Rocket Mortgage Classic - does anyone care?

[MUNIGRIT]

Lol that was just the cover up for the actual steroids they were taking.

[larciel]

Is YJS officially off the earth now? ;(

[mahonie]

His bulking up of his larger muscles will detract from the feeling in the smaller muscles. Helps with driver and putter (as he’s mastered the arm-anchor technique) but his short game will suffer. He’ll be looking to perfect the arm-lock pitch and arm-anchor chip in the coming months.

[iBanesto]

Is DeChambeau's driving straight enough for the Masters or US Open though?

[drbonesvt]

Sales of jumbo max (?) and sik through the roof this week?

[NoTalentLefty]

lol... But you’re probably on to something. Somebodies out there think’n gotta be the equipment.

[vsabre]

Going to be hard to keep those 5.5 degree heads in stock!

[smashdn]

The answer to winning has always been putting. The problem with putting is that to separate yourself at that level, across four rounds, it is more about luck than skill necessarily. The SG data bears that out. Where the field is ~50% make from 8' you need two more to fall. You need that 30 footer to go in. A sand shot to go in or a chip to trundle in for birdie instead of a tap in par. That stuff is luck but luck is part of it.

And that is not said to take anything away from BD or this win, most every win on tour comes down to putting luck.

[smashdn]

If you start driving it that far do you not need to work the ball somewhat? Especially at ANGC to take advantage of the rolls and doglegs?

[rawdog]

This is spot on and exactly why Bryson refers trying to gain the "house" advantage. If you set a higher "floor" for strokes gained by improving your long game with massive drives, when those putts fall at an above-normal rate, you'll be in position to win.

 

You have to be willing to accept failure and that some weeks you're going to look silly. But if you want to accumulate wins, this is the most logical way to do it.

[smashdn]

The number one variable that improves your chances of your next shot going in the hole is proximity to the hole. This sounds really basic but the closer you are to the hole the closer your next shot will be to the hole including making it (as a rule). The further your drives, the closer your approaches. The closer your approaches the closer your approach shot will land to the hole. The closer to the hole (the shorter the putt) the more likely it is going in the hole. It's basic but the execution becomes the trick.

[cxx]

If DJ could develop a wedge game to complement his driving, Bryson can do the same. DJ's wedge game was non-existent early on.

[caniac6]

I wonder if Jack and Gary are going to say that Bryson shouldn't be allowed to lift weights and eat a lot. Dial back Bryson! Also, 2 out of the last 3 tournaments have been won by guys using arm lock putters. The USGA, and R&A can't be happy about that.

[ebrasmus21]

Chalk this up as a win for science.

[RareSight]

While Bryson apparently "exposes his ability to get close to the hole from inside 100 yds" & "seems to be very inconsistent from a scoring perspective", he still won by 3 shots. Just imagine if Bryson sorted his "100 yds" in game and "consistency".

[Medson]

I'm curious how is Bryson's new found distance different from what Tiger did to the rest of golf world in 90s?

Hitting a long way is not new, and there have been lots of discussion on this topic. Wasn't there a USGA distance report recently?

I don't understand why there are so much attention generated on Bryson. I'm sincerely curious.

[RareSight]

“The answer to winning has always been putting.” - smashdn

That’s simply not true. The performance analysis over seasons & careers shows clearly that the quality of how a golfer hits the ball Tee to Green impacts the heavy majority of their scoring behind a win.

[smashdn]

Take it up with Mark Broadie.

 

You also changed the goalposts with your statement from the context of mine. Having the lowest score for one round or for four rounds, most of the time on the PGA Tour is the result of riding a "hot putter." Hot putting (putting well better than expected averages) is luck. Being near the top consistently week in and week out is about ball striking. The ability to turn the intersection of those metrics is winning often.

[the bishop]

His proximity to the hole metrics were not good last week (not withstanding the way his measured drives skewed the ShotLink numbers to make them look worse than they were). He had a great week with the putter as well. IF he can keep the driving accuracy where it is he's almost always going to be in contention since he'll destroy the par 5's. Whether it results in more or more consistent winning for him remains to be seen. Its certainly entertaining to watch. But I don't see any reason to modify anything I wrote previously. And again if he can maintain the driving accuracy he currently has I would make him the favorite for the US Open later this year.

