Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[RobotDoctor]

> @cdnglf said:

> > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > @Shilgy said:

> > > They can play for bogey on 5. Heck they can play for 12 bogeys! Any scratch with his salt can break 85 if that is his goal. If he tries to shoot 65 he might struggle but decent course management breaks 85.

> >

> >

> > Ok, keep in mind one of the best players in the game and eventual 2019 winner played bogey for all 4 rounds. So you're telling me a scratch can be as good as Tiger Woods on this hole? I'm not buying it.

>

>

>

>

> It is almost as if you have no statistics training at all.

 

I know this, Magnolia played to 4.336 this year. That means, by statistics, the scratch golfer has a 1 on 4 chance of scoring par on the hole. However, the scratch only has one chance to play the hole. What is the probability to score par? Just over 25%. I would say the statistics do not favor the player scoring par.

[cdnglf]

> @RobotDoctor said:

> > @cdnglf said:

> > > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > > @Shilgy said:

> > > > They can play for bogey on 5. Heck they can play for 12 bogeys! Any scratch with his salt can break 85 if that is his goal. If he tries to shoot 65 he might struggle but decent course management breaks 85.

> > >

> > >

> > > Ok, keep in mind one of the best players in the game and eventual 2019 winner played bogey for all 4 rounds. So you're telling me a scratch can be as good as Tiger Woods on this hole? I'm not buying it.

> >

> >

> >

> >

> > It is almost as if you have no statistics training at all.

>

> I know this, Magnolia played to 4.336 this year. That means, by statistics, the scratch golfer has a 1 on 4 chance of scoring par on the hole. However, the scratch only has one chance to play the hole. What is the probability to score par? Just over 25%. I would say the statistics do not favor the player scoring par.

 

This doesn't make sense.

[golfandfishing]

> @RobotDoctor said:

> > @golfandfishing said:

> > “Keep in mind ANGC is 7,600.”

> >

> > Keep in mind this is incorrect.

>

> You're right. Officially 7,475. Hole #5 is listed at 495 but one day played at 505. Can we agree the course can be lengthened to 7,500?

 

Well sure, but only if we can agree that other holes are set up shorter than the scorecard yardage also and say it can be/is shortened to less than 7,475 just the same as it can be stretched to 7,500.

 

[RobotDoctor]

> @cdnglf said:

> > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > @cdnglf said:

> > > > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > > > @Shilgy said:

> > > > > They can play for bogey on 5. Heck they can play for 12 bogeys! Any scratch with his salt can break 85 if that is his goal. If he tries to shoot 65 he might struggle but decent course management breaks 85.

> > > >

> > > >

> > > > Ok, keep in mind one of the best players in the game and eventual 2019 winner played bogey for all 4 rounds. So you're telling me a scratch can be as good as Tiger Woods on this hole? I'm not buying it.

> > >

> > >

> > >

> > >

> > > It is almost as if you have no statistics training at all.

> >

> > I know this, Magnolia played to 4.336 this year. That means, by statistics, the scratch golfer has a 1 on 4 chance of scoring par on the hole. However, the scratch only has one chance to play the hole. What is the probability to score par? Just over 25%. I would say the statistics do not favor the player scoring par.

>

> This doesn't make sense.

 

You're correct. My calculation is off. The scratch would have to score par once and bogey the hole twice in three rounds to match the scoring average. My comment was based on Tiger scoring 5 in his 4 rounds. His aggregate was 5, more than a half shot over the scoring average. One bogey and 2 pars over three rounds is an aggregate of 4.33. The scoring average was 4.336. That includes professionals and a few amateurs who are better than scratch. And some of us believe a scratch can hang with these players on this hole? I'm just sampling this hole and this hole only. My gut tells me this is a bogey hole at best for the scratch but I'd bet a double bogey under the original criteria.

[Shilgy]

> @RobotDoctor said:

> > @cdnglf said:

> > > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > > @Shilgy said:

> > > > They can play for bogey on 5. Heck they can play for 12 bogeys! Any scratch with his salt can break 85 if that is his goal. If he tries to shoot 65 he might struggle but decent course management breaks 85.

