Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[jmvargas]

in the early 80s i was in my late 30s and playing a lot of great golf never going above 76 on relatively long hard courses and boasted that if Jack Nicklaus gave me 10 strokes i would give him a good fight on the courses i play..

 

i then played a good local veteran pro who shot an easy 64(32-32) on one of those courses while i shot a good--for me as i has a OB--75..

 

i have kept my mouth shut since then about those kind of things..

 

i also played in the pro-am of our national open in 1990 with journeyman pro Bill Israelson as our pro and he shot an easy 66 on a really world class course and we won with a net 55(-17) where i contributed 10 strokes with my 7 hdcp and made 2 gross eagles on par 5s and feeling a bit cocky after i asked Bill if i had any chance at the US Senior Tour as i was only 45 at that time..

 

he just looked me straight in the eye and said.."NO"..

 

What was you lowest handicap back in the day?

 

...3

[Obee]

in the early 80s i was in my late 30s and playing a lot of great golf never going above 76 on relatively long hard courses and boasted that if Jack Nicklaus gave me 10 strokes i would give him a good fight on the courses i play..

 

i then played a good local veteran pro who shot an easy 64(32-32) on one of those courses while i shot a good--for me as i has a OB--75..

 

i have kept my mouth shut since then about those kind of things..

 

i also played in the pro-am of our national open in 1990 with journeyman pro Bill Israelson as our pro and he shot an easy 66 on a really world class course and we won with a net 55(-17) where i contributed 10 strokes with my 7 hdcp and made 2 gross eagles on par 5s and feeling a bit cocky after i asked Bill if i had any chance at the US Senior Tour as i was only 45 at that time..

 

he just looked me straight in the eye and said.."NO"..

 

What was you lowest handicap back in the day?

 

...3

 

So what do you think Nicklaus would have shot that day 57? LOL

 

You were a 3ish cap. A pro beat you by 11 on a good day. Sounds about right.

 

All pros have a bottom range. Back then, almost no one ever shot 59.

 

Have no idea what the course was, but unless it was a silly little par 68 course or something, then Nicklaus is going to shoot 60-68. He's just do it over and over and over.

 

And over.

 

You pro buddy could have probably gone just as low. It's just that he would have shot far more rounds between 70-74 on easyish tracks than a truly elite/greatest ever player like Nicklaus or any other great.

[jmvargas]

in the early 80s i was in my late 30s and playing a lot of great golf never going above 76 on relatively long hard courses and boasted that if Jack Nicklaus gave me 10 strokes i would give him a good fight on the courses i play..

 

i then played a good local veteran pro who shot an easy 64(32-32) on one of those courses while i shot a good--for me as i has a OB--75..

 

i have kept my mouth shut since then about those kind of things..

 

i also played in the pro-am of our national open in 1990 with journeyman pro Bill Israelson as our pro and he shot an easy 66 on a really world class course and we won with a net 55(-17) where i contributed 10 strokes with my 7 hdcp and made 2 gross eagles on par 5s and feeling a bit cocky after i asked Bill if i had any chance at the US Senior Tour as i was only 45 at that time..

 

he just looked me straight in the eye and said.."NO"..

 

What was you lowest handicap back in the day?

 

...3

 

So what do you think Nicklaus would have shot that day 57? LOL

 

You were a 3ish cap. A pro beat you by 11 on a good day. Sounds about right.

 

All pros have a bottom range. Back then, almost no one ever shot 59.

 

Have no idea what the course was, but unless it was a silly little par 68 course or something, then Nicklaus is going to shoot 60-68. He's just do it over and over and over.

 

And over.

 

You pro buddy could have probably gone just as low. It's just that he would have shot far more rounds between 70-74 on easyish tracks than a truly elite/greatest ever player like Nicklaus or any other great.

 

sounds about right..

 

i guess i was having delusions considering i was only a weekend golfer but still able to hold that 3..

 

my point is the good amateur has no idea how good a real touring pro really is and much more a truly great one..

 

and the courses involved were par 72s 7000yds+ and have been venues of our national Opens as part of the Asian Golf Circuit..

 

and my 3 hdcp was on one of them..

 

PS: i just remembered that that 1991 national open of ours was won by Dennis Paulson who is now trying to be reinstated as an amateur....go figure.

[jslane57]

Golf is a funny game, the difference between a 24 and a 20 is nearly nothing, but as HCP gets lower and lower it seems to get exponentially better. Both in talent and in golf smarts. Many people golf with very good golfers who are around a 4 HCP, and think a scratch is not far off. But a 4 and a scratch can be a mile apart, as can a scratch and a +4. If this thread was titled, would a 4 HCP break 85 on the Sunday tournament tees at ANGC, it would have ended many pages ago...

[CallawayLefty]

And one question for low heel - you seem like a player that has been around the block...if you think the scratch has no chance at 85, then what do you think they'd shoot? I'm talking your normal club scratch. Shoots par sometimes, better sometimes, lots of mid 70s. A legit guy. Not a scratch who shoots 83 in every tournament.

 

I dont know if you read through some of the thread when i addressed this but i believe based on the OPs conditions and stipulations I feel a miniscule amount of scratches could break 85 under those rules. Just my opinion. Not all scratches are the same just as not all pros are the same the difference though is that pros are battle tested and better know how to score than your average club scratch and their game travels well.

