Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

rorygilmore9 · August 30, 2017

Not sure which tees he played. Guess I could ask, but I wont because if he said he did I am not here to try and prove anything to anyone..

jmvargas · August 30, 2017

this discussion will never be resolved unless a golfer who truly qualifies to the criteria of a scratch golfer goes out and tries it....

any sponsor with ties to Augusta out there?

i'm sure we can get some volunteers to play..

North Texas · August 30, 2017

this discussion will never be resolved unless a golfer who truly qualifies to the criteria of a scratch golfer goes out and tries it....

any sponsor with ties to Augusta out there?

i'm sure we can get some volunteers to play..

I'll be the first to volunteer. Even though I'm a 10 :taunt:

And, for the record, if I played a PGA pro in a match on a course set up in tournament conditions, I'm asking for at least 27 strokes.

Shilgy · August 30, 2017

And one question for low heel - you seem like a player that has been around the block...if you think the scratch has no chance at 85, then what do you think they'd shoot? I'm talking your normal club scratch. Shoots par sometimes, better sometimes, lots of mid 70s. A legit guy. Not a scratch who shoots 83 in every tournament.

I dont know if you read through some of the thread when i addressed this but i believe based on the OPs conditions and stipulations I feel a miniscule amount of scratches could break 85 under those rules. Just my opinion. Not all scratches are the same just as not all pros are the same the difference though is that pros are battle tested and better know how to score than your average club scratch and their game travels well.
The scenario unfolds 1 of 2 ways a real scratch usually shoots at worst 4-5 above under normal conditions if we base it on the 78.1 rating that is widely used here for augusta in sunday tournament conditions i believe that # nearly triples but likely doubles. I believe obee thinks the real # to discuss is 81 or 82 being a certainty but im not sure if he means that under the OPs conditions.
I believe that there are a handful of scratches in north america that can handle the stage and the speed/slope of these greens to break that #. i would guess from places ive played id bet on club scratches from Oakmont, Oakland Hills, Winged Foot and a few others would be properly equipped to take that challenge on site unseen as the OP suggests. i dont think its impossible but a stretch because of the stipulations
Its hard to give a # without seeing this persons scoring and what courses they play. The 2 Scratch options you presented are not mutually exclusive.I teach a few scratches as i previously stated and as you know tournaments add 4-5 shots per round so 80 isnt out of the question if youre out of your comfort zone.
I believe an am tourney tested scratch has a leg up in this scenario versus just a club scratch who plays the club championship and maybe some interclub comps during the summer.
Great discussion for sure though and would make a great Golf channel reality show!

Ok so what's your number then? You said "4 to 5 over doubles or triples." Are you then meaning 93 (15 over 78.1)? Surely there's a number where we all agree that a normal scratch player will just pull it together enough to shoot it. Like for example, I'm sure we'd both agree that a normal scratch would almost always break 125 out there. So what's your number? Mine is honestly right about 85. I think a normal scratch would break 85 most of the time. I think obee and I are pretty close to on the same page. I just want to hear how far apart we are from you. Is it 93? 100?

EDIT: And for the record, I have often participated in the "you have no idea how good pros are" argument. There is a web.com event hosted at my home course every year, and those guys absolutely torch our course - and of course, they aren't the guys who even get to play in the Masters. So I am 100% familiar with how good they really are after years and years of watching that. But I don't believe a tournament with a tournament average of 73.88* is going to leave your average scratch golfer "no chance" of breaking 85. If those guys play to traveling +7 or +8 so, and our hypothetical scratch plays to a traveling 2, then we're probably looking in the 83-84 range, on average.

*See here: https://www.cbssport...ers/coursestats I just pulled that randomly and assume it's more or less true to average form.

As for a # im sorry i thought i mentioned that previously. For me it would be 88-92 in the scenario presented. yes im serious. Alot of guys in this thread got defensive because all scratches are not the same yet people cling to index/ course ratings, math!! without looking at the realities of where people play. I co setup the club championship at my home course 75.3 143 and plays 7402 from the tips. greens are 11.5- 12. we have great players, 25 scratch or better. last 5 years club champ over 4 days never better than +10. haf these guys are playing it from 6400 90% of the time and never shoot worse than 75 yet when stretched barely break 80 if that. How come? the rating say his index at worst shoots x score but it never if ever happens. How come?

