Odds of making eagle on par 4?

[CasualLie]

@chickwebb  Seascape in Aptos?  That's awesome 2 in a day!  Well done!!

 

I had my 4th par 4 hole out for eagle this year yesterday.  Presidio #17.  Teed off with UDI 18, 150 in, bingo!

 

And again, I did not get to see it!  Green is so elevated I was not even sure if I stayed on it.

 

I am still 0 for forever in Aces.  

[2bGood]

On 9/25/2020 at 10:26 PM, rexroh said:

I think the chances of eagle on a par 4 is much like getting. 1 on a par 3.  Possibly slightly longer adds as you have to put your tee shot in play.  
It is my belief that seniors get more of these than low handicap long hitters.   The senior has the ball rolling across the green and can hit the pin and drop.  The low handicapper has his ball bounce once or twice and roll or spin backwards a few feet.  Less chance of hitting the pin.

it is just a matter the hole being short enough for the senior to reach the green. 
 

 

The odds of 2 on 4 have to be much less than a HOI. You have the added opportunities of short par 4 where you can drive on or near the green with a very short second shot. 

[miamistomp]

 Had one on a Par 4 today

  About 160 yards with a Cobra ladies Bio-Cell hybrid set at 28*  ( great trouble club that goes high and land softly )

   One bounce and  a short roll in

Edited October 12, 2021 by miamistomp

[Long_Left]

I've had two this year, one hole out from 115 and one putt on a short par 4, before that I'd have to go back a long time... maybe 6 times career making eagle on a par 4. 25+ years of avid golf but the course I play at mainly has no par 4s under 350. Holing out from the fairway on a "full" swing has to be long odds for an average "good" player. As the above stats indicate, it's maybe 1 in 300 for the leaders on the best tour in the world, I'd say it's closer to 1 in 3000 for me at a 4 index. Those numbers are likely a little skewed as well as the PGA Tour seems to be including at least 1 "drivable" par 4 a week in most tournaments, even if they are using the forward tees to do it. That statement is based purely on a gut check, no facts involved...

[Shushwap]

I make a couple a year at my home course.. we have hard dog leg par 4... depending on where the blocks are.. I can get through a small opening at the top of the trees and drive the green with a baby fade 

[llewol007]

It happens to those since alot of it still falls on luck. I know a player who is a 18+ handicap who has 5 hole in ones. Some players including myself until just recently have one or even none. So it can happen.

[larrybud]

On 9/26/2019 at 1:55 AM, RobertBaron said:

Depending on handicap and distance, I could see a short driveable par 4 being somewhere in the 20-30% eagle chance.

Probably if you’re above a 10 and max out at 250-260, the odds of making eagle get considerably less.

 

No way it's that high. What do you think your birdie % is on par 3s?? Maybe 10%?

[Myherobobhope]

10 hours ago, larrybud said:

 

No way it's that high. What do you think your birdie % is on par 3s?? Maybe 10%?

Yeah, my course is on the front tees right now… I’m decently long and have hybrid into 2 holes, 3 wood into 1 hole, and 2 holes that are drivable… the remaining par 4s I’m a short wedge in…

 

after 4 rounds from the front tees, I have 0 eagles and have hit the greens 3 times. I’m a 5 handicap… (I’ve had one eagle on the 5s and missed a couple eagle putts).

 

Drivable par 4s give you a chance at eagle, but necessarily a great one. It still requires 2 very good shots.

[SNIPERBBB]

11 hours ago, Myherobobhope said:

Yeah, my course is on the front tees right now… I’m decently long and have hybrid into 2 holes, 3 wood into 1 hole, and 2 holes that are drivable… the remaining par 4s I’m a short wedge in…

 

after 4 rounds from the front tees, I have 0 eagles and have hit the greens 3 times. I’m a 5 handicap… (I’ve had one eagle on the 5s and missed a couple eagle putts).

 

Drivable par 4s give you a chance at eagle, but necessarily a great one. It still requires 2 very good shots.

Or just one great shot that just requires a mediocre putt.. I've had a couple kick in eagles on par 4s but usually when you drive a par 4, it's usually a 20+ft putt. 

[larrybud]

11 hours ago, Myherobobhope said:

Yeah, my course is on the front tees right now… I’m decently long and have hybrid into 2 holes, 3 wood into 1 hole, and 2 holes that are drivable… the remaining par 4s I’m a short wedge in…

 

after 4 rounds from the front tees, I have 0 eagles and have hit the greens 3 times. I’m a 5 handicap… (I’ve had one eagle on the 5s and missed a couple eagle putts).

