-100 to start a PGA tour event for an amateur, could they win

[MtlJeff]

6 minutes ago, smashdn said:

 

I don't mean to brag but there are times I struggle to keep it under 95 on easy layouts.  It's why I am a 15.

 

It really is a magical thing to behold.  I am a little jealous of the people I play with regularly.  I can go from "holy crap this guy can play" to "I am not sure he knows which end of the club to hit the ball with" in a matter of a few holes.  My good shots are pretty decent but my bad shots can be very bad.  And if you can't string 4-5 good shots in a row you just can't score.  The big numbers go on the scorecard but they are rarely offset by little numbers.  A stroke lost is gone forever in my game.

 

So, that Tahoe open deal that is stableford scoring, can we draw any conclusions from that?  Or the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, aren't there some am scores posted?

 

One of my closest friends is a 15 who i play golf with regularly and it's similar. He is a competitive swimmer so is in really good shape, can drive it 280 or so when he hits it well. Just very inconsistent and has pretty much no short game to speak of. 

 

But when the driver is going straight he can string together some nice holes. 

 

One time he was playing in the BB club championship (15+ indexes) as a 15.5, and he shot 35 on the back 9 of the second day for a 79 i think it was. He started the final round with a 20+ shot lead LOL

 

Problem is so many tour events have 75-76 course ratings (or worse). So a 15 is basically starting at 91-92. That's what you're expected to shoot

[smashdn]

His game sounds similar to mine.  When my driver is straight I can play well.  I'm a former baseball player so distance is no issue.  But when it gets off it is bad.  Tops that go to the forward tees if that far or push slices out of the blue.  I am nowhere near as accurate as I need to be with my irons either.  Unless I am 100 yards or closer it is not very likely that I will be on the green.  Near the green most of the time but chipping or pitching on with what should be your birdie stroke leads to pars and a fair share of bogeys as well.  When I play my goal is to always be below 90 and when I play decent I can flirt with the low 80's.

[Obee]

22 hours ago, cardoustie said:

his estimate is low, that would work at a stock course, not a tour event with buried pins, fast greens and high rough

It's actually several strokes too low per round.
 

Using the new system, on a Moderately difficult Tour set-up of 7300, par 72 75.9/149, this is jow many shots a 12 should get from Kisner, a +5.0:

 

Kisner becomes a +3

 

...but the 12 becomes a 20(!)

 

Kisner would actually need to give the 12 92 shots over four rounds on a reasonably tough Tour set up. 

 

 

[Obee]

1 hour ago, MtlJeff said:

 

One of my closest friends is a 15 who i play golf with regularly and it's similar. He is a competitive swimmer so is in really good shape, can drive it 280 or so when he hits it well. Just very inconsistent and has pretty much no short game to speak of. 

 

But when the driver is going straight he can string together some nice holes. 

 

One time he was playing in the BB club championship (15+ indexes) as a 15.5, and he shot 35 on the back 9 of the second day for a 79 i think it was. He started the final round with a 20+ shot lead LOL

 

Problem is so many tour events have 75-76 course ratings (or worse). So a 15 is basically starting at 91-92. That's what you're expected to shoot

Actually, without any mumbo-jumbo, they are expected to shoot quite worse.

 

On a course with a rating of 75.9 and a slope of 149, a 15 index becomes a 24(!) course handicap. A 15 will only break 100 ("shoot his handicap") approximately 1 in 4 times on course like that. 

 

 

[r0scoe]

7 minutes ago, Obee said:

It's actually several strokes too low per round.
 

Using the new system, on a Moderately difficult Tour set-up of 7300, par 72 75.9/149, this is jow many shots a 12 should get from Kisner, a +5.0:

 

Kisner becomes a +3

 

...but the 12 becomes a 20(!)

 

Kisner would actually need to give the 12 92 shots over four rounds on a reasonably tough Tour set up. 

 

 

Right now my unofficial handicap is a 12 (12.8 based on my scorecard app and my last 20 rounds being used). I would put a little money on the line against Kis with that many strokes.

 

One of other question, am I playing off the same tees as Kis or one box up? - I only drive the ball about 250 average

[c7015]

There is golf and then there is tournament golf... but 100 is still a lot 

 

depends on the AM has tourney experience and if there is pressure for him to not F it up IMO

[smashdn]

Deleted.

Edited September 10, 2020 by smashdn
Deleted.

[Hawkeye77]

17 minutes ago, r0scoe said:

Right now my unofficial handicap is a 12 (12.8 based on my scorecard app and my last 20 rounds being used). I would put a little money on the line against Kis with that many strokes.

 

One of other question, am I playing off the same tees as Kis or one box up? - I only drive the ball about 250 average

 

It's a Tour event, so one set of tees. 

[r0scoe]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye77 said:

 

It's a Tour event, so one set of tees. 