[RareSight]

No “goal post changed” as you talked about the “context” of “winning” so I specifically and clearly replied with “scoring behind a win”. And I’ll back up my post with the actual performance facts over an opinion.

Here are the Strokes Gained performance facts for *all winners* across 2016-2019, so that’s 4 seasons of winners.

All winners during this 2016-2019 period won with their highest scoring area in: 

• SG-T2G in 91 events

• SG-Putting in 21 events

** Individual events & SG recorded over all 4 rounds. Last 2 events in 2018 results can’t be found.

So to be crystal clear, that’s 91 events were won over these 4 years (2016-2019) due to the winners having the majority of their scoring coming from their Tee to Green, compared to just 21 wins with Putting.

––

Here’s also Mark Broadie in his owns words talking about Tee to Green & Ballstriking being the key to winning and scoring.Mark Broadie: "It turns out that the best players win and they gain the most strokes because of their approach shots, not because of their putting ability"Mark Broadie: “an aggressive long-game approach to the hole is more important than the putting game.”Mark Broadie: “There are, of course, many different ways to win a golf tournament, but a clear pattern emerged when I analyzed a large sample of results on the PGA Tour since 2013. The typical winner is a better-than-Tour-average player whose primary strength is great approach play. For the season, golfers who've won on Tour play 1.1 strokes better per round than the field, with 42 percent of that gain coming from approach shots, 35 percent from driving, 22 percent from putting and 15 percent from the short game. Do the math, and you'll see that superior ballstriking (driving and approach play) accounts for a significant 77 percent of the typical winner's advantage.”Mark Broadie & Sean Foley: “Much of what we believe about golf stats and cliches has just been handed down to us… players create “stories” about themselves. The data helps separate fact from fiction. Looking at SG, there’s more than one way to be the best in golf, but for the most part the separator is Long Game, specifically Approach shots, and this holds true for Tiger at this best, same with Jack and Annika Sorenstam.”Mark Broadie: "The long game is the best separator between the best tour pros and average tour pros," Broadie said. "The long game explains about two-thirds of scoring."

[smashdn]

Don't disagree with any of those quotes you posted regarding season long performance. Even in your third quote Broadie says "season." Long game puts you near the top, consistently, over the long haul. Winning is a product of having a great putting performance that tournament.

 

I don't have the book in front of me at work but I can pull you the page number and type it out tomorrow where he says it.

 

BD was number one in SG-Putting as well. 7.8 and some change total, 1.958 average/round.

[MUNIGRIT]

People get too wrapped up in Strokes Gained stats. There was a flaw in approach shots that didn't register as approach shots if inside a certain distance because it would never expect your approach shot to be that close. Even if Bryson's numbers are not that great the sheer amount of wedges he will hit into the greens and short irons for 2 putt birdies will make him a ton of money and win some tournaments.

[mahonie]

I agree that the long game is absolutely key to winning on the PGA Tour...all of the courses are set up that way. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist or even The Scientist to work that out. Fairways are wide and the rough is not anywhere near penal. The first cut of rough is so benign it is actually classed as ‘fairway’ for Strokes Gained purposes by the PGA Tour. Pros in Detroit were given ‘fairways’ that were 50-70 yards wide and they still couldn’t hit them, but it hardly mattered when they were only a wedge from the green after flailing away.

If the PGA Tour actually played any courses where shotmaking actually meant something, I think you would find the shots gained stats would be all over the place and not worth a bean.

[grm24]

Further update of Fowler and his irons. There's more to the story behind Rickie Fowler's iron change - Wall-to-Wall

[ebrasmus21]

Rick, for F sake, put the butter knives back in play

[RareSight]

Because you simply can’t “disagree” with any of Broadie’s quotes as you originally asked me to “take it up with Broadie” and now his own words about “winning” & season long performance support what I originally said and that’s Tee to Green is the biggest key to scoring for *winners*, not just play over a season, but over the heavy majority of individual 4 round events in order to *win*. 

