Scoring Expectations for Par 5's

[nsxguy]

You are correct, except

Reality does not ALWAYS live up to expectations. But those things you list a) often DO happen and b) are expectations of others, not of yourself.

[Justsomeguy]

#onlyeagles!

[Rosco1216]

I play par as 68 at my course and most. Unless it’s over 570+ and/or forces a layup off the tee or 250+carry on approach with a great drive.

[ThinkingPlus]

The par 5s at my home course, despite being relatively short for me (435, 463, 430, and 446), are generally not reachable in two. Two are doglegs where it is risky or impossible to cut the doglegs and I usually layup off the tee. The longest par 5 plays into a quartering 10 - 20 mph wind and requires a forced layup to a ditch. The shortest par 5 has a partial cross bunker that leaves a 15 yard wide fairway between bunker and maybe 10 - 15 yards of trees, cart path, and penalty area. The carry over the bunker is 230 which is a no go for me. Hitting that narrow strip of fairway can give me a chance at getting home in two, but the 2nd shot is pretty much all carry over a front bunker to a 10 yard deep green. It very rarely happens.

So given all that, I pretty much only expect pars on these holes. If I hit good tee shots I usually get to hit some flavor of wedge on 3 of 4. Decent chance of a bird on one of those, but certainly not an expectation. Now if I played someplace more wide open where I could bang away with drivers on those holes and then hammer 3w or 3h for 2nds with no forced layups or forced carrys, my expectations would be a little different.

[oikos1]

Lol. Good luck with your game. A lot of diffeent ways to approach it.

[Ri_Redneck]

Trust me, what I expect and what I get are typically very different things.

BT

[Ri_Redneck]

TOUCHE' SOLOMAN!!!!!!!!!!!

BT

[James the Hogan Fan]

So this thread had me make a spreadsheet of the 15 rounds I have played since switching to my new home course. My handicap is currently 6.6, and my course has 4 par 5's:

(back/middle tee) 2: 560/525; 4: 495/485; 11: 565/530; 15: 505/485yd. The course plays 6,800 @ 74.5/146 and 6,350 @ 72.4/141 respectively, and I play from both tees equally frequently. 2 is reachable with a perfect tee shot, as is 15. 4 requires a draw I don't have, and 11 is a very wind-dependent hole, 3 shots usually.

In the 15 rounds I have played, I have made 12 birdies, 6 of which occurred on the 5's, 3 on 3's and 3 on 4's. Additionally, my scoring average to par is the best on 11 and 15, at +0.27 and +0.40 respectively (but not as good on 2 and 4) On the par 5's my most common score is 5, (simple mode) and simple mean is 5.45. No eagles yet this year, though I did 4 putt my one look from 12 feet!

So looking at this data my expectation on the par 5's would be to make 2 pars and 2 bogeys or so, and I would prefer to make 2 pars, one birdie, and one bogey, but to be honest, since I cannot even guarantee one birdie per round, expecting a birdie from a set of 4 holes within a round is a bit extreme, although the par 5's do (usually) give me the best chance to do so.

[bazinky]

All but one of the par 5s at my course are reachable on two. The fourth and longest has a small and really heavily sloped green that makes par a decent score no matter what.

I try to avoid having an expectation about the actual score since I feel that makes for bad mental decisions when you get out of position (and had led to a lot of blowups for me in the past).

My goal right now is simply to try and make sure I have some sort of putt for a birdie on all 4, and let the results take care of themselves. That strategy seems to be improving my par 5 scoring so far ...

[James the Hogan Fan]

Played today from the middle tees for the first time since reading the thread.

2: Booming drive, hybrid to just off the front, putt-putt birdie.

4: great drive, second into greenside sand, over the green with third, chip to 6', lipout, bogey.

11: drive OB, reload, 3wood to 20 yards, lob wedge over bunker, one-putt bogey. (But a "birdie" in the sense of discounting the ob ball

15: drive sliced off planet earth into wrong fairway. Hybrid to fringe, bad chip to 6' feet, another lipout, but par nevertheless.

4+6+6+5-> 21/4 = 5.25, a pretty typical day!

Right now my wedges are absolute trash and it's costing me strokes. Otherwise not much to say other than "at my skill level it's hard to make birdies" although I had two today.

