"Every shot counts" – When to concede a putt.

[Newby]

 

Just browsing through some old files. What do you think?

 

There is a table for probability by skill level for making putts based on millions of data points. 
We're not playing against the pros here. Most of us aren't playing club level against scratch players either.

 

From 2-feet, a scratch player has a 99% chance of making it. Great. An 18 handicapper 95%.

That's 1-in-20 he misses. If he faces 18 putts from 2 feet for second putts during a round, he's likely to miss at least one. And that's 2-footers. 

From 3 feet a scratch player only makes 93%. That's almost missing 1-in-10. During 18 holes he'll most likely miss one and often miss 2. An 18 handicapper from 3-feet? 84%. He's missing almost 1-in-5. To concede any 3 footers to an 18 handicapper is a losing proposition. 

Never ever concede 4-footers. Pros only make 88%. They miss 1-in-10. Scratch is 80%, they miss 1-in-5. An 18 capper hits 65% from 4 feet. Concede a 4-footer to an 18 capper for a half if you don't like winning. He'll miss a third of the time. 

I really hope nobody concedes 5-footers. Pros miss 1-in-4 at 77%. Scratch miss 1-in-3 at 66% and 18 cappers break even at 50%. 

It's a math problem. Conceding a putt, you give away any chance at a miss. 

Lastly, you can use the old rule of thumb for concessions. If you'd be nervous to putt it, he likely is too. Make him putt. If you wouldn't be, he likely isn't either, have him pick it up. Never ever concede a putt you'd be nervous to make yourself.

[kiwigolf72]

I used to play a lot of golf with an old guy who over his career had won close to 20 senior club championships.

His theory was if your opponent putted and left it short, he would give them the next putt, no matter the distance.

If his opponent putted and got it past the hole, then he would make his opponent putt, no matter the distance. 

He was convinced that over 18 holes he was training by reward for his opponent to leave their putts short.

[2bGood]

I do't think you can reduce, giving putts to a mathematic table. There is far more strategy to it, and many other factors play in to it.

[nsxguy]

26 minutes ago, kiwigolf72 said:

I used to play a lot of golf with an old guy who over his career had won close to 20 senior club championships.

His theory was if your opponent putted and left it short, he would give them the next putt, no matter the distance.

If his opponent putted and got it past the hole, then he would make his opponent putt, no matter the distance. 

He was convinced that over 18 holes he was training by reward for his opponent to leave their putts short.

 

Now THAT is a very interesting psychological ploy. 👍

 

Personally, I'll likely concede a 2-footer, but 3 is too much.

 

Also, I'm OK with the old method of conceding some ticklers early but making the guy put 'em towards the end.

[rogolf]

I played in a provincial amateur many years ago.  It was one of my first, and it was match play.  In one match, I was playing a "veteran", he had been there many times before.  On about the 7th hole, I didn't concede a  2 1/2 ft putt.  He missed, and on the way to the next tee, I heard him muttering about me not conceding that putt.  At that point, I knew that I had him beat, and I didn't concede anything over 2 feet for the rest of the round.

It's like a test, fail once and there are no more free passes.

Some players don't give a right-handed players short left to right putts.

Edited October 3, 2023 by rogolf

[kiwigolf72]

1 hour ago, nsxguy said:

 

Now THAT is a very interesting psychological ploy. 👍

 

Personally, I'll likely concede a 2-footer, but 3 is too much.

 

Also, I'm OK with the old method of conceding some ticklers early but making the guy put 'em towards the end.

He was a very good golfer, he won the club champs close to 20 times so maybe he was on to something. The last time I played with him he was 81 and shot an easy little 79.

 

[kiwigolf72]

30 minutes ago, rogolf said:

I played in a provincial amateur many years ago.  It was one of my first, and it was match play.  In one match, I was playing a "veteran", he had been there many times before.  On about the 7th hole, I didn't concede a  2 1/2 putt.  He missed, and on the way to the next tee, I heard him muttering about me not conceding that putt.  At that point, I knew that I had him beat, and I didn't concede anything over 2 feet for the rest of the round.

It's like a test, fail once and there are no more free passes.

Some players don't give a right-handed player short left to right putts.

Agreed, it can upset the opposition when you don't concede the putt, I have always expected to have to hole them all so doesn't worry me 

[Nickb333]

I’ve competed in a lot of match play events. All were handicapped. 
 

I’d give putts based on a few things;
 

Does my opponent really play as poorly or as well as his handicap suggests?

Does my opponent appear to roll a putt well? In or not, did he roll it well? 
 