The scenario unfolds 1 of 2 ways a real scratch usually shoots at worst 4-5 above under normal conditions if we base it on the 78.1 rating that is widely used here for augusta in sunday tournament conditions i believe that # nearly triples but likely doubles. I believe obee thinks the real # to discuss is 81 or 82 being a certainty but im not sure if he means that under the OPs conditions.

I believe that there are a handful of scratches in north america that can handle the stage and the speed/slope of these greens to break that #. i would guess from places ive played id bet on club scratches from Oakmont, Oakland Hills, Winged Foot and a few others would be properly equipped to take that challenge on site unseen as the OP suggests. i dont think its impossible but a stretch because of the stipulations

Its hard to give a # without seeing this persons scoring and what courses they play. The 2 Scratch options you presented are not mutually exclusive.I teach a few scratches as i previously stated and as you know tournaments add 4-5 shots per round so 80 isnt out of the question if youre out of your comfort zone.

I believe an am tourney tested scratch has a leg up in this scenario versus just a club scratch who plays the club championship and maybe some interclub comps during the summer.

Great discussion for sure though and would make a great Golf channel reality show!

 

Ok so what's your number then? You said "4 to 5 over doubles or triples." Are you then meaning 93 (15 over 78.1)? Surely there's a number where we all agree that a normal scratch player will just pull it together enough to shoot it. Like for example, I'm sure we'd both agree that a normal scratch would almost always break 125 out there. So what's your number? Mine is honestly right about 85. I think a normal scratch would break 85 most of the time. I think obee and I are pretty close to on the same page. I just want to hear how far apart we are from you. Is it 93? 100?

 

EDIT: And for the record, I have often participated in the "you have no idea how good pros are" argument. There is a web.com event hosted at my home course every year, and those guys absolutely torch our course - and of course, they aren't the guys who even get to play in the Masters. So I am 100% familiar with how good they really are after years and years of watching that. But I don't believe a tournament with a tournament average of 73.88* is going to leave your average scratch golfer "no chance" of breaking 85. If those guys play to traveling +7 or +8 so, and our hypothetical scratch plays to a traveling 2, then we're probably looking in the 83-84 range, on average.

 

*See here: https://www.cbssports.com/golf/tournaments/masters/coursestats I just pulled that randomly and assume it's more or less true to average form.

[produff26]

My buddy who is scratch played Augusta 3 times. Broke 80 on the last round. Said Pine Valley is tougher.

[deadsolid...shank]

I can only base my opinion on personal experience, but I think it boils down to being able to read the greens.

 

Someone like me (not scratch but close enough to have some sort of idea) who plays on small, flat greens, and doesn't read greens well I think would struggle mightily on Augusta's greens. Spend so much time trying to figure out lines that speed would be often overlooked. I'm afraid the three (and maybe four) putts would add up. That's where notmhaving a caddie is such a big factor.

 

Someone who does play on those type greens however, and who isn't intimidated by them, I think has a very solid chance.

[TheCityGame]

lowheel -- FTR, that wasn't a dig. Lots of people think that a "scratch" who plays at 6500 would be a +5 at 7100. Those are normally people who don't understand how the handicap system works and think that scratch refers to par.

 

Ratings from 6500 are typically going to be 72-ish.

 

From 7100, 75-ish.

 

That means that you believe that someone who can shoot 72 from 6500 yards is typically going to shoot about 82 from 7100 yards, making him a 5.

 

Obviously you have a lot of experience in golf, but all I do is play between 6500 and 7100 yards with lots of low handicap golfers, and what you're saying isn't even close to reality.

[cdnglf]

Course rating is supposedly 78, therefore a true scratch will almost always break 85 and has a decent chance of breaking 80. Not sure how to calculate the odds of getting a double, but it seems more likely than not he'd get one. Do all the naysayers think Augusta is somehow immune to the course rating system?

[TheCityGame]

i'm guessing all broke 90 and with a low below 85..

That's a pretty good guess.

 

Take from this what you guys will about a scratch playing Augusta, but it's the only thing in my experience that could possibly compare. Bethpage's greens are definitely easier than Augusta's (not that I've played Augusta). But, I don't know of many places at Augusta where I miss a fairway by 8 yards, and I need to hit a wedge through hay just to get back in play, and there's a lot more greens at Augusta where you can run the ball up if you're still 215 out after a good drive on a par 4.

 

We were 84, 87, 89. Long hitting 2 was low man, then me, then the 5. For the record, those went into handicap differentials as like 3, 6, 8. Putting up a 6 differential feels pretty bad for me these days.

 

I shot 87 with no warm up after starting with five consecutive doubles -- you're free to believe when I say I was shaking off some cobwebs, or not. But, I finished the front par, bogey, par, bogey, then shot 39 on the back with two birdies. Yardage on the card for the back is 3790 and I am NOT a bomber. I had 4W into three of the par 3's. Furthermore, like someone said above, if the player is "trying to break 85", that might be a bit different. And breaking 85 wasn't my goal. . .for one, we were playing a match so there were some "match play shots". For two, there were some ill-advised "I didn't come here to lay up" shots.

 

Give a scratch golfer even a 1 hour warm up before that and he breaks 85 all the time. Me and the other guy break 85 over 50% of the time in good conditions from those tees. I don't know if a 250-yard driving scratch with great accuracy has a better chance there than a 300-yard driving scratch with OK accuracy. That's not a place you want to miss the fairway. It's also not a place you want to come into a green from 210 very often.

 

Doesn't change my opinion of a scratch breaking 85 at Augusta because I thought he could before, and I still think he can.

 

The other guy and I have both put up some very good scores from the "Saturday Blues" at Bethpage in the past. It was considerably harder from 400 or so more yards, but I also didn't think either of us played as well as we have before.

 

Just to clarify are you referring to the OPs conditions being met? You believe any scratch breaks 85 50% of the time in that scenario at augusta? just looking for clarity thanks

I'm saying a few things. . .

 

1) I think a 2 index (me) and my friend could break 85 about 50% of the time at Augusta in that scenario. Scratch golfers. . .90% of the time.

 

2) Keep in mind, in my scenario, we played as 3, 3, and 6 for net 81, 84, 83. I don't know what you want to "take off" for giving the scratch a better warm up, or a good night's sleep. I pretty firmly believe "you are what you shoot", but starting with 5 doubles is a one-in-a-million for me these days, especially considering 1, 2, and 4 are not double holes.

 

3) In my scenario, no, it wasn't "tournament" conditions. Last year we played it the week after the Barclays, but we played from the Saturday blues. Buddy shot 79. I shot 81 with no doubles. So, much shorter, but maybe tougher conditions.

 

4) I don't know what Augusta greens would do to me, or similar golfers. I know a few things though. . .I'm not losing a ball on hole 2 at Augusta if I miss a drive 8 yards left. I'm not hitting driver-4W into a par 4 and being stuck in rough up to my ankles, 20 yards short of the green.

 

5) Lastly, the overarching point that I am trying to make is that I think people OVERESTIMATE the stroke differential between pro golfers and scratch golfers. I think that it tends to be closer to 5.5-7.5 (and the scant stats we have on this bear me out). HOWEVER. . .I think that people UNDERESTIMATE how difficult that gap would be to breach, and underestimate just how much skill those 5-7 shots represents. But just because a scratch couldn't become a pro in a million years doesn't mean that the pro is a million strokes better than the scratch.

 

Don't get me wrong. . .pros are WAY better than scratch golfers. I just think that people don't realize that 5-7 strokes IS way better. They think a pro has to be 10-12 shots better than a scratch on average to be a pro. Very little evidence for that.

[coachemup]

I am going to make my last post in this thread, but this is truly something I believe in and it has little to do with this particular thread other than comparing the have's and the have nots.

I have played alot of golf with guys who are scratch or better. I have played in Qualifiers with guys who are regulars on different tours. To me, the biggest seperation of players is MENTAL and not physical. I have seen 4 handicaps who have perfect golf swings, who can bomb it, who can hit irons, who can wedge it and who can roll the rock, but the reason they are 4 handicaps and not +4 handicaps is the 6 inches between their ears. Same reason some guys on Mini Tour's never make it to the big time. They just can't handle it mentally (travel, time away from family, tournament pressure, etc...). This doesn't just happen in golf, but in all sports.

 

I bring this up in this thread because there are guys out there who could shoot 85 at Augusta (or anywhere), not only because they have game, but because they can mentally handle the pressures and do not get caught up in the negative when making a bad swing or 3 putting.

 

I know there have been many posts about the difference between tour players and scratch players and so forth, but from 48 years of experience and in my humble opinion the biggest difference is simply what sits above the shoulders.

 

Now back to cleaning up debris and helping others who lost everything in Hurricane Harvey

[jmvargas]

excellent and very interesting points have been made on this thread and based on them and to answer the OP's question ....yes ! i believe a TRUE scratch golfer can break 85 at Augusta.

 

...notwithstanding the "have you ever been to Augusta" naysayers..

[RobotDoctor]

i'm guessing all broke 90 and with a low below 85..

That's a pretty good guess.

 

Take from this what you guys will about a scratch playing Augusta, but it's the only thing in my experience that could possibly compare. Bethpage's greens are definitely easier than Augusta's (not that I've played Augusta). But, I don't know of many places at Augusta where I miss a fairway by 8 yards, and I need to hit a wedge through hay just to get back in play, and there's a lot more greens at Augusta where you can run the ball up if you're still 215 out after a good drive on a par 4.

 

We were 84, 87, 89. Long hitting 2 was low man, then me, then the 5. For the record, those went into handicap differentials as like 3, 6, 8. Putting up a 6 differential feels pretty bad for me these days.

 

I shot 87 with no warm up after starting with five consecutive doubles -- you're free to believe when I say I was shaking off some cobwebs, or not. But, I finished the front par, bogey, par, bogey, then shot 39 on the back with two birdies. Yardage on the card for the back is 3790 and I am NOT a bomber. I had 4W into three of the par 3's. Furthermore, like someone said above, if the player is "trying to break 85", that might be a bit different. And breaking 85 wasn't my goal. . .for one, we were playing a match so there were some "match play shots". For two, there were some ill-advised "I didn't come here to lay up" shots.

 

Give a scratch golfer even a 1 hour warm up before that and he breaks 85 all the time. Me and the other guy break 85 over 50% of the time in good conditions from those tees. I don't know if a 250-yard driving scratch with great accuracy has a better chance there than a 300-yard driving scratch with OK accuracy. That's not a place you want to miss the fairway. It's also not a place you want to come into a green from 210 very often.

 

Doesn't change my opinion of a scratch breaking 85 at Augusta because I thought he could before, and I still think he can.

