Distance, wins and the Tour, am I way off?

[dmecca2]

48 minutes ago, Fairway14 said:

 

I've never played "League golf". Here in California where there is year round golf I am not sure there are Leagues.

But for decades I've watched Tour players and amateurs of all skill levels play golf courses.

At every skill level the long bomber who does not get the ball up and down from green side scores poorly. That is how golf has been for the past 100 years and will likely be so for the next 100 years.

Skins matches, league play. Same animal. The point is, distance has no relevance to the short game abilities of a player. If someone has a good short game, and then they push to gain 20 yards off the tee, they are not going to suddenly have a worse short game. Works the same the opposite way. Nobody in the history of golf has ever said, "hey coach, can you help me lose 20 yards off the tee so I can chip and pitch it better?"

[BNGL]

5 hours ago, Fairway14 said:

 

It's been true for the decades I've played and watched golf. For example in my my regular skins game group of 16 to 24 players, handicaps ranging from plus 3 to about a 9 , the longest hitters rarely shoot the lowest 18 hole scores and, or, win the most skins.

I understand there is a common misconception that that the player with an 8-iron into a green has a "significant advantage" over the player swinging 6-iron. On Tour where every player in the field has a sensational short game that may be true. But for amateur play the longest hitter often has a weak short game, so any theoretical "advantage" he gained from extra distance is negated.

This is quite possibly the dumbest thing I’ve read. You’re “long hitting” friends don’t have bad short games because they’re long hitters, they have bad short games because they suck and haven’t taken the time to practice and develop their games around the greens. 
 

Also your assertion that tour pros would take more putts over 20 yards isn’t correct. Assuming no loss of accuracy as your thesis states, I will grant you that increase in distance tends to correlate with decreased accuracy and players understand that curve and I think all have a number in mind they’d be comfortable with ie extra 12 yards for a 4 percent decrease in accuracy but not 15 yards for a 10 percent increase if that makes sense. I used to play regularly with quite a few tour players, still talk regularly with several even some that have won this year post restart. Every one would take an extra 20 yards. 
 

There’s no greater example of adding distance than Francesco Molinari, from 2015 to 2018 he added that 20 yards you talk about and enjoyed a meteoric rise up the OWGR won a major went 5-0 at the Ryder Cup. Distance gains don’t show up on the scorecard but you’ll see the results over the course of a season/career. 

[Titleist99]

5 hours ago, Fairway14 said:

 

Absolutely correct. Also, any Tour player when asked "would you rather gain 20 yards off the tee or make more putts"? every single player would reply "make more putts".

Every single one (tour players) would take making more putts because they know that the distance between the world #1 and the world #100 is miniscule.....most weeks it come down to putting no matter what the strokes gain nonsense says....

 

(almost)Every single GOLFWRXer would take twenty yards even if they couldn't get it in the hole....LOL!

Edited October 22, 2020 by Titleist99

[GolfTurkey]

3 hours ago, dmecca2 said:

Skins matches, league play. Same animal. The point is, distance has no relevance to the short game abilities of a player. If someone has a good short game, and then they push to gain 20 yards off the tee, they are not going to suddenly have a worse short game. Works the same the opposite way. Nobody in the history of golf has ever said, "hey coach, can you help me lose 20 yards off the tee so I can chip and pitch it better?"

Yep, and the season why the short knockers at pro level or high level am play have fantastic short games is because nobody would have heard of them if they didn’t. It’s compulsory to be a short game wizard if you’re short.

[doobz]

6 hours ago, bubbagump said:

Of course 5-10' matters in general, but I would hardly say its "everything".  Check the putting stats in addition to the proximity to hole approaches and it tells a picture to where really no one stat really reigns supreme.   The names are all over the place.  

 

Advantages exist in both length, and putting ability....always has, but neither is going to dominate on its own.  

 

 

It literally is everything. The average make % from 10 feet on tour is around 41%, from 15-20 feet its 18%. If having a PW into a green instead of an 8 Iron means a difference of 5-10 feet, all other things equal the guy hitting PW is making over 2x as many birdies. The data bores this out over and over again and it’s as true for pros as it is for amateurs, less club into greens from a shorter distance means you score better. You can chose to ignore it if you want but it is simply a fact.

