Clubhouse Grille (*** NO LIV DISCUSSIONS ***) (*** NO POLITICS/RELIGION ***)

[Soloman1]

13 minutes ago, bscinstnct said:

 

Some would say at under $100, it’s more fairly valued and has wrung out this absurd valuation based on autonomous vehicles and scoffed at notion they will sell 20MM cars by 2030

 

They still have well over 50% of the EV market in the US and the growth should continue to be strong. Just not…strong enough to justify the stock price. 

 

 

 

 

 

yeah, valuation is nutty.

 

interesting take on strong market growth.

[Double Mocha Man]

8 hours ago, bladehunter said:

If that’s taken from a parasail.   🪂.   You’re in trouble !  

 

Pull up.  Pull up. Pull up. 

[Nard_S]

22 minutes ago, Soloman1 said:

 

i wish i could be more positive, but i’m worried we will be bailing it out for fancy king crab legs.

 

your wife may be right. 🙂

 

The valuation is LuLu Lemon crazy, Auto's get low valuations, been that way for decades. Tesla has a head start on EV but in autos, that don't really matter, the established when their backs are to wall, they can do good things. Or they can basically reverse engineer, see Hyundai, Tesla has huge liability on support and service and basic quality, something that the better players have ironed out, decades ago. It's a rust belt stock masking as a Silicon Valley start up. I might start playing the coming yo-yo of it's stock.

[dashanks]

1 hour ago, Jim53 said:

As a side  note, I really like jameson. Bought a giant bottle at Sam's club for $45 and it is just a nice drink. Off to Colombia tomorrow for a business meeting. I bought a powerball ticket so with my luck I will win and get kidnapped, the wife will say "just keep him"

Take the ticket with you.

[dashanks]

2 hours ago, braincramp52 said:

I know nothing about cell towers. So everything that guy was saying was pretty much bs ? A lot of it sounded like crap but I know nothing.

The only thing I know about cell service is that I'm paying way too much for it.  Verizon just jacked me up another $17 to $185 for 3 phones. God bless their hearts.

[braincramp52]

1 minute ago, dashanks said:

The only thing I know about cell service is that I'm paying way too much for it.  Verizon just jacked me up another $17 to $185 for 3 phones. God bless their hearts.

I know, I should go back to land line.😄

[dashanks]

1 minute ago, braincramp52 said:

I know, I should go back to land line.😄

I would do it in a second.  Don't think I'd miss all those calls from Potential Spam.

[braincramp52]

1 minute ago, dashanks said:

I would do it in a second.  Don't think I'd miss all those calls from Potential Spam.

That's one thing I do right. If they call me and their name isn't in my phone , they get no answer.

[dashanks]

Yeah, I don't answer either.  Would have been unthinkable not too long ago that I'd be spending over $400 a month on phone/cable/internet.  Not the vision of the future I had hoped for.  That's for sure.

[Soloman1]

i did the geezer thing a couple of years ago and did the consumer cellular 5g deal. 2 phones, one is a new one included in plan, unlimited data for $80/mo.

 

they all use each other’s networks, just like peering for the internet, so no problems.

 

my internet is $60 here + youtube tv for $65. $205 total is still too much, i think.

 

i watch sunday back nine masters and open each once per year. but the wife wears out the remote with movies.

Edited April 3 by Soloman1

[bscinstnct]

1 hour ago, Soloman1 said:

 

yeah, valuation is nutty.

 

interesting take on strong market growth.

 

Yes, that’s what makes a market 

 

Somebody buys TSLA at 400. If the stock gets to 100, that same person may dump it in disgust at a 75% loss to someone else who is happy to snack it up ; )

 

 

[BIG STU]

11 hours ago, Duct Tape said:

It wasn’t like you ate at Cracker Barrel and drank Gallo red while you were there !  😀😀😀

 

Note, I’m a Southerner (or was) and like Cracker Barrel. So no flames necessary. But it’s not French Laundry or Bouchon.  