 

The other guy and I have both put up some very good scores from the "Saturday Blues" at Bethpage in the past. It was considerably harder from 400 or so more yards, but I also didn't think either of us played as well as we have before.

 

Just to clarify are you referring to the OPs conditions being met? You believe any scratch breaks 85 50% of the time in that scenario at augusta? just looking for clarity thanks

I'm saying a few things. . .

 

1) I think a 2 index (me) and my friend could break 85 about 50% of the time at Augusta in that scenario. Scratch golfers. . .90% of the time.

 

2) Keep in mind, in my scenario, we played as 3, 3, and 6 for net 81, 84, 83. I don't know what you want to "take off" for giving the scratch a better warm up, or a good night's sleep. I pretty firmly believe "you are what you shoot", but starting with 5 doubles is a one-in-a-million for me these days, especially considering 1, 2, and 4 are not double holes.

 

3) In my scenario, no, it wasn't "tournament" conditions. Last year we played it the week after the Barclays, but we played from the Saturday blues. Buddy shot 79. I shot 81 with no doubles. So, much shorter, but maybe tougher conditions.

 

4) I don't know what Augusta greens would do to me, or similar golfers. I know a few things though. . .I'm not losing a ball on hole 2 at Augusta if I miss a drive 8 yards left. I'm not hitting driver-4W into a par 4 and being stuck in rough up to my ankles, 20 yards short of the green.

 

5) Lastly, the overarching point that I am trying to make is that I think people OVERESTIMATE the stroke differential between pro golfers and scratch golfers. I think that it tends to be closer to 5.5-7.5 (and the scant stats we have on this bear me out). HOWEVER. . .I think that people UNDERESTIMATE how difficult that gap would be to breach, and underestimate just how much skill those 5-7 shots represents. But just because a scratch couldn't become a pro in a million years doesn't mean that the pro is a million strokes better than the scratch.

 

Don't get me wrong. . .pros are WAY better than scratch golfers. I just think that people don't realize that 5-7 strokes IS way better. They think a pro has to be 10-12 shots better than a scratch on average to be a pro. Very little evidence for that.

 

Have you ever been on Augusta National, even to watch a Masters practice/tournament round?

[lowheel]

I am going to make my last post in this thread, but this is truly something I believe in and it has little to do with this particular thread other than comparing the have's and the have nots.

I have played alot of golf with guys who are scratch or better. I have played in Qualifiers with guys who are regulars on different tours. To me, the biggest seperation of players is MENTAL and not physical. I have seen 4 handicaps who have perfect golf swings, who can bomb it, who can hit irons, who can wedge it and who can roll the rock, but the reason they are 4 handicaps and not +4 handicaps is the 6 inches between their ears. Same reason some guys on Mini Tour's never make it to the big time. They just can't handle it mentally (travel, time away from family, tournament pressure, etc...). This doesn't just happen in golf, but in all sports.

 

I bring this up in this thread because there are guys out there who could shoot 85 at Augusta (or anywhere), not only because they have game, but because they can mentally handle the pressures and do not get caught up in the negative when making a bad swing or 3 putting.

 

I know there have been many posts about the difference between tour players and scratch players and so forth, but from 48 years of experience and in my humble opinion the biggest difference is simply what sits above the shoulders.

 

Now back to cleaning up debris and helping others who lost everything in Hurricane Harvey

 

Stay safe man!

[lowheel]

i'm guessing all broke 90 and with a low below 85..

That's a pretty good guess.

 

Take from this what you guys will about a scratch playing Augusta, but it's the only thing in my experience that could possibly compare. Bethpage's greens are definitely easier than Augusta's (not that I've played Augusta). But, I don't know of many places at Augusta where I miss a fairway by 8 yards, and I need to hit a wedge through hay just to get back in play, and there's a lot more greens at Augusta where you can run the ball up if you're still 215 out after a good drive on a par 4.

 

We were 84, 87, 89. Long hitting 2 was low man, then me, then the 5. For the record, those went into handicap differentials as like 3, 6, 8. Putting up a 6 differential feels pretty bad for me these days.

 

I shot 87 with no warm up after starting with five consecutive doubles -- you're free to believe when I say I was shaking off some cobwebs, or not. But, I finished the front par, bogey, par, bogey, then shot 39 on the back with two birdies. Yardage on the card for the back is 3790 and I am NOT a bomber. I had 4W into three of the par 3's. Furthermore, like someone said above, if the player is "trying to break 85", that might be a bit different. And breaking 85 wasn't my goal. . .for one, we were playing a match so there were some "match play shots". For two, there were some ill-advised "I didn't come here to lay up" shots.

 

Give a scratch golfer even a 1 hour warm up before that and he breaks 85 all the time. Me and the other guy break 85 over 50% of the time in good conditions from those tees. I don't know if a 250-yard driving scratch with great accuracy has a better chance there than a 300-yard driving scratch with OK accuracy. That's not a place you want to miss the fairway. It's also not a place you want to come into a green from 210 very often.

 

Doesn't change my opinion of a scratch breaking 85 at Augusta because I thought he could before, and I still think he can.

 

The other guy and I have both put up some very good scores from the "Saturday Blues" at Bethpage in the past. It was considerably harder from 400 or so more yards, but I also didn't think either of us played as well as we have before.

 

Just to clarify are you referring to the OPs conditions being met? You believe any scratch breaks 85 50% of the time in that scenario at augusta? just looking for clarity thanks

I'm saying a few things. . .

 

1) I think a 2 index (me) and my friend could break 85 about 50% of the time at Augusta in that scenario. Scratch golfers. . .90% of the time.

 

2) Keep in mind, in my scenario, we played as 3, 3, and 6 for net 81, 84, 83. I don't know what you want to "take off" for giving the scratch a better warm up, or a good night's sleep. I pretty firmly believe "you are what you shoot", but starting with 5 doubles is a one-in-a-million for me these days, especially considering 1, 2, and 4 are not double holes.

 

3) In my scenario, no, it wasn't "tournament" conditions. Last year we played it the week after the Barclays, but we played from the Saturday blues. Buddy shot 79. I shot 81 with no doubles. So, much shorter, but maybe tougher conditions.

 

4) I don't know what Augusta greens would do to me, or similar golfers. I know a few things though. . .I'm not losing a ball on hole 2 at Augusta if I miss a drive 8 yards left. I'm not hitting driver-4W into a par 4 and being stuck in rough up to my ankles, 20 yards short of the green.

 

5) Lastly, the overarching point that I am trying to make is that I think people OVERESTIMATE the stroke differential between pro golfers and scratch golfers. I think that it tends to be closer to 5.5-7.5 (and the scant stats we have on this bear me out). HOWEVER. . .I think that people UNDERESTIMATE how difficult that gap would be to breach, and underestimate just how much skill those 5-7 shots represents. But just because a scratch couldn't become a pro in a million years doesn't mean that the pro is a million strokes better than the scratch.

 

Don't get me wrong. . .pros are WAY better than scratch golfers. I just think that people don't realize that 5-7 strokes IS way better. They think a pro has to be 10-12 shots better than a scratch on average to be a pro. Very little evidence for that.

 

thanks for taking the time to answer but WOW!!!!. I just want to make sure im understanding this properly you as a 2 show up at augusta and under the conditions and stipulations the op laid out(sunday conditions, no caddy etc..)you break 85 50% of the time and any scratch breaks 85 in this scenario 90% of the time? I dont want to laugh but wow.its cool though if thats what you believe. fine line between confidence,arrogance & delusion i guess.

 

Each of your points doesnt make your case FYI. especially your scoring scenario at the barclays.You dont play tourney conditions or tees and shoot in the 80s yet you tame augusta in masters sunday conditions??? i dont know this sounds a little like big bar talk after having a few too many ;)

 

Either way thanks for the convo and opinion take care

[lowheel]

And one question for low heel - you seem like a player that has been around the block...if you think the scratch has no chance at 85, then what do you think they'd shoot? I'm talking your normal club scratch. Shoots par sometimes, better sometimes, lots of mid 70s. A legit guy. Not a scratch who shoots 83 in every tournament.

 

I dont know if you read through some of the thread when i addressed this but i believe based on the OPs conditions and stipulations I feel a miniscule amount of scratches could break 85 under those rules. Just my opinion. Not all scratches are the same just as not all pros are the same the difference though is that pros are battle tested and better know how to score than your average club scratch and their game travels well.

The scenario unfolds 1 of 2 ways a real scratch usually shoots at worst 4-5 above under normal conditions if we base it on the 78.1 rating that is widely used here for augusta in sunday tournament conditions i believe that # nearly triples but likely doubles. I believe obee thinks the real # to discuss is 81 or 82 being a certainty but im not sure if he means that under the OPs conditions.

I believe that there are a handful of scratches in north america that can handle the stage and the speed/slope of these greens to break that #. i would guess from places ive played id bet on club scratches from Oakmont, Oakland Hills, Winged Foot and a few others would be properly equipped to take that challenge on site unseen as the OP suggests. i dont think its impossible but a stretch because of the stipulations

Its hard to give a # without seeing this persons scoring and what courses they play. The 2 Scratch options you presented are not mutually exclusive.I teach a few scratches as i previously stated and as you know tournaments add 4-5 shots per round so 80 isnt out of the question if youre out of your comfort zone.

I believe an am tourney tested scratch has a leg up in this scenario versus just a club scratch who plays the club championship and maybe some interclub comps during the summer.

Great discussion for sure though and would make a great Golf channel reality show!

 

Ok so what's your number then? You said "4 to 5 over doubles or triples." Are you then meaning 93 (15 over 78.1)? Surely there's a number where we all agree that a normal scratch player will just pull it together enough to shoot it. Like for example, I'm sure we'd both agree that a normal scratch would almost always break 125 out there. So what's your number? Mine is honestly right about 85. I think a normal scratch would break 85 most of the time. I think obee and I are pretty close to on the same page. I just want to hear how far apart we are from you. Is it 93? 100?

 

EDIT: And for the record, I have often participated in the "you have no idea how good pros are" argument. There is a web.com event hosted at my home course every year, and those guys absolutely torch our course - and of course, they aren't the guys who even get to play in the Masters. So I am 100% familiar with how good they really are after years and years of watching that. But I don't believe a tournament with a tournament average of 73.88* is going to leave your average scratch golfer "no chance" of breaking 85. If those guys play to traveling +7 or +8 so, and our hypothetical scratch plays to a traveling 2, then we're probably looking in the 83-84 range, on average.

 

*See here: https://www.cbssport...ers/coursestats I just pulled that randomly and assume it's more or less true to average form.