[bubbagump]

18 minutes ago, doobz said:

 

It literally is everything. The average make % from 10 feet on tour is around 41%, from 15-20 feet its 18%. If having a PW into a green instead of an 8 Iron means a difference of 5-10 feet, all other things equal the guy hitting PW is making over 2x as many birdies. The data bores this out over and over again and it’s as true for pros as it is for amateurs, less club into greens from a shorter distance means you score better. You can chose to ignore it if you want but it is simply a fact.

 

I think were saying the same thing via different avenues.  What youre saying is legit, if a guy is hitting it to 10 feet and in every time however they arent though, even from 100 and in.  Which is what I was showing with the proximity to hole, from the various distances.  Being closer is an advantage no doubt (green and approach), my gist was off the tee its not the massive advantage making a rollback necessary as its being made out to be.       

 

Like I said, totally understand closer is better via putting, and that I fall far more on the putting side of this equation is more important (via proximity to hole) as opposed to distance.    

Edited October 23, 2020 by bubbagump

[jvincent]

2 hours ago, BNGL said:

This is quite possibly the dumbest thing I’ve read.

 

Go read his other thread on whether gapping matters.

[Dr. Block]

1 hour ago, Titleist99 said:

Every single one (tour players) would take making more putts because they know that the distance between the world #1 and the world #100 is miniscule.....most weeks it come down to putting no matter what the strokes gain nonsense says....

 

(almost)Every single GOLFWRXer would take twenty yards even if they couldn't get it in the hole....LOL!

I think a fair amount of us would take the putts.  I know I would.  The next thing I’d take would be more fairways, because that would mean more of the putts would be for birdie.  
 

you’re absolutely right about the pro’s.  It’s all about the flat stick, next would be proximity stats probably.

 

Every now and then I get invited to play with a couple mini tour guys at my club.  They are all a stripe show, just like the guys on TV.  They spend most of their practice time on the putting green. 

[BNGL]

For all of you guys saying pros would take more putts over 20 yards I’m curious if that’s speculation or from actually talking with tour players. I screenshot a post of this and put in in a group chat all five guys (granted only three are on tour now, 1 is on medical the other is playing champions tour) all five would take 20 yards. (That’s a small sample size very very small but still more first hand accounts than what I reckon most of y’all are getting). Because that’s more opportunities for birdies...even if they don’t convert every chance converting the same percentage of more chances yields lower scores (assuming all things stay equal and only distance increases). 

[br61]

45 minutes ago, BNGL said:

For all of you guys saying pros would take more putts over 20 yards I’m curious if that’s speculation or from actually talking with tour players. I screenshot a post of this and put in in a group chat all five guys (granted only three are on tour now, 1 is on medical the other is playing champions tour) all five would take 20 yards. (That’s a small sample size very very small but still more first hand accounts than what I reckon most of y’all are getting). Because that’s more opportunities for birdies...even if they don’t convert every chance converting the same percentage of more chances yields lower scores (assuming all things stay equal and only distance increases). 

I know I would take extra 20 yards anytime.

[bladehunter]

1 hour ago, BNGL said:

For all of you guys saying pros would take more putts over 20 yards I’m curious if that’s speculation or from actually talking with tour players. I screenshot a post of this and put in in a group chat all five guys (granted only three are on tour now, 1 is on medical the other is playing champions tour) all five would take 20 yards. (That’s a small sample size very very small but still more first hand accounts than what I reckon most of y’all are getting). Because that’s more opportunities for birdies...even if they don’t convert every chance converting the same percentage of more chances yields lower scores (assuming all things stay equal and only distance increases). 

Here’s the logic.   More putts would equal guaranteed birdies inside 12 ft.  And guaranteed 2 putts inside 35 feet. Right ?   So how does 20 yards top that if you already hit it long ?  
 

 

now if we’re saying “ more putts “ equals 2 more made per round of something. Then no.  I guess in my mind I’m thinking an auto putt card.   We need to quantify “ more putts “ of THats not the case.  

[oikos1]

58 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

Here’s the logic.   More putts would equal guaranteed birdies inside 12 ft.  And guaranteed 2 putts inside 35 feet. Right ?   So how does 20 yards top that if you already hit it long ?  
 