 

[shantanu1203]

Try to average par on the par 5s is the goal I start with!

[CactusGolf]

I'm probably the worst par 5 player I know. I get into a lot of trouble right away by not keeping the ball in play off the tee. Hitting 3 off the tee on a par 5 is a round-killer for me. I think I need to really start playing more conservatively with 3-wood off the tee and then lay up to 80-100 yards.

 

Over 160 rounds, I typically score 0.23 strokes over par on par 5s (16% birdies, 52% pars, 22% bogeys, 6% double bogeys, and 2% triple or higher). I know that I could eliminate the doubles and triples if I just got the ball in play off the tee.

[davep043]

"I also play a lot of match play, so I can see where my goals and @davep043 goals, such as "play each shot in the way that will give me the lowest score, long term average", would be different. My "expectation" when standing on the tee of any hole is to make birdie or better. I leave preconceived thoughts and emotions out of the equation and adjust accordingly after each shot until the hole is finished."
My expectation is to hit a good shot each time I swing the club. If I do that, I'll make pars and a few birdies. I can't force birdies by thinking about them from 500+ yards away, all I can do is to hit the tee shot, so the best thing I can do is concentrate on the tee shot. For me, keeping in my process (the cliche "staying in the moment") leads to more good shots and better scores. Thinking about the score before I've hit a tee shot hasn't ever helped me to shoot better scores.

[SNIPERBBB]

Obviously some people cant separate preround expectations from on the course playing.

[Obee]

Most par 5's are now absolute 3-shot holes for me. We have five par 5's on my home course. Here is my scoring data from my home course (6,560, 71.6/130) as a +1.0 currently:

 

 

[CactusGolf]

Since you're playing them as 3 shot holes, what are you using off the tee? Did your strategy change since making the decision to go a 3-shot hole plan?

[Obee]

My strategy has changed subtly, but in a way that matters.

I no longer try to hit a "big" drive on most par-5 holes because I'm simply trying to put myself in position to lay-up to a good spot on my next shot. Completely changes the "pressure level" on a par-5 tee ball.

[CactusGolf]

That makes sense. That's my issue mainly on par 5s, just getting it in play off the tee since I'm trying to go with the "big ball".

[bortass]

So many variables in one's expectations. For me, I'm happy with bogeys right now because I'm a high index that doesn't hit the ball real far. My average is 6.9. I can't reach any of the greens in two and there's one I play like a par 6 because of the water situation. Your second shot is either a layup short of a 10 yard wide stream or trying to carry it and keep your ball out of the pond on the other side. There's a large pond fronting the green. So my 'safe' play is tee shot as far as I can, lay up short of the stream, hit a 140 club to the fairway left of the pond and green; 90-110 yard approach with water to the right.

[smashdn]

@TheCityGame
You beat me to this. Yours is more impressive too.
I am on the upper end of caps to be a bogey golfer at 14.3. I don't suck near as bad on par 5's as anything else though. I can hit the ball a long way so I am normally on or near the green in two. On par fives that I know I have no chance at being near the green in two I take the approach that @Obee does and play something safe off the tee, an iron to a nice lay up spot/distance and then try to get middle of green with a wedge.
I have really started to try and dial in my shots at 100 and 150 yards. I will go to the range and hit shots to only those two yardages (with driver mixed in) in hopes that my iron accuracy improves. I haven't played since I have made this decision but I think I will start playing to middle of green for every shot over 100 yards and probably even a good deal under if the lie or green angle adds difficulty. I came to this decision after really digesting the latter chapters of Lowest Score Wins. Fairways and greens is boring golf but it is scoring golf.
[img]https://s3.amazonaws.com/golfwrxforums/uploads/8G7Z0VMEBJR1/score-by-hole-par-7-26-2020-jpg.jpg[/img]

[KGilma]

On my home course, I expect to be on in 2, on 3 of the 4 par 5's. One just isn't doable, unless you can carry 265 over the lake, so I consider it a good score if I make par or bogey. Sunday before Last, I was on in 2 on 3 of the 4, and was a combined -3 (3 birdies my best ever). This past Saturday, I was on in 2 on 1 of them, and a combined 6 over because of 2 balls in the lake on the unreachable par 5, and 3 putting (Par, Quad, bogey, bogey). Man I love golf!