> > >

> > >

> > > Ok, keep in mind one of the best players in the game and eventual 2019 winner played bogey for all 4 rounds. So you're telling me a scratch can be as good as Tiger Woods on this hole? I'm not buying it.

> >

> >

> >

> >

> > It is almost as if you have no statistics training at all.

>

> I know this, Magnolia played to 4.336 this year. That means, by statistics, the scratch golfer has a 1 on 4 chance of scoring par on the hole. However, the scratch only has one chance to play the hole. What is the probability to score par? Just over 25%. I would say the statistics do not favor the player scoring par.

 

He didn't need to par number 5. He really only needs six pars. The bet is not whether he can par the most difficult holes.

Can he par 2? 3? 8? 13? 15? Do that and one other past and bogey the rest.

[RobotDoctor]

> @Shilgy said:

> > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > @cdnglf said:

> > > > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > > > @Shilgy said:

> > > > > They can play for bogey on 5. Heck they can play for 12 bogeys! Any scratch with his salt can break 85 if that is his goal. If he tries to shoot 65 he might struggle but decent course management breaks 85.

> > > >

> > > >

> > > > Ok, keep in mind one of the best players in the game and eventual 2019 winner played bogey for all 4 rounds. So you're telling me a scratch can be as good as Tiger Woods on this hole? I'm not buying it.

> > >

> > >

> > >

> > >

> > > It is almost as if you have no statistics training at all.

> >

> > I know this, Magnolia played to 4.336 this year. That means, by statistics, the scratch golfer has a 1 on 4 chance of scoring par on the hole. However, the scratch only has one chance to play the hole. What is the probability to score par? Just over 25%. I would say the statistics do not favor the player scoring par.

>

> He didn't need to par number 5. He really only needs six pars. The bet is not whether he can par the most difficult holes.

> Can he par 2? 3? 8? 13? 15? Do that and one other past and bogey the rest.

 

I can agree with this if we believe a double bogey isn't going to happen. I'm a firm believer that the scratch doesn't have at least one or more doubles (or higher) on their card. Now keep in mind, what if the scratch has a putt on 9 like Woods' Sunday putt. Does anyone think the scratch would two putt that. I'm betting no and I'm also betting the scratch putts it off the green. Putt it off the green and it's a certain double bogey. Now add my hypothetical hole 5 and he's 4 over on two holes. Any self doubt creeping in or is the scratch a robot? That said there's no reason to believe the scratch hits it to the back of the green. Keep in mind, a slightly downhill lie, mid to short iron, to an elevated 3 tier green with a severe false front that we all knows can kill a chance to win a Masters title. Ask Greg Norman. Tall order to pull off a shot to the correct tier without too much spin playing under Sunday Tournament conditions never playing the course before. Don't you think?

 

Going further, what are the potential disaster holes? I'd say potentially 1, 4, 5, possibly 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14 (insane green complex), maybe 16 if they have the case of hitting left.

[golfandfishing]

This could go on forever, the question is basically like asking “how long is a piece of rope?” Of course a scratch could shoot 85 or better under the conditions mentioned, and of course a scratch could post well over 85 in the circumstances as well. Pick one scratch and send him out there; maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t. But take 100 scratch golfers and put them out there - of course there will be plenty of scores under 85.

[RobotDoctor]

> @golfandfishing said:

> > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > @golfandfishing said:

> > > “Keep in mind ANGC is 7,600.”

> > >

> > > Keep in mind this is incorrect.

> >

> > You're right. Officially 7,475. Hole #5 is listed at 495 but one day played at 505. Can we agree the course can be lengthened to 7,500?

>

> Well sure, but only if we can agree that other holes are set up shorter than the scorecard yardage also and say it can be/is shortened to less than 7,475 just the same as it can be stretched to 7,500.

>

 

I suppose someone could look at the Sunday yardages and post them. I might do that later if I have some time. Remember, we're talking only Sunday tournament conditions.

[widow-maker]

> @RobotDoctor said:

> > @Shilgy said:

> > > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > > @cdnglf said:

> > > > > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > > > > @Shilgy said:

> > > > > > They can play for bogey on 5. Heck they can play for 12 bogeys! Any scratch with his salt can break 85 if that is his goal. If he tries to shoot 65 he might struggle but decent course management breaks 85.