 

now if we’re saying “ more putts “ equals 2 more made per round of something. Then no.  I guess in my mind I’m thinking an auto putt card.   We need to quantify “ more putts “ of THats not the case.  

Agree.  More putts implies one would be twenty yards back but would still have birdie putts left after their approach, just longer putts than the player who was 20 yards closer.  I'll take more putts made all day.  After all, that is the entire point of the game.  Fewest strokes, not closest approaches.

 

However, in the real world and over time, fewer putts is usually the result of closer approaches.

[BNGL]

1 hour ago, bladehunter said:

Here’s the logic.   More putts would equal guaranteed birdies inside 12 ft.  And guaranteed 2 putts inside 35 feet. Right ?   So how does 20 yards top that if you already hit it long ?  
 

 

now if we’re saying “ more putts “ equals 2 more made per round of something. Then no.  I guess in my mind I’m thinking an auto putt card.   We need to quantify “ more putts “ of THats not the case.  

I totally get the logic I really do, I’m just telling you what I know as crappy golfer who plays/played with really really good ones. We’d all take an extra 20 because that would yield closer approaches which could lead to shorter putts which could lead to lower scores. That’s all I’m trying to say, I’d guarantee if you ask tour players which would you rather have? A majority would take an extra 20, maybe not the longer ones but a majority would. Again you can say I’m aware 2 fewer putts per round is 2 off my stroke average if were automatic putting? Then yah everyone would take putting, but when you’re literally splitting hairs at tour level...the extra yardage will benefit a player more over a career/season than putting because it simply yields more opportunities to score in the long run. 

[BNGL]

18 minutes ago, oikos1 said:

Agree.  More putts implies one would be twenty yards back but would still have birdie putts left after their approach, just longer putts than the player who was 20 yards closer.  I'll take more putts made all day.  After all, that is the entire point of the game.  Fewest strokes, not closest approaches.

 

However, in the real world and over time, fewer putts is usually the result of closer approaches.

You hit the nail on the head with your last statement.

[bladehunter]

1 minute ago, BNGL said:

I totally get the logic I really do, I’m just telling you what I know as crappy golfer who plays/played with really really good ones. We’d all take an extra 20 because that would yield closer approaches which could lead to shorter putts which could lead to lower scores. That’s all I’m trying to say, I’d guarantee if you ask tour players which would you rather have? A majority would take an extra 20, maybe not the longer ones but a majority would. Again you can say I’m aware 2 fewer putts per round is 2 off my stroke average if were automatic putting? Then yah everyone would take putting, but when you’re literally splitting hairs at tour level...the extra yardage will benefit a player more over a career/season than putting because it simply yields more opportunities to score in the long run. 

Yea.  I get it. I do.  And I have some tour contacts as well.  And I’d bet you’re not wrong.     I suppose I’d feel differently if I were maxed out on distance and couldn’t get more.  I’ve not controlled a hard swing yet , so t me 20 more is just reaching back and letting one go.  The real question is where will it go !  lol.    Mostly kidding.  I’m not that wild. But I do tend to play very safely off the tee.  

[BNGL]

36 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

Yea.  I get it. I do.  And I have some tour contacts as well.  And I’d bet you’re not wrong.     I suppose I’d feel differently if I were maxed out on distance and couldn’t get more.  I’ve not controlled a hard swing yet , so t me 20 more is just reaching back and letting one go.  The real question is where will it go !  lol.    Mostly kidding.  I’m not that wild. But I do tend to play very safely off the tee.  

Right and I think, please don’t take offense blade but, I think you’re looking at this on the extremes. Either pick it up from 12 feet, or swing all uncontrolled. I look at it as I’m gaining 20 yards by improving launch conditions technique not changing the swing. And I don’t think about automatically picking it up I look it as making one more 8 footer each event not picking up every 8 footer. If that makes sense.

[bladehunter]

9 minutes ago, BNGL said:

Right and I think, please don’t take offense blade but, I think you’re looking at this on the extremes. Either pick it up from 12 feet, or swing all uncontrolled. I look at it as I’m gaining 20 yards by improving launch conditions technique not changing the swing. And I don’t think about automatically picking it up I look it as making one more 8 footer each event not picking up every 8 footer. If that makes sense.