You would feel different about Cracker Barrel if you went to the one in Murrells Inlet SC. Lousy service even pre pandemic. Half of the stuff on the menu they do not have. Last time we went in there was around 2019. They had been advertising the roast beef dips with Au Jus. They were out of Au Jus. My wife asked if they did not know how to make Au Jus? They said they were not allowed to do that. We had a pretty good sized group. I had a brainstorm Arby's up the street had roast beef French Dips. Most of us got up and paid for our beverages and went to Arby's just up the street. Never been back. I have heard similar stories from the locals ever since. I think the only reason that place is still open is because of the tourists and there is a Holiday Inn Express right beside it. In the last few years we have shunned the corporate chain restaurants. We eat at local owned and operated restaurants and of course my local Moose Club

Edited April 3 by BIG STU

[Soloman1]

52 minutes ago, bscinstnct said:

 

Yes, that’s what makes a market 

 

Somebody buys TSLA at 400. If the stock gets to 100, that same person may dump it in disgust at a 75% loss to someone else who is happy to snack it up ; )

 

 

 

ok. i was thinking more of ev market, not equities market. 🙂

 

i’m a completely unqualified person to talk about the stock market or individual stocks. i know nothing!

 

i think there are many speed bumps in the ev market. demand in europe going down, tesla being more of a minor player in china. byd selling 4x tesla and tesla being pushed out of the market. subsidies ending. hybrid production increasing.

 

but smaller tesla domestic competitors on the edge of collapse will keep him in the market.

 

musk has made spacex invaluable to the government with russia pulling out of the space station soon and heavy launch for surveillance satellites. he can leverage that for a bailout, loan or more subsidies.

 

lobbying is more fruitful and easier than building a well-run enterprise.

 

not sure about ev demand continuing high growth.

 

cheers

 

 

 

[BIG STU]

3 hours ago, aenemated said:

Ate at Cracker Barrel in Milwaukee last year when we were out on tour. Couldn't speak of the last time I'd been to one prior. 

 

Good grits. 

 

I'm capable of switching on the NC accent when it seems fortuitous. Amazing how much free food you can get when you drop a legit "Yes ma'am." 

From my travels I found out Northern women always liked my Southern accent. And for some reason the Canadian women old and young that come down here love it.

LOL a few years back a good looking Canadian lady said to me "You can tell you are not from up North" I told her in my best Southern gentleman accent. Contraire my dear I am from up North as in North Charlotte North Carolina.

[bscinstnct]

12 minutes ago, Soloman1 said:

 

ok. i was thinking more of ev market, not equities market. 🙂

 

i’m a completely unqualified person to talk about the stock market or individual stocks. i know nothing!

 

i think there are many speed bumps in the ev market. demand in europe going down, tesla being more of a minor player in china. byd selling 4x tesla and tesla being pushed out of the market. subsidies ending. hybrid production increasing.

 

but smaller tesla domestic competitors on the edge of collapse will keep him in the market.

 

musk has made spacex invaluable to the government with russia pulling out of the space station soon and heavy launch for surveillance satellites. he can leverage that for a bailout, loan or more subsidies.

 

lobbying is more fruitful and easier than building a well-run enterprise.

 

not sure about ev demand continuing high growth.

 

cheers

 

 

 

 

EVs? Be 25-30% of new cars sold in the US by 2030. Even higher internationally.

 

China already like 25% new cars sold are EVs

 

That train has left the station. Every auto maker is ramping and Tesla will settle into consistent 15-20% growth just on the back of it all and leading in some aspects of the market as well

[Soloman1]

3 minutes ago, BIG STU said:

Last time we went in there was around 99.

 

25 years is a long time!

 

all their grandkids are working there now.

 

try it again. you never know! 🙂

 

 

 

[bladehunter]

28 minutes ago, bscinstnct said:

 

EVs? Be 25-30% of new cars sold in the US by 2030. Even higher internationally.

 

China already like 25% new cars sold are EVs

 

That train has left the station. Every auto maker is ramping and Tesla will settle into consistent 15-20% growth just on the back of it all and leading in some aspects of the market as well

Nah. Ford has a stadium and rail yard packed with new lighting trucks they can’t give away.  The only ev selling are the cheap ones.  Hybrids are out pacing EV 3-1 at least.  
 

the only reason they’re selling internationally is the Chinese are making them so fast and cheap.  The Same  ones also have a very high rate of self combustion.  They list 21k fires a year…. And I’m sure that’s very conservative.  

Edited April 3 by bladehunter

[Hickory4ever]

1 minute ago, bladehunter said:

Nah. Ford has a stadium and rail yard packed with new lighting trucks they can’t give away.  The only ev selling are the cheap ones.  Hybrids are out pacing EV 3-1 at least.  
 

the only reason they’re selling internationally is the Chinese are making them so fast and cheap.  The Same  ones also have a very high rate of self combustion.  

In my neck of the woods, hybrids are more popular than EV’s and they can’t keep them in stock. I have had my Prius for over six and a half years and it was the best retirement choice, reliable and cheap to run. When it comes time to replace it, I will go hybrid again.

