 greens and stay out of trouble for the most part with mediocre short games. I didn't say a 4 would be competitive. I said the guy who is a 3 who has shot 69 multiple times from the back tees would have about a 5% chance of beating many players in that 75-100 range. Especially the short ones. Remember 218 yards is the AVERAGE carry with driver, meaning there are quite a few who fly it much shorter. You have girls that'd have to hit driver on long par 3s with forced carries. Like I said it wouldn't affect all LPGA players the same and not all low single digits are created equally. And even then I'm only giving the guy in the perfect situation a 5% chance but he certainly has a chance and would win occasionally

[isaacbm]

Iteach

 

Sure I guess but at my home course from the back tee a 4 handicap will only break 80 1 in 3 times at best. Put a little wind or tough pins or tournament conditions and he's having trouble breaking 85. The course is rated 75.6.

 

Using Morgan Pressel as an example. Her handicap on all of the rounds posted (assuming using men's rating's of around 71/130 from 6400 would be close to +4. So she's 8-10 shots better than a 4.

 

I think anyone can beat anyone on a one-off day but the stars would have to line up perfectly.

 

To me, the thread should be more about "over a period of time" what handicap man could compete at the LPGA Level. I think it's pretty established the number would be a traveling +2 guy could be competitive at the 75-100 level. A 4 wouldn't crack the top 50 in my club championship. Hell, a 1.4 didn't make the championship flight!!

 

And Morgan Pressel shot in the 80s multiple times from 6300-6400 yards. It happens. On many courses I play she couldn't reach the fairway on some holes. She'd shoot high 70s pretty often and would shoot in the 80s. There are plenty of 4s who shoot 75 1/6 rounds on these courses. Every round they shoot in the mid 70s they'd have a chance. A few years ago Morgan's driver carry was like 212 yards. She's one of the ones literally couldn't reach a couple par 4s on a 7,000 yard course. It would depend on the player, both the male and the female. There are 4s who hit it short and struggle on long golf courses. And there are 4s who hit it 290 who hit 10 greens and stay out of trouble for the most part with mediocre short games. I didn't say a 4 would be competitive. I said the guy who is a 3 who has shot 69 multiple times from the back tees would have about a 5% chance of beating many players in that 75-100 range. Especially the short ones. Remember 218 yards is the AVERAGE carry with driver, meaning there are quite a few who fly it much shorter. You have girls that'd have to hit driver on long par 3s with forced carries. Like I said it wouldn't affect all LPGA players the same and not all low single digits are created equally. And even then I'm only giving the guy in the perfect situation a 5% chance but he certainly has a chance and would win occasionally

We're not really disagreeing. I just think the entire premise of the thread is stupid. The only way any of this is relevant is if you're setting up a match and are trying to handicap it. Possible this, possible that? Who cares. I just want to know what people would be willing to put on the line on a regular basis if they were going to play a match.

 

What's the actual average difference in ability (handicap ) and how many stokes would one need to play the other day in and day out.

 

This year, I've shot 61 and also 82. Am I better or worse than the average LPGA Tour player? You can't tell from those numbers. A larger sample size is needed and more info about those rounds would also be needed.

 

I didn't see that you said 5% originally. And I think you were just making the point that it is "possible." But is a person going to place a bet based on the guy having a 5% chance? I assume not.

 

Again, I'm not disagreeing. We pretty much both understand what the actual average level would be.

 

And this is not directed at you but I think the whole "well this one time he shot... " is not the way to come up with a good answer.

 

At 7000 yards, I'd take Morgan Pressel giving the club 4-handicap 2 shots per side if they played 4 rounds in a row for $500 per round. Over one round? Maybe I'd only want to bet $100. Over 20? I'd bet $2500 per round.

[PowderedToastMan]

Iteach

 

Sure I guess but at my home course from the back tee a 4 handicap will only break 80 1 in 3 times at best. Put a little wind or tough pins or tournament conditions and he's having trouble breaking 85. The course is rated 75.6.