It does.   And if that’s the case I agree.  Same swing add 20 yards.  Sure. I’m in whne compared to making 1 more putt a round.  Putting involves so much luck anyway that one more a round is achievable by chance at any point in time.  I swear o had one of the best putting rounds of my life last Saturday.  And I didn’t make anything.  I misread everything and got unlucky twice with long putts that hopped midway and went offline a fraction to rest by the hole.  Meaning I hit my intended line every single stroke and perfect speed every single time ,   Just read too much break every single time.  
 

putting is so final that In my mind the only improvement is in the hole.  Driver on the other hand.  You can improve 100 ways and not be on the sprinkler line .  As they say. Score card doesn’t have pictures.  That’s why my Saturday round was a 75 and not a 67.  Lol. 

[Titleist99]

3 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

It does.   And if that’s the case I agree.  Same swing add 20 yards.  Sure. I’m in whne compared to making 1 more putt a round.  Putting involves so much luck anyway that one more a round is achievable by chance at any point in time.  I swear o had one of the best putting rounds of my life last Saturday.  And I didn’t make anything.  I misread everything and got unlucky twice with long putts that hopped midway and went offline a fraction to rest by the hole.  Meaning I hit my intended line every single stroke and perfect speed every single time ,   Just read too much break every single time.  
 

putting is so final that In my mind the only improvement is in the hole.  Driver on the other hand.  You can improve 100 ways and not be on the sprinkler line .  As they say. Score card doesn’t have pictures.  That’s why my Saturday round was a 75 and not a 67.  Lol. 

We were having a discussion re:  What would you take, ten extra yards or make more putts. I'm guessing you'd choose MAKE MORE PUTTS...

[doobz]

2 hours ago, bladehunter said:

Here’s the logic.   More putts would equal guaranteed birdies inside 12 ft.  And guaranteed 2 putts inside 35 feet. Right ?   So how does 20 yards top that if you already hit it long ?  
 

 

now if we’re saying “ more putts “ equals 2 more made per round of something. Then no.  I guess in my mind I’m thinking an auto putt card.   We need to quantify “ more putts “ of THats not the case.  

 

20 yards tops that if you’re already long because it means you’re putting inside 12 feet for birdie more often! 

[Dr. Block]

20 extra yards is a broad statement.  Making more putts is not.  Does 20 more yards mean you keep the same accuracy?.... (it usually doesn't work that way).  Do you get 20 more yards keeping your normal swing tempo, or do you have to go the BD and Mickelson route.  You've seen how its worked for Phil, he can hardly keep his balance anymore.  His obsession with distance hasn't equated to low scores on the regular tour. 

 

If we're talking about the guys fighting for status in professional golf, more putts equals a better score when it matters the most.  They only get so many career defining opportunities.  When those opportunities come, they need the putter to be hot.  

Edited October 23, 2020 by Dr. Block

[BNGL]

1 minute ago, Dr. Block said:

20 extra yards is a broad statement.  Making more putts is not.  Does 20 more yards mean you keep the same accuracy?.... (it usually doesn't work that way).  Do you get 20 more yards keeping your normal swing tempo, or do you have to go the BD and Mickelson route.  You've seen how its worked for Phil, he can hardly keep his balance anymore.  His obsession with distance hasn't equated to low scores on the regular tour. 

 

If we're talking about the guys fighting for status in professional golf, more putts equals a better score when it matters the most.  They only get so many career defining opportunities, when those opportunities come, they need the putter to be hot.  

Totally agree with your sentiments and I’ve highlighted that correlation I feel in my responses. There’s definitely a curve of what’s acceptable to lose when gaining yardage for players (that was a crappy explanation but I think y’all will get it). It’s different from player to player. As the question was laid out 20 yards or more putts? Players are taking 20 yards assuming no loss of accuracy, and also assuming it’s not as simple as picking up every putt inside of 12 feet because then obviously we’re going with the latter across the board.