[cardoustie]

I expect two of four birds. I can reach them all. My best ever in one round is 5 under .... I had 4 eagle putts that day and still shot 77 ... what a clown I am

[oikos1]

Definitely a misunderstanding here. How about this question: How do you set yourself up for a birdie putt if you don't think about where you want to be off of the tee? Obviously, if you mishit a ball, everything changes, but when I'm on the tee, or in the fairway, I'm thinking where's the best place to be to make birdie, not just to make a good shot. Good shots can end up in crap places.

And there are plenty of holes a round where I'm in the fairway or rough thinking "maybe a chance at birdie, but let's for sure get out of here with a par and move on".

 

[goaliedad30]

I play my best when I treat our par 5 holes as three-shotters, and play for "easy 5, putt for birdie". Even the short, downwind hole, I accept that if I'm in the front bunker, I can make an "easy 5". It keeps me balanced and in the fairway on the tee shot, and not trying to overswing the 2nd shot.

[davep043]

We're probably closer than either one of us thinks on this, maybe its a difference in terminology between expectation and plan. My plan is to put my tee shot into a good position, which in turn will give me the opportunity on the next shot to get close to the hole. I want to play as aggressively as I reasonably can, without taking on excess risk. But I also am aware of general probabilities, I average over par on par 5 holes. I can't "expect" to birdie every one, that's unrealistic. The average PGA Tour pro still averages about 4.6 on par-5s, for them to "expect" to birdie every one is unrealistic. But my plan starting every par-5, my shot selection is intended to give me a change to birdie every one. And as you say, that plan gets evaluated and revised based on the results of each shot.

[Hawkeye77]

We have 3 par 5s. One is not reachable in 2 for most and par is a good score. Two of them can be reached in 2 with good drives, but the 2nd shots aren't easy ones (short is okay if going for it on both, one of them has plenty of bits of challenge if you miss anywhere else, and the wedges in if laying up aren't "gimmes", either). One of the 3 I birdie often enough, but even par or one under for those three holes is good golf.

These questions are so situational it really is hard to give an answer to what someone's expectations should be for scoring on par 5s. That issue seems to be something that to me really does separate pros from some of us ordinary folks - they seem to be birdie holes (in general) on Tour, but really not so much for the rest of us. Better have your long game honed pretty well or putt well after good wedge shots (sounds like something really good players can do) - I can't claim any particular skills that way, lol.

[davep043]

I just checked the PGA Tour stats, last year the mid-level tour player averaged about 4.6 on par-5s. So yes, the probability of a birdie is highest on those, but the probable score on each one is 5 (lumping all par-5s together).

[Soloman1]

We're comparing Tour course setups and lengths now? Well, I have no expectation to birdie them. Well, maybe one? :)

 

There's a difference between an expectation and an unreasonable expectation. If you're a 12 handicap, then it's unreasonable to have an expectation to birdie all or most Par 5's. And of course it depends on the holes, course and length. If you're scratch or better, I think you should consider having an expectation of making birdie even if it is a 3-shot hole.

That's my approach to the game. You don't have to agree with it. I rarely achieve it, but it gives me a goal. If you have no goals, you'll always achieve them.

[oikos1]

Yes, I think we are. Semantics probably do muddy this up. There are tough holes where bogey as the result is acceptable for me, but I have also birdied those holes so my "expectation" changed. In other words, I'm a firm believer in once you've proven you can do it, there is no reason not to expect to do it again, even though statistics may say otherwise.

I gave it some more thought and I realize two people can have the same thought, such as "I expect to birdie every hole" but go through the process in two completely different ways. I have a buddy who expects to birdie every hole, but once he has hit a bad drive, or has missed the green in regulation, he completely loses focus and it does become a negative for him. He seems to think the possibility of a good score on the hole has vanished. When we're partners I try to help him with that but I think it's one of those things you have to figure out on your own ultimately.

Appreciate your thoughts.

 

[davep043]

Its an interesting discussion, how does a specific mental approach help one player and hurt another. I hear players talk about "staying in the moment", and this discussion of expectations seems closely related. So much advice about the mental side of golf relates to controlling the process, and letting the results be what they will be, in the belief that the process will lead to good results. My choice is to focus on my process (choosing the best plan and then executing a good swing), with the belief that if I can do that, I'll make birdies.