What are the odds a 17 HC shoots 5 over in a tournament?

[DavePelz4]

Have shared this story before about a guy I had played with for 15 years. Weekend trip...4 rounds in Lake Geneva...12 guys. In probably 50+ rounds playing with him, he broke triple digits maybe 5 times, never 90. During the 4 rounds of our weekend, he broke 90 3 times and shot a low of 79. With his handicap, he blew away the field. It was the proverbial catching lightening in a bottle and still the most amazing thing I've seen on a golf course.

 

After the weekend he went back to his crappy way of playing and returned to not breaking 100.

 

Maybe the courses you played that weekend just suited his eye?

 

We played the exact same course the year before and I don't think he broke 105 in any round. His putting that weekend was also lights out. BTW, never liked the guy but respected the amazing weekend he had.

[datrain711]

I'm about a 15 and the best I've ever done is 11 over (83) and it took everything breaking my way (obviously). In my mind, there is no possible way I could have been 6 shots better that day. And this wasn't even a tournament.

[SurfDuffer]

This thread demonstrates why I don't participate in handicap golf. The handicap system is fairly worthless because human nature. The game is much more enjoyable when you simply play against the course and keep other human beings out of it.

 

PS: When I was keeping an accurate handicap my best tournament round was only a differential that was 2 points better than my index. I also never shot a tournament round that would appear as the lowest differential round of my 20 recent scores. Funny how that works.

[Splitter]

I was going to say ZERO, but apparently it 37000-1

 

It goes up signifigantly if you have help:

 

 

[jusme]

Sounds simply like cheating - nothing more to it, but it can be done as a one off for high handicappers. Playing golf 5 years or so and once shot a 79 (par 69) of 20 handicap. Not sniffed anything close since or before. Did get cut over 3 strokes as a result. As a one of it's indeed possible, but repetitively it's pure and simple cheating

[Ferguson]

This thread demonstrates why I don't participate in handicap golf. The handicap system is fairly worthless because human nature. The game is much more enjoyable when you simply play against the course and keep other human beings out of it.

 

PS: When I was keeping an accurate handicap my best tournament round was only a differential that was 2 points better than my index.

 

Disagree and Agree.

 

The HC system is great system for honest people, honest play and honest scoring.

Human beings are unfortunately everywhere. Get used to them. Some are good.

[Pepperturbo]

I've encountered guys that were really good in earlier years, but not so today. Every once-in-awhile they have a lucid, almost amazing, round. Its as if every thing they knew came back to him, a one round, posting a great score, when normally he's carding 90+. The thing about guys like that, they tend not to talk about how good they use to be, if for no other reason, they still wish and hope the game would come back, and it bothers them.

 

Also play with a guy that has a great driver / 3wd game, but hands of lead around the green. He's setting short of Par 5 green in 2, easy up and own birdie, and walks off with a 6-8; next to the green on a Par 4 and takes 6-7. Amazing...its not on purpose either, though I tease him about padding his HC.

 

In both cases, I've known these guys for years... Also know, there are others like them so don't always a**-ume if a guys scores appear odd, that doesn't mean they are cheating.

[Pepperturbo]

This thread demonstrates why I don't participate in handicap golf. The handicap system is fairly worthless because human nature. The game is much more enjoyable when you simply play against the course and keep other human beings out of it.

 

PS: When I was keeping an accurate handicap my best tournament round was only a differential that was 2 points better than my index. I also never shot a tournament round that would appear as the lowest differential round of my 20 recent scores. Funny how that works.

 

Ghin / HC system has merit, for most golfers that know one another. Its unknown people we come in contact with during tournaments that need to prove themselves but can't, so they cheat.

 

But for the most part, least in my golf world, most do not cheat. Kinda like someone walking into a 7-11 and having a robber walks in after.. sh** happens because sleaze balls exist in all shapes an sizes. Its a percentage game as to encountering them. My differential is 1-2 as well. I am rather consistent. Last four round at different courses, playing different length tees, scores ended the same. :beach:

[Ferguson]

Sandbaggers, how pathetic - wanting that trophy, or that $50 pro shop voucher. Doesn't surprise me, though. The guy probably has a swollen prostate, cheats on his taxes, beats his dog and has a bad home life.