 

Using Morgan Pressel as an example. Her handicap on all of the rounds posted (assuming using men's rating's of around 71/130 from 6400 would be close to +4. So she's 8-10 shots better than a 4.

 

I think anyone can beat anyone on a one-off day but the stars would have to line up perfectly.

 

To me, the thread should be more about "over a period of time" what handicap man could compete at the LPGA Level. I think it's pretty established the number would be a traveling +2 guy could be competitive at the 75-100 level. A 4 wouldn't crack the top 50 in my club championship. Hell, a 1.4 didn't make the championship flight!!

 

And Morgan Pressel shot in the 80s multiple times from 6300-6400 yards. It happens. On many courses I play she couldn't reach the fairway on some holes. She'd shoot high 70s pretty often and would shoot in the 80s. There are plenty of 4s who shoot 75 1/6 rounds on these courses. Every round they shoot in the mid 70s they'd have a chance. A few years ago Morgan's driver carry was like 212 yards. She's one of the ones literally couldn't reach a couple par 4s on a 7,000 yard course. It would depend on the player, both the male and the female. There are 4s who hit it short and struggle on long golf courses. And there are 4s who hit it 290 who hit 10 greens and stay out of trouble for the most part with mediocre short games. I didn't say a 4 would be competitive. I said the guy who is a 3 who has shot 69 multiple times from the back tees would have about a 5% chance of beating many players in that 75-100 range. Especially the short ones. Remember 218 yards is the AVERAGE carry with driver, meaning there are quite a few who fly it much shorter. You have girls that'd have to hit driver on long par 3s with forced carries. Like I said it wouldn't affect all LPGA players the same and not all low single digits are created equally. And even then I'm only giving the guy in the perfect situation a 5% chance but he certainly has a chance and would win occasionally

We're not really disagreeing. I just think the entire premise of the thread is stupid. The only way any of this is relevant is if you're setting up a match and are trying to handicap it. Possible this, possible that? Who cares. I just want to know what people would be willing to put on the line on a regular basis if they were going to play a match.

 

What's the actual average difference in ability (handicap ) and how many stokes would one need to play the other day in and day out.

 

This year, I've shot 61 and also 82. Am I better or worse than the average LPGA Tour player? You can't tell from those numbers. A larger sample size is needed and more info about those rounds would also be needed.

 

I didn't see that you said 5% originally. And I think you were just making the point that it is "possible." But is a person going to place a bet based on the guy having a 5% chance? I assume not.

 

Again, I'm not disagreeing. We pretty much both understand what the actual average level would be.

 

And this is not directed at you but I think the whole "well this one time he shot... " is not the way to come up with a good answer.

 

At 7000 yards, I'd take Morgan Pressel giving the club 4-handicap 2 shots per side if they played 4 rounds in a row for $500 per round. Over one round? Maybe I'd only want to bet $100. Over 20? I'd bet $2500 per round.

iTeach, I don't think we are really disagreeing all that much either. I just misunderstood you thinking you thought the chances were good, not 5%.

[PowderedToastMan]

I know this player personally. Of course I'm right or I wouldn't have said it. She's ranked 102nd in scoring average and 105th in money.

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/amelia-lewis/88236/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

98th ranked

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/caroline-hedwall/93651/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

97th

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/jane-park/82867/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

95th

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/pk-kongkraphan/93474/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

And here's Morgan Pressel who is 77th

 

http://www.lpga.com/players/morgan-pressel/82827/results#playerTabOptions_top

 

 

I could go on and on showing players with multiple rounds in the 80s and a lot in the high 70s. On that same day from the back tee they'd have shot considerably higher.

 

Like iTeach has touched on, the distance factor is being grossly under-valued here by many in my opinion like I suggested before.

 

Throw me on the course from 6,300 with a solid LPGA card holder and I don't think I stand a chance 95% percent of the time. Roll is back to 7,000 plus where she is hitting a bunch of fairway woods and hybrids against my irons... I think it's a significantly different ball game

Your chances are better, but I'm still picking her.

