Rory's major drought

[stinger_gc]

I can't wrap my head around the fact that Rory Mcilory hasn't won a major in 7 years. It seems like he's won everything except a major since 2015. Since the end of 2014 Rory has 11 PGA Tour wins including a Players Championship and 2 WGC's, 13 top 10s in majors and 2 Fedex Cups. What exactly is the issue here? It seems like most 10s in majors are him getting hot on the weekend when he's out of it or blowing up when he's near the lead like Torrey Pines this year. Is this just a mental block or is it possible that Rory never wins another major?

[golfer929]

I made the prediction in 2016 that he would never win another one and got laughed at. I also said DJ or Jason Day wouldn't win a major again, so to be fair, I was wrong on 1 of those. Check my profile for proof..

[bscinstnct]

The 3 missed US Open cuts in a row in 16, 17, 18 underline the reason.

 

His totally putting fell off a cliff.

 

He was never a great putter but being elite SG tee to green, his ball striking was so off the charts, he could still be tot SG and win majors ranking like 100 in putting.

 

In 2014, he ranked 40 in putting and won 2 majors. 
 

And keep in mind all his majors were on slow greens.

 

But in 2016 and 2017, the bottom fell out on his putting. He ranked 139 and 159 and lost strokes on the green. That’s dead in majors.

 

He really got it together in 2019, 4 wins, putted well, 1st SG total. Shame he couldn’t win a major. 
 

Cold putter last year, not great all around. He definitely seemed lost but always hanging around he’s so good.

 

See if he can settle in. He’s as good as anybody out there now. But the issue in majors, at least besides the open, is fast greens. 

Edited October 20, 2021 by bscinstnct

[oikos1]

Yeah, but strokes gained says putting isn't that big of a deal.  Just gotta get hot at the right time.  Seven years and still hasn't timed it right. 🤣🤣🤣

[jobin]

Nearly all human activity must conform to 'maybe yes/maybe no'.

 

IMO, ole Tiger will forever regret not hiring a driver for that ride to the golf course last February. If he must walk 72 holes over 4 days, and hit golf balls during his off days, he will never be able to compete again, on the main PGA tour.

 

But will Rory win the Masters and elevate to 'ultra elite' status?  Jack did win at age 46, Tiger did win at age 44 and Rory is now  32 years.  So Rory has a chance.

[phizzy30]

Rory's putter got hot at the CJ Cup @ Summit.  The guy wins when he doesn't suck @ss at putting because like you guys said, he's absolutely brilliant from tee to green.  I know the odds are stacked against him, but I predict that he will win at least one major in 2022.  

Edited October 20, 2021 by phizzy30

[tiderider]

40 minutes ago, golfer929 said:

I made the prediction in 2016 that he would never win another one and got laughed at. I also said DJ or Jason Day wouldn't win a major again, so to be fair, I was wrong on 1 of those. Check my profile for proof..

so edgy ... so brave ... 

[Valtiel]

24 minutes ago, phizzy30 said:

Rory's putter got hot at the CJ Cup @ Summit.  The guy wins when he doesn't suck @ss at putting because like you guys said, he's absolutely brilliant from tee to green.

 

39 minutes ago, bscinstnct said:

His totally putting fell off a cliff.

Yup, and Rory has the interesting little push/pull with his shorter approaches and proximity to the hole:



Rory is basically elite outside the two random roulette wheels he has going with his wedges and his putter. When his putter is hot, all of this pretty much goes away. When his putter is hot AND his wedges cooperate, he wins and often wins big, because his long clubs are pretty evergreen. But when he starts airmailing/spinning off of greens from 100y and his putter is a little cold, it sinks quickly. His play around the greens is always "good", but rarely elite enough to make up for approach/putting issues. 

Hopefully his swing work shores up those inconsistencies a bit, because it's really only those two very obviously streaky elements that keep him from being on the first page every week. But then again, most pros have their one or two things that keep them from getting to the next level, so...🤷‍♂️

[bscinstnct]

33 minutes ago, oikos1 said:

Yeah, but strokes gained says putting isn't that big of a deal.  Just gotta get hot at the right time.  Seven years and still hasn't timed it right. 🤣🤣🤣

 

Yes, well, the problem is the stats tell a story. You go from picking up 2 strokes a tournament putting to losing 2 strokes, tough to beat BK and Jordan dropping bombs 💣 on your head ; )

 

But 2019 you have a good point. 4 wins and 2.5 SG total per round? That’s nosebleed territory. Shame it didn’t come together at a major.

 

I think the odds are good he wins a couple more. Rory freakin good man. Gotta bear down though. 