[DeadLetterOffice]

I sent that chart to the tournament director. 37,000 to 1 odds. Pft. I'm sure I'm not the only guy grumbling.

 

I fluctuate between 14 and 16. When I was at 14 I shot my best round ever, non tournament 81. That's only 4 strokes below my HC. Odds on that according to that chart are 87 to one. Well, I've played far more than 87 rounds. So that's well within reason. I've shot 83 twice. If I was at 15 when I shot those that's only 43 to 1.

 

I have yet to have a day when things just "go my way" and I shoot 75 in a tournament. Much less when my HC was at 17. I haven't been a 17 since I started.

 

Anyways, I try to tell myself I don't play in the club tournaments to win. That I play for fun. But part of the fun is thinking that I could shoot a rare, (but reasonable considering my history and posted scores) 82 and be in the top 10 every once in a blue moon. My best tournament score was 86 so far. I felt so good after that round. I was super proud of myself for keeping my head together and coming in under 90 on a long course.

 

But when I see BS like that it pretty much just bums me out.

[augustgolf]

Most are cheaters and they know it, BUT i have seen a few legit guys do stuff like that.

 

One guy was a 4 or 5 cap and got the $hanks real bad from about 2 years. He went up to and 18+. But he would have little spurts where $hank free games would happen and he would shoot is good old mid/low 70's. He was a classy guy though and would not go into events or bet given how wild his scoring could be.

 

if you are an 18 that used to be low capper these things happen. But NEVER if you are a solid 18.

 

ACTUALLY....true story.

 

I took a group of golfers from my club to a pro-am: a 25, a 19, and a 12.

 

The 19 thinned his 3rd shot on a par 5 (you guessed it...it went in for a 3, net 1)

 

A few holes later, short par 4....he drove the front fringe of the green, the pin is at least 70' at the back of the green.....

 

Walloped his putt, and you guessed it again....hits the pin and drops for a 2....net 1.

 

Now, I played with these guys for over 2 years, and recorded all their scores when they played on their home course, where I was Asst Pro, and they were as honest as the day is long.

 

Forget the fact that the 19...the guy with 2 net 1's.....shot about about 95 that day....including his 2 miracle shots....we were called cheats and liars for the rest of the year.

 

So....it does happen, and I happened to be a witness to it that day.

 

Imagine...the 2 birdies that I shot on those 2 holes didn't even count towards our team score!

 

but....it doesn't happen week in and week out

[Singapore Joe]

The legit dangerous 16 cappers are the guys that shoot 88 with 5 blow up holes. They are awesome as a 2 man partner

 

We have a guy like this at my club. 270 off the tee. Can shoot 79 or 99. He struggles w the shanks on and off

 

We also have a 22, that was a +2 way back 33 years ago (scholarship to Texas). He can shoot 81 or 111 .. no joke. He has the full swing yips

I am that 16 capper. Haven't played much recently so the game is in a strange state.

 

My HC history of twenty rounds has handicapping values (of which you average the seven best out of twenty and multiply by 0.93) ranging from below 11 to above 25. All handicapping in Australia is based on stableford scores so my typical score card has five or six zeros but lots of threes and fours. Hardly any ones. All zeros come from shanking the tee shot into the woods.

 

It's really embarrassing, actually. Frustrating, too, but that's not relevant to this thread. In my last round, the driver was misbehaving exceptionally badly and I scored 23 stableford points (which gives me something like 25 or 26 handicapping value) but I probably won the nearest to the pin competition. I can feel all those strange looks at my back. There's no more than maybe $5 in the nearest to the pin competition but still that sounds just a bit too weird.

 

I think I finally figured out the driving issues so let's see for the coming weekend. Maybe I can keep the ball in play which means scoring quite low and getting more eyes in my back ;)

[Medic]

I am pretty sure, based on personal experiences (note that it is plural) that it is far more likely for a 7 or 8 handicap to shoot 15 over.

 

But having said that a friend of mine always shoots around 100. Always.