[Double Mocha Man]

54 minutes ago, Soloman1 said:

i’m a completely unqualified person to talk about the stock market or individual stocks. i know nothing!

 

Wow! We finally discovered your weak spot. Besides martinis on a Friday night.

[Soloman1]

35 minutes ago, bscinstnct said:

China already like 25% new cars sold are EVs

 

might be higher. the government set exhaust standards that will end ice’s and to prop up the domestic ev industry.

 

government is pushing foreign car companies out of china. tesla is still there because of their battery factories, but as those transition out of china, tesla will be forced out.

 

it’s always been that way. learn from the overseas companies, then  push them out.

[Soloman1]

7 minutes ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

Wow! We finally discovered your weak spot. Besides martinis on a Friday night.

 

i have more weaknesses than i can count!

[aenemated]

3 hours ago, Soloman1 said:

i know nothing!

 

That's what they WANT you to think.

 

[BIG STU]

6 hours ago, Soloman1 said:

 

25 years is a long time!

 

all their grandkids are working there now.

 

try it again. you never know! 🙂

 

 

 

Senior moment or slip of the finger--- I meant to say 2019. I did go back and edit it

[BIG STU]

6 hours ago, Hickory4ever said:

In my neck of the woods, hybrids are more popular than EV’s and they can’t keep them in stock. I have had my Prius for over six and a half years and it was the best retirement choice, reliable and cheap to run. When it comes time to replace it, I will go hybrid again.

I only know one guy on my end of the beach who has one. He has a Ford "Mustang" EV thing. I did see a Tesla passing through evidently last summer because it had out of state plates. On this end I have not seen any charging stations. Up around Dirty Myrtle I saw on the News there are a couple. I think they have several up by the college. In this neck of the woods the Golf Cart is king. With our laws here you can use them on some public roads of a 35 MPH Speed Limit or less and within 5 miles of your home. 

[mshills]

I am 1.5 weeks into EV ownership. Well, sort of. Leasership is more accurate. I’ve never leased a vehicle before, but this worked out differently. Did a 2y lease for three reasons. First, math does not lie and this case it made far more financial sense than buying. Second, in 2y a couple of other vehicles I’m very interested in will be available, so the timing works out. Third, I thought it would be an interesting test without a long term commit. 

 

I am a car guy and I’ve owned way more cars than I should have. I love cars, and I don’t see myself going back to ICE unless my usage changes significantly. The driving experience is that good.
 

I don’t think I’d choose to own an EV if I had no way to charge at home. The infrastructure is pretty uneven geographically and the convenience factor of just plugging up at night is part of the appeal. 

 

I read all kinds of angst about range and I do not really understand the fixation. Obviously my usage is different but I don’t need range for 500 mile road trips I never go on. Any longer than about 250 miles and Delta is ready when I am. I think I’ve made three or four drives over 300 miles in 20 years. 

[braincramp52]

8 minutes ago, mshills said:

I am 1.5 weeks into EV ownership. Well, sort of. Leasership is more accurate. I’ve never leased a vehicle before, but this worked out differently. Did a 2y lease for three reasons. First, math does not lie and this case it made far more financial sense than buying. Second, in 2y a couple of other vehicles I’m very interested in will be available, so the timing works out. Third, I thought it would be an interesting test without a long term commit. 

 

I am a car guy and I’ve owned way more cars than I should have. I love cars, and I don’t see myself going back to ICE unless my usage changes significantly. The driving experience is that good.
 

I don’t think I’d choose to own an EV if I had no way to charge at home. The infrastructure is pretty uneven geographically and the convenience factor of just plugging up at night is part of the appeal. 

 

I read all kinds of angst about range and I do not really understand the fixation. Obviously my usage is different but I don’t need range for 500 mile road trips I never go on. Any longer than about 250 miles and Delta is ready when I am. I think I’ve made three or four drives over 300 miles in 20 years. 

I see a few EV's around here but the fact is they just aren't practical because of the weather. I think I saw where at 20°F they lose 41% of their efficiency. I've seen it where we haven't gotten above 20 for weeks. We have 4 charging stations in the entire county. I do love my electric push cart though.😄

[nitram]

13 hours ago, Jim53 said:

As a side  note, I really like jameson. Bought a giant bottle at Sam's club for $45 and it is just a nice drink. Off to Colombia tomorrow for a business meeting. I bought a powerball ticket so with my luck I will win and get kidnapped, the wife will say "just keep him"

I’ve been a Jamey fan for the past 25 or so years. However, they have another in the Jameson line called “Black Barrel”. That has supplanted the original as my favorite. Give it a try Jim and tell me what you think.