> > > > >

> > > > >

> > > > > Ok, keep in mind one of the best players in the game and eventual 2019 winner played bogey for all 4 rounds. So you're telling me a scratch can be as good as Tiger Woods on this hole? I'm not buying it.

> > > >

> > > >

> > > >

> > > >

> > > > It is almost as if you have no statistics training at all.

> > >

> > > I know this, Magnolia played to 4.336 this year. That means, by statistics, the scratch golfer has a 1 on 4 chance of scoring par on the hole. However, the scratch only has one chance to play the hole. What is the probability to score par? Just over 25%. I would say the statistics do not favor the player scoring par.

> >

> > He didn't need to par number 5. He really only needs six pars. The bet is not whether he can par the most difficult holes.

> > Can he par 2? 3? 8? 13? 15? Do that and one other past and bogey the rest.

>

> I can agree with this if we believe a double bogey isn't going to happen. I'm a firm believer that the scratch doesn't have at least one or more doubles (or higher) on their card. Now keep in mind, what if the scratch has a putt on 9 like Woods' Sunday putt. Does anyone think the scratch would two putt that. I'm betting no and I'm also betting the scratch putts it off the green. Putt it off the green and it's a certain double bogey. Now add my hypothetical hole 5 and he's 4 over on two holes. Any self doubt creeping in or is the scratch a robot? That said there's no reason to believe the scratch hits it to the back of the green. Keep in mind, a slightly downhill lie, mid to short iron, to an elevated 3 tier green with a severe false front that we all knows can kill a chance to win a Masters title. Ask Greg Norman. Tall order to pull off a shot to the correct tier without too much spin playing under Sunday Tournament conditions never playing the course before. Don't you think?

>

> Going further, what are the potential disaster holes? I'd say potentially 1, 4, 5, possibly 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14 (insane green complex), maybe 16 if they have the case of hitting left.

 

What if the scratch makes 3 or 4 birdies in his round? Makes a couple of longish putts and knocks a couple with 4 feet of the hole. You don't know what's going to happen in a round of golf.

 

If you selected one scratch and had him play under the OP's conditions, odds are he wouldn't break 85. If you took 100 scratches and had them all play on the same day, the odds are astronomical that one or more of them would break 85. You'd be crazy to bet that all 100 would fail to break 85.

[RobotDoctor]

> @widow-maker said:

> > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > @Shilgy said:

> > > > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > > > @cdnglf said:

> > > > > > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > > > > > @Shilgy said:

> > > > > > > They can play for bogey on 5. Heck they can play for 12 bogeys! Any scratch with his salt can break 85 if that is his goal. If he tries to shoot 65 he might struggle but decent course management breaks 85.

> > > > > >

> > > > > >

> > > > > > Ok, keep in mind one of the best players in the game and eventual 2019 winner played bogey for all 4 rounds. So you're telling me a scratch can be as good as Tiger Woods on this hole? I'm not buying it.

> > > > >

> > > > >

> > > > >

> > > > >

> > > > > It is almost as if you have no statistics training at all.

> > > >

> > > > I know this, Magnolia played to 4.336 this year. That means, by statistics, the scratch golfer has a 1 on 4 chance of scoring par on the hole. However, the scratch only has one chance to play the hole. What is the probability to score par? Just over 25%. I would say the statistics do not favor the player scoring par.

> > >

> > > He didn't need to par number 5. He really only needs six pars. The bet is not whether he can par the most difficult holes.

> > > Can he par 2? 3? 8? 13? 15? Do that and one other past and bogey the rest.

> >

> > I can agree with this if we believe a double bogey isn't going to happen. I'm a firm believer that the scratch doesn't have at least one or more doubles (or higher) on their card. Now keep in mind, what if the scratch has a putt on 9 like Woods' Sunday putt. Does anyone think the scratch would two putt that. I'm betting no and I'm also betting the scratch putts it off the green. Putt it off the green and it's a certain double bogey. Now add my hypothetical hole 5 and he's 4 over on two holes. Any self doubt creeping in or is the scratch a robot? That said there's no reason to believe the scratch hits it to the back of the green. Keep in mind, a slightly downhill lie, mid to short iron, to an elevated 3 tier green with a severe false front that we all knows can kill a chance to win a Masters title. Ask Greg Norman. Tall order to pull off a shot to the correct tier without too much spin playing under Sunday Tournament conditions never playing the course before. Don't you think?