 

Low and behold this past league outing he had the round of his life. He shot an 89. And, because of his handicap, he took home 1st. He may not ever win again but seeing the look on his face as it became official - priceless. I have known him for about 5 years and haven't ever seen him break 90. So here is this solid 25 handicapper who shoots about 10 or so under his cap. (Sorry, not doing math here - been a LONG day) I honestly felt great for him. He's a nice guy, he isn't a bagger, and he shot the round of his life.

 

So....

 

If this guy seems to always peak during rounds that count - he is bagging. If not he's just getting lucky and you should jump at the chance to buy him a round and share a smile over his feat.

 

Just my take on it.

[DeadLetterOffice]

Most are cheaters and they know it, BUT i have seen a few legit guys do stuff like that.

 

One guy was a 4 or 5 cap and got the $hanks real bad from about 2 years. He went up to and 18+. But he would have little spurts where $hank free games would happen and he would shoot is good old mid/low 70's. He was a classy guy though and would not go into events or bet given how wild his scoring could be.

 

if you are an 18 that used to be low capper these things happen. But NEVER if you are a solid 18.

 

ACTUALLY....true story.

 

I took a group of golfers from my club to a pro-am: a 25, a 19, and a 12.

 

The 19 thinned his 3rd shot on a par 5 (you guessed it...it went in for a 3, net 1)

 

A few holes later, short par 4....he drove the front fringe of the green, the pin is at least 70' at the back of the green.....

 

Walloped his putt, and you guessed it again....hits the pin and drops for a 2....net 1.

 

Now, I played with these guys for over 2 years, and recorded all their scores when they played on their home course, where I was Asst Pro, and they were as honest as the day is long.

 

Forget the fact that the 19...the guy with 2 net 1's.....shot about about 95 that day....including his 2 miracle shots....we were called cheats and liars for the rest of the year.

 

So....it does happen, and I happened to be a witness to it that day.

 

Imagine...the 2 birdies that I shot on those 2 holes didn't even count towards our team score!

 

but....it doesn't happen week in and week out

 

I hear you. But you say he still shot a 95.

 

People don't shoot 5 over by accident. Just my 2 cents. Takes more than a couple wildly lucky shots to shoot 5 over. In tournament play no less.

[DeadLetterOffice]

I am pretty sure, based on personal experiences (note that it is plural) that it is far more likely for a 7 or 8 handicap to shoot 15 over.

 

But having said that a friend of mine always shoots around 100. Always.

 

Low and behold this past league outing he had the round of his life. He shot an 89. And, because of his handicap, he took home 1st. He may not ever win again but seeing the look on his face as it became official - priceless. I have known him for about 5 years and haven't ever seen him break 90. So here is this solid 25 handicapper who shoots about 10 or so under his cap. (Sorry, not doing math here - been a LONG day) I honestly felt great for him. He's a nice guy, he isn't a bagger, and he shot the round of his life.

 

So....

 

If this guy seems to always peak during rounds that count - he is bagging. If not he's just getting lucky and you should jump at the chance to buy him a round and share a smile over his feat.

 

Just my take on it.

 

I think it's pretty much universally understood that anyone who plays and has a high handcap can shoot in the vicinity of 90 on a random day when their slices don't go behind trees, their thin shots actually roll out 200 years, they don't completely chunk one all day, avoid losing a ball or an OB and make 1 or 2 putts.

 

But to shoot 5 over takes more than luck.

 

Every coach I have ever worked with has told me it's far easier to take a 25 to 15 than it is to take a 10 to a 5. The places to shave strokes becomes narrower and narrower.

[Medic]

I am pretty sure, based on personal experiences (note that it is plural) that it is far more likely for a 7 or 8 handicap to shoot 15 over.

 

But having said that a friend of mine always shoots around 100. Always.

 

Low and behold this past league outing he had the round of his life. He shot an 89. And, because of his handicap, he took home 1st. He may not ever win again but seeing the look on his face as it became official - priceless. I have known him for about 5 years and haven't ever seen him break 90. So here is this solid 25 handicapper who shoots about 10 or so under his cap. (Sorry, not doing math here - been a LONG day) I honestly felt great for him. He's a nice guy, he isn't a bagger, and he shot the round of his life.