[cxx]

The idea of holding a contest on a golf course which one of the competitors can not reach the fairway on one of the holes seems unsportsmanlike. It seems like you could contrive a set of tee boxes and course markings that would eliminate the possibility of any golfer finishing. Aside from the carry required from the tee box, golf courses are designed to be playable by people of different skill levels and length. It seems that this tack reduces the comparison to the absurd, although it is often seen here.

 

I would prefer in these imaginary contests that we stipulate that the competitors all have a fair chance of reaching the fairway off the tee on our imaginary course.

[iteachgolf]

The idea of holding a contest on a golf course which one of the competitors can not reach the fairway on one of the holes seems unsportsmanlike. It seems like you could contrive a set of tee boxes and course markings that would eliminate the possibility of any golfer finishing. Aside from the carry required from the tee box, golf courses are designed to be playable by people of different skill levels and length. It seems that this tack reduces the comparison to the absurd, although it is often seen here.

 

I would prefer in these imaginary contests that we stipulate that the competitors all have a fair chance of reaching the fairway off the tee on our imaginary course.

 

In the US Open at Bethlage a bunch of pro's couldn't reach some fairways. Just means you're playing out of the rough. It's nobody else's fault except the player that they barely carry it over 200 yards. I fly it 265 and have played courses I can't fly it to the fairway. I don't cry about it. It's part of golf, distance is a part of the game

[bruinsPATSirish]

I know this player personally. Of course I'm right or I wouldn't have said it. She's ranked 102nd in scoring average and 105th in money.

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

98th ranked

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

97th

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

95th

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

And here's Morgan Pressel who is 77th

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

 

I could go on and on showing players with multiple rounds in the 80s and a lot in the high 70s. On that same day from the back tee they'd have shot considerably higher.

 

Like iTeach has touched on, the distance factor is being grossly under-valued here by many in my opinion like I suggested before.

 

Throw me on the course from 6,300 with a solid LPGA card holder and I don't think I stand a chance 95% percent of the time. Roll is back to 7,000 plus where she is hitting a bunch of fairway woods and hybrids against my irons... I think it's a significantly different ball game

Your chances are better, but I'm still picking her.

 

Very good. What would be your reasoning?

[PowderedToastMan]

I know this player personally. Of course I'm right or I wouldn't have said it. She's ranked 102nd in scoring average and 105th in money.

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

98th ranked

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

97th

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

95th

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

And here's Morgan Pressel who is 77th

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

 

I could go on and on showing players with multiple rounds in the 80s and a lot in the high 70s. On that same day from the back tee they'd have shot considerably higher.

 

Like iTeach has touched on, the distance factor is being grossly under-valued here by many in my opinion like I suggested before.

 

Throw me on the course from 6,300 with a solid LPGA card holder and I don't think I stand a chance 95% percent of the time. Roll is back to 7,000 plus where she is hitting a bunch of fairway woods and hybrids against my irons... I think it's a significantly different ball game

Your chances are better, but I'm still picking her.

 

Very good. What would be your reasoning?

If the LPGA held an event at a 7000 + yard course, I still wouldn't pick Michelle Wie. Why would I pick a 3 cap?

[bruinsPATSirish]

I know this player personally. Of course I'm right or I wouldn't have said it. She's ranked 102nd in scoring average and 105th in money.

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

98th ranked

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

97th

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

95th

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

And here's Morgan Pressel who is 77th

 

http://www.lpga.com/...rTabOptions_top

 

 

I could go on and on showing players with multiple rounds in the 80s and a lot in the high 70s. On that same day from the back tee they'd have shot considerably higher.

 

Like iTeach has touched on, the distance factor is being grossly under-valued here by many in my opinion like I suggested before.

 

Throw me on the course from 6,300 with a solid LPGA card holder and I don't think I stand a chance 95% percent of the time. Roll is back to 7,000 plus where she is hitting a bunch of fairway woods and hybrids against my irons... I think it's a significantly different ball game

Your chances are better, but I'm still picking her.