That aside. 
 

Easy 3 footer early in the round to tie? Give it all day until it matters. Now I’m up 2 with 2? Nope. Good luck my untested opponent. 
 

There’s a mental strategy that is much more relevant than stats IMO. 

 

 

[Augster]

Nothing outside the grip unless I’m out of the hole. 
 

I hope my opponent gets angry having to hole short putts. Or even better, starts putting them without concentrating. 

[kiwigolf72]

15 minutes ago, Augster said:

Nothing outside the grip unless I’m out of the hole. 
 

I hope my opponent gets angry having to hole short putts. Or even better, starts putting them without concentrating. 

And only for a half, never a win

[SNIPERBBB]

If my opponent has to read the putt, he's putting unless I've decided that he's not putting all day till the end of the match.  Maybe I'll give something outside of the glorified tap-in range is if I am fishing for a good-good. Which I never offer.  I'll take the offer when offered unless my opponent is really fishing and I've got an easy putt. 

 

If you're not a good pressure putter, maybe conceding longer putts to get sympathy points from your opponent might be a good strategy if your opponent isnt a cold blooded killer with a putter.

 

In our mens league, we play a hybrid of match play and stroke play. Every hole you win is worth a point. If you win the total stroke score for 9 after handicaps are figured, you win 3 three points. So conceding putts can putt opponents out of their misery if you've got total in the bag and they're out of the hole. Actually we can concede the score at any point. Been a few HIO's given when players are though to be intentionally sandbagging.

[2bGood]

9 hours ago, Augster said:

Nothing outside the grip unless I’m out of the hole. 
 

I hope my opponent gets angry having to hole short putts. Or even better, starts putting them without concentrating. 

This is what makes this topic so interesting. I will admit on the internet, that I am the type of player that loves your strategy to play against. The more putts I make, the more I make putts.😉 I love making some short ones early to get some confidence going. Keeping the putter out of my hand early works better (on me) to beat me in the match.

 

Yes I know I can still 'practice' putts early in the match, but it is not the same for me mentally. 

[mshills]

12 hours ago, kiwigolf72 said:

Agreed, it can upset the opposition when you don't concede the putt, I have always expected to have to hole them all so doesn't worry me 

 

Exactly.  I'd even prefer someone never concede one of my putts.  I like to putt them and I love hearing the ball drop into the cup.  🙂 

[rogolf]

7 hours ago, mshills said:

 

Exactly.  I'd even prefer someone never concede one of my putts.  I like to putt them and I love hearing the ball drop into the cup.  🙂 

Which you are entitled to do even when they have been conceded.  Just keep knocking them in the hole.

[SNIPERBBB]

1 hour ago, rogolf said:

Which you are entitled to do even when they have been conceded.  Just keep knocking them in the hole.

Unless of course its a team match and your partner still has a putt.

[Pepperturbo]

Played over 10yrs of Interclub Match play events, some Regional events, even a few times privately funded mini tours where -2 qualifies.  The only putts I give are within 6".  I've seen too many people, including some good golfers, under the pressure of competition, miss 1-2' putts on undulated and fast greens.

[rogolf]

58 minutes ago, SNIPERBBB said:

Unless of course its a team match and your partner still has a putt.

That's only an issue if your putting out the conceded stroke would assist your partner.  However, to avoid the appearance of evil, putt it out after your partner has putted.

[ae1985]

I'd have guys in league get really mad at me for not giving them a 2 footer for birdie... and then they miss it. LMFAO.

[RoyalMustang]

I like the idea that if it would make me nervous, I expect my opponent to putt out. Same for him. 

 

2-footer straight on: probably not an issue if I am playing straight up against someone with a similar cap. Last week I had a match with a 3 cap; we both are very solid putters in that we rarely miss anything under 5 feet and can go several rounds without a 3-putt.

 

Anything under 2 feet was a gimmie, except for a tricky steep downhill break that I putted out. It had 4" of break; that's no gimmie and had he given it to me, I would have thought of it as a gift. Make me putt that: I was the one that ended up above the hole in a bad spot. 

 

You are right though: someone who is a 20 cap has a different rationale on putts that I would make most of the time.  

[karstens_ghost]

I have one strategy that seems to work really well. Often in our interclub, we have two matches going in the same 4. Someone might be 1-2 feet, and I intend on giving them the putt, but I won't do it right away. If the other game has putts, I let my opponent's marker sit there, agonisingly, for a few minutes.

 

Letting him think all the thoughts:

 

"He's not giving it?"

"Is it tricky?"