 

As for a # im sorry i thought i mentioned that previously. For me it would be 88-92 in the scenario presented. yes im serious. Alot of guys in this thread got defensive because all scratches are not the same yet people cling to index/ course ratings, math!! without looking at the realities of where people play. I co setup the club championship at my home course 75.3 143 and plays 7402 from the tips. greens are 11.5- 12. we have great players, 25 scratch or better. last 5 years club champ over 4 days never better than +10. haf these guys are playing it from 6400 90% of the time and never shoot worse than 75 yet when strectched barely break 80 if that. How come? the rating say his index at worst shoots x score but it never if ever happens. How come?

[lowheel]

Course rating is supposedly 78, therefore a true scratch will almost always break 85 and has a decent chance of breaking 80. Not sure how to calculate the odds of getting a double, but it seems more likely than not he'd get one. Do all the naysayers think Augusta is somehow immune to the course rating system?

 

This is the issue that blows me away, its not simple math. Youre not going from some private or semi private or muni to an equivalent private or semi privat or muni. Your walking into augusta with Sunday conditions and length. Throw that rating out the window when were talking about this scenario.A miniscule amount of scratches can be considered for this task. i truly believe that because ive been there and watched PGA tour stars make doubles, triple and quds just like that yet a scratch wont make doubles because the rating. Were talking about the scenario presented by the op and those conditions.If Rickie Fowler shoots 76 this past masters sunday a arguable top 15-20 player in the world how is a club scratch who plays 6600 yard course not shooting over 85 in those same conditions?

[lowheel]

lowheel -- FTR, that wasn't a dig. Lots of people think that a "scratch" who plays at 6500 would be a +5 at 7100. Those are normally people who don't understand how the handicap system works and think that scratch refers to par.

 

Ratings from 6500 are typically going to be 72-ish.

 

From 7100, 75-ish.

 

That means that you believe that someone who can shoot 72 from 6500 yards is typically going to shoot about 82 from 7100 yards, making him a 5.

 

Obviously you have a lot of experience in golf, but all I do is play between 6500 and 7100 yards with lots of low handicap golfers, and what you're saying isn't even close to reality.

 

The scenario you have proposed happens all the time. The exceptions are scratches that carry the ball a way at least 265+ other wise they always, ALWAYS STRUGGLE in that scenario.Statistically going from hitting 5 irons to hitting hybrids woods into greens adds strokes and yes over 10 rounds it would clearly show what im stating.

 

Youre a 2 ish and couldnt break 80 at bethpage from non tourney tees why? when you answer that you will see your post is actually completely backwards and actually validates my claim.I teach a scratch at my course and when he plays 9 or 18 with me he always comes back with me and struggles to break 80 how come? im not intimidating him, he doesnt suddenly forget how to play.hes a true scratch but its too much course for him because he hits it 240-245. See, not simple math. just something for you to consider in this debate.When i play with him from his tees he suddenly plays to his scratch, coincidence?

[lchang]

i'm guessing all broke 90 and with a low below 85..

That's a pretty good guess.

 

Take from this what you guys will about a scratch playing Augusta, but it's the only thing in my experience that could possibly compare. Bethpage's greens are definitely easier than Augusta's (not that I've played Augusta). But, I don't know of many places at Augusta where I miss a fairway by 8 yards, and I need to hit a wedge through hay just to get back in play, and there's a lot more greens at Augusta where you can run the ball up if you're still 215 out after a good drive on a par 4.

 

We were 84, 87, 89. Long hitting 2 was low man, then me, then the 5. For the record, those went into handicap differentials as like 3, 6, 8. Putting up a 6 differential feels pretty bad for me these days.

 

I shot 87 with no warm up after starting with five consecutive doubles -- you're free to believe when I say I was shaking off some cobwebs, or not. But, I finished the front par, bogey, par, bogey, then shot 39 on the back with two birdies. Yardage on the card for the back is 3790 and I am NOT a bomber. I had 4W into three of the par 3's. Furthermore, like someone said above, if the player is "trying to break 85", that might be a bit different. And breaking 85 wasn't my goal. . .for one, we were playing a match so there were some "match play shots". For two, there were some ill-advised "I didn't come here to lay up" shots.

 

Give a scratch golfer even a 1 hour warm up before that and he breaks 85 all the time. Me and the other guy break 85 over 50% of the time in good conditions from those tees. I don't know if a 250-yard driving scratch with great accuracy has a better chance there than a 300-yard driving scratch with OK accuracy. That's not a place you want to miss the fairway. It's also not a place you want to come into a green from 210 very often.

 

Doesn't change my opinion of a scratch breaking 85 at Augusta because I thought he could before, and I still think he can.

 

The other guy and I have both put up some very good scores from the "Saturday Blues" at Bethpage in the past. It was considerably harder from 400 or so more yards, but I also didn't think either of us played as well as we have before.

 

Just to clarify are you referring to the OPs conditions being met? You believe any scratch breaks 85 50% of the time in that scenario at augusta? just looking for clarity thanks

I'm saying a few things. . .

 

1) I think a 2 index (me) and my friend could break 85 about 50% of the time at Augusta in that scenario. Scratch golfers. . .90% of the time.

 

2) Keep in mind, in my scenario, we played as 3, 3, and 6 for net 81, 84, 83. I don't know what you want to "take off" for giving the scratch a better warm up, or a good night's sleep. I pretty firmly believe "you are what you shoot", but starting with 5 doubles is a one-in-a-million for me these days, especially considering 1, 2, and 4 are not double holes.