Assuming a par 72? Your course rating is 3.3 over par-that's 13.2 over four rounds. Any scratch to +2 shooting +10 over four days beat his handicap and the course rating. How does a scratch shooting 2.5-4 over par each day for four days prove the same guy cannot shoot +13 or better at Augusta?

I am on the fence on this whole conversation but don't see your argument in this post.

As long as we are not giving the player the benefit of a caddie or practice round let's not tell him it is Augusta either. Just a tough course we want him to try. That should lower the odds-less intimidation.

RRFireblade · August 30, 2017

Depends on how the green are cut and where the pins are, that's pretty much Augusta's primary defense.

Regardless, Scratch....Augusta.....Sub 80, I would bet a large sum against, let me know how much he wants to post up. :)

Matt J · August 30, 2017

Can't believe this thread is still going and no talk of the caddie !?!

I vote under with a caddie and over without.

A scratch can hit all the shots. I'm a 6 and feel I'd have a chance to break 85 with a great caddie.

I've walked the grounds and there are some good bailouts. Someone like Obee leaves it in the right place and gives himself a chance to get up and down.

It's all about the caddie.

bobfoster · August 30, 2017

I was close to scratch when I played it ... and barely broke 100. The greens are just insane.

CallawayLefty · August 30, 2017

Depends on how the green are cut and where the pins are, that's pretty much Augusta's primary defense.

Regardless,
Scratch....Augusta.....Sub 80, I would bet a large sum against, let me know how much he wants to post up. :)

Sub-80 I'd almost bet my life savings. Sub 85 (the topic of this thread) gets a little closer. I think that's right about the cutoff point.

CallawayLefty · August 30, 2017

People who have never shot under par on a 7,000 yard course always overrate how hard it is to break 80 on a tour setup course. Breaking 80 there is not hard. It's shooting in the 60s that's hard. Bogeying half the holes and not making any birdies is what 80 is, 81 whatever. That's extremely horrible if you normal can shoot 72.

The same people who shoot over par all the time (most everybody), when they play with somebody who shoots 66 they think gee why aren't you playing on tour that was amazing. They don't realize that was just one round and there are a lot of guys who can do that.

Both of these misconceptions happen among 999/1000 people.

Agreed. And Augusta doesn't have a lot of holes where you're going to make a 9 (like holes with gunch, brush, trees, etc.). That's where your big numbers come in. Tough green complexes means you make bogies where you should have made pars and doubles where you should have made bogies. But that's not 100% of the time. I said it in many posts above, but seems to me like breaking 80 is going to be a tall order, breaking 90 is close to a no-brainer, and breaking 85 is probably more like a 75%/25% proposition. I think it this scratch played incredible, they could break 80. If they played normal, then would typically break 85. If they played like crap, then yes of course, they'd go over 85 and even potentially 90.

wareagle12 · August 30, 2017

I've been reading this thread for a while and haven't commented. I think everyone hit it dead on early. It completely depends on the type of "scratch" golfer. A normal club golfer that has played thousands of rounds on their own shortish course and who doesn't play many tourney or away rounds would not fare well.

FWIW, when I was younger and first attained a scratch handicap, I had the opportunity to play Pinehurst number 2 with no caddie. Obviously not tournament conditions, but I played it before the renovation when it was the same as the 2005 open. Rough was deep greens probably rolling about 11-12. It was the first time I'd played a course of that magnitude and it would be number 2 on my list of US courses to play behind Augusta. I played every US Open tee that was cut (some were grown over). The first tee jitters were much like a tournament. I started very poorly but managed even on the back to shoot 79. Those greens are pretty famous for undulation. I was driving poorly. Putted decent. Pretty good wedge game.

I probably averaged 315-320 off tee and ended up in rough 50% of the time.

I am a .2 currently and preparing for mid am qualifying next month. I feel my game is much better than it was then (10 years ago) and I'm driving much more accurately.