[bscinstnct]

9 hours ago, bladehunter said:

Nah. Ford has a stadium and rail yard packed with new lighting trucks they can’t give away.  The only ev selling are the cheap ones.  Hybrids are out pacing EV 3-1 at least.  
 

the only reason they’re selling internationally is the Chinese are making them so fast and cheap.  The Same  ones also have a very high rate of self combustion.  They list 21k fires a year…. And I’m sure that’s very conservative.  

 

My understanding is that lithium prices have been actually plunging in part due to over mining. And could remain soft until 2025. This will keep prices for EVs competitive and that’s the key, price. 
 

Im not surprised Ford can’t sell ev trucks, lol, traditional pickup truck buyers doing strike me as the prime ev market. 
 

But the next gen of ev batteries, solid state, is being developed, Toyota is supposedly rolling out cars in a “couple of years” with solid state batteries with far more range and charge much faster. 
 

EVs are still in very early stages right now. Gotta keep that in mind. It’s just a question of when they are cheap enough with enough range/fast charge to be just as appealing to the average car buyer. 

Edited April 3 by bscinstnct

[Soloman1]

if acceleration and driving performance is a primary buying/leasing consideration, then i can appreciate the ev choice.

 

however, far more people think of cars as simply transportation. it’s evident in sales and a look at other cars on the road. like the difference between the majority of golfers and gear head wrx golfers.

 

cost is still a driver for the majority of people and the premium for ev’s is steep.

 

early adopters shook out the drawbacks of ev’s.

 

insurance rates are about 20% higher

 

repair costs so high that cars are scrapped as a total loss compared to ice cars with similar repairable damage

 

battery capacity reduces up to 30% after 4 years. 30% less range

 

high cost of replacement batteries, if replaceable at all. $8,000 - $30,000 for a new battery. that’s why a lease makes more sense. just drop off the keys when done.

 

solid state batteries are certainly better. non flammable, stable, higher energy density, good cold/hot performance and more charging cycles.

 

the idea that they will be cheaper is probably wishful thinking. different manufacturing process and the battery factories being built today are not going to be scraped. solid state will be artificially held back until those factories and supply chain have worn out.

 

i’m still respectfully unconvinced that the average person is willing to pay the premium for an ev.

 

driving environmental guilt down to the consumer by simply looking at the tailpipe doesn’t change anything overall.

 

and electricity still isn’t growing on trees.

 

for those with the financial means and preference, sure. but $1,400 + per month for a car? that’s a hard pill to swallow for what, 80% of the country?

 

---

 

i gotta go hustle, uh, play some golf today to pay some bills. 🙂

 

Edited April 3 by Soloman1

[BIG STU]

1 hour ago, mshills said:

I am 1.5 weeks into EV ownership. Well, sort of. Leasership is more accurate. I’ve never leased a vehicle before, but this worked out differently. Did a 2y lease for three reasons. First, math does not lie and this case it made far more financial sense than buying. Second, in 2y a couple of other vehicles I’m very interested in will be available, so the timing works out. Third, I thought it would be an interesting test without a long term commit. 

 

I am a car guy and I’ve owned way more cars than I should have. I love cars, and I don’t see myself going back to ICE unless my usage changes significantly. The driving experience is that good.
 

I don’t think I’d choose to own an EV if I had no way to charge at home. The infrastructure is pretty uneven geographically and the convenience factor of just plugging up at night is part of the appeal. 

 

I read all kinds of angst about range and I do not really understand the fixation. Obviously my usage is different but I don’t need range for 500 mile road trips I never go on. Any longer than about 250 miles and Delta is ready when I am. I think I’ve made three or four drives over 300 miles in 20 years. 

I do not drive far any more. I drove trucks on and off all my life so I have rode enough. Now I have been retired 4 years now and for now I am content to stay home. Most of my "trips" are within a 5 or 6 mile radius of the house. If I play golf like 6 times a week and we go out to eat maybe twice and me going to church I might put 50 miles a week on my car. Now for us the initial price of a new EV is not justifiable. I may get another golf cart this summer. Everywhere we generally go is within the 5 mile radius specified by law. Really the only exception is my Doc who is 8 miles away. Usually SOP for me is to fill up once a month. But if gas prices are inching up I may top off early. With our way of doing things we can get along fine with older vehicles. 

Edited April 3 by BIG STU