So for me, some of those Par 4s are guaranteed bogey or worse. A 533 yd Par 4 is driver, 3 wood or hybrid  and wedge for me unless it's downhill and i can roll to 300 yrds off the tee

[Hawkeye77]

3 minutes ago, r0scoe said:

So for me, some of those Par 4s are guaranteed bogey or worse. A 533 yd Par 4 is driver, 3 wood or hybrid  and wedge for me unless it's downhill and i can roll to 300 yrds off the tee

 

And I was referring to the OP, not sure Kisner was talking about a Tour event - I'd want my regular tees, lol, where my handicap is established if at my course.  He wants to make $100 the hard way, come on out!

 

Hard to keep track of all the fantasy parameters!

[QuigleyDU]

I think Phil Mickelson would have taken that bet as a youngster.. 

 

https://www.pga.com/archive/news/golf-buzz/its-been-27-years-phil-mickelson-won-amateur-pga-tour

 

 

Lots of amateurs have competed in and won PGA events. So the answer could be anything from the end up -120 or the end up +295. There are some really really really really good amateur golfers out there.. There are also some really really really really crappy amateur golfers out there.. 

 

The biggest reason you do not see AM's winning much any more is the min, they think they can win they turn pro so the can cash the check. Look at Wolff and Hovland. AM's to compete in the Masters then the very next week they turn pro. I think the next week Wolff got his first win.. So what is the difference there? Other then saying "hey, I am pro now".. 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by QuigleyDU

[Ferguson]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye77 said:

 

Foundry and bowling? Having The Deer Hunter flashbacks!

 

I knew someone would figure it out.

 

 

2 hours ago, r0scoe said:

 

What about 4. The out of shape tech support guy, with about a 15 handicap, that loves candy and plays 3 days a week?

 

 

# 4 - same people, this time at The Qatar Masters. 

 

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, MtlJeff said:

 

#3 would have no chance. I don't believe they allow you to drink beer during events so that would throw him off. Plus he'd miss a few short putts probably having never practiced them. He very likely would lose 16 shots on one of the days alone (his worst day of the tourney that would easily be the difference)

 

#2 i still wouldn't bet on. the difference between 18 and 22 shots is a lot, a scientist is possibly an introvert who wouldn't like the pressure. Plus i've never met a super fit scientist, so he probably doesn't hit the ball that far and is a guy who plays 6200yd tracks. 

 

#1 A foundry working, Semi-pro bowler is the best chance. This is a guy who probably loves crowds and yells "boom baby" after putting it on the green. He is probably very fit given his foundry job, and almost certainly his body will glisten of oils and probably have a mustache (i imagine in my head this is the bowling scene). So i'd think he can get it out there 250+...At 22 shots a day, that's like starting at -88 right? So if he shoots 90 every day he finishes at -16. That'll win you some tournaments....its possible. Wouldn't bet on it but possible

 

 

 

 

Excellent analysis.   # 1 foundry guy is a real man (uses Prell Classic Shampoo and Right Guard Spray). 

He would give his best or die trying.    

 

 

 

[oikos1]

Lol.  Too funny.  Guessing foundry guy kicks it up a notch on date night and goes with a splash of the Old Spice.

[flgolfer1]

I have played 4 US Open courses in the past year, currently an 8.5 handicap. At all 4 courses played the farthest back available tees (obviously tourney tees are rarely available). I love really hard courses because I am not a great putter (really consistent two putting but rarely one putt) so in our group I am just above middle of the pack on easy courses but almost always score lowest on the hardest courses so I feel pretty good about my chances given 100 strokes.

My scores were:

82 at Pinehurst 2 (frankly should've broken 80 made a stupid double at 17  just tired and lost focus and a couple other thrown away strokes)

88 at Pebble (got absolutely smoked by 25+ mph winds, really really windy would be the one scenario I might get beat with 100 strokes)

81 at Torrey (thought it was a pretty straight forward course, played it right before the Farmers and the 81 did include one free "local" rule drop where we couldn't find the ball in the rough)

83 at The Country Club (really looking forward to playing this one again, the rough smoked me here as almost all my golf is played in the south and just didn't know how to judge it out of that rough around the greens)

[smashdn]

You guys have better opinions of [the work ethic of] foundry guys than I do.

[Hawkeye77]

14 minutes ago, smashdn said:

You guys have better opinions of [the work ethic of] foundry guys than I do.

 

The feed you steel!

 

Steel and pig iron furnaces so hot a man forgets his fear of hell.  When you're hard enough, tough enough, other things, other things  Michaleen.

 

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by Hawkeye77

[smashdn]

Grey iron.  It's not as made out to be.  If you are right up on the furnaces, yeah, it's hot.  We have just the opposite problem in winter, it is freezing cold.  

[Ironman_32]

1 hour ago, flgolfer1 said:

I have played 4 US Open courses in the past year, currently an 8.5 handicap. At all 4 courses played the farthest back available tees (obviously tourney tees are rarely available). I love really hard courses because I am not a great putter (really consistent two putting but rarely one putt) so in our group I am just above middle of the pack on easy courses but almost always score lowest on the hardest courses so I feel pretty good about my chances given 100 strokes.