 

So....

 

If this guy seems to always peak during rounds that count - he is bagging. If not he's just getting lucky and you should jump at the chance to buy him a round and share a smile over his feat.

 

Just my take on it.

 

I think it's pretty much universally understood that anyone who plays and has a high handcap can shoot in the vicinity of 90 on a random day when their slices don't go behind trees, their thin shots actually roll out 200 years, they don't completely chunk one all day, avoid losing a ball or an OB and make 1 or 2 putts.

 

But to shoot 5 over takes more than luck.

 

Every coach I have ever worked with has told me it's far easier to take a 25 to 15 than it is to take a 10 to a 5. The places to shave strokes becomes narrower and narrower.

 

All very true. And odds are the OP's situation involves a bagger.

 

But the wonderful thing about this game is that anything literally is possible. I know two REALLY high handicappers who have made aces. The only one I have made was on a temp green at an Exec.

[Micjhenr]

To maintain a 17-18 handicap you basically have to shoot all 90s or worse. 77 seems impossible. 77 he is probably close to a single digit.

[DeadLetterOffice]

To maintain a 17-18 handicap you basically have to shoot all 90s or worse. 77 seems impossible. 77 he is probably close to a single digit.

 

To be within plausible reason I would say a 12 and had a freak day. 17 is a miracle.

 

Even a 10 HC, to shoot a 77 in a tournament is 276 to 1 odds.

[Micjhenr]

To maintain a 17-18 handicap you basically have to shoot all 90s or worse. 77 seems impossible. 77 he is probably close to a single digit.

 

To be within plausible reason I would say a 12 and had a freak day. 17 is a miracle.

 

Even a 10 HC, to shoot a 77 in a tournament is 276 to 1 odds.

 

 

Yeah, I should of said at minimum close to a single digit.

[Sean2]

I don't get the whole sandbagging thing. First, golf is a game of integrity and honor...the sandbagger has none. Second, a sandbagger KNOWS he didn't win...he knows he cheated...so what does he really get out of it? Whatever he gets, he knows he didn't earn it.

 

Sandbaggers should be immediately suspended from the club, and from all remaining tournaments for the rest of the season. And their names put on a bulletin board stating that they sandbagged.

 

They are the worse of worst. "People" like that ruin playing in tournaments for everyone.

[Bonneville85308]

In the last member-guest tournament I played in before swearing off these tournaments forever, my partner and I played against a team with a 18-handicap player who shot 1-over for 9 holes. When I checked out his handicap on ghin.com after the match, pretty much all of his posted rounds were "away" rounds in the 90s. Total 'bagger. The chance of him shooting one over for 9 in a tournament with considerable money on the line and a five hour pace on a fairly difficult course with the fastest green speed of the year has to be a billion to one. The tournament did later enact a rule saying the committee has the right to adjust someone's handicap for "exceptional performance " after day 1 of the tournament. But Joe Sandbagger can just hack it up on day 1 and then go low on day 2.

[MtlJeff]

I've encountered guys that were really good in earlier years, but not so today. Every once-in-awhile they have a lucid, almost amazing, round. Its as if every thing they knew came back to him, a one round, posting a great score, when normally he's carding 90+. The thing about guys like that, they tend not to talk about how good they use to be, if for no other reason, they still wish and hope the game would come back, and it bothers them.

 

Also play with a guy that has a great driver / 3wd game, but hands of lead around the green. He's setting short of Par 5 green in 2, easy up and own birdie, and walks off with a 6-8; next to the green on a Par 4 and takes 6-7. Amazing...its not on purpose either, though I tease him about padding his HC.

 

In both cases, I've known these guys for years... Also know, there are others like them so don't always a**-ume if a guys scores appear odd, that doesn't mean they are cheating.