Perhaps you missed the key Broadie quote specifically talking about the key game area behind how the best players “win”, so let me repeat Broadie’s own words again (see below) about what game area is key for the best players to “win”.Mark Broadie: "It turns out that the best players WIN and they gain the most strokes because of their approach shots, not because of their putting ability"Mark Broadie: “Do the math, and you'll see that superior ballstriking (driving and approach play) accounts for a significant 77 percent of the typical WINNER’S advantage.”

And what’s even more irrefutable are the performance results for each individual win over a 4 year period (2016-2019) that again support my original comment & Broadie’s showing 91 events were won due to superior Tee to Green over Putting vs only 21 events won due to superior Putting over Tee to Green.

Results don’t lie.

[RareSight]

For decades people (amateurs & professionals) use to believe the now factually disproven antiquated mantra of "Drive for show, Putt for $$$"... So it did literally take a "scientist" in Mark Broadie to finally reveal to us what's actually going on regarding scoring and the game area scoring behind winning.

[mahonie]

...for PGA Tour events where the long game is not punished.

Try converting the data to a 6,100 yard course where the fairways are 18 yards wide, dog-legged, protected by trees and anything more than 20 yards offline off the tee is in serious trouble or worse, lost in the woods. If you’re not in the right part of that narrow fairway, you’re blocked out and need to move the ball to get at the green. Driver comes into play on 8 holes only unless you think the risk is worth it. Greens are extremely small so there is a heavy reliance on getting up and down. In short, you need a good all round game to score well. The course I’m thinking of is a challenge but at the same time great fun to play. Every hole has risk/reward but strategic play results in the best score. Par is 71 and the course record is 65 (course was founded in 1974).

[smashdn]

Page 118. Footnote 13.

My point was that putting, and getting hot with the putter, is the little extra that pushes them over the edge to win. If BD is average SG-Putting does he win? And the additional point was that putting, well above field average is more often due to luck than skill. Some guys can consistently bank on making up shots on the field with superior tee to green play, most not so with putting, and that is where the luck component comes in.

The percentages you bring up are something like putting has a 15% impact on scoring over a season long performance. In a winning effort it has a 35% impact. So, you are absolutely correct, 65% of the scoring, the majority, is comprised of the tee to green game, even in a win. I was not disputing or attempting to refute that. It was on the additional 20% impact I was pointing out. (I will look for the pages for those numbers around lunch time.)

BD actually lost strokes to the field with his approaches (-.121).

I do not have the data from the 2016-2019 events that you are talking about. I am only referencing the book and the data from the pga website. If Broadie has come to different conclusion based upon that newer data set then I am not aware and I apologize.

 

"For decades people (amateurs & professionals) use to believe the now factually disproven antiquated mantra of "Drive for show, Putt for $$$"... So it did literally take a "scientist" in Mark Broadie to finally reveal to us what's actually going on regarding scoring and the game area scoring behind winning."

 

Hogan said the three most important clubs where Driver, Putter, Wedge. Of course he didn't bother to, nor have the ability to without computers, to crunch the numbers. Not sure when he said that but his troubles with putting may have played into his including the putter in his statement as well.

[RareSight]

The multi-millions of performance facts Broadie has measured are from 2010 onwards and that includes for both Amateur & Professionals in the early phase pre-PGA Tour, but it all still shows regardless of the course or course set up (ie US Open’s with thicker rough, narrower fairways) that Tee to Green is the key to scoring & winning the heavy majority of the time – and that would include your course / set-up you describe because this setup / type of course would require *even greater* ability Tee to Green to move around & score around.

So basically you’re supporting my point here… that it literally took a “scientist” to de-myth, debunk the antiquated and myopic adage believed by most in the game of ‘Drive for show, Putt for $$$’… but this has never been true and thanks to a “scientist” in Broadie we now have impartial measurable facts to reveal the truth behind scoring & winning comes down to Tee to Green the heavy majority of the time.