> >

> > Going further, what are the potential disaster holes? I'd say potentially 1, 4, 5, possibly 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14 (insane green complex), maybe 16 if they have the case of hitting left.

>

> What if the scratch makes 3 or 4 birdies in his round? Makes a couple of longish putts and knocks a couple with 4 feet of the hole. You don't know what's going to happen in a round of golf.

>

> If you selected one scratch and had him play under the OP's conditions, odds are he wouldn't break 85. If you took 100 scratches and had them all play on the same day, the odds are astronomical that one or more of them would break 85. You'd be crazy to bet that all 100 would fail to break 85.

 

 

Now that would be awesome. Can it be done. Sure. So can a double/triple/quad. Hypothetical situations like this with no realistic means to an end leads to an endless stream of speculation with no means of solution. I'd love to see a group of several scratch golfers from all golfing demographics attempt this. I'm not scratch but would love to play The National under tournament conditions.

 

[bscinstnct]

Sunday conditions, no caddie, one hour to warm up, never seen the course.

 

Would a pga tour pro even break 80?

 

[cdnglf]

> @RobotDoctor said:

> And for all those who keep mentioning the course rating, if a course rating is 78 then that's what the scratch scores as "par". That means he can only be 7 over for the round. Isn't that how a course rating system works? If so, there is absolutely no chance a scratch playing ANGC for the first time from Masters tournament conditions cards and actual 79 (7 over). No chance.

 

No, that is not at all how it works. Scratch will shoot the course rating or better about 25% of the time.

 

 

[RobotDoctor]

> @cdnglf said:

> > @RobotDoctor said:

> > And for all those who keep mentioning the course rating, if a course rating is 78 then that's what the scratch scores as "par". That means he can only be 7 over for the round. Isn't that how a course rating system works? If so, there is absolutely no chance a scratch playing ANGC for the first time from Masters tournament conditions cards and actual 79 (7 over). No chance.

>

> No, that is not at all how it works. Scratch will shoot the course rating or better about 25% of the time.

>

>

 

Yes, that's right

[RobotDoctor]

> @bscinstnct said:

> Sunday conditions, no caddie, one hour to warm up, never seen the course.

>

> Would a pga tour pro even break 80?

>

 

 

Possibly, probably. A tour pro is generally a +5 or better. I'd bet a tour pro breaks 80 before a scratch breaks 85 under the original criteria.

[MtlJeff]

Imagine what the course rating of winged foot on Sunday conditions would be if Augusta is 85-86.... What would it be? 100?

 

Augusta is beloved because you can actually make birdies there.

[BNGL]

How could this person play with Sunday pressure having never played the course before? What about Thursday-Friday-Saturday?

[RobotDoctor]

> @MtlJeff said:

> Imagine what the course rating of winged foot on Sunday conditions would be if Augusta is 85-86.... What would it be? 100?

>

> Augusta is beloved because you can actually make birdies there.

 

Don't forget Oakmont. That's another brute of a course. The problem with these courses is that the USGA sets them up so even the best tour players will not break par. Not a fair comparison to The Masters where they don't make the course unplayable. At The Masters a well played shot is most always rewarded with a great outcome. How many times have we seen a great executed shot in the US Open result win a poor result. Far too many times these days. Pretty common place, sadly.

[RobotDoctor]

> @BNGL said:

> How could this person play with Sunday pressure having never played the course before? What about Thursday-Friday-Saturday?

 

 

This whole thread is based on a set of ridiculous criteria that just cannot happen. Change one or more criteria and we're all probably closer to agreement. That said, only the criteria set forth in the opening post is how I'm viewing this thread. If anyone wishes to change a goal post then another topic thread should be created stipulating the criteria for that discussion.

 

Regarding this thread, Thursday, Friday and Saturday is irrelevant. Just Sunday for the first time ANGC player.

[BNGL]

> @RobotDoctor said:

> > @BNGL said:

> > How could this person play with Sunday pressure having never played the course before? What about Thursday-Friday-Saturday?