 

3) In my scenario, no, it wasn't "tournament" conditions. Last year we played it the week after the Barclays, but we played from the Saturday blues. Buddy shot 79. I shot 81 with no doubles. So, much shorter, but maybe tougher conditions.

 

4) I don't know what Augusta greens would do to me, or similar golfers. I know a few things though. . .I'm not losing a ball on hole 2 at Augusta if I miss a drive 8 yards left. I'm not hitting driver-4W into a par 4 and being stuck in rough up to my ankles, 20 yards short of the green.

 

5) Lastly, the overarching point that I am trying to make is that I think people OVERESTIMATE the stroke differential between pro golfers and scratch golfers. I think that it tends to be closer to 5.5-7.5 (and the scant stats we have on this bear me out). HOWEVER. . .I think that people UNDERESTIMATE how difficult that gap would be to breach, and underestimate just how much skill those 5-7 shots represents. But just because a scratch couldn't become a pro in a million years doesn't mean that the pro is a million strokes better than the scratch.

 

Don't get me wrong. . .pros are WAY better than scratch golfers. I just think that people don't realize that 5-7 strokes IS way better. They think a pro has to be 10-12 shots better than a scratch on average to be a pro. Very little evidence for that.

 

This sounds sensible EXCEPT: we see experienced pressure-tested professionals (+6-ish's) beating other pressure-tested professionals (also +6-ish's) by 10 shots every Thursday thru Sunday.

 

So a top-form, experienced, pressure-tested pro with top-notch caddy-aided golf decisions shoots 72-73 on average with extensive course knowledge on Masters Sunday. He beats other such pros that day by 5 shots and loses to the best that day by 5 shots. And we have a scratch with no course knowledge (at least no useful knowledge about the details of the greens) and no caddy in the same conditions. You think that scratch shoots only 5-7 shots worse than 72-73?!

 

And who would be more affected by "nerves": the experienced pro in front of a gallery on Masters Sunday? Or the scratch with no gallery playing Augusta for the first time ever playing for bragging rights (forever!) with his buddy.

 

Also: we have to assume the pro's anti-handicap (the average of his worst 10 of his recent 20 rounds) is A LOT better than the scratch's anti-handicap, right? So on a not-so-good day, the pro shoots 76 and the scratch shoots .... over 85 for sure, right? And the chances of each having a not-so-good day? See my "nerves" argument above. I think it's more likely the scratch playing Augusta for the first time ever playing for perpetual bragging rights all by himself.

[cdnglf]

Course rating is supposedly 78, therefore a true scratch will almost always break 85 and has a decent chance of breaking 80. Not sure how to calculate the odds of getting a double, but it seems more likely than not he'd get one. Do all the naysayers think Augusta is somehow immune to the course rating system?

 

This is the issue that blows me away, its not simple math. Youre not going from some private or semi private or muni to an equivalent private or semi privat or muni. Your walking into augusta with Sunday conditions and length. Throw that rating out the window when were talking about this scenario.A miniscule amount of scratches can be considered for this task. i truly believe that because ive been there and watched PGA tour stars make doubles, triple and quds just like that yet a scratch wont make doubles because the rating. Were talking about the scenario presented by the op and those conditions.If Rickie Fowler shoots 76 this past masters sunday a arguable top 15-20 player in the world how is a club scratch who plays 6600 yard course not shooting over 85 in those same conditions?

 

Fowler had a bad day and shot a 76. Kuchar had a good one and shot a 67. Half way between the two is 71.5, about 6.5 shots below the estimated rating of 78 and roughly in line with what you'd expect a +7 to shoot (most estimates for top pros I've seen are in the +6 to +7 range).

 

Pros are great, but they're not consistently 14+ shots better than scratch.

[playa]

I have not read this whole thread (and not planning on it), but barring horrible weather I see no issues with a "true" scratch golfer shooting 85 or better at Augusta (or any course for that matter). I don't play to scratch any

longer due to not practicing much or playing much anymore, but no matter what course I step, no matter what tee's I play from and no matter what the conditions are, I plan on shooting 75 or better. Just because its Augusta, Bethpage, Oakmont, etc... I don't see any reason for a change in thinking. Hit the fairway, hit the green, 2 putt and move onto the next one.

 

I think too many people over analyze everything such as what the pro's shoot, what their handicap is and how good they are. I know they are alot better than I am (played with many), but they want to shoot 65 and I want to shoot 75. No reason for either of us not break 85.

 

Just my 2 cents

 

I like your confidence but your post shows me ( no offense) youve never played a course of that caliber in tournament condition and pressure. Until you do it you wont know. Golf is humbling like that and alot of guys find out the hard way. I play US open Qualifiers with scratches every year and they rarely break 80. Always hear the same thing. "this is my worst round this year!" "i havent shot over 74 in like 3 years" " the slow pace is really affecting me" " if i made the putts i usually make it would be a different round ( guy who shot 81)"

 

99% of scracthes would melt on those green speeds. roughly 70% of scratches play courses from 6700 and below.

I am a self confessed hacker so have no experience on championship courses under tournament conditions, but I am just good enough to sneak into Open ams (vardons) at some of the smaller clubs around Sydney, and even from that I appreciate how much harder a tricked up course can play. Even my home course that I know back to front is incredibly hard for the yearly vardon event, but ANGC on Sunday at the Masters? There would be scratch golfers who couldn't stop anything more than wedge on the greens.