[oikos1]

12 minutes ago, bscinstnct said:

 

Yes, well, the problem is the stats tell a story. You go from picking up 2 strokes a tournament putting to losing 2 strokes, tough to beat BK and Jordan dropping bombs 💣 on your head ; )

 

But 2019 you have a good point. 4 wins and 2.5 SG total per round? That’s nosebleed territory. Shame it didn’t come together at a major.

 

I think the odds are good he wins a couple more. Rory freakin good man. Gotta bear down though. 

Totally agree.  Seems like he could stumble into a few major wins over the next ten years.  In the end though, not quite what was projected for him when he first arrived on the scene. 

[ShowMe]

He tried to bulk up and be like his hero, Tiger.  Hasn't been the same since.

[golfer929]

1 hour ago, tiderider said:

so edgy ... so brave ... 

Don't be upset because I was able to stare into the crystal ball regarding Rory!

[bscinstnct]

9 minutes ago, ShowMe said:

He tried to bulk up and be like his hero, Tiger.  Hasn't been the same since.

Ha, no, chubby Rory was dope. But fitness Rory won 2 majors in 2014. 
 

And he didn’t “bulk”, more like de-bulked. 
 

Here RM in 2014. Nice do 🤣
 

 

[phizzy30]

24 minutes ago, ShowMe said:

He tried to bulk up and be like his hero, Tiger.  Hasn't been the same since.

He's 5'9, 165 max.  I would hardly called that bulked up.  He's ripped af though and the longest he's ever been off the tee. 

[oikos1]

This makes me feel really old:

 

[cdnglf]

25 minutes ago, golfer929 said:

Don't be upset because I was able to stare into the crystal ball regarding Rory!

 

[Ironman_32]

I saw that stat last week that at age 32 (Rory's age), he and Phil had around the same wins, but Phil had zero majors and Rory has 4. 

 

I get the point that stat was trying to make. However, I think, has anyone outside of Tiger (or maybe Jack) gone on a major run, had a drought, then came back to win more majors?

 

I was doing a back of the envelope analysis/thinking the other day. Rory's so young and has so much money, if he keeps playing and investing wisely there  is a good chance he'll wind up having a billion dollars. Seems to be a guy that if you gave him enough money he would stop playing. 

 

 

[ShowMe]

53 minutes ago, phizzy30 said:

He's 5'9, 165 max.  I would hardly called that bulked up.  He's ripped af though and the longest he's ever been off the tee. 

 

"Tried" being the key word in my sentence.  He was lifting for 90 minutes at a time, ten times a week.  Way too much.  He's cut it back since.

[Valtiel]

3 hours ago, ShowMe said:

He tried to bulk up and be like his hero, Tiger.  Hasn't been the same since.

 

2 hours ago, ShowMe said:

 

"Tried" being the key word in my sentence.  He was lifting for 90 minutes at a time, ten times a week.  Way too much.  He's cut it back since.

In what ways? The 90 minute lifting sessions 10x a week looks like it was an early/mid 2015 story, and that does correlate with the decline in his putting, but when we look at him on paper as a whole, it has really been the same story since he initially broke out. Yes his putting was good in 2014 and lousy in the several years that followed during the lifting times, but it was lousy in 2013 as well. 2019 he was great on the greens and then 2020 was mediocre again. So his "loss of form" during the time when he was lifting a lot seems to be rooted in putting given that most of his other stats were steady, but putting has always been his main issue, chubby or not. 😅

[tacklingdummy]

In the CJ Cup post win interview, he alluded to the fact that he wasn't being himself of late and that his brand of golf is good enough to win and be on top. I think he was referring to chasing distance (because of Bryson) and that his ball striking was not as good because of it. 

[Dave230]

8 hours ago, golfer929 said:

I made the prediction in 2016 that he would never win another one and got laughed at. I also said DJ or Jason Day wouldn't win a major again, so to be fair, I was wrong on 1 of those. Check my profile for proof..

He's only 32 though, so probably a while to gloat quite just yet.

[iBanesto]

We've all been through a dry spell...

[Dave230]

5 hours ago, Ironman_32 said:

I saw that stat last week that at age 32 (Rory's age), he and Phil had around the same wins, but Phil had zero majors and Rory has 4. 

 

I get the point that stat was trying to make. However, I think, has anyone outside of Tiger (or maybe Jack) gone on a major run, had a drought, then came back to win more majors?

 

I was doing a back of the envelope analysis/thinking the other day. Rory's so young and has so much money, if he keeps playing and investing wisely there  is a good chance he'll wind up having a billion dollars. Seems to be a guy that if you gave him enough money he would stop playing. 