I would expect the same results at Augusta. Nervous scraping around the first few and settling in and having several birdie looks and several 3 putts.

9 over should be doable but 13 would be probable.

Just my opinion.

This thread is awesome, one of my favorites.

Forged4ever · August 30, 2017

From the "Pope of Slope" and widely considered THE foremost authority on handicaps along with Course ratings/slope, Dean Knuth, former Senior Director of the USGA Handicap Committee along with being THE primary designer of the USGA Rating/Slope system is this chart regarding golfers, handicaps, Augusta and forecasted scores...

I hope that it's legible?

Stay well Gals & Gents?

RP

Forged4ever · August 30, 2017

Depends on how the green are cut and where the pins are, that's pretty much Augusta's primary defense.

Regardless, Scratch....Augusta.....Sub 80, I would bet a large sum against, let me know how much he wants to post up. :)

HaHaHa, from out of nowhere, The Big Dog walks out, drops a ball, pulls a club and sends it deeeeep....

Post up beeeaaatches???

I hope that you're well Bro and having a nice season?

My Best?

Richard

cdnglf · August 30, 2017

From the "Pope of Slope" and widely considered THE foremost authority on handicaps along with Course ratings/slope, Dean Knuth, former Senior Director of the USGA Handicap Committee along with being THE primary designer of the USGA Rating/Slope system is this chart regarding golfers, handicaps, Augusta and forecasted scores...

Stop that. Math and reason are no substitute for personal anecdotes and selective memory....

lowheel · August 30, 2017

And one question for low heel - you seem like a player that has been around the block...if you think the scratch has no chance at 85, then what do you think they'd shoot? I'm talking your normal club scratch. Shoots par sometimes, better sometimes, lots of mid 70s. A legit guy. Not a scratch who shoots 83 in every tournament.

I dont know if you read through some of the thread when i addressed this but i believe based on the OPs conditions and stipulations I feel a miniscule amount of scratches could break 85 under those rules. Just my opinion. Not all scratches are the same just as not all pros are the same the difference though is that pros are battle tested and better know how to score than your average club scratch and their game travels well.
The scenario unfolds 1 of 2 ways a real scratch usually shoots at worst 4-5 above under normal conditions if we base it on the 78.1 rating that is widely used here for augusta in sunday tournament conditions i believe that # nearly triples but likely doubles. I believe obee thinks the real # to discuss is 81 or 82 being a certainty but im not sure if he means that under the OPs conditions.
I believe that there are a handful of scratches in north america that can handle the stage and the speed/slope of these greens to break that #. i would guess from places ive played id bet on club scratches from Oakmont, Oakland Hills, Winged Foot and a few others would be properly equipped to take that challenge on site unseen as the OP suggests. i dont think its impossible but a stretch because of the stipulations
Its hard to give a # without seeing this persons scoring and what courses they play. The 2 Scratch options you presented are not mutually exclusive.I teach a few scratches as i previously stated and as you know tournaments add 4-5 shots per round so 80 isnt out of the question if youre out of your comfort zone.
I believe an am tourney tested scratch has a leg up in this scenario versus just a club scratch who plays the club championship and maybe some interclub comps during the summer.
Great discussion for sure though and would make a great Golf channel reality show!

Ok so what's your number then? You said "4 to 5 over doubles or triples." Are you then meaning 93 (15 over 78.1)? Surely there's a number where we all agree that a normal scratch player will just pull it together enough to shoot it. Like for example, I'm sure we'd both agree that a normal scratch would almost always break 125 out there. So what's your number? Mine is honestly right about 85. I think a normal scratch would break 85 most of the time. I think obee and I are pretty close to on the same page. I just want to hear how far apart we are from you. Is it 93? 100?

EDIT: And for the record, I have often participated in the "you have no idea how good pros are" argument. There is a web.com event hosted at my home course every year, and those guys absolutely torch our course - and of course, they aren't the guys who even get to play in the Masters. So I am 100% familiar with how good they really are after years and years of watching that. But I don't believe a tournament with a tournament average of 73.88* is going to leave your average scratch golfer "no chance" of breaking 85. If those guys play to traveling +7 or +8 so, and our hypothetical scratch plays to a traveling 2, then we're probably looking in the 83-84 range, on average.