My scores were:

82 at Pinehurst 2 (frankly should've broken 80 made a stupid double at 17  just tired and lost focus and a couple other thrown away strokes)

88 at Pebble (got absolutely smoked by 25+ mph winds, really really windy would be the one scenario I might get beat with 100 strokes)

81 at Torrey (thought it was a pretty straight forward course, played it right before the Farmers and the 81 did include one free "local" rule drop where we couldn't find the ball in the rough)

83 at The Country Club (really looking forward to playing this one again, the rough smoked me here as almost all my golf is played in the south and just didn't know how to judge it out of that rough around the greens)

I mean, that's an average of 10 over per round give or take...add in tournament conditions, pressure, I put another 10 strokes a round (thats probably being generous), so you might come in around -20 starting at -100. 

[Ironman_32]

3 hours ago, r0scoe said:

So for me, some of those Par 4s are guaranteed bogey or worse. A 533 yd Par 4 is driver, 3 wood or hybrid  and wedge for me unless it's downhill and i can roll to 300 yrds off the tee

But if you had -100 to start with, would you play 4s different? Do you really need to hit driver if its a three shot hole?

 

In this scenario, if I started a -100 and you gave me a bogey on all the fours, and I just had to take the 5s and 3s, I would take in a heartbeat

[flgolfer1]

2 hours ago, Ironman_32 said:

I mean, that's an average of 10 over per round give or take...add in tournament conditions, pressure, I put another 10 strokes a round (thats probably being generous), so you might come in around -20 starting at -100. 

Right so probably finish -10 to -20... to win the US Open by 10 to 15 shots and I'm not even a great am golfer.

[smashdn]

I can't recite where I read this or found this but I want to say the PGA average on par threes is above par.  I don't think many of us are taking those on as birdie holes.

[Ironman_32]

16 hours ago, smashdn said:

I can't recite where I read this or found this but I want to say the PGA average on par threes is above par.  I don't think many of us are taking those on as birdie holes.

I think it was around 2005, Tiger's lifetime score to par on the PGA to 4s was ~-100 under, 5s was -1500, and 3s were -12 (I remember the 12 bc I thought it was crazy high). 

 

But makes sense, harder the further you get away from the hole; how many times do these guys have 220 into a par 4; look at East Lake last week, that one par 3 over water looked very difficult

[HappyGilmoresBoots]

https://www.xgolfsimulator.com/course-list/

 

We can test this...

[LeoLeo99]

I'll take Obee -100 and bet my house on him.  Almost as sure a bet as last night's Chiefs +101 over the Texans.  

[isaacbm]

Well, based on the U.S. Open that is currently happening. The worst amateur in the field would be -29 after two days. And the best would be -42. 
The average amateur in the field would be leading by 32 after 36 holes! Lol

 

100? LMAO!!   
 

I guess the thread should be at what handicap does an amateur need to be spotted 100 shots to contend in a PGA tour event.

Edited September 19, 2020 by isaacbm

[isaacbm]

On 9/11/2020 at 7:56 AM, LeoLeo99 said:

I'll take Obee -100 and bet my house on him.  Almost as sure a bet as last night's Chiefs +101 over the Texans.  

I don’t know if I’d take that bet. If Obee  had to walk Four rounds of golf four days in a row I think he might be hospitalized! 

 I would put the over under at 42 holes where he would have to withdraw.

    Now with a cart it’s a no brainer!

Edited September 19, 2020 by isaacbm

[LeoLeo99]

5 minutes ago, isaacbm said:

I don’t know if I’d take that bet. If Obee  had to walk Four rounds of golf four days in a row I think he might be hospitalized! 

 I would put the over under at 42 holes where he would have to withdraw.

    Now with a cart it’s a no brainer!

 

Admittedly, did not factor in the fitness aspect of walking 72 holes in 4 days.  I don't know Obee well enough to bust his chops about his fitness level or bag full of tiny head covers but hopefully it's nothing a fitness regime couldn't fix in a few months.  

[Obee]

1 hour ago, isaacbm said:

I don’t know if I’d take that bet. If Obee  had to walk Four rounds of golf four days in a row I think he might be hospitalized! 

 I would put the over under at 42 holes where he would have to withdraw.

    Now with a cart it’s a no brainer!

Hey! I just walked six rounds in five days at Bandon, and I was fresh as a daisy the entire time!

[Shilgy]

4 hours ago, Obee said:

Hey! I just walked six rounds in five days at Bandon, and I was fresh as a daisy the entire time!

[HackDaddy360]

On 9/9/2020 at 12:36 AM, Jason280 said:

I'm not scratch, but give me 100 strokes and I have a very decent chance.  Granted, I'm going out there with the mindset of playing defensive/bogey golf, and would likely hit 2 iron on anything not a par 3.  

 

Regardless, it depends a lot on the actual course....but give me a couple practice rounds and it would be a very interesting experiment. 

agree.  I carry a +1.4 index but that’s aggressive mid swing change.  Call it a 1 Trending sideways.  If I had two weeks to practice and we were playing some run of the mill, non-major event - I’d absolutely take that bet.  
 

The event in Palm Springs would be a good example.   I’d take a 100 shot lead all day.  Go out and post some low-stress, high 70s rounds and finish 70-80 under.  Or pick any other course with gettable par 5s and has at least four of them.