>

>

> This whole thread is based on a set of ridiculous criteria that just cannot happen. Change one or more criteria and we're all probably closer to agreement. That said, only the criteria set forth in the opening post is how I'm viewing this thread. If anyone wishes to change a goal post then another topic thread should be created stipulating the criteria for that discussion.

>

> Regarding this thread, Thursday, Friday and Saturday is irrelevant. Just Sunday for the first time ANGC player.

 

Fair enough.

 

 

 

[BNGL]

> @RobotDoctor said:

> > @BNGL said:

> > How could this person play with Sunday pressure having never played the course before? What about Thursday-Friday-Saturday?

>

>

> This whole thread is based on a set of ridiculous criteria that just cannot happen. Change one or more criteria and we're all probably closer to agreement. That said, only the criteria set forth in the opening post is how I'm viewing this thread. If anyone wishes to change a goal post then another topic thread should be created stipulating the criteria for that discussion.

>

> Regarding this thread, Thursday, Friday and Saturday is irrelevant. Just Sunday for the first time ANGC player.

 

Ask and you shall receive...new topic created

 

 

 

 

[freddiec]

I think without seeing a golf course up close and personal (like me, I have not) and only on tv it’s difficult to realize how diabolic the course actually can play. Super long, long 2nd shots , often hybrids or 3 and 4 irons for most scratch players, greens that are crazy undulating , fall off that even make very good shots roll 30-40 feet away from the hole by design makes for a course unequal to just about anything else played by Sir scratch . Having really considered all this and crunching numbers highly unlikely, definitely possible but highly unlikely. These scratch players would record at least 7 to 10 more putts than their normal round. Consider a scratch players actual average score isn’t even par 72, but more like 75 on their normal home course. I don’t think so not at AN

[isaacbm]

I’m so intrigued by this thread.

 

The thing to me is that the Masters is the easiest of the majors by far. Put 100 scratch golfers on the us open or pga courses and we could legit see some rounds over 100. Augusta though? There’s no rough. None! I’ve seen one lost ball (outside water hazards) in 30 years of coverage!

 

Unless you genuinely think the rating is above 85 then of course it’s possible. It’s such a stupid question! POSSIBLE. For all you sticklers about the op’s original criteria, the question was POSSIBLE. That’s a pretty big word. It’s POSSIBLE the scratch breaks par.

 

It’s a golf course people. There’s no flame throwers or barb wire preventing you from walking onto the greens.

 

I personally am currently +1.4. I hover between a 0 and a plus 3. I haven’t shot over 81 in my last 3000 rounds in a row. You think there’s a better chance of me shooting over 90 then under 85? Lol! Please bring me these vanity cap scratches that can’t break 85 so I can quit my job and play them for money.

 

[dpb5031]

> @isaacbm said:

> I’m so intrigued by this thread.

>

> The thing to me is that the Masters is the easiest of the majors by far. Put 100 scratch golfers on the us open or pga courses and we could legit see some rounds over 100. Augusta though? There’s no rough. None! I’ve seen one lost ball (outside water hazards) in 30 years of coverage!

>

> Unless you genuinely think the rating is above 85 then of course it’s possible. It’s such a stupid question! POSSIBLE. For all you sticklers about the op’s original criteria, the question was POSSIBLE. That’s a pretty big word. It’s POSSIBLE the scratch breaks par.

>

> It’s a golf course people. There’s no flame throwers or barb wire preventing you from walking onto the greens.

>

> I personally am currently +1.4. I hover between a 0 and a plus 3. I haven’t shot over 81 in my last 3000 rounds in a row. You think there’s a better chance of me shooting over 90 then under 85? Lol! Please bring me these vanity cap scratches that can’t break 85 so I can quit my job and play them for money.

>

Exactly...well said!

[jdl]

OK, here's a better question: could a scratch golfer break 85 from the tips at the Blessings?

 

https://golfweek.com/2019/05/10/ncaa-championships-blessings-golf-club-a-worthy-challenge/

 

> The Blessings has a course rating of 80.9 and slope of 155 off the longest tees, marking it as among the most difficult golf courses in the world. The average slope rating for a U.S. course is 113. The men will play a par-72 setup at 7,501 yards, and the women will play a par-73 setup at 6,473 yards. Multiple tees can be used to adjust length throughout the events, especially if strong winds blow in from neighboring Oklahoma.