 

Very good. What would be your reasoning?

If the LPGA held an event at a 7000 + yard course, I still wouldn't pick Michelle Wie. Why would I pick a 3 cap?

 

I am not sure what your point is

[PowderedToastMan]

She hits it long and is much better than you.

[bruinsPATSirish]

She hits it long and is much better than you.

 

Shes averaging 261 this year...

 

In her last 12 official tournament rounds she has ranged from 70-77 on courses in the 6,400 yard range. That is the same as my home tracks "White" tees which are two boxes in front of my normal tees. I haven't played forward in awhile, I wonder what I could shoot from there?

[Shilgy]

She hits it long and is much better than you.

 

Shes averaging 261 this year...

 

In her last 12 official tournament rounds she has ranged from 70-77 on courses in the 6,400 yard range. That is the same as my home tracks "White" tees which are two boxes in front of my normal tees. I haven't played forward in awhile, I wonder what I could shoot from there?

About 4-5 over the rating on average.

[Shilgy]

Iteach a question from the bottom of the last page. You were doing fine until the last sentence. Your 5% matches my "maybe in in 20 if the stars align". But really? Most single digits fly hybrid over 250? Or are you saying they carry longer than 218? I think your average LPGA carry number is old. They have become much stronger and longer on average than 10 years ago. Champions tour number 76 is at 252 yards total. Not carry. Number 100 woman is 250 total. David Toms is only 19 yards longer than number 100 lady. Number 100 or so on the PGA tour all seem to have at least one 80's and a few 78's and 79's as well.

But I think we are all in agreement-sorta. :) A good 4-whatever the heck that is- might beat the #100 LPGA pro one out of 20 at best.

 

Edit-addition. I think the original premise was "would a 4 cap beat the LPGA #100". Now it has become "could he"? And how often. What cap "could" beat number 100 man on occasion? Scratch? +2? I see a few 80's and 78's and 79's.

[PowderedToastMan]

She hits it long and is much better than you.

 

Shes averaging 261 this year...

 

In her last 12 official tournament rounds she has ranged from 70-77 on courses in the 6,400 yard range. That is the same as my home tracks "White" tees which are two boxes in front of my normal tees. I haven't played forward in awhile, I wonder what I could shoot from there?

She doesn't hit driver every time my friend. Stinger 3 wood is her friend.

[m5power]

maybe at checkers or backammon

[iteachgolf]

Iteach a question from the bottom of the last page. You were doing fine until the last sentence. Your 5% matches my "maybe in in 20 if the stars align". But really? Most single digits fly hybrid over 250? Or are you saying they carry longer than 218? I think your average LPGA carry number is old. They have become much stronger and longer on average than 10 years ago. Champions tour number 76 is at 252 yards total. Not carry. Number 100 woman is 250 total. David Toms is only 19 yards longer than number 100 lady. Number 100 or so on the PGA tour all seem to have at least one 80's and a few 78's and 79's as well.

But I think we are all in agreement-sorta. :) A good 4-whatever the heck that is- might beat the #100 LPGA pro one out of 20 at best.

 

Edit-addition. I think the original premise was "would a 4 cap beat the LPGA #100". Now it has become "could he"? And how often. What cap "could" beat number 100 man on occasion? Scratch? +2? I see a few 80's and 78's and 79's.

 

I very clearly said the words carry and specifically used the 218 number which is accurate. The LPGA yardage stats are bogus. Just like Web.com. They aren't done with radar or shot link style. They don't factor in tee marker changes during tournament and are guesstimates by humans. And they generally play rock hard fairways with the tees up more days than not. The average player swings 92mph and the longest girls swing swing barely over 100mph with max around 105mph (Lexi is 103mph). 92 mph is what I swing a 7 iron.

[isaacbm]

Over 1 hole in any given round I'd say very likely. Over nine holes in any given round I'd say maybe a 20% chance. Over 18 holes in any given round I'd say a 5% chance. over a four round tournament with cameras and a gallery I'd say a .01 %chance. Over the entire tournament season on tour? I'd say the only chance would be if the LPGA tour player broke her leg... but still played with a cast on !

 

Taljing about a one off random chance is ridiculous. Let's say they're playing a match and during the match she gets a phone call that her parents both died in a car accident but she's not allowed to leave and must continue the match.

 

let's say the four handicap got struck by lightning and suddenly supercharged his muscles and can suddenly drive it 400 yards on a rope...

 

SO YOURE SAYING THERES A CHANCE!!!

 

A man with a travelling handicap of 4 is approximately six shots worse per round then the 75 to 80th ranked LPGA Tour player.

 

If my aunt had nuts she'd be my uncle.

[DavePelz4]

Jacqui Concolino shot an 81 in her first round at the Evian. She's 85th in the Rolex rankings, has 3 career top 10's and a scoring average of 72.02 this year. Could it happen, sure.

 

Would it happen consistently over the long run? Not a chance.

[Shilgy]

Iteach a question from the bottom of the last page. You were doing fine until the last sentence. Your 5% matches my "maybe in in 20 if the stars align". But really? Most single digits fly hybrid over 250? Or are you saying they carry longer than 218? I think your average LPGA carry number is old. They have become much stronger and longer on average than 10 years ago. Champions tour number 76 is at 252 yards total. Not carry. Number 100 woman is 250 total. David Toms is only 19 yards longer than number 100 lady. Number 100 or so on the PGA tour all seem to have at least one 80's and a few 78's and 79's as well.

But I think we are all in agreement-sorta. :) A good 4-whatever the heck that is- might beat the #100 LPGA pro one out of 20 at best.

 

Edit-addition. I think the original premise was "would a 4 cap beat the LPGA #100". Now it has become "could he"? And how often. What cap "could" beat number 100 man on occasion? Scratch? +2? I see a few 80's and 78's and 79's.

 

I very clearly said the words carry and specifically used the 218 number which is accurate. The LPGA yardage stats are bogus. Just like Web.com. They aren't done with radar or shot link style. They don't factor in tee marker changes during tournament and are guesstimates by humans. And they generally play rock hard fairways with the tees up more days than not. The average player swings 92mph and the longest girls swing swing barely over 100mph with max around 105mph (Lexi is 103mph). 92 mph is what I swing a 7 iron.

Congratulations-you have a higher swingspeed than the average tour pro. Brian Stuard is only a couple more mph swing speed with driver than Lexi per the, granted only occasionally tracked, radar stats for swing speed and his average distance is about identical to Lexi's. So it sounds fairly accurate to me. The mens tour must have rock hard fairways as well. But I think you have said that in the past as well. I could be wrong though.

 

I must have misread your post because you said they could fly hybrid past their driver but you just meant carry hybrid longer than they carry driver.

Average LPGA carry is 218 yards. Champions Tour is more like 250 carry. To compare those too is just dumb. Most low single digits could fly a hybrid past the average LPGA Tour players driver.

[Forged4ever]

As Maddie mentioned earlier, Suzann had a 70, 72 and Stacy had a 71, 73 at Isleworth from the Palmer tees(Par 72/7065yds+, 75.1/136), second only to the Tiger tees at 7500yds+.

 

Granted, these two are the creme de la creme, however they would anhialate and humiliate a 4~, lol.

 

Isaac, I was rollin in the chair laughing!!!

 

If I had a f***** brain I'd be dangerous :)

 

Nuts and brains Bro

 

The great dilineators in life, lmao

 

Oh Lord, I love this place :)

 

My Best,

RP

[juliette91]

Iteach

 

Sure I guess but at my home course from the back tee a 4 handicap will only break 80 1 in 3 times at best. Put a little wind or tough pins or tournament conditions and he's having trouble breaking 85. The course is rated 75.6.