 

 

Lee Trevino won his last major 10 years after his previous one. Ernie Els won his last major 10 years after his previous one. Phil Mickelson won his last major 8 years after his previous one.

[ColinKelvin]

Obviously Rory could win more majors and may do so at any time.

 

However, after seven years I reckon the pressure he puts himself under (especially at the Masters) hinders his wedges and putting when it matters.  He won his four when he was young and fearless and just enjoying himself; the opposite of now when he's the older guy with high expectations for himself, and a whole generation of young fearless bucks to compete against.

 

His first round nonsense in many (most?) majors is obviously also a big problem, as is the fact that at the Open he doesn't like it when the wind blows.  Always thought that was really odd for someone from NI.

[AUTIGER07]

I've been a huge fan of his since pretty much the beginning of his time on tour in 2007. He's an extremely classy kid whose parents "raised him right". If you would tell me after the 2014 PGA that he wouldn't win another major for the next 7 years I would've put an awful lot of money down on that being "no chance in hell".

 

I hope I'm wrong but my gut tells me that he'll win 2-3 more majors but he won't complete the slam by winning the Masters. As mentioned above, his wedge game isn't good and combined with a streaky putter it's not a combination for winning at Augusta. If he could improve his ranking inside 150 yards and have a good week on the greens then I could see him winning there. Just don't think it's likely.

 

What I do think will happen is winning a few PGA's and maybe 1 more Open. The PGA has the best chance of being soggy and he can attack it similar to what he did at Kiawah. 

[cdnglf]

4 hours ago, Dave230 said:

Lee Trevino won his last major 10 years after his previous one. Ernie Els won his last major 10 years after his previous one. Phil Mickelson won his last major 8 years after his previous one.

Trevino and Els were the first two names that came to mind for me. Stewart, Irwin, Sarazen are some others.

[Ironman_32]

4 hours ago, Dave230 said:

Lee Trevino won his last major 10 years after his previous one. Ernie Els won his last major 10 years after his previous one. Phil Mickelson won his last major 8 years after his previous one.

I get your point, let me clarify...I meant go on a major run, meaning win 3,4,5 or more. Everyone seems to win them at a certain time, then maybe they pick up one more. Mickelson, Tiger, Trevino, all these guys one last one, but they didn't go on another run in their career. Phil basically won his first 5 in five years, Brooks 4 over 3 years, Els kind of picked them off. Seve won 4 in 5 years, then added one down the line. What I'm saying is Rory has 4 now, will he go on another tear and win 3,4,5,6...get to 10 majors? Who had done that before. It's not like it gets easier every year. 

 

(not to drive the point home, but Trevino last major, Els last major, Phil last major...I said major(s) haha; not saying Rory won't win a another major, just thinking multiple)

[stinger_gc]

6 minutes ago, AUTIGER07 said:

I've been a huge fan of his since pretty much the beginning of his time on tour in 2007. He's an extremely classy kid whose parents "raised him right". If you would tell me after the 2014 PGA that he wouldn't win another major for the next 7 years I would've put an awful lot of money down on that being "no chance in hell".

 

I hope I'm wrong but my gut tells me that he'll win 2-3 more majors but he won't complete the slam by winning the Masters. As mentioned above, his wedge game isn't good and combined with a streaky putter it's not a combination for winning at Augusta. If he could improve his ranking inside 150 yards and have a good week on the greens then I could see him winning there. Just don't think it's likely.

 

What I do think will happen is winning a few PGA's and maybe 1 more Open. The PGA has the best chance of being soggy and he can attack it similar to what he did at Kiawah. 

I think 2022-25 is his window to go on another run. The next 2 Open Championship venues are perfect for him (St. Andrews and Liverpool), in 2024 the PGA is at Valhalla and in 2025 it's at Quail Hollow (2 courses he's won on). I don't know if Rory will ever win a green jacket. He always has a round where he blows up at Augusta and shoots himself out of the tournament. I think it was 2016 when he shot -4 for 3 rounds but blew up on Saturday with 76 or 77. Going back to 2014, Rory has shot like 24 rounds under par at Augusta which is crazy.  

[woodriff]

6 hours ago, tacklingdummy said:

In the CJ Cup post win interview, he alluded to the fact that he wasn't being himself of late and that his brand of golf is good enough to win and be on top. I think he was referring to chasing distance (because of Bryson) and that his ball striking was not as good because of it. 

His type of thinking now is key. I expect him on leaderboards this year. Reveals a lot about “play with what you’ve got”

[Ferguson]

All the talent in the world, but no idea how to remain in his lane, stay focused and keep wining the big ones.  Then he got married.  When I heard he was consulting with Brad Faxon I almost threw up.  Fax is NOT a winner.   His career will be defined by what could have been.