[MtlJeff]

> @isaacbm said:

> I’m so intrigued by this thread.

>

> The thing to me is that the Masters is the easiest of the majors by far. Put 100 scratch golfers on the us open or pga courses and we could legit see some rounds over 100. Augusta though? There’s no rough. None! I’ve seen one lost ball (outside water hazards) in 30 years of coverage!

>

> Unless you genuinely think the rating is above 85 then of course it’s possible. It’s such a stupid question! POSSIBLE. For all you sticklers about the op’s original criteria, the question was POSSIBLE. That’s a pretty big word. It’s POSSIBLE the scratch breaks par.

>

> It’s a golf course people. There’s no flame throwers or barb wire preventing you from walking onto the greens.

>

> I personally am currently +1.4. I hover between a 0 and a plus 3. I haven’t shot over 81 in my last 3000 rounds in a row. You think there’s a better chance of me shooting over 90 then under 85? Lol! Please bring me these vanity cap scratches that can’t break 85 so I can quit my job and play them for money.

>

 

I've never seen scratch in quotation marks as much as I have in this thread. Like every scratch is just some idiot lying about scores, or forgets how to hit a ball if away from his home course.

 

I've asked several times if we think the course rating is really 85, because I'm pretty sure that would be the highest rated course is the world by a decent margin

 

 

[farmer]

> @RobotDoctor said:

> > @bscinstnct said:

> > Sunday conditions, no caddie, one hour to warm up, never seen the course.

> >

> > Would a pga tour pro even break 80?

> >

>

>

> Possibly, probably. A tour pro is generally a +5 or better. I'd bet a tour pro breaks 80 before a scratch breaks 85 under the original criteria.

 

That would be a looong walk carrying a huge staff bag. Long walk with a Sunday bag and a push cart. Said it before, but this is a ridiculous premise. Could an airline pilot step into an F35 and fly it in combat?

[RobotDoctor]

> @farmer said:

> > @RobotDoctor said:

> > > @bscinstnct said:

> > > Sunday conditions, no caddie, one hour to warm up, never seen the course.

> > >

> > > Would a pga tour pro even break 80?

> > >

> >

> >

> > Possibly, probably. A tour pro is generally a +5 or better. I'd bet a tour pro breaks 80 before a scratch breaks 85 under the original criteria.

>

> That would be a looong walk carrying a huge staff bag. Long walk with a Sunday bag and a push cart. Said it before, but this is a ridiculous premise. Could an airline pilot step into an F35 and fly it in combat?

 

Definitely '86 the staff bag and go with a light carry bag. Then again when is ANGC going to let any golfer attempt this criteria. They're not. A tour pro would have a caddie and so would the mythical first time scratch player. Now the criteria has changed and maybe this thread can finally go away.

 

With regard to the airline pilot. Possibly. Remember, many a retired military pilot has become airline pilots. But if the airline pilot has never flown a F35 ummmmmmmm .......

 

;)

[farmer]

I was using the airline pilot as example, because I want to assume he's at least a scratch hdcp in flying terms. Upon reflection, I want him better than that.

[cdnglf]

> @farmer said:

> I was using the airline pilot as example, because I want to assume he's at least a scratch hdcp in flying terms. Upon reflection, I want him better than that.

 

Wtf is scratch hdcp in flying terms?

 

Why not just stick to scratch hdcp in golf terms, which is an actual thing.

[Kevinnz]

For an average unknown course without any insight as all, depending on the slope level typically i lose 2-3 shots playing conservatively. Given augusta course setup and condition, unless they setup the green as slippery as the masters, i have good faith of breaking 85. it is not a typically tricky course even though half of the 18 holes can be fairly difficult to save par, their par 3 are not terribly long and 3 of the par5s can be reached in 3 shots easily. My long game is fairly solid, driver gets me 240-250m (260-275y) carry and straight, irons are typically solid too. As long as I can avoid 3 putts breaking 85 isnt too hard, but 80 can be challenging but doable if my putter stays hot.