 

Using Morgan Pressel as an example. Her handicap on all of the rounds posted (assuming using men's rating's of around 71/130 from 6400 would be close to +4. So she's 8-10 shots better than a 4.

 

I think anyone can beat anyone on a one-off day but the stars would have to line up perfectly.

 

To me, the thread should be more about "over a period of time" what handicap man could compete at the LPGA Level. I think it's pretty established the number would be a traveling +2 guy could be competitive at the 75-100 level. A 4 wouldn't crack the top 50 in my club championship. Hell, a 1.4 didn't make the championship flight!!

 

And Morgan Pressel shot in the 80s multiple times from 6300-6400 yards. It happens. On many courses I play she couldn't reach the fairway on some holes. She'd shoot high 70s pretty often and would shoot in the 80s. There are plenty of 4s who shoot 75 1/6 rounds on these courses. Every round they shoot in the mid 70s they'd have a chance. A few years ago Morgan's driver carry was like 212 yards. She's one of the ones literally couldn't reach a couple par 4s on a 7,000 yard course. It would depend on the player, both the male and the female. There are 4s who hit it short and struggle on long golf courses. And there are 4s who hit it 290 who hit 10 greens and stay out of trouble for the most part with mediocre short games. I didn't say a 4 would be competitive. I said the guy who is a 3 who has shot 69 multiple times from the back tees would have about a 5% chance of beating many players in that 75-100 range. Especially the short ones. Remember 218 yards is the AVERAGE carry with driver, meaning there are quite a few who fly it much shorter. You have girls that'd have to hit driver on long par 3s with forced carries. Like I said it wouldn't affect all LPGA players the same and not all low single digits are created equally. And even then I'm only giving the guy in the perfect situation a 5% chance but he certainly has a chance and would win occasionally

 

Not exactly: "Every round they shoot in the mid 70s they'd have a chance." You're forgetting that in statistical probability calculations you multiply the two probabilities together to obtain the probability of both happening. So if the 4 handicapper shoots 77 (assuming his stroke index is 4 and the course rating makes him a 5 at that course, very often the case for a 4 handicapper from even the second to hardest tees) one out of 6.4 times (I think that's the exact USGA website number) and she shoots 77 once every 15 rounds, the answer is not that he beats her once every 6 or so times. The answer is he beats her once every 90 or so times, 1/6x1/15.

 

Now some have pointed out the yardage difference as a considerable factor that I and others have not been taking into account. I think there is some validity to that idea. For example, years ago when Annika played in a pga tournament that had 7000 as the yardage she did not make the cut and was hitting 4 woods into greens that the men were hitting 6 irons into. So I totally get it that yardage is a factor to consider. But it has to be considered for both the male and the female golfer.

 

And that brings me to the point of who exactly is this mythical 4 capper. If he is a long hitter (say 265 carry or more) and a straight hitter too, he'd have to be a very mediocre putter or chipper or iron player to only have a 4 handicap. If so then his advantage off the tee doesn't really create a whole lot of change in the probabilities I calculated. And she would have to be the shorter hitting lpga pro too.

 

So what it all boils down to, methinks, is this: that the average 4 male handicap player against the average lpga tour player (say there are 125 who play each tournament so the average player would be number 63) would likely yield a high probability that the woman would beat the man. I'd say, giving due to the yardage factor, that instead of 1/90 times the man beats the lpga player, maybe more like 1 out of 10 times. Does that make it a slam dunk that the long male hitter who is a 4 will beat the average lpga player. No.

 

Someone said it here and I echo it, that it would likely take a male +2 or better, tournament tested, on a course that is at least 6850 yards, for there to be what I would consider a toss up stroke play match.

[nsxguy]

Iteach

 

Sure I guess but at my home course from the back tee a 4 handicap will only break 80 1 in 3 times at best. Put a little wind or tough pins or tournament conditions and he's having trouble breaking 85. The course is rated 75.6.

 

Using Morgan Pressel as an example. Her handicap on all of the rounds posted (assuming using men's rating's of around 71/130 from 6400 would be close to +4. So she's 8-10 shots better than a 4.

