AT&T Pebble Beach

[deadsolid...shank]

Yep that's possible. A friend and I got beat several ago under the same circumstance. We had a ton of birdies, but on the same holes. We got beat by two guys with less holes, but on alternate holes. Sucks, but it happens.

 

The high level point in this is that winning is more than amateur playing good golf. It is doing it at the right time. Have 2 birdies a round when your pro gets a bogie and you are at -16 for the tournament. 2 adjusted birdies for a 13 isn't much of a stretch. Having them happen at the right time though is. That is were luck comes in. A 13 winning the tournament is likely to be playing slightly above his average (i.e. maybe gets 4 adjusted birdies/round instead of the expected 3) and then it is just a matter of if the birdies happen at the right time. It would be interesting to know how many natural birdies/pars this guy has had versus every other 10-15 in the field. Is he playing abnormally good (top 5% of expected results) or is he playing good (top 25% results) and being lucky.

 

But yeah the guys scores look really consistent. Maybe that is his game or the course he plays at.

 

I don't think we will get to see the am's card anywhere unless he puts it on IG...not seeing that happening!

 

But, at quick glance, it looks like the "13" contributed to the "Team" cause not too outrageously. Some of those net birdies could be a net eagle, but I doubt it. It just appeared from the numerous shots on Sunday he was playing out of his mind, as it does on Thursday, so perhaps he loves Pebble.

 

Thursday, PB - 6 net birdies in 14 holes

Friday, MPCC - 2 net birdies in 12 holes

Saturday, SH - 4 net birdies in 12 holes

Sunday, PB - 3 net birdies in 16 holes

He may have made net pars when Casey bogeyed as well. They don't all have to be net birdies to help the team score.

 

And how many holes just like #18 today. Casey makes the birdie (he made plenty) so he picks up without even finishing out. When he had a very reasonable putt for a net birdie.

[CasualLie]

I disagree with the comments that this year is the last chance Phil has at a US Open and that he'll never make it to 50 wins. The guy is gonna be relevant on the tour and in majors for many years to come. He can still move the ball and he's putting better now than at any point in his career, particularly the short ones that used to leave him snake-bitten.

 

I think the telling stat that has me not taking the 50 win bet is that this is his first win on US soil since 2013. And I do not like his chances at the US Open, even at Pebble, because add pinched in fairways and taller/thicker rough and many of his off line drives are not going to be easy to get on the green; especially with faster greens. Sure, he has a chance, this year, and or a few more, but these young bombers today don't have to be that hot with the putter to win.

 

Regardless, props to Phil for still getting wins in the twilight of his career.

[Shilgy]

Yep that's possible. A friend and I got beat several ago under the same circumstance. We had a ton of birdies, but on the same holes. We got beat by two guys with less holes, but on alternate holes. Sucks, but it happens.

 

The high level point in this is that winning is more than amateur playing good golf. It is doing it at the right time. Have 2 birdies a round when your pro gets a bogie and you are at -16 for the tournament. 2 adjusted birdies for a 13 isn't much of a stretch. Having them happen at the right time though is. That is were luck comes in. A 13 winning the tournament is likely to be playing slightly above his average (i.e. maybe gets 4 adjusted birdies/round instead of the expected 3) and then it is just a matter of if the birdies happen at the right time. It would be interesting to know how many natural birdies/pars this guy has had versus every other 10-15 in the field. Is he playing abnormally good (top 5% of expected results) or is he playing good (top 25% results) and being lucky.

 

But yeah the guys scores look really consistent. Maybe that is his game or the course he plays at.

 

I don't think we will get to see the am's card anywhere unless he puts it on IG...not seeing that happening!

 

But, at quick glance, it looks like the "13" contributed to the "Team" cause not too outrageously. Some of those net birdies could be a net eagle, but I doubt it. It just appeared from the numerous shots on Sunday he was playing out of his mind, as it does on Thursday, so perhaps he loves Pebble.

 

Thursday, PB - 6 net birdies in 14 holes

Friday, MPCC - 2 net birdies in 12 holes

Saturday, SH - 4 net birdies in 12 holes

Sunday, PB - 3 net birdies in 16 holes

He may have made net pars when Casey bogeyed as well. They don't all have to be net birdies to help the team score.

 

And how many holes just like #18 today. Casey makes the birdie (he made plenty) so he picks up without even finishing out. When he had a very reasonable putt for a net birdie.

Sure-and how many holes where he picked up on the way to triple or worse?

[deadsolid...shank]

 

Yep that's possible. A friend and I got beat several ago under the same circumstance. We had a ton of birdies, but on the same holes. We got beat by two guys with less holes, but on alternate holes. Sucks, but it happens.

 

 

The high level point in this is that winning is more than amateur playing good golf. It is doing it at the right time. Have 2 birdies a round when your pro gets a bogie and you are at -16 for the tournament. 2 adjusted birdies for a 13 isn't much of a stretch. Having them happen at the right time though is. That is were luck comes in. A 13 winning the tournament is likely to be playing slightly above his average (i.e. maybe gets 4 adjusted birdies/round instead of the expected 3) and then it is just a matter of if the birdies happen at the right time. It would be interesting to know how many natural birdies/pars this guy has had versus every other 10-15 in the field. Is he playing abnormally good (top 5% of expected results) or is he playing good (top 25% results) and being lucky.

 

But yeah the guys scores look really consistent. Maybe that is his game or the course he plays at.

 

I don't think we will get to see the am's card anywhere unless he puts it on IG...not seeing that happening!

 

But, at quick glance, it looks like the "13" contributed to the "Team" cause not too outrageously. Some of those net birdies could be a net eagle, but I doubt it. It just appeared from the numerous shots on Sunday he was playing out of his mind, as it does on Thursday, so perhaps he loves Pebble.

 

Thursday, PB - 6 net birdies in 14 holes

Friday, MPCC - 2 net birdies in 12 holes

Saturday, SH - 4 net birdies in 12 holes

Sunday, PB - 3 net birdies in 16 holes

He may have made net pars when Casey bogeyed as well. They don't all have to be net birdies to help the team score.

 

And how many holes just like #18 today. Casey makes the birdie (he made plenty) so he picks up without even finishing out. When he had a very reasonable putt for a net birdie.

Sure-and how many holes where he picked up on the way to triple or worse?

 

Yeah, he looked like he had a lot of triples, or worse.

 

Always the defender. Did you look at the handicap card that was posted? Look kosher to you? You know, often, when there is smoke......well, you know the rest.

[tbowles411]

Kudos to Phil for winning....but what does Paul Casey have to do to close out tournaments? Final rounds always smack him in the face.

[golfer07840]

Someone in this thread has asked about the winning AM and his 13 handicap. A lot of people saying he's sandbagging and even found him on GHIN with a 15 hdcp; but also was asking how his scores compared to the Pope Of Slope numbers.

 

Well, I crunched said numbers and while I don't have the AM scorecard (it's not on the PGA site) I can't tell what his gross score was. BUT, I did use the rating/slope for all 3 courses from the white tees and than figured out his course handicap.

 

According to the numbers, our mysterious 13 handicap, if he played to his handicap (which, according to the Pope of Slope, is only done once every 5 rounds or so), he would have shot at Pebble, 87, Spyglass 86 and MPCC - Shore Course 82 (the exact numbers worked out to .6 after, but we don't round up).

 

So you guys be the judge. Was he out there at Pebble shooting 87? My eyes tell me no way.

[gvogel]

Someone in this thread has asked about the winning AM and his 13 handicap. A lot of people saying he's sandbagging and even found him on GHIN with a 15 hdcp; but also was asking how his scores compared to the Pope Of Slope numbers.

 

Well, I crunched said numbers and while I don't have the AM scorecard (it's not on the PGA site) I can't tell what his gross score was. BUT, I did use the rating/slope for all 3 courses from the white tees and than figured out his course handicap.

 

According to the numbers, our mysterious 13 handicap, if he played to his handicap (which, according to the Pope of Slope, is only done once every 5 rounds or so), he would have shot at Pebble, 87, Spyglass 86 and MPCC - Shore Course 82 (the exact numbers worked out to .6 after, but we don't round up).

 

So you guys be the judge. Was he out there at Pebble shooting 87? My eyes tell me no way.

 

Got a feeling that when he tees it up next year at this event, he won't be listed as a 13.

[Forged4ever]

Got to say, I am hugely impressed with Phil thus far in 2019.

 

I had written him off after his play turned terrible following on from the win in Mexico last March but he has come into 2019 with his A Game it would seem. He should have won at the Bob Hope and I realise that 2 holes to play is still plenty of time for Phil (in particular) to mess up but I can't see it happening. He said after the win in Mexico that he would get to 50 wins before he is done, I still can't see that happening but I doubted that he would get even one more.

 

Phil's entire career has been that way. He's never been world #1, he's never won more than 4 times on tour, he goes from playing the best golf in the world to MC. He makes more biridies than anyone then he makes tons of "others".

 

It's just Phil being Phil....he'll probably win an event at 55 and miss the next 5 cuts.

 

I think that's a good take on Phil except for the missed cut part. Phil hasn't miss a lot of cuts in his career compared to other stars not named Tiger. I think because he's Phil, we notice them more.

Yea, for his inconsistency in the course, he’s been very consistent regarding stickin around for the weekends though 2017 was a rough year as he missed two cuts in majors, with the PGA Championship bein his first missed in that Major in over 20+ years, I forget the exact number, lol. I’m glad that he brought it home and it’s a great tourney to win cuz it’s a mentally taxing tourney cuz of the circus like atmosphere surrounding it and he’s still got the mental game and focus to get it done so as long as he’s healthy, he’s dangerous and always a factor!

 

I can’t believe that I’m sayin all this about FIGJAM Jr, lmao

 

Next thing I’m gonna be slobberin on about Norman bein a great guy??

 

Have a nice week Gents?

RP

[rangersgoalie]

Phil's US Open finishes at Pebble Beach

 

1992: MC

2000: T16th

2010: T4th

 

Just divide by 4 again

[bladehunter]

Kudos to Phil for winning....but what does Paul Casey have to do to close out tournaments? Final rounds always smack him in the face.

 

Shoot under par. That’s all it is. He will go out Hitting irons off tees and making pars. That doesn’t cut it anymore.

[dlygrisse]

Hypothetically how could Phil lose? Most likely scenario would be on 17 he gets a bogey to Casey's birdie to cut the margin to 1 and than on 18 Casey birdies to Mickeksons par to force a tie and than Casey wins in a playoff. More likely scenario is is both par the 17th and than Phil tees off with iron on 18 and pars for the win. If I was off work I would head down to watch and than do some hiking around 17 mile drive since it is free to get in today. Phil needs to git er done. Go Phil!

There is obviously a much greater than not chance Phil wins.

 

Biggest thing may be Phil's putter. This can come and go for someone his age day to day. On the full swings, he just needs to keep it on the course but I'd hate from him to have two 4-5 footers for par combined with a Casey birdie or two.

 

I hope he wins too but you never know until it's over. He's done things in the past that didn't seem possible.

I think it's to Phil's advantage that they stopped playing last night. Casey only wins if Phil has a disaster hole. Much easier to have a disaster hole when you're playing in the dark. I understand Phil probably wanted to fly home last night, but I think his chances of winning are better going back out there this morning and playing smart for 2 holes.

 

I don't think it will matter, but he was in a zone and liked his chances of a good tee shot and good putting on 17. He just wanted that iron in the fairway on 18 . . . .

 

I think he'd have sealed the deal last night and he knew Casey was already uncomfortable. Again, not a big deal to wait and he knew he wasn't getting done, but, not being the biggest Phil fan, I enjoyed the way he was playing his hand, so to speak, until Paul finally called it quits (which he should have).

I'm surprised Phil keeps saying the "right things" in interviews (here and the 2014 PGA Championship with Rory hitting up twice).

 

Obviously, it is a big deal to him, as you can see the fumes coming out of his head.

 

Maybe he's just making a smart "business decision" (sponsors, etc) but there's definitely been times when he's not shy.

 

Although we all know Phil would be doing the exact opposite in both cases had his position been reversed...

 

It was the right thing for Phil to do in this case. In Rory's case it was complete BS, IMO it potentially changed the outcome of a major. While Phil at first was PO'd, because he couldn't convince Paul to play on....he took a deep breath and got over it, Rory acted like a child and basically played out of turn. I lost a LOT of respect for Rory that day.

[bladehunter]

Phil's US Open finishes at Pebble Beach

 

1992: MC

2000: T16th

2010: T4th

 

Just divide by 4 again

 

See. The signs are lining up.

[bladehunter]

Dlygrisse -

 

 

 

Yep. I literally yelled at my own TV set. Stupidest thing I’ve ever seen. They tricked Phil and Rickie into that. If they hadn’t let them tee off he wouldn’t have finished and Phil wouldn’t have been rushed. Who knows what happens.

 

I have zero doubt that Phil agreeing to let them tee off did not include them hitting up to the green and having to wait on that.

[95124hacker]

Phil should play in Mexico, hire a local caddy and pay him $3000 after he wins... but wait, Phil’s known to be a generous tipper. I bet he’d pay 10%...

[straightshot7]

Is it just me or did Phil stop doing that thing where he was picking the club head straight up 6 inches before starting his back swing? It seemed like a totally unnecessary move and may have served him well to remove it.

 

He seems to be driving it better than ever.

[golfer07840]

Someone in this thread has asked about the winning AM and his 13 handicap. A lot of people saying he's sandbagging and even found him on GHIN with a 15 hdcp; but also was asking how his scores compared to the Pope Of Slope numbers.

 

Well, I crunched said numbers and while I don't have the AM scorecard (it's not on the PGA site) I can't tell what his gross score was. BUT, I did use the rating/slope for all 3 courses from the white tees and than figured out his course handicap.

 

According to the numbers, our mysterious 13 handicap, if he played to his handicap (which, according to the Pope of Slope, is only done once every 5 rounds or so), he would have shot at Pebble, 87, Spyglass 86 and MPCC - Shore Course 82 (the exact numbers worked out to .6 after, but we don't round up).

 

So you guys be the judge. Was he out there at Pebble shooting 87? My eyes tell me no way.

 

Got a feeling that when he tees it up next year at this event, he won't be listed as a 13.

 

What I found interesting running those numbers, was that Spyglass Hill was a stroke easier from the white tees than Pebble Beach. Yet, for the pro's, seems that Spyglass is harder.

[dwboston]

Yep that's possible. A friend and I got beat several ago under the same circumstance. We had a ton of birdies, but on the same holes. We got beat by two guys with less holes, but on alternate holes. Sucks, but it happens.

 

The high level point in this is that winning is more than amateur playing good golf. It is doing it at the right time. Have 2 birdies a round when your pro gets a bogie and you are at -16 for the tournament. 2 adjusted birdies for a 13 isn't much of a stretch. Having them happen at the right time though is. That is were luck comes in. A 13 winning the tournament is likely to be playing slightly above his average (i.e. maybe gets 4 adjusted birdies/round instead of the expected 3) and then it is just a matter of if the birdies happen at the right time. It would be interesting to know how many natural birdies/pars this guy has had versus every other 10-15 in the field. Is he playing abnormally good (top 5% of expected results) or is he playing good (top 25% results) and being lucky.

 

But yeah the guys scores look really consistent. Maybe that is his game or the course he plays at.

 

I don't think we will get to see the am's card anywhere unless he puts it on IG...not seeing that happening!

 

But, at quick glance, it looks like the "13" contributed to the "Team" cause not too outrageously. Some of those net birdies could be a net eagle, but I doubt it. It just appeared from the numerous shots on Sunday he was playing out of his mind, as it does on Thursday, so perhaps he loves Pebble.

 

Thursday, PB - 6 net birdies in 14 holes

Friday, MPCC - 2 net birdies in 12 holes

Saturday, SH - 4 net birdies in 12 holes

Sunday, PB - 3 net birdies in 16 holes

He may have made net pars when Casey bogeyed as well. They don't all have to be net birdies to help the team score.

 

Casey only had 4 bogies in the entire tournament.

[Rangeballz]

Phil should play in Mexico, hire a local caddy and pay him $3000 after he wins... but wait, Phil's known to be a generous tipper. I bet he'd pay 10%...

 

I knew this thread would eventually circle back to Kuchar.

[Obee]

I disagree with the comments that this year is the last chance Phil has at a US Open and that he'll never make it to 50 wins. The guy is gonna be relevant on the tour and in majors for many years to come. He can still move the ball and he's putting better now than at any point in his career, particularly the short ones that used to leave him snake-bitten.

 

100% this. Would not surprise me if he wins a major at 53 or 54. Or even later, if he decides to keep playing.

 

And you are right on about the putting. The claw completely changed him and Justin Rose both.

[Shilgy]

Someone in this thread has asked about the winning AM and his 13 handicap. A lot of people saying he's sandbagging and even found him on GHIN with a 15 hdcp; but also was asking how his scores compared to the Pope Of Slope numbers.

 

Well, I crunched said numbers and while I don't have the AM scorecard (it's not on the PGA site) I can't tell what his gross score was. BUT, I did use the rating/slope for all 3 courses from the white tees and than figured out his course handicap.

 

According to the numbers, our mysterious 13 handicap, if he played to his handicap (which, according to the Pope of Slope, is only done once every 5 rounds or so), he would have shot at Pebble, 87, Spyglass 86 and MPCC - Shore Course 82 (the exact numbers worked out to .6 after, but we don't round up).

 

So you guys be the judge. Was he out there at Pebble shooting 87? My eyes tell me no way.

How does anyone know what he shot each day. I cannot find the information. We only saw him play on the holes his net score bettered Casey. Also noticed a lot of greens he was not even putting.

[jmvargas]

I am really impressed at what Phil is doing at his age...

 

it also seems to reinforce my long time belief that a longer swing will always age better vs a shorter one as you get older..

 

now all he has to do is the win the US Open in June to complete a stellar career which except for one other player could easily be the best among the active players right now..

[Shilgy]

Yep that's possible. A friend and I got beat several ago under the same circumstance. We had a ton of birdies, but on the same holes. We got beat by two guys with less holes, but on alternate holes. Sucks, but it happens.

 

The high level point in this is that winning is more than amateur playing good golf. It is doing it at the right time. Have 2 birdies a round when your pro gets a bogie and you are at -16 for the tournament. 2 adjusted birdies for a 13 isn't much of a stretch. Having them happen at the right time though is. That is were luck comes in. A 13 winning the tournament is likely to be playing slightly above his average (i.e. maybe gets 4 adjusted birdies/round instead of the expected 3) and then it is just a matter of if the birdies happen at the right time. It would be interesting to know how many natural birdies/pars this guy has had versus every other 10-15 in the field. Is he playing abnormally good (top 5% of expected results) or is he playing good (top 25% results) and being lucky.

 

But yeah the guys scores look really consistent. Maybe that is his game or the course he plays at.

 

I don't think we will get to see the am's card anywhere unless he puts it on IG...not seeing that happening!

 

But, at quick glance, it looks like the "13" contributed to the "Team" cause not too outrageously. Some of those net birdies could be a net eagle, but I doubt it. It just appeared from the numerous shots on Sunday he was playing out of his mind, as it does on Thursday, so perhaps he loves Pebble.

 

Thursday, PB - 6 net birdies in 14 holes

Friday, MPCC - 2 net birdies in 12 holes

Saturday, SH - 4 net birdies in 12 holes

Sunday, PB - 3 net birdies in 16 holes

He may have made net pars when Casey bogeyed as well. They don't all have to be net birdies to help the team score.

 

Casey only had 4 bogies in the entire tournament.

What distance was the Am portion played from? Seems to me the Am from Colorado(?) that they mentioned this morning seems even more off. A 3 handicap improved his pro's scores by six a day or something like that. He got the trophy for "best" am.

[Jackhammer993]

Congratulations to Phil!!’ 5 time winner of the AT&T. So happy. To me this was a much more satisfying win than Rickie winning last week. That’s the way to play a final round, in the final group and shoots the lowest round( at least I think). Just really impressed. Casey got his solo second so all good and seems like no hard feelings on either side.

[golfer07840]

Someone in this thread has asked about the winning AM and his 13 handicap. A lot of people saying he's sandbagging and even found him on GHIN with a 15 hdcp; but also was asking how his scores compared to the Pope Of Slope numbers.

 

Well, I crunched said numbers and while I don't have the AM scorecard (it's not on the PGA site) I can't tell what his gross score was. BUT, I did use the rating/slope for all 3 courses from the white tees and than figured out his course handicap.

 

According to the numbers, our mysterious 13 handicap, if he played to his handicap (which, according to the Pope of Slope, is only done once every 5 rounds or so), he would have shot at Pebble, 87, Spyglass 86 and MPCC - Shore Course 82 (the exact numbers worked out to .6 after, but we don't round up).

 

So you guys be the judge. Was he out there at Pebble shooting 87? My eyes tell me no way.

How does anyone know what he shot each day. I cannot find the information. We only saw him play on the holes his net score bettered Casey. Also noticed a lot of greens he was not even putting.

 

I don't think we do. But based on the amount of quality shots he was hitting, under pressure with the final group, I sincerely doubt he's a 13 HDCP.

 

Which I think is everyone's point.

 

However, I am genuinely curious as to what he did shoot.

[Golfnutgalen]

Is it just me or did Phil stop doing that thing where he was picking the club head straight up 6 inches before starting his back swing? It seemed like a totally unnecessary move and may have served him well to remove it.

 

He seems to be driving it better than ever.

 

He's definitely picking it up a bit still, not as noticeable though maybe 3 inches or so.

[golfer07840]

Its easy to sit at home at call FedEx guy a sandbagger but obviously CBS isn't going to air his duck hooks, shanks, and chili dips. He was hitting the ball solid but hard to judge if you're not walking with his group.

 

Fair point. But seeing the quality of shots he did hit that they did show (and there were several), does it jive to you with the list of posted scores?

 

He's only got an 11 shot range between high and low scores as a 15? It reminds me of the 15 I played against who had 3 sand saves on the front 9 in a team match play match.

 

Exactly the point I made earlier. I would be curious as to the spread in scores most people have in relation to their cap.

 

I'm a 16.9 and my last 20 rounds have a spread of 14 strokes.

[TheMoneyShot]

So happy for Phil, what a great win today!

[Cwebb]

Phil is seriously dangerous in all the majors this season. Would be awesome to see him do the double and get the U.S Open at Pebble Beach

[Forged4ever]

He seems to be driving it better than ever.

He was at 312ypd through 3 rounds and good for 6th(Can you friggin believe that five guys averaged more than that, lol???) and dialed it back yesterday to finish at 304.4 for 24th spot, so he can still send it deep when necessary.

 

Have a nice day Bro?

RP

[golfer07840]

I live on the west coast too and it was pretty dark here and I'm further west than Pebble Beach. Don't forget to factor in cloud cover as well. I'm going to side with the TV guys who were there.

 

How are you west of Pebble. Do you live on a boat? :swoon:

 

He's also listed as living in Oregon. So he's much further north, therefore it gets dark earlier. I am in NJ and I lose sun a good half hour sooner than my buddy in the Tampa, FL area. Unless he thinks the Earth is flat? :stink: