Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

[CallawayLefty]

I just e-mailed the Golf Channel to propose this as an idea for a segment on the Morning Drive. They have the connections to make this happen, and we just need to see this settled on the course!

[bluedot]

When is this post going to die? It is obvious that 4 HC male CAN beat an LPGA player.

 

There, I fixed it for you.

 

Take a 4 HC male that averages 270 carry and put him on his home course, playing from the back tees. I've played with plenty of these guys. Put him up against the 150th ranked LPGA pro, who probably hits it about 240 carry. Have her play the same back tees.

 

I'll put my money on the 4 HC male.

 

Sigh....

 

Hey, Obee, you think YOU'RE sighing? I AM a 4 who regularly plays against an LPGA player, except I play her with a single digit partner from shorter tees than she's playing, and she plays our best ball. We NEVER win, and if we moved back, she'd beat us worse!

 

I think the problem here is that we have WAY too many people that don't understand the difference between a 4 index and a scratch or plus 1 or 2 index. Think Pacific Ocean, but bigger...

[CallawayLefty]

When is this post going to die? It is obvious that 4 HC male CAN beat an LPGA player.

 

There, I fixed it for you.

 

Take a 4 HC male that averages 270 carry and put him on his home course, playing from the back tees. I've played with plenty of these guys. Put him up against the 150th ranked LPGA pro, who probably hits it about 240 carry. Have her play the same back tees.

 

I'll put my money on the 4 HC male.

 

Sigh....

 

Hey, Obee, you think YOU'RE sighing? I AM a 4 who regularly plays against an LPGA player, except I play her with a single digit partner from shorter tees than she's playing, and she plays our best ball. We NEVER win, and if we moved back, she'd beat us worse!

 

I think the problem here is that we have WAY too many people that don't understand the difference between a 4 index and a scratch or plus 1 or 2 index. Think Pacific Ocean, but bigger...

 

So you're trying to tell me you don't shoot in the 60s when you move up a tee box? Because everyone knows that 4 handicaps are the silent killers of the golf world from inside 6,500 yards.

[CallawayLefty]

You know, I've had some time to rethink my position here. I know I've been siding with science to guide my opinion that the 4 handicap would lose literally 100% of the time, but I've changed my mind. Now that Tiger Woods plays off of a 4 handicap, I do think it's possible for a 4 handicap to beat an LPGA player.

 

It's good to finally have that right in my head.

[bluedot]

When is this post going to die? It is obvious that 4 HC male CAN beat an LPGA player.

 

There, I fixed it for you.

 

Take a 4 HC male that averages 270 carry and put him on his home course, playing from the back tees. I've played with plenty of these guys. Put him up against the 150th ranked LPGA pro, who probably hits it about 240 carry. Have her play the same back tees.

 

I'll put my money on the 4 HC male.

 

Ah, the elusive "averages 270 carry" 4 handicap. Now living somewhere in Tibet with Elvis, Bigfoot, Jimmy Hoffa, and a herd of unicorns.

 

Try to remember that the carry average on Tour is 275, and the overall driving distance average is 288.

[CallawayLefty]

When is this post going to die? It is obvious that 4 HC male CAN beat an LPGA player.

 

There, I fixed it for you.

 

Take a 4 HC male that averages 270 carry and put him on his home course, playing from the back tees. I've played with plenty of these guys. Put him up against the 150th ranked LPGA pro, who probably hits it about 240 carry. Have her play the same back tees.

 

I'll put my money on the 4 HC male.

 

Ah, the elusive "averages 270 carry" 4 handicap. Now living somewhere in Tibet with Elvis, Bigfoot, Jimmy Hoffa, and a herd of unicorns.

 

Try to remember that the carry average on Tour is 275, and the overall driving distance average is 288.

 

To be fair, Tibet has a pretty high elevation, so it's much easier for the elusive 4 handicap to carry it 270 there.

[TheGeekGolfer]

When is this post going to die? It is obvious that 4 HC male CAN beat an LPGA player.

 

There, I fixed it for you.

 

Take a 4 HC male that averages 270 carry and put him on his home course, playing from the back tees. I've played with plenty of these guys. Put him up against the 150th ranked LPGA pro, who probably hits it about 240 carry. Have her play the same back tees.

 

I'll put my money on the 4 HC male.

 

Sigh....

 

Hey, Obee, you think YOU'RE sighing? I AM a 4 who regularly plays against an LPGA player, except I play her with a single digit partner from shorter tees than she's playing, and she plays our best ball. We NEVER win, and if we moved back, she'd beat us worse!

 

I think the problem here is that we have WAY too many people that don't understand the difference between a 4 index and a scratch or plus 1 or 2 index. Think Pacific Ocean, but bigger...

 

So you're trying to tell me you don't shoot in the 60s when you move up a tee box? Because everyone knows that 4 handicaps are the silent killers of the golf world from inside 6,500 yards.

 

It is harder to 'score better' significantly by moving up a set of tee boxes. It is much more likely to score significantly worse if you move back. If you take a shorter hitter and have them move back a tee box, they are more likely to add more strokes to their score than the person moving up has the ability to gain. Why, it's really math. You can only gain X number of shots putting, especially if you are just an average putter. You have a greater potential to lose shots by moving back a tee box and making bigger numbers, like double and triple bogeys. You can only realistically gain 1 stroke on a hole you normally might par by moving up a tee box and birdie it. However, if you move back a tee box you can put up a double or triple and wipe out 3 holes you might 'gain'.

 

This is why I would take the LPGA player 80% of the time in a match-play situation. The holes they might double bogey won't matter and they'll make it up with their short game. However, in a stroke-play match, I stand by my earlier post.

[TheGeekGolfer]

When is this post going to die? It is obvious that 4 HC male CAN beat an LPGA player.

 

There, I fixed it for you.

 

Take a 4 HC male that averages 270 carry and put him on his home course, playing from the back tees. I've played with plenty of these guys. Put him up against the 150th ranked LPGA pro, who probably hits it about 240 carry. Have her play the same back tees.

 

I'll put my money on the 4 HC male.

 

Ah, the elusive "averages 270 carry" 4 handicap. Now living somewhere in Tibet with Elvis, Bigfoot, Jimmy Hoffa, and a herd of unicorns.

 

Try to remember that the carry average on Tour is 275, and the overall driving distance average is 288.

 

I play with plenty of guys who are 4-5 handicap and they have a 270 yard carry. They have the swing speed and power for the distance, just not the time / talent currently to put in the work to get down to a scratch or better. They fall off on the iron play, putting, chips, and some mental mistakes. Come on... really.

[CallawayLefty]

When is this post going to die? It is obvious that 4 HC male CAN beat an LPGA player.

 

There, I fixed it for you.

 

Take a 4 HC male that averages 270 carry and put him on his home course, playing from the back tees. I've played with plenty of these guys. Put him up against the 150th ranked LPGA pro, who probably hits it about 240 carry. Have her play the same back tees.

 

I'll put my money on the 4 HC male.

 

Ah, the elusive "averages 270 carry" 4 handicap. Now living somewhere in Tibet with Elvis, Bigfoot, Jimmy Hoffa, and a herd of unicorns.

 

Try to remember that the carry average on Tour is 275, and the overall driving distance average is 288.

 

I play with plenty of guys who are 4-5 handicap and they have a 270 yard carry. They have the swing speed and power for the distance, just not the time / talent currently to put in the work to get down to a scratch or better. They fall off on the iron play, putting, chips, and some mental mistakes. Come on... really.

 

I play with plenty of guys who are 4-5 handicaps that think they have a 270 yard carry that actually carry it 235. They do not have the swing speed for distance, nor the time/talent to get down to scratch or better. And like you said, they fall off on all other aspects of the game.

 

By comparison, LPGA players play golf professionally, have their carries measured by actual tracking devices, and play at a level exceeding male scratch. Their iron play, putting, chips, and ability to avoid mental mistakes reflect their status as people who play the game professionally.

 

Come on....really.

[TheGeekGolfer]

When is this post going to die? It is obvious that 4 HC male CAN beat an LPGA player.

 

There, I fixed it for you.

 

Take a 4 HC male that averages 270 carry and put him on his home course, playing from the back tees. I've played with plenty of these guys. Put him up against the 150th ranked LPGA pro, who probably hits it about 240 carry. Have her play the same back tees.

 

I'll put my money on the 4 HC male.

 

Sigh....

 

Hey, Obee, you think YOU'RE sighing? I AM a 4 who regularly plays against an LPGA player, except I play her with a single digit partner from shorter tees than she's playing, and she plays our best ball. We NEVER win, and if we moved back, she'd beat us worse!

 

I think the problem here is that we have WAY too many people that don't understand the difference between a 4 index and a scratch or plus 1 or 2 index. Think Pacific Ocean, but bigger...

 

This is the WORST argument. The 'I am xxx' so therefore, it's not possible. I hear this all the time in the computer field. "I've never gotten a virus with xxx antivirus, therefore, it's the best antivirus and you will never get a virus with it."

[CallawayLefty]

 

It is harder to 'score better' significantly by moving up a set of tee boxes. It is much more likely to score significantly worse if you move back. If you take a shorter hitter and have them move back a tee box, they are more likely to add more strokes to their score than the person moving up has the ability to gain. Why, it's really math. You can only gain X number of shots putting, especially if you are just an average putter. You have a greater potential to lose shots by moving back a tee box and making bigger numbers, like double and triple bogeys. You can only realistically gain 1 stroke on a hole you normally might par by moving up a tee box and birdie it. However, if you move back a tee box you can put up a double or triple and wipe out 3 holes you might 'gain'.

 

This is why I would take the LPGA player 80% of the time in a match-play situation. The holes they might double bogey won't matter and they'll make it up with their short game. However, in a stroke-play match, I stand by my earlier post.

 

So the 4 handicap male improves if you move him up a box and back a box? This thread has really made me realize how talented 4 handicaps are. They have the ability to carry it 270, they thrive in any course length you throw at them, and they are really just pro golfers who don't have the time to get better. They can do literally anything in this game, other than shave off that ~1 shot necessary to take them to 3.9 or better.

[Hot Rod 71]

What the average player thinks he carries the ball and what he actual does are normal two very different numbers in my experience. Unless you have been on a LM its really difficult to know for sure.

 

The average player uses the tee marker and fairway markers to gauge their carry and total distance, which provides a distance that is completely wrong most of the time.

[jt2gt]

 

 

 

 

I play with plenty of guys who are 4-5 handicap and they have a 270 yard carry. They have the swing speed and power for the distance, just not the time / talent currently to put in the work to get down to a scratch or better. They fall off on the iron play, putting, chips, and some mental mistakes. Come on... really.

 

I play with plenty of guys who are 4-5 handicaps that think they have a 270 yard carry that actually carry it 235. They do not have the swing speed for distance, nor the time/talent to get down to scratch or better. And like you said, they fall off on all other aspects of the game.

 

By comparison, LPGA players play golf professionally, have their carries measured by actual tracking devices, and play at a level exceeding male scratch. Their iron play, putting, chips, and ability to avoid mental mistakes reflect their status as people who play the game professionally.

 

Come on....really.

 

These two posts are the epitome of this thread (and for that matter, american politics).

[TheGeekGolfer]

Betting straight up on the 4 is asinine.. I would need the following conditions to be met for me to ever consider laying coin on the 4 cap: He would have to be a naturally talented 4 with legitimate speed. He would have to be the kind of 4 who will be scratch in the not-too-distant future (motivated, confident, knowledgeable). They would have to play from 7150+; or perhaps at that course in the Bahamas where they played the Pure Silk (because I have no doubt that with their A game there are certain 4 caps who could do better than the 1st round 78 Gulbis posted on a course where he could reach all 5 par 5's in 2 and probably drive a couple of the 4's). And then I'm going to need 50:1 odds or better to make it worth the wager lol

 

No, I wouldn't take 'any 4 hdcp', that's like saying I'll take the LPGA only if she's in the top 20. Like any bet, you would scout the competitors and make a wager based on that. However, the question asked is "Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?". There are a lot of LPGA pros that can't break par and only carry driver 220 yards. They are 'pro', rookies that need some work on the tour. They have potential to be good players, but the top to bottom difference on the LPGA is quite the large ravine. Unfortunately, this holds true for many female sports. I'm not saying this to 'bash' females. It is just a function of potential earnings for the number of people wanting to make professional sports their livelihood,

[TheGeekGolfer]

It is harder to 'score better' significantly by moving up a set of tee boxes. It is much more likely to score significantly worse if you move back. If you take a shorter hitter and have them move back a tee box, they are more likely to add more strokes to their score than the person moving up has the ability to gain. Why, it's really math. You can only gain X number of shots putting, especially if you are just an average putter. You have a greater potential to lose shots by moving back a tee box and making bigger numbers, like double and triple bogeys. You can only realistically gain 1 stroke on a hole you normally might par by moving up a tee box and birdie it. However, if you move back a tee box you can put up a double or triple and wipe out 3 holes you might 'gain'.

 

This is why I would take the LPGA player 80% of the time in a match-play situation. The holes they might double bogey won't matter and they'll make it up with their short game. However, in a stroke-play match, I stand by my earlier post.

 

So the 4 handicap male improves if you move him up a box and back a box? This thread has really made me realize how talented 4 handicaps are. They have the ability to carry it 270, they thrive in any course length you throw at them, and they are really just pro golfers who don't have the time to get better. They can do literally anything in this game, other than shave off that ~1 shot necessary to take them to 3.9 or better.

Where did I say that? I said any person has the potential to shoot a better score if they move up a tee box, there is just a greater chance to shoot a significantly worse score if they move back a tee box. You can only make x number of birdies, picking up a few shots. You can make more doubles and triples moving back which will negate any gain, in less holes. than if they had moved up a tee box.

[DavePelz4]

Let's rename it to "Could a male 4-handicapper beat Michelle Wie RIGHT NOW"?

 

It should be changed to "Could a male 4 HDCP beat Tiger..."

 

There would only be 1 reply needed...YES

[CallawayLefty]

Betting straight up on the 4 is asinine.. I would need the following conditions to be met for me to ever consider laying coin on the 4 cap: He would have to be a naturally talented 4 with legitimate speed. He would have to be the kind of 4 who will be scratch in the not-too-distant future (motivated, confident, knowledgeable). They would have to play from 7150+; or perhaps at that course in the Bahamas where they played the Pure Silk (because I have no doubt that with their A game there are certain 4 caps who could do better than the 1st round 78 Gulbis posted on a course where he could reach all 5 par 5's in 2 and probably drive a couple of the 4's). And then I'm going to need 50:1 odds or better to make it worth the wager lol

 

No, I wouldn't take 'any 4 hdcp', that's like saying I'll take the LPGA only if she's in the top 20. Like any bet, you would scout the competitors and make a wager based on that. However, the question asked is "Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?". There are a lot of LPGA pros that can't break par and only carry driver 220 yards. They are 'pro', rookies that need some work on the tour. They have potential to be good players, but the top to bottom difference on the LPGA is quite the large ravine. Unfortunately, this holds true for many female sports. I'm not saying this to 'bash' females. It is just a function of potential earnings for the number of people wanting to make professional sports their livelihood,

 

4 handicap "competitors," meaning people who play as 4 handicaps in tournaments, are fairly easy to identify. They're called "scratch golfers." Real 4 handicaps shoot 87 in tournaments.

[deadsolid...shank]

Betting straight up on the 4 is asinine.. I would need the following conditions to be met for me to ever consider laying coin on the 4 cap: He would have to be a naturally talented 4 with legitimate speed. He would have to be the kind of 4 who will be scratch in the not-too-distant future (motivated, confident, knowledgeable). They would have to play from 7150+; or perhaps at that course in the Bahamas where they played the Pure Silk (because I have no doubt that with their A game there are certain 4 caps who could do better than the 1st round 78 Gulbis posted on a course where he could reach all 5 par 5's in 2 and probably drive a couple of the 4's). And then I'm going to need 50:1 odds or better to make it worth the wager lol

 

No, I wouldn't take 'any 4 hdcp', that's like saying I'll take the LPGA only if she's in the top 20. Like any bet, you would scout the competitors and make a wager based on that. However, the question asked is "Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?". There are a lot of LPGA pros that can't break par and only carry driver 220 yards. They are 'pro', rookies that need some work on the tour. They have potential to be good players, but the top to bottom difference on the LPGA is quite the large ravine. Unfortunately, this holds true for many female sports. I'm not saying this to 'bash' females. It is just a function of potential earnings for the number of people wanting to make professional sports their livelihood,

 

4 handicap "competitors," meaning people who play as 4 handicaps in tournaments, are fairly easy to identify. They're called "scratch golfers." Real 4 handicaps shoot 87 in tournaments.