 

I think anyone can beat anyone on a one-off day but the stars would have to line up perfectly.

 

To me, the thread should be more about "over a period of time" what handicap man could compete at the LPGA Level. I think it's pretty established the number would be a traveling +2 guy could be competitive at the 75-100 level. A 4 wouldn't crack the top 50 in my club championship. Hell, a 1.4 didn't make the championship flight!!

 

And Morgan Pressel shot in the 80s multiple times from 6300-6400 yards. It happens. On many courses I play she couldn't reach the fairway on some holes. She'd shoot high 70s pretty often and would shoot in the 80s. There are plenty of 4s who shoot 75 1/6 rounds on these courses. Every round they shoot in the mid 70s they'd have a chance. A few years ago Morgan's driver carry was like 212 yards. She's one of the ones literally couldn't reach a couple par 4s on a 7,000 yard course. It would depend on the player, both the male and the female. There are 4s who hit it short and struggle on long golf courses. And there are 4s who hit it 290 who hit 10 greens and stay out of trouble for the most part with mediocre short games. I didn't say a 4 would be competitive. I said the guy who is a 3 who has shot 69 multiple times from the back tees would have about a 5% chance of beating many players in that 75-100 range. Especially the short ones. Remember 218 yards is the AVERAGE carry with driver, meaning there are quite a few who fly it much shorter. You have girls that'd have to hit driver on long par 3s with forced carries. Like I said it wouldn't affect all LPGA players the same and not all low single digits are created equally. And even then I'm only giving the guy in the perfect situation a 5% chance but he certainly has a chance and would win occasionally

 

Not exactly: "Every round they shoot in the mid 70s they'd have a chance." You're forgetting that in statistical probability calculations you multiply the two probabilities together to obtain the probability of both happening. So if the 4 handicapper shoots 77 (assuming his stroke index is 4 and the course rating makes him a 5 at that course, very often the case for a 4 handicapper from even the second to hardest tees) one out of 6.4 times (I think that's the exact USGA website number) and she shoots 77 once every 15 rounds, the answer is not that he beats her once every 6 or so times. The answer is he beats her once every 90 or so times, 1/6x1/15.

 

Now some have pointed out the yardage difference as a considerable factor that I and others have not been taking into account. I think there is some validity to that idea. For example, years ago when Annika played in a pga tournament that had 7000 as the yardage she did not make the cut and was hitting 4 woods into greens that the men were hitting 6 irons into. So I totally get it that yardage is a factor to consider. But it has to be considered for both the male and the female golfer.

 

And that brings me to the point of who exactly is this mythical 4 capper. If he is a long hitter (say 265 carry or more) and a straight hitter too, he'd have to be a very mediocre putter or chipper or iron player to only have a 4 handicap. If so then his advantage off the tee doesn't really create a whole lot of change in the probabilities I calculated. And she would have to be the shorter hitting lpga pro too.

 

So what it all boils down to, methinks, is this: that the average 4 male handicap player against the average lpga tour player (say there are 125 who play each tournament so the average player would be number 63) would likely yield a high probability that the woman would beat the man. I'd say, giving due to the yardage factor, that instead of 1/90 times the man beats the lpga player, maybe more like 1 out of 10 times. Does that make it a slam dunk that the long male hitter who is a 4 will beat the average lpga player. No.

 

Someone said it here and I echo it, that it would likely take a male +2 or better, tournament tested, on a course that is at least 6850 yards, for there to be what I would consider a toss up stroke play match.

 

You keep ignoring the extra yardage like it makes no difference; even though it's the USGA's # 1 factor in resistance to scoring. Given that extra yardage "she", whoever she is, will shoot that 77 and HIGHER a fair bit more often. These are number that can only be guessed at.

 

And again, this doesn't have to be Lydia, or Lexi, or Inbee, it can be #100 (or higher).

 

But the title is, after all, "Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?"

 

So thanks at least for agreeing admitting he CAN.