*See here: https://www.cbssport...ers/coursestats I just pulled that randomly and assume it's more or less true to average form.

As for a # im sorry i thought i mentioned that previously. For me it would be 88-92 in the scenario presented. yes im serious. Alot of guys in this thread got defensive because all scratches are not the same yet people cling to index/ course ratings, math!! without looking at the realities of where people play. I co setup the club championship at my home course 75.3 143 and plays 7402 from the tips. greens are 11.5- 12. we have great players, 25 scratch or better. last 5 years club champ over 4 days never better than +10. haf these guys are playing it from 6400 90% of the time and never shoot worse than 75 yet when stretched barely break 80 if that. How come? the rating say his index at worst shoots x score but it never if ever happens. How come?
Assuming a par 72? Your course rating is 3.3 over par-that's 13.2 over four rounds. Any scratch to +2 shooting +10 over four days beat his handicap and the course rating. How does a scratch shooting 2.5-4 over par each day for four days prove the same guy cannot shoot +13 or better at Augusta?
I am on the fence on this whole conversation but don't see your argument in this post.

As long as we are not giving the player the benefit of a caddie or practice round let's not tell him it is Augusta either. Just a tough course we want him to try. That should lower the odds-less intimidation.

Its a 72. Also, for context on my stated # in the club championship the kid who won the last 2 years in the a flight (scratch) is going to to a D2 school on a golf scholarship this fall. he shot +11 last year +10 the year before. the next best both years was 8 and 9 back. 22 scratches one year 21 the next and this year alot of new members and 5 more scratches will have a go. They play between 50-80 rounds there per year. Some/most with carts. most from almost 800-1000 yards less. So essentially you add pressure grow the rough a little literally 1.5 inches more than standard, speed up the greens to 12.5 from 11-11.5 and move them back in tees and the result is their scores become what they become. this is a course theyve seen 100s 1000s of times and it does that to them. Augusta would have that effect in multiples in the scenario the OP suggests. No amount of math can predict or prepare or hit shots for you.

jmvargas · August 30, 2017

this is all conjecture so far guys!

please someone go do it already!!

SurfDuffer · August 31, 2017

Can't believe this thread is still going and no talk of the caddie !?!

I vote under with a caddie and over without.

A scratch can hit all the shots. I'm a 6 and feel I'd have a chance to break 85 with a great caddie.

I've walked the grounds and there are some good bailouts. Someone like Obee leaves it in the right place and gives himself a chance to get up and down.

It's all about the caddie.

Very true. I played a course a few years ago that was 7,111 yards and the rating 75.5/146 from the tees we played. As a 6 I shot an 84 on a day where I didn't hit the ball well at all. The difference was I had a local caddie who gave me incredible reads on chips and putts that I would never have gotten right on my own. Without the caddie I might have shot a 95. Had I brought my A game that day with is help I would easily have shot under 80.

RRFireblade · August 31, 2017

Depends on how the green are cut and where the pins are, that's pretty much Augusta's primary defense.

Regardless, Scratch....Augusta.....Sub 80, I would bet a large sum against, let me know how much he wants to post up. :)
HaHaHa, from out of nowhere, The Big Dog walks out, drops a ball, pulls a club and sends it deeeeep....

Post up beeeaaatches

I hope that you're well Bro and having a nice season

My Best
Richard

Lol, good to hear from you Richard. Hope all is well. :)

Forged4ever · August 31, 2017

From the "Pope of Slope" and widely considered THE foremost authority on handicaps along with Course ratings/slope, Dean Knuth, former Senior Director of the USGA Handicap Committee along with being THE primary designer of the USGA Rating/Slope system is this chart regarding golfers, handicaps, Augusta and forecasted scores...

Stop that. Math and reason are no substitute for personal anecdotes and selective memory....

As the King of both of the latter, I whole heatedly concur???

Cheers?