 

No. Real fours rarely shoot 87 in tournaments. They might shoot 80 or 82even 84 or 85, but if it's a legit handicap they're likely not blowing up to close to 90. . Maybe on a rare occasion. But since it's apparently ok to use hyperbole in the bad direction, I've also seen a four shoot 67 in tournament

[CallawayLefty]

Betting straight up on the 4 is asinine.. I would need the following conditions to be met for me to ever consider laying coin on the 4 cap: He would have to be a naturally talented 4 with legitimate speed. He would have to be the kind of 4 who will be scratch in the not-too-distant future (motivated, confident, knowledgeable). They would have to play from 7150+; or perhaps at that course in the Bahamas where they played the Pure Silk (because I have no doubt that with their A game there are certain 4 caps who could do better than the 1st round 78 Gulbis posted on a course where he could reach all 5 par 5's in 2 and probably drive a couple of the 4's). And then I'm going to need 50:1 odds or better to make it worth the wager lol

 

No, I wouldn't take 'any 4 hdcp', that's like saying I'll take the LPGA only if she's in the top 20. Like any bet, you would scout the competitors and make a wager based on that. However, the question asked is "Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?". There are a lot of LPGA pros that can't break par and only carry driver 220 yards. They are 'pro', rookies that need some work on the tour. They have potential to be good players, but the top to bottom difference on the LPGA is quite the large ravine. Unfortunately, this holds true for many female sports. I'm not saying this to 'bash' females. It is just a function of potential earnings for the number of people wanting to make professional sports their livelihood,

 

4 handicap "competitors," meaning people who play as 4 handicaps in tournaments, are fairly easy to identify. They're called "scratch golfers." Real 4 handicaps shoot 87 in tournaments.

 

No. Real fours rarely shoot 87 in tournaments. They might shoot 80 or 82even 84 or 85, but if it's a legit handicap they're likely not blowing up to close to 90. . Maybe on a rare occasion. But since it's apparently ok to use hyperbole in the bad direction, I've also seen a four shoot 67 in tournament

 

Yeah, almost edited. 87 would be a rarity. 82 would be par for the course (pardon the pun).

[deadsolid...shank]

Betting straight up on the 4 is asinine.. I would need the following conditions to be met for me to ever consider laying coin on the 4 cap: He would have to be a naturally talented 4 with legitimate speed. He would have to be the kind of 4 who will be scratch in the not-too-distant future (motivated, confident, knowledgeable). They would have to play from 7150+; or perhaps at that course in the Bahamas where they played the Pure Silk (because I have no doubt that with their A game there are certain 4 caps who could do better than the 1st round 78 Gulbis posted on a course where he could reach all 5 par 5's in 2 and probably drive a couple of the 4's). And then I'm going to need 50:1 odds or better to make it worth the wager lol

 

No, I wouldn't take 'any 4 hdcp', that's like saying I'll take the LPGA only if she's in the top 20. Like any bet, you would scout the competitors and make a wager based on that. However, the question asked is "Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?". There are a lot of LPGA pros that can't break par and only carry driver 220 yards. They are 'pro', rookies that need some work on the tour. They have potential to be good players, but the top to bottom difference on the LPGA is quite the large ravine. Unfortunately, this holds true for many female sports. I'm not saying this to 'bash' females. It is just a function of potential earnings for the number of people wanting to make professional sports their livelihood,

 

4 handicap "competitors," meaning people who play as 4 handicaps in tournaments, are fairly easy to identify. They're called "scratch golfers." Real 4 handicaps shoot 87 in tournaments.

 

No. Real fours rarely shoot 87 in tournaments. They might shoot 80 or 82even 84 or 85, but if it's a legit handicap they're likely not blowing up to close to 90. . Maybe on a rare occasion. But since it's apparently ok to use hyperbole in the bad direction, I've also seen a four shoot 67 in tournament

 

Yeah, almost edited. 87 would be a rarity. 82 would be par for the course (pardon the pun).

 

I would think would be pretty close for the average four in a tournament. Although I also do believe that there are some who do play better in a more formal, tournament like setting. And obviously, many more who don't.

[PJ72]

What the average player thinks he carries the ball and what he actual does are normal two very different numbers in my experience. Unless you have been on a LM its really difficult to know for sure.

 

The average player uses the tee marker and fairway markers to gauge their carry and total distance, which provides a distance that is completely wrong most of the time.

 

Or you could pitch onto a green 270 yards away. I've done it many times and have seen others hit it onto greens further than that. There are plenty of am's with mid single digit handicaps that have clubhead speeds 110-120mph.

 

I agree though - carry distance is nothing like total distance, can be 10-50 yards more.