 

Why I’m so fiery about this is because I just know I’m right and gave an example of player (and could probably find more, but I’m not to the point of going scorched Earth) that improved his career by adding the 20 yards we’re talking about. Francesco put on the 20 yards and rocketed up the OWGR, he did it through getting better in the gym, improving his technique, and optimizing launch conditions. Yeah he moves it but you don’t ever feel like he’s going uncontrolled do you? (granted he’s was usually string straight with driver already). 

[bladehunter]

29 minutes ago, Titleist99 said:

We were having a discussion re:  What would you take, ten extra yards or make more putts. I'm guessing you'd choose MAKE MORE PUTTS...

Yes. If the more were a quantified gauranteed number above say 3 a round.  Yes. I’d take the shots.   I don’t personally believe that 10 yards is worth 3 shots a round.  

[bladehunter]

31 minutes ago, doobz said:

 

20 yards tops that if you’re already long because it means you’re putting inside 12 feet for birdie more often! 

You’ve obviously never seen elite ballstriker  like Vijay , Fleetwood , or Rory putt.   They need to be inside 5 feet to make me care about proximity.   

Edited October 23, 2020 by bladehunter

[bladehunter]

To clarify the above.  Of course proximity matters.  But.  I think some are looking at it from a player with a weak iron game perspective and some like myself are looking at it from a streaky putters perspective.  My iron game is rarely off point.  I hit a ton of greens in reg.  It’s what I practice daily.  It’s what I enjoy.  Period.  
 

gaurantee me a 2 putt every hole to take the pressure off and give me a shot at birdie . Meaning if I make it it’s birdie or not pick it up and go and mark par and I’ll own you if I’m hitting 8 iron to your pw ( roughly 20 yards ).   That’s how confident I am  hitting greens with a 6 iron down.  
 

now somebody’s going to cry fowl quickly.  And That person will be the strong putter who fears hitting anything above a wedge.  
 

hogan said it best whne he said controlling the ball should rule scoring.  Not putter.  
 

my point.  Both matter pretty equally.  You cannot score without a warm putter.  Can’t be done. The outliers are the guys like me who score with approach shots  and the guys who hit it everywhere and make every putt.   

[Dr. Block]

27 minutes ago, BNGL said:

Totally agree with your sentiments and I’ve highlighted that correlation I feel in my responses. There’s definitely a curve of what’s acceptable to lose when gaining yardage for players (that was a crappy explanation but I think y’all will get it). It’s different from player to player. As the question was laid out 20 yards or more putts? Players are taking 20 yards assuming no loss of accuracy, and also assuming it’s not as simple as picking up every putt inside of 12 feet because then obviously we’re going with the latter across the board.

 

Why I’m so fiery about this is because I just know I’m right and gave an example of player (and could probably find more, but I’m not to the point of going scorched Earth) that improved his career by adding the 20 yards we’re talking about. Francesco put on the 20 yards and rocketed up the OWGR, he did it through getting better in the gym, improving his technique, and optimizing launch conditions. Yeah he moves it but you don’t ever feel like he’s going uncontrolled do you? (granted he’s was usually string straight with driver already). 

I don't disagree with you.  You're probably correct that all fully exempt and above tour players (champions, and elite major winners) would take the 20 yards.  Particularly the ones that are average and below in driving distance during this rapid evolution of the distance arms race.  They are all world-class putters, that part of the game is something they have mastered.  And when they have a hot week, they win or make a lot of money/fed ex points.   My point was putting is probably the biggest point that separates the best in the world from those fighting for status on any tour.  Those guys want the putts.  They have the rest of the game.  Its almost some sort of an inverse relationship.   The guy I sometimes play with can pound it 300+ with a purpose built squeeze cut that he finds fairway after fairway with.  It's pretty crazy what's going to be continuing down the pipe when it comes to ball-striking.  Putting is a little different though, you can't master it through time in the gym, launch monitors and the like.  

Edited October 23, 2020 by Dr. Block

[nsxguy]

3 hours ago, oikos1 said:

Agree.  More putts implies one would be twenty yards back but would still have birdie putts left after their approach, just longer putts than the player who was 20 yards closer.  I'll take more putts made all day.  After all, that is the entire point of the game.  Fewest strokes, not closest approaches.

 

However, in the real world and over time, fewer putts is usually the result of closer approaches.

 

Exactly.

 

Improvement for most players, on average, is measure in fractions of a stroke per round.

 

I was kinda sorta playin' before when I said 20 more yards because, as you said, in the real world 20 yards will equal more made putts.

 

If one is suggesting "more putts" equals 2 per round I doubt there's a golfer alive who wouldn't take that !!!

[nsxguy]

1 hour ago, bladehunter said:

To clarify the above.  Of course proximity matters.  But.  I think some are looking at it from a player with a weak iron game perspective and some like myself are looking at it from a streaky putters perspective.  My iron game is rarely off point.  I hit a ton of greens in reg.  It’s what I practice daily.  It’s what I enjoy.  Period.  
 

gaurantee me a 2 putt every hole to take the pressure off and give me a shot at birdie . Meaning if I make it it’s birdie or not pick it up and go and mark par and I’ll own you if I’m hitting 8 iron to your pw ( roughly 20 yards ).   That’s how confident I am  hitting greens with a 6 iron down.  
 

now somebody’s going to cry fowl quickly.  And That person will be the strong putter who fears hitting anything above a wedge.  
 

hogan said it best whne he said controlling the ball should rule scoring.  Not putter.  
 

my point.  Both matter pretty equally.  You cannot score without a warm putter.  Can’t be done. The outliers are the guys like me who score with approach shots  and the guys who hit it everywhere and make every putt.   

 

You sound like the best player in my old club when I first joined. Everybody though of him as an average or maybe even a bit less than average as a putter.

 

Well, for his skill level (he was a "1"), perhaps that was true but the guy hit probably 12-14 greens per round and basically 2 putted almost everything and seemed to never miss a 3-footer.

 

So since he had 32 putts per round "nobody" thought he was a very good putter. Balderdash.

 

You're scratch, right ? So if we guarantee you no more than 2 putts per hole hitting 8 irons and your opponent is scratch as well hitting PW every hole you're going to "own" him ? Hmmmmmmm,,,,,,,,,

 

Never understood the Hogan mystique as he was gone before I got interested in golf but was he a poor putter (relatively speaking of course) ? If so I guess I understand his opinion.

[Dr. Block]

9 minutes ago, nsxguy said:

 

You sound like the best player in my old club when I first joined. Everybody though of him as an average or maybe even a bit less than average as a putter.

 

Well, for his skill level (he was a "1"), perhaps that was true but the guy hit probably 12-14 greens per round and basically 2 putted almost everything and seemed to never miss a 3-footer.

 

So since he had 32 putts per round "nobody" thought he was a very good putter. Balderdash.

 

You're scratch, right ? So if we guarantee you no more than 2 putts per hole hitting 8 irons and your opponent is scratch as well hitting PW every hole you're going to "own" him ? Hmmmmmmm,,,,,,,,,

 

Never understood the Hogan mystique as he was gone before I got interested in golf but was he a poor putter (relatively speaking of course) ? If so I guess I understand his opinion.

Go watch the Shell's match on Youtube where Hogan plays Snead.  He hits every fairway and every green.  That was his mystique.  He was not a great putter, and it bothered him greatly how important that was too the game.haha.  I remember reading that he thought putts should count for less then a total stroke. 

[3whacker]

everybody gets so enamored with  distance off the tee, but where I see the "real distance factor" is with their iron play...when I caddied on mini tour and the old Q school events I realized that the pros were silly long with their irons, they hardly every played a 2-3-4 iron unless it was a monster par 3 or going for it in two on a Par 5....nowadays all these guys are able to hit 7-8 irons 200 yards, there isn't a whole lot of courses that can hold up when you put a scoring iron club in a Pro's hands from that distance...I still remember being on the 18th at the Palmer private where DD hit 5 iron  into the Par 5 to shoot 59...I was looking 3 wood from that plaque and I played to single digits at the time...There isn't a Par 3 on Tour that these guys cant hit with a mid iron or shorter

[doobz]

2 hours ago, bladehunter said:

You’ve obviously never seen elite ballstriker  like Vijay , Fleetwood , or Rory putt.   They need to be inside 5 feet to make me care about proximity.   

 

I have seen all of them in person and being an elite ballstriker doesn't preclude you from being a great putter.