RP

grm24 · August 31, 2017

From the "Pope of Slope" and widely considered THE foremost authority on handicaps along with Course ratings/slope, Dean Knuth, former Senior Director of the USGA Handicap Committee along with being THE primary designer of the USGA Rating/Slope system is this chart regarding golfers, handicaps, Augusta and forecasted scores...

Stop that. Math and reason are no substitute for personal anecdotes and selective memory....
As the King of both of the latter, I whole heatedly concur

Cheers
RP

Sean Knapp concluded a pretty damn good week this afternoon. I take you are friends with him with his connection to NS.

playa · August 31, 2017

I think many people underestimate how good...good golfers are. A handicap index in my experience isn't a very accurate for most beyond their home course and the tees they routinely play. Also I think many people on here have a mindset that is limited because they haven't actually played with many good players......they simply don't have the frame of reference.

Home track specialists are definitely a factor in handicaps. In Sydney we have a major pennants season. These are played by the best players at each club. The amount of times I have seen scratch and plus golfers from visiting clubs get smoked by 3 and 4 caps at our club is amazing. Results overwhelmingly favor home sides, particularly on quirky golf courses like my home track. I have also seen plenty of low cap club players who can't get near their cap on longer courses.

lowheel · August 31, 2017

I think many people underestimate how good...good golfers are. A handicap index in my experience isn't a very accurate for most beyond their home course and the tees they routinely play. Also I think many people on here have a mindset that is limited because they haven't actually played with many good players......they simply don't have the frame of reference.
Home track specialists are definitely a factor in handicaps. In Sydney we have a major pennants season. These are played by the best players at each club. The amount of times I have seen scratch and plus golfers from visiting clubs get smoked by 3 and 4 caps at our club is amazing. Results overwhelmingly favor home sides, particularly on quirky golf courses like my home track. I have also seen plenty of low cap club players who can't get near their cap on longer courses.

This is pretty spot on and the point i was trying to make. The index says what youre supposed to shoot but there is no suppose to in golf with so many different variables daily. Add augusta in the scenario the OP presents and its a different animal.its not insulting anybody just laying out the variables that people dont play close to their cap when outside their comfort zone. Some do but its a miniscule percentage

jmvargas · August 31, 2017

just curious but assuming you have access to Augusta how much are the green fees?

i also realise your host will be taking care of this but just how much will it cost him?

thanks for any replies...

serious answers pls..

Obee · August 31, 2017

just curious but assuming you have access to Augusta how much are the green fees?

i also realise your host will be taking care of this but just how much will it cost him?

thanks for any replies...

serious answers pls..

Most elite clubs have a very modest guest fee of around $100. Sometimes less.

It would not surprise me at all if Augusta had zero guest fee and relied on members to not abuse the policy.

jmvargas · August 31, 2017

just curious but assuming you have access to Augusta how much are the green fees?

i also realise your host will be taking care of this but just how much will it cost him?

thanks for any replies...

serious answers pls..

Most elite clubs have a very modest guest fee of around $100. Sometimes less.

It would not surprise me at all if Augusta had zero guest fee and relied on members to not abuse the policy.

thanks Obee..

lowheel · August 31, 2017

just curious but assuming you have access to Augusta how much are the green fees?

i also realise your host will be taking care of this but just how much will it cost him?

thanks for any replies...

serious answers pls..

Most elite clubs have a very modest guest fee of around $100. Sometimes less.

It would not surprise me at all if Augusta had zero guest fee and relied on members to not abuse the policy.

Augusta is closed for alot of the year. My friend works for Coca Cola in Atlanta and alot of the execs play there often.Theyre billed a surprisingly low flat rate but also eat and drink like bosses so maybe thats the requirement.Every couple of years he gets the week passes and thats how i attend the masters that often. he still hasnt played yet but hes about a promotion away from being in that rotation.Im hoping everyday to get that call " do you want to play augusta?"

Obee · August 31, 2017

just curious but assuming you have access to Augusta how much are the green fees?

i also realise your host will be taking care of this but just how much will it cost him?

thanks for any replies...

serious answers pls..

Most elite clubs have a very modest guest fee of around $100. Sometimes less.