[Hot Rod 71]

What the average player thinks he carries the ball and what he actual does are normal two very different numbers in my experience. Unless you have been on a LM its really difficult to know for sure.

 

The average player uses the tee marker and fairway markers to gauge their carry and total distance, which provides a distance that is completely wrong most of the time.

 

Or you could pitch onto a green 270 yards away. I've done it many times and have seen others hit it onto greens further than that. There are plenty of am's with mid single digit handicaps that have clubhead speeds 110-120mph.

 

I agree though - carry distance is nothing like total distance, can be 10-50 yards more.

 

I agree with that if you can shoot the flag with a laser or use a GPS device and confirm its 270 yards. Many holes are shorter than the yardage states at the tee marker. I'm not saying a 4 handicap cannot have a 110 mph clubhead speed or cannot hit it 300 yards, I'm just saying some really don't know.

 

I've played with many amateurs that "think" they have a 110 mph clubhead speed and hit it 300 because they subtract the yardage for their approach shot from the yardage on tee marker. This is a false validation of true yardage in most cases. Some of these same players are often 10 yards behind my 280 yard drive (confirmed with mark function on GPS) and 105 mph clubhead speed.

 

Case in point - 18th hole at my course is 511 yard par 5. With a good drive I have 190-200 for my approach. Now, by using the method of subtracting approach yardage from tee marker yardage I just hit a 310-320 yard drive. However, using GPS or a laser the actual yardage of my drive is more like 275-285. This is because the hole is a slight dog-leg left and a straight drive cuts off a little yardage.

 

Another example is the 311 yard 4th hole at my course. Ever so slight dogleg left. True yardage to center is 290.

[PowderedToastMan]

I think putting money on a dead Ben Hogan to beat an LPGA Tour pro is safer money than the 4 handicap.

[BMC]

I really dislike the handicap system...but it's what we use, I guess.

 

Played with a 5 cap member today (I'm an employee of the club). He takes a 9 on a par 4 with two OBs. Laughs and says

ESC will only let me take a 6 (true). I see this a lot with 3-9 cappers.

 

He carded a 75 (par 70). (BS)

 

A USGA handicap is not a great indicator of how you really score.

[Obee]

I really dislike the handicap system...but it's what we use, I guess.

 

Played with a 5 cap member today (I'm an employee of the club). He takes a 9 on a par 4 with two OBs. Laughs and says

ESC will only let me take a 6 (true). I see this a lot with 3-9 cappers.

 

He carded a 75 (par 70). (BS)

 

A USGA handicap is not a great indicator of how you really score.

 

Correct. A better indicator is tournament scoring average ONLY.

[bluedot]

It is harder to 'score better' significantly by moving up a set of tee boxes. It is much more likely to score significantly worse if you move back. If you take a shorter hitter and have them move back a tee box, they are more likely to add more strokes to their score than the person moving up has the ability to gain. Why, it's really math. You can only gain X number of shots putting, especially if you are just an average putter. You have a greater potential to lose shots by moving back a tee box and making bigger numbers, like double and triple bogeys. You can only realistically gain 1 stroke on a hole you normally might par by moving up a tee box and birdie it. However, if you move back a tee box you can put up a double or triple and wipe out 3 holes you might 'gain'.

 

This is why I would take the LPGA player 80% of the time in a match-play situation. The holes they might double bogey won't matter and they'll make it up with their short game. However, in a stroke-play match, I stand by my earlier post.

 

So the 4 handicap male improves if you move him up a box and back a box? This thread has really made me realize how talented 4 handicaps are. They have the ability to carry it 270, they thrive in any course length you throw at them, and they are really just pro golfers who don't have the time to get better. They can do literally anything in this game, other than shave off that ~1 shot necessary to take them to 3.9 or better.

Where did I say that? I said any person has the potential to shoot a better score if they move up a tee box, there is just a greater chance to shoot a significantly worse score if they move back a tee box. You can only make x number of birdies, picking up a few shots. You can make more doubles and triples moving back which will negate any gain, in less holes. than if they had moved up a tee box.

 

You need to go back and reread what you are writing. You are saying that golfers lose lots of shots when they move in one direction that they do not gain back if they move in the other direction, which not only makes no mathematical sense, but contradicts a mountain of data that the USGA has assembled on course ratings. You're basing what happens when the golfer moves up on putting and birdies only, which isn't the ONLY way to improve by a shot.