 

Agreed there are guys out there like that

 

One time I played as a 3rd just for fun in a match between a friend of mine and another guy in one of our clubs handicapped match play tournaments. They needed someone to fill out the group since it was at a busy time in the schedule. My friend is a former scratch player who quit golf for a number of years than took it up again but only played 20-30 rounds a year and didn't practice. He was a legit 12 index at the time (he was a scratch at one point like i said, but a decade earlier) and shot 1-over through 14-15 holes to win the match and finished with a 74. It was the best round i saw him play in his "new golf life". But he still had a smooth swing and looked the part. The guy he was playing against called him every name in the book after the round, cheater this, sandbagger that....etc

 

I mean i played with the guy the next day and he shot 88 or something. It happens....

 

it's rare, but as they say, given enough time the improbable becomes probable

[b.mattay]

Well it's not very likely but weird things happen. I have heard of a 9 handicap shooting 69 and an 8 handicap being -6 through nine holes. I have played with both these guys and the handicaps are legitimate.

[Loki]

I don't get the whole sandbagging thing. First, golf is a game of integrity and honor...the sandbagger has none. Second, a sandbagger KNOWS he didn't win...he knows he cheated...so what does he really get out of it? Whatever he gets, he knows he didn't earn it.

 

Sandbaggers should be immediately suspended from the club, and from all remaining tournaments for the rest of the season. And their names put on a bulletin board stating that they sandbagged.

 

They are the worse of worst. "People" like that ruin playing in tournaments for everyone.

 

With all due respect: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Never happen at a $10g/year club.

 

Having said that...I agree 100%, it WILL NEVER happen.

[Loki]

Last year there was a guy in the Chicago Golfweek Amateur Tour, B flight, 9 to 13 hcp, that shot a legit 69, 3 under. Shot 81 the day before. I played later with a guy that was in said group. The guy had the luckiest round he'd ever seen. Never missed a putt, and had a couple chip ins.

 

Sandbaggers have a definite pattern, it all depends on if someone has the balls to report them, enough balls and more importantly, respect of the organization to stand up and say, "Enough." Not many do.

[Shilgy]

I will only say that in all fairness the 37,000-1 odds does mean it happens. Does not mean it's impossible.

In our Saturday game I recently shoot a 69 on a six cap. With the rating essentially at even par that was 9 under cap. Approximately a 30,000-1 occurrence. I have been low as a +1. For me it just means I'm still comfortable shooting a low score. Unfortunately it does not happen often anymore.

[golfer07840]

I will only say that in all fairness the 37,000-1 odds does mean it happens. Does not mean it's impossible.

In our Saturday game I recently shoot a 69 on a six cap. With the rating essentially at even par that was 9 under cap. Approximately a 30,000-1 occurrence. I have been low as a +1. For me it just means I'm still comfortable shooting a low score. Unfortunately it does not happen often anymore.

But that's different than sandbagging. At one point shooting that score wasn't a surprise. I have a friend who was a 4, and regressed back to a 12.(Bad case of short game shanks, very sad story), But every once in awhile the 4 comes out and he shoots 74.

 

I'm a 17, but shaved a bit last yr, so I'd like to think I'm a 17 who is trending south, which means my 10 best differentials this yr should be better than last. But while I improve, there is a part of me that wonders, the first time I shoot say 84, will I be accused of sand bagging?

[thug the bunny]

That's why I just don't play in tournaments. In the last few years, I've really enjoyed playing solo. No 5-6 hour rounds, playing at off times, when I want to play, not when someone else does.

 

I've become a misanthropic old man!

 

I'm with you wrigs. These days I just show up and get out there paired or not. Sometimes I'll get a text from a bud and join a group. But I don't play money games with the local wolfpack anymore - too much griping and drama, usually about rules/etiquette or numbers of strokes given. This is the same pack that is the home of the club champ sandbaggers.

[mneumann]

Had to read through to make sure I had everyone beat. We had a 17.5 index shoot 71 2 weeks ago on a 69.7/124. Admittedly an easy course but really?

 

Usually our tourneys are flighted so wouldn't have to worry as a single digit, but this was a 2 best balls of 4 tourney so everyone was against each other.

 

And the best part? His team lost a card off for first at -27.

 

Going forward my buddies and I have sworn off any tourney without a gross component.

[fowlerscousin]

sucks. 2 options. get good enough to beat them, or quit the club

How do you get "good enough" to beat somebody shooting net 59s on a regular basis?

 

shoot net 53's lol