 

Drivable par 4s give you a chance at eagle, but necessarily a great one. It still requires 2 very good shots.

That's my point. If someone's birdie percentage on a par 3 which average 165 is 10%, then an eagle percentage on a short par 4 which is probably at least 70 yards longer than that is still going to be much lower than that.

[Myherobobhope]

11 hours ago, larrybud said:

That's my point. If someone's birdie percentage on a par 3 which average 165 is 10%, then an eagle percentage on a short par 4 which is probably at least 70 yards longer than that is still going to be much lower than that.

100%
 

Honestly, I don’t have many eagles on par 5s… and I can reach most of them in 2. I realize that’s three good shots, but I have 3 reachable 5s in my usual round… I think I have one eagle in 50 rounds.

[Par 4 Eagles]

Had my 19th career par 4 eagle today!  None have been less than 125 yards and I have been lucky enough to have 3 this year.   At 75 years old, I've pretty much exceeded my expectations, with one double eagle (559 yds), two under par rounds of 68 (50+ yrs ago) one with a triple bogey and the other with a double bogey.   Got my first hole in one last year, and missed shooting my age twice by 1 stroke.   Once a 6 handicap, now a 15.

[b.mattay]

I’m going to estimate I’ve played 825 rounds in my life. Have approximately 20 eagles on par 4’s. So for me, given that an average course has 10 par four’s, the odds are a little worse than 1/400 for me.

[PracticeSwinger]

2 hours ago, b.mattay said:

I’m going to estimate I’ve played 825 rounds in my life. Have approximately 20 eagles on par 4’s. So for me, given that an average course has 10 par four’s, the odds are a little worse than 1/400 for me.

3rd year playing, and from our respective caps, your odds are surely better than mine but seems legit... had 1 out of 529 par4s this year : 115yds approach shot to 4 feet and delicate roll in - one of my SportsCenter highlight shots of the year for sure

[Ty_Webb]

13 hours ago, b.mattay said:

I’m going to estimate I’ve played 825 rounds in my life. Have approximately 20 eagles on par 4’s. So for me, given that an average course has 10 par four’s, the odds are a little worse than 1/400 for me.

How long have you been playing for? 825 feels pretty light to me.

[b.mattay]

28 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

How long have you been playing for? 825 feels pretty light to me.

65 rounds a year over the last 10 years as an adult, plus whatever I played before I was 18, which I estimate to be about 15 rounds a year from about 7-18. 

Edited December 10, 2022 by b.mattay

[Ty_Webb]

9 hours ago, b.mattay said:

65 rounds a year over the last 10 years as an adult, plus whatever I played before I was 18, which I estimate to be about 15 rounds a year from about 7-18. 

Fair enough - that's pretty impressive to carry a +2-+3 handicap from that amount of golf. I probably played about 150-200 rounds a year from 14-18, 100 or so from 19-22, 80 odd from 23 to 31 and 25 or so since then. About 2500 total. 

 

Now I think about it I'm surprised that's not more. I've played about 320 different courses and some of those I've played a LOT. I guess 2500 is quite a lot of rounds.

[Ghostwedge]

Not counting a few pitch ins and chip ins on short par 4's, I have made 1 eagle from the fairway. First year playing holed out from 150 yds, haven't since but have 3 Aces. 3414 rds  played in my life so far. 

[bluedot]

70 yrs old, and I’m guessing I’ve played around 3500 rounds.  Didn’t start until I was 30, didn’t play a lot until my kids were grown, but I’ve played 150+ rounds per year for the last 15 years or so.

 

I have 53 eagles. (I keep a notebook.) 40 are on par 5’s, I have 5 aces on par 3’s, and I have 8 eagles on par 4’s.

 

My math skills aren’t the best, but I think that means I’ve been almost 8x as likely to make eagle on a par 5 than a par 3, and 12x as likely to make eagle on par 5 than a par 4.  
 

Said another way, my chances of making a one on a par three have been MUCH better than my chances of making a two on a par 4, but my eagle chances on par 3’s AND par 4’s combined are less than 1 in a thousand; my par 5 eagle chances are about 1 in 350, or almost three times better than 3’s and 4’s combined.