 

If I play the white tees and am a 4, and go back to the blues and make a couple of bogeys or doubles that I don't "normally" make when I play the whites, then when I come back to the whites and do NOT make those bogeys or doubles, the effect of moving up is proportionally the same as the effect of moving back. Likewise, if I move up to the reds and make a couple of pars on holes that I often bogey from the whites, the effect is again proportionally the same. I don't have to make a lot more birdies from the forward tees; I just have to turn a couple of bogeys into pars. The difference between a par and a bogey is the same as the difference between a bogey and a double; one shot.

 

So from the forward tees, I hit a 7 iron onto a green and make par on a hole that, from farther back I usually have to try to get up and down for par and on which my stroke average is well above par. I don't have to make birdie; I just have to not make bogey or double.

[bluedot]

Ok, let's assume there is a guy who can carry his driver ON AVERAGE 270, which is PGA Tour AVERAGE, but is still a 4 index. (I play a TON of golf, and I don't see this mythical creatures, but for the sake of argument...) The question becomes WHY is he still a 4 index with that kind of ability? There are only a few possible reasons, and they are pretty simple.

 

1. He doesn't know where his driver is going. (Broadie's data suggests this is a myth; the same set of skills and abilities that enable one to deliver the clubhead to the ball well enough to AVERAGE 270 enable that person to also hit the ball straight. But we'll put THE FACTS aside for a moment, since we now live in post-factual America anyway, and assume an "alternative fact" of a guy who can deliver the club squarely to ball at 115 mph, but doesn't know where the ball is going.)

 

2. He can hit the driver, but mishits the ball off the ground enough to keep him at a 4; his approach game is poor. While this is much more likely than #1 above, it's still a stretch, because this Tour length driver will be hitting shorter clubs into greens, plus we get back to skills and abilities that enabled the 270 carry in the first place. But whatever...

 

3. His short game blows. Maybe he's got a yip problem, whatever.

 

Whatever it is that is going on, this guy is a 4 for a reason. The catch is that if you move him back, whatever his reason is for being a 4 gets WORSE, not better! He has to hit driver more. He has to hit longer clubs on his approaches. He misses more greens and has to rely on his short game more. It doesn't matter, really; make the 4 play more golf, and the difference between him and the scratch or plus player REGARDLESS OF GENDER becomes bigger, not smaller.

 

On one five foot putt, I have a chance to beat a scratch player quite often. Keep moving us back, and my chances get smaller and smaller; take us to 7000 yds, and it's over, and I don't care what the scratch and I average off the tee. He's better than me IN ALL PHASES OF THE GAME; make us play more golf and the differences become clearer and clearer.

 

That so many don't get this only tells me that you just don't play much competitive golf, whether that means tournaments, or for a few bucks at the club.

[deadsolid...shank]

I'm curious about the 270 PGA tour carry average that gets cited quite often. I know they measure two holes during the tournaments.

 

But..... that number seems too low to me, purely based on what we see on tv. Whenever they have the tracking that shows the carry distance it's always more than that.

 

In the real world, not the one where we use stats to fit our argument, do you believe that number truly represents what the average carry is on tour?

[glk]

I'm curious about the 270 PGA tour carry average that gets cited quite often. I know they measure two holes during the tournaments.

 

But..... that number seems too low to me, purely based on what we see on tv. Whenever they have the tracking that shows the carry distance it's always more than that.

 

In the real world, not the one where we use stats to fit our argument, do you believe that number truly represents what the average carry is on tour?

 

Median carry is in the 275 yd area. Lows are guys like Toms, Furyk, Knost ... in the low 250s and then ... those five or so who carry low 300s.

Just go to the tour stats off the tee for carry distance.

[deadsolid...shank]

I'm curious about the 270 PGA tour carry average that gets cited quite often. I know they measure two holes during the tournaments.

 

But..... that number seems too low to me, purely based on what we see on tv. Whenever they have the tracking that shows the carry distance it's always more than that.

 

In the real world, not the one where we use stats to fit our argument, do you believe that number truly represents what the average carry is on tour?

 

Median carry is in the 275 yd area. Lows are guys like Toms, Furyk, Knost ... in the low 250s and then ... those five or so who carry low 300s.

Just go to the tour stats off the tee for carry distance.

 

Thanks. Just was thinking about that when the number popped up again. Funny how just five yards makes it seem more reasonable.