It would be like an Olympic level heavyweight boxer used to 3x 2 minute rounds in headgear wearing 12oz gloves going up against Anthony Joshua or Dontay Wilder, or prime Tyson, in a professional bout over 10x 3 minute rounds with 10oz gloves and no head gear. They would get moidered.

[Mcgeeno]

It's 85 not 72. No galleries no pressure no OB.

 

Bogey half the holes, make a couple doubles and I'm sure if this loser scratch can muster up the courage he might even be able to make a birdie or two on the day.

 

This thread would be much shorter if the OP scenario was 78 or even 80 but we are talking +13.

 

I think it's doable if the scratch is legit.

[lowheel]

Course rating is supposedly 78, therefore a true scratch will almost always break 85 and has a decent chance of breaking 80. Not sure how to calculate the odds of getting a double, but it seems more likely than not he'd get one. Do all the naysayers think Augusta is somehow immune to the course rating system?

 

This is the issue that blows me away, its not simple math. Youre not going from some private or semi private or muni to an equivalent private or semi privat or muni. Your walking into augusta with Sunday conditions and length. Throw that rating out the window when were talking about this scenario.A miniscule amount of scratches can be considered for this task. i truly believe that because ive been there and watched PGA tour stars make doubles, triple and quds just like that yet a scratch wont make doubles because the rating. Were talking about the scenario presented by the op and those conditions.If Rickie Fowler shoots 76 this past masters sunday a arguable top 15-20 player in the world how is a club scratch who plays 6600 yard course not shooting over 85 in those same conditions?

 

Fowler had a bad day and shot a 76. Kuchar had a good one and shot a 67. Half way between the two is 71.5, about 6.5 shots below the estimated rating of 78 and roughly in line with what you'd expect a +7 to shoot (most estimates for top pros I've seen are in the +6 to +7 range).

 

Pros are great, but they're not consistently 14+ shots better than scratch.

 

Yes, they are. 12-15 on average.If a scratch plays with kuchar or fowler 10 times at the masters on sunday in those conditions from where they tee it off hed be lucky to finish within 10 once. its statistically proven because yes s you stated these guys are +6s and some +7s. Im a +4 and regularly beat scratches ( some who are my students by 10+ especially when they play the course from the back. pros ceiling and roof is very tight. A scratch in those conditions can shoot a score with a 20+ shot variable over 10 rounds

[lowheel]

It's 85 not 72. No galleries no pressure no OB.

 

Bogey half the holes, make a couple doubles and I'm sure if this loser scratch can muster up the courage he might even be able to make a birdie or two on the day.

 

This thread would be much shorter if the OP scenario was 78 or even 80 but we are talking +13.

 

I think it's doable if the scratch is legit.

 

You think so? playing at the holy grail of golf in those conditions will test your game like its never been tested before. there will be pressure

 

your last sentence i agree with for sure but there are so few that could handle it though

[SurfDuffer]

I think many people underestimate how good...good golfers are. A handicap index in my experience isn't a very accurate for most beyond their home course and the tees they routinely play. Also I think many people on here have a mindset that is limited because they haven't actually played with many good players......they simply don't have the frame of reference.

[youngwaldo]

Yes to the OP

[TurnHard Langer]

People who have never shot under par on a 7,000 yard course always overrate how hard it is to break 80 on a tour setup course. Breaking 80 there is not hard. It's shooting in the 60s that's hard. Bogeying half the holes and not making any birdies is what 80 is, 81 whatever. That's extremely horrible if you normal can shoot 72.

 

The same people who shoot over par all the time (most everybody), when they play with somebody who shoots 66 they think gee why aren't you playing on tour that was amazing. They don't realize that was just one round and there are a lot of guys who can do that.

 

Both of these misconceptions happen among 999/1000 people.

[double_d]

Friend and I were having a discussion. He says he could do it and would not only break 85, but 80 as well! Stipulations are no caddie, no cart, no walking the course beforehand, and 1 hour warmup before the round. Sunday tournament conditions, from the back tees. He said he wouldn't make a double bogey, and would birdie #13. What do you all think?

 

On the 85: With no crowd yes. With a Sunday gallery it would be iffy. Your conditions do not stipulate a gallery so I'll say Yes.

 

On the 80: I'm going to want that scorecard attested by someone I trust.

[rorygilmore9]

Yes without a doubt.

 

The VP of the company I work for played there the Monday after the 2015 Masters, with Jerome Bettis and 2 others. (forget the names of the other 2)

 

At the time he had a handicap index of 11.4, and went on to shoot a 92. Course was obvisouly still in Masters Tournament conditions. He said the most difficult thing about the course was putting, which we already would have guessed.

 

With that being said, I am pretty confident a scratch golfer could shoot a sub 85

[TheCityGame]

Yes without a doubt.

 

The VP of the company I work for played there the Monday after the 2015 Masters, with Jerome Bettis and 2 others. (forget the names of the other 2)

 

At the time he had a handicap index of 11.4, and went on to shoot a 92. Course was obvisouly still in Masters Tournament conditions. He said the most difficult thing about the course was putting, which we already would have guessed.

 

With that being said, I am pretty confident a scratch golfer could shoot a sub 85

Even though I'm on "team Yes", I highly doubt your 11.4 guy played from the tournament tees.