"Why is he such a dick?"

"If it's a gimme, it's easy; I have to putt."

"He doesn't have to give it, but I won't give any of his."

 

After all that swims around, and the other match has putted out, then I'll pick up the coin and hand it. If they say anything, I just say "I didn't want to interrupt the other game."

 

From then on, you get two results… they're always trying to pay attention to the other match more than they would, and they try to "return the favour" on gimmes. None of which has helped them make a putt. It doesn't phase some, but others they're a right mess after that move.

 

Oh, and if you're losing, always ask about kids or grandkids. If you're winning, ask them where they work.

Edited October 9, 2023 by karstens_ghost

[naval2006]

Too many short putts are missed in match play to go around conceding. 

[Llortamaisey]

Good to see the no gimmie gang is making a comeback. 

[Mudguard]

On 10/10/2023 at 9:17 AM, karstens_ghost said:

I have one strategy that seems to work really well. Often in our interclub, we have two matches going in the same 4. Someone might be 1-2 feet, and I intend on giving them the putt, but I won't do it right away. If the other game has putts, I let my opponent's marker sit there, agonisingly, for a few minutes.

 

After all that swims around, and the other match has putted out, then I'll pick up the coin and hand it. If they say anything, I just say "I didn't want to interrupt the other game."

 

 

I don't know about that. I have played someone who said on the first hole he doesn't concede putts, that he expected me to finish out. It seemed so weird, I did wonder why he would enter a matchplay event. The next hole was the closest I've ever been to a fight when he rolled his birdie putt to a foot, about two inches inside my par putt and tapped it in. I said he'd played out of turn and he would need to replay it. After my putt as I was away. I made, he missed. Any other match I've played those putts weren't ever attempted. I thought he was going to kill me. 

From then on it was just a farce. He'd roll it close enough that I would normally concede, but I wouldn't say anything. Then when he was about to pull the putter away I'd say, you know what, that's good. The faff was on short putts deciding who was actually away 😪

 

I'm pretty sure in the same match he carved a tee shot OB twice and I was down the middle. He spent an age looking for either and kept saying I should hit. And I'd say I'm not away...

[larrybud]

As far as requiring to putt a short putt, I figured, if it's so easy that it's a gimme, then what's the big deal about putting it? I go in with the mindset I'm putting everything in, and any concessions are a bonus.

[nitram]

20 minutes ago, larrybud said:

As far as requiring to putt a short putt, I figured, if it's so easy that it's a gimme, then what's the big deal about putting it? I go in with the mindset I'm putting everything in, and any concessions are a bonus.

EXACTLY, go into the match with zero expectation of concession and you will never be disappointed.

[SNIPERBBB]

Never ask for a concession or a good-good. Ye shall be shown no mercy if thou dost.

Edited October 12, 2023 by SNIPERBBB

[Mudguard]

6 hours ago, larrybud said:

As far as requiring to putt a short putt, I figured, if it's so easy that it's a gimme, then what's the big deal about putting it? I go in with the mindset I'm putting everything in, and any concessions are a bonus.

That's true, but then it's easy to get into a situation where you have flat ten footer for birdie and your opponent is flailing around in a greenside bunker after not getting it out. I mean it's conceivable I could four or five putt, but come on, scoop your ball up and lets go. 

Or we are just playing medal golf in a very strict hitting order. 

[Augster]

12 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

That's true, but then it's easy to get into a situation where you have flat ten footer for birdie and your opponent is flailing around in a greenside bunker after not getting it out. I mean it's conceivable I could four or five putt, but come on, scoop your ball up and lets go. 

Or we are just playing medal golf in a very strict hitting order. 

I believe we are talking about putts that matter. 

[Mudguard]

2 hours ago, Augster said:

I believe we are talking about putts that matter. 

That is true. But I'm sure we've all experienced the effect that stuff has on the rest of the match. Again. I'm not saying I expect to be given putts, but flat putts inside two feet I have no issue with. 

[larrybud]

13 hours ago, Mudguard said:

That is true. But I'm sure we've all experienced the effect that stuff has on the rest of the match. Again. I'm not saying I expect to be given putts, but flat putts inside two feet I have no issue with. 

 

I've seen guys miss 3" putts in a tournaments. Not saying I'm not giving concessions, I'm just talking about expecting concessions. If you get p!ssed that someone didn't give you a 15" putt, then he's already won. In some ways, if an opponent is making me putt everything, it's to my benefit, in that I'm not going to miss, and me not missing will put a lot of pressure on that player.

Edited October 13, 2023 by larrybud