It would not surprise me at all if Augusta had zero guest fee and relied on members to not abuse the policy.

Augusta is closed for alot of the year. My friend works for Coca Cola in Atlanta and alot of the execs play there often.Theyre billed a surprisingly low flat rate but also eat and drink like bosses so maybe thats the requirement.Every couple of years he gets the week passes and thats how i attend the masters that often. he still hasnt played yet but hes about a promotion away from being in that rotation.Im hoping everyday to get that call " do you want to play augusta?"

Can I join you?

Give me 4 and 4. I'll play you for $5k, my brother!! :-)

lowheel · August 31, 2017

just curious but assuming you have access to Augusta how much are the green fees?

i also realise your host will be taking care of this but just how much will it cost him?

thanks for any replies...

serious answers pls..

Most elite clubs have a very modest guest fee of around $100. Sometimes less.

It would not surprise me at all if Augusta had zero guest fee and relied on members to not abuse the policy.

Augusta is closed for alot of the year. My friend works for Coca Cola in Atlanta and alot of the execs play there often.Theyre billed a surprisingly low flat rate but also eat and drink like bosses so maybe thats the requirement.Every couple of years he gets the week passes and thats how i attend the masters that often. he still hasnt played yet but hes about a promotion away from being in that rotation.Im hoping everyday to get that call " do you want to play augusta?"

Can I join you?

Give me 4 and 4. I'll play you for $5k, my brother!! :-)

I dont know you and Id take you with me!!!! I know how much you appreciate the game. Its the holy grail. Id take anybody and everybody if I could. I harass my bud monthly about it. He says when i get on you get on!

SurfDuffer · September 1, 2017

I think many people underestimate how good...good golfers are. A handicap index in my experience isn't a very accurate for most beyond their home course and the tees they routinely play. Also I think many people on here have a mindset that is limited because they haven't actually played with many good players......they simply don't have the frame of reference.
Home track specialists are definitely a factor in handicaps. In Sydney we have a major pennants season. These are played by the best players at each club. The amount of times I have seen scratch and plus golfers from visiting clubs get smoked by 3 and 4 caps at our club is amazing. Results overwhelmingly favor home sides, particularly on quirky golf courses like my home track. I have also seen plenty of low cap club players who can't get near their cap on longer courses.

My bigger point is that many who post here likely have not played with good golfers. They just don't have a decent frame of reference so they think its impossible. You'll read the same things in many of the distance related threads that appear here. They've never played with real long hitters so to them its unfathomable. For a truly good golfer I don't think the original challenge would be that difficult regardless of if their listed caps are +3 to 5 on paper. Guys who can really play will find their way around that course and will make plenty of pars and 85 would not be a difficult number. I don't put much stock in handicaps because I've seen too much BS with them. You know who the real players are when you play with them or wen you look at the guys at the top of the results in your regional golf association. These guys would have no problem with 85.

ssfranny · September 1, 2017

Friend and I were having a discussion. He says he could do it and would not only break 85, but 80 as well! Stipulations are no caddie, no cart, no walking the course beforehand, and 1 hour warmup before the round. Sunday tournament conditions, from the back tees. He said he wouldn't make a double bogey, and would birdie #13. What do you all think?

I think he needs to be committed that's crazy talk even a scratch golfer given no practice round with those greens at a 14 Stimp no way he's making many 2 putts. And most scratch golfers aren't playing that length of course.

Does your buddy think he can return a Andy Roddick serve and a hit a Clayton Kershaw fastball too?

ssfranny · September 1, 2017

Sunday tournament conditions, from the tournament tees, with no practice round? And he's never played there before? And his handicap is around 0? Your friend is probably joking. He'd have to hole like 3 iron shots to have a chance to break 80. I think if he played really well he would shoot 82-85.

Augusta is not a normal golf course. You can't prepare for those greens without playing several practice rounds. Not to mention knowing where to miss, etc. He would need to play it on Xbox a few dozen times to get an idea : )

My guess would be 87.

What would kill his score is the putting. I just don't see an 85 being feasible like others mentioned unless